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Most lottery players never see big payoff

Topic closed. 38 replies. Last post 9 years ago by LOTTOMIKE.

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justxploring's avatar - villiarna
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Posted: December 17, 2007, 7:44 pm - IP Logged

"You've got a 401(k)? You're gambling. Got stocks? You're gambling."

The main dfferences between stocks and lottery are stigma and rates of return. 

A 401(k) is only risky if the employee invests in the company stock (like Enron) or a mutual fund that doesn't perform well and his portfolio isn't adequately diversified.  Usually he/she has a choice and can pick a fixed annuity and/or bonds as well.  Even if the investment is conservative, 4% or 5% over time is better than nothing, especially if a company offers to match contributions.  A little more risky, but relatively conservative, portfolio of stocks will usually average 8% over 25 years.  If you buy lottery tickets for 25 years and don't win anything, you just have a shoebox filled with lottery tickets.  But I'm a gambler, so I'm hoping I can afford new shoes soon!  :-)

Coin Toss  -  Funny you should mention that!  Seemed as if every time I said no to "insurance?" I lost! 

KY Floyd wrote:  Didn't this article come out last week in The Daily ObviousLOL

    Tenaj's avatar - michellea
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    Posted: December 17, 2007, 7:47 pm - IP Logged

    "You've got a 401(k)? You're gambling. Got stocks? You're gambling."

    The main dfferences between stocks and lottery are stigma and rates of return. 

    I Agree!

    takeemtothebank

      JAP69's avatar - alas
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      Posted: December 17, 2007, 7:49 pm - IP Logged

      A few dollars for education and a shot that it could be your day.

      Like he said he has student loans to pay off. So why not lighten the financial load of those that want a higher education.

      WHATT

        JAP69's avatar - alas
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        Posted: December 17, 2007, 8:04 pm - IP Logged

        This is a story about a S.C. player and the S.C. lottery.

        With that said. S.C. high School students have one of the highest dropout rates in The U.S.. That trend needs to be reversed as there are fewer jobs available year after year for dropouts.  There are more and more jobs becoming available as industries move into in S.C. that require a higher education.

        South Carolina is on an upward trend economcaly and the education levels needs to move in the same direction.

        WHATT

          time*treat's avatar - radar

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          Posted: December 17, 2007, 8:34 pm - IP Logged

          A 401(k) is only risky if the employee invests in the company stock (like Enron) or a mutual fund that doesn't perform well and his portfolio isn't adequately diversified.  Usually he/she has a choice and can pick a fixed annuity and/or bonds as well.  Even if the investment is conservative, 4% or 5% over time is better than nothing, especially if a company offers to match contributions.  A little more risky, but relatively conservative, portfolio of stocks will usually average 8% over 25 years.  If you buy lottery tickets for 25 years and don't win anything, you just have a shoebox filled with lottery tickets.  But I'm a gambler, so I'm hoping I can afford new shoes soon!  :-)

          Coin Toss  -  Funny you should mention that!  Seemed as if every time I said no to "insurance?" I lost! 

          KY Floyd wrote:  Didn't this article come out last week in The Daily ObviousLOL

          Where does the money come from to pay you 4 or 5%? 

          What is your rate of return if you are paid 4 or 5% nominal return, while actual inflation (loss of purchasing power) is 8%? Here's a hint, it's less than zero.

          Now, many people buy the big lie about how purchasing the Dow 30 components in some given year and holding on over so many years would return so much percent. This is garbage. When a Dow company falls on hard times, it gets taken out of the index and replaced with a successful company. The index average value, however, is not changed. In any other industry this would be fraud. 

          ~~~~ 

          A lottery is only risky if the player invests in the daily or a jackpot game that doesn't perform well and his wheel isn't adequately diversified.  Usually he/she has a choice and can pick a scratch-off and/or raffle as well.  Even if the player is conservative, 4% or 5% over time is better than nothing, especially if a game offers free quick picks.  A little more risky, but relatively conservative, system of playing will usually average 8% over 25 years. If you buy stocks and mutual funds for 25 years and don't profit, you just have a shoebox filled with brokerage statements. Clown

          In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
          Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

            ShowAlaThe$'s avatar - scene sunovermountains.jpg
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            Posted: December 17, 2007, 9:19 pm - IP Logged

            Regardless of the odds, SOMEBODY IS GOING TO WIN, and the only person guaranteed not to win is the person without a ticket.

              go4it-andwin's avatar - drevil
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              Posted: December 17, 2007, 10:19 pm - IP Logged

              I agree totally...think of all the people who say "im not going to win" and the next day theyre buying new houses and cars.... I think people with a gambling problem should refrain from lottery games, but for others who know self control, have fun and take a chance at fortune.. Everydrawing that goes by and i miss it totally, i just say "at least i tried".  Maybe one day ill be in for a pleasant suprise.  As for now, im not counting my chickens till the eggs hatch!  I know ill keep trying till my last breathe of air, why? because i want the chance to have my dreams come true.. Till then ill just be a working class guy!

              with a prayer and 6 lucky numbers...im beach bound!

                BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
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                Posted: December 18, 2007, 12:08 am - IP Logged

                Let me expound a bit on "designed to destroy you".

                By that I mean the house edge, regardles of the game, is always going to prove itself out. 

                I'm sure there's people here (LP) that don't spend on lotto in a month what some other people spend on one night out.

                Those aren't the kind of people I'm talking about.

                I'm talking about someone, that for whatever reason, one day decides they have got a game beat. Those are the ones that are going to get destroyed by the house edge.

                Think about the game of Blackjack. Everyone who has ever written a Blackjack book says never take insurance. Well, the stats they use to back that up are based on millions and millions of hands. no one is going to play that many hands. 

                Someone who just read that goes to Vegas and this is the one time in their life they're betting $100 on a hand of cards and the dealer looks at them and asks, "Insruance?"

                And that's blackjack, a game with a very low house edge.

                People get slaughtered with 6 & 8 dice systems, betting the Don't, etc.... and yet people think they're going to consistently beat a lotto game?

                Any form of gambling is as much the ego business as it is the gambling and entertainment business.

                The casino is designed to destroy you and they do it with a 5% or smaller house edge.  It is like a roller coaster ride with lots of ups and downs, but always trending toward ground zero at the end of the ride.

                I've always considered it a mistake to compare the big lottery games with casino games because with lottery you only need to win once to recover your entire investment and become a multi-millionaire.

                With the lottery we have the oppertunity to make our own luck.  We pick the numbers, we decide how many tickets to play and when we play them.  It is the choices WE make that determine whether we win or lose. 

                Every week the lottery makes dozens of people millionaires across this great country of ours.  It is possible to win the lottery, people do it all the time.   

                BobP

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                  Posted: December 18, 2007, 12:47 am - IP Logged

                  What the story needs to also make clear is that, sometimes you do match all of the numbers and still not see a big payout because other people also matched all the numbers.

                  I don't expect that a win will change my life, but I've matched 5 of 5 before via my own system so it's possible to happen again with hopefully a better payout. For now I am happy if a win gets me a new TV set or even a visit to TGI Friday's.

                  If everyone who played at some point won a big jackpot, then everyone would have so much money that demand on products would be overwhelming and shortages would be commonplace, gas would be $500/gallon, milk $600/gallon, and that's if you could find anyone still wanting to serve you due to also a severe labor shortage. Can you say "Zimbabwe"? Somebody has to make the donuts. The only way to produce a $million winner is to have 2 million $1 losers.

                  When you buy a ticket and lose you contribute to the extreme joy of the one or few people that win!

                    Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
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                    Posted: December 18, 2007, 10:44 am - IP Logged

                    Stocks = a return on your money, an 8% return on a security is 8% of what you invested, the investment still being there!, or you sell and get the original invstment and the 8% back.  

                    Playing $1,000 a year and cashing winning tickets for $100, let's say, does in no way, shape, or form, mean you had a 10% return, it means you blew $900. Big difference.  

                    Lotto = a return as a portion of your money, and that's all folks, the original money went to the lotto. And the examples given in this thread are very doubtful, highly optimistic and over rated.. A very, very few people get "struck by lightning" (hit a jackpot), and as LckyLary stated above, everyone else contributed to that jackpot. Most of the lower tier prizes just go right back into the lotto.

                    Thinking of lotto as a savings account or any form of gambling as an investmnent is heading for trouble.

                    Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                    Lep

                    There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                      konane's avatar - wallace
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                      Posted: December 18, 2007, 12:32 pm - IP Logged

                      "You've got a 401(k)? You're gambling. Got stocks? You're gambling."

                      The main dfferences between stocks and lottery are stigma and rates of return. 

                        I Agree!    Playing the lottery you're in control of where your dollars go rather than allowing someone else to "invest" it in your behalf.

                      Good luck to everyone!

                        Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
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                        Posted: December 18, 2007, 1:27 pm - IP Logged

                          I Agree!    Playing the lottery you're in control of where your dollars go rather than allowing someone else to "invest" it in your behalf.

                        You don't invest $1 or $2 or chump change in stocks.

                        Anyone who plays lotto to the extent that they could have invested that much needs some serious help. 

                        Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                        Lep

                        There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                          time*treat's avatar - radar

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                          Posted: December 18, 2007, 4:37 pm - IP Logged

                          You don't invest $1 or $2 or chump change in stocks.

                          Anyone who plays lotto to the extent that they could have invested that much needs some serious help. 

                          Unless they win. If they lose, they won't need any more help than the people who owned Enron, Worldcom, Global Crossing, KMart, or any of the lesser known companies that get delisted every week. They will, however, get more sympathy. But, last I checked, that had no monetary value.Wink

                          I know some are chomping at the bit to tell me that Kmart is still in business. Well, the KMart shares that were owned when the company went into bankruptcy were canceled and are not the same Kmart shares that exist as part of Sears Holdings, today. Like two different people with the same name.Cheers 

                          In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                          Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

                            konane's avatar - wallace
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                            Posted: December 18, 2007, 4:55 pm - IP Logged

                            Unless they win. If they lose, they won't need any more help than the people who owned Enron, Worldcom, Global Crossing, KMart, or any of the lesser known companies that get delisted every week. They will, however, get more sympathy. But, last I checked, that had no monetary value.Wink

                            I know some are chomping at the bit to tell me that Kmart is still in business. Well, the KMart shares that were owned when the company went into bankruptcy were canceled and are not the same Kmart shares that exist as part of Sears Holdings, today. Like two different people with the same name.Cheers 

                            I Agree!   Same with Delta, stockholders took a bath when stock was canceled coming out of bankruptcy.  They reissued anew now doing pretty well.

                            Also what about mutual funds which "spread" risk which have lost money due to sub-prime mortgage investments at the hands of "astute" brokers who socked investors' money into them?  Those "astute" brokers collected commissions which was their #1 agenda.

                            Frankly if I'm going to lose any money I'd rather do it myself ... win or lose .... and have only myself to blame for mistakes.  The lottery provides just that.

                            Good luck to everyone!

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                              Posted: December 18, 2007, 5:19 pm - IP Logged

                              I agree it takes a village.  Just not the kind of village Hillary Clinton would create.

                              I have to agree 100% with this statement!

                              And the fact, that if, Hillary was elected as president of the United States, I will seriously consider leaving the country!

                              PukeEven the thought of it makes me want to