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New Florida Lotto playslips a bother to some

Topic closed. 34 replies. Last post 9 years ago by Badger.

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NY
United States
Member #23835
October 16, 2005
3544 Posts
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 Posted: March 16, 2008, 4:45 am - IP Logged

The \$15 million, just like the money for every other lottery prize, comes from all of the tickets that have to be sold to get a winner. Any game with a minimum payout might  lose money (or make less than anticipated) on any individual drawing, but probability guarantees that they will make  almost exactly what they expect in the long run.

The odds of winning the Florida game are are roughly 1 in 23 million, so they can expect to sell 23 million tickets for every ticket that wins the jackpot. That's true for the base jackpot and the bonus jackpots.  Suppose 1/3 of tickets play only the base jackpot, 1/3 of the tickets play the \$10 million bonus and 1/3 play the \$25 million bonus. The expected result after selling 69 million tickets would be 3 winning tickets. 1/3 of those 3 would have played and won only the base jackpot, 1/3 would have played and won the base and the \$10 million bonus, and 1/3 would have played and won the base and the \$25 million bonus.

It's no different than a game that only sells chances at a \$25 million jackpot, charging \$2 for a 1 in 23 million chance of winning. Sometimes they'll sell only 5 or 10 million tickets and get a winner, and other times they'll sell 40 or 50 million tickets before getting a winner. On average they'll sell 23 million tickets for each winner. Selling 23 million tickets at \$2 each brings in \$46 million, which leaves a lot of profit after paying out \$15 million.

FWIW, the the PB run that ended tonight sold about 463 million tickets before producing tonight's winner. That more than makes up for the occasions where they pay out a \$7 million jackpot when somebody wins on first drawing that only sold 10 million tickets.

Kentucky
United States
Member #32652
February 14, 2006
7456 Posts
Offline
 Posted: March 17, 2008, 4:42 pm - IP Logged

The \$15 million, just like the money for every other lottery prize, comes from all of the tickets that have to be sold to get a winner. Any game with a minimum payout might  lose money (or make less than anticipated) on any individual drawing, but probability guarantees that they will make  almost exactly what they expect in the long run.

The odds of winning the Florida game are are roughly 1 in 23 million, so they can expect to sell 23 million tickets for every ticket that wins the jackpot. That's true for the base jackpot and the bonus jackpots.  Suppose 1/3 of tickets play only the base jackpot, 1/3 of the tickets play the \$10 million bonus and 1/3 play the \$25 million bonus. The expected result after selling 69 million tickets would be 3 winning tickets. 1/3 of those 3 would have played and won only the base jackpot, 1/3 would have played and won the base and the \$10 million bonus, and 1/3 would have played and won the base and the \$25 million bonus.

It's no different than a game that only sells chances at a \$25 million jackpot, charging \$2 for a 1 in 23 million chance of winning. Sometimes they'll sell only 5 or 10 million tickets and get a winner, and other times they'll sell 40 or 50 million tickets before getting a winner. On average they'll sell 23 million tickets for each winner. Selling 23 million tickets at \$2 each brings in \$46 million, which leaves a lot of profit after paying out \$15 million.

FWIW, the the PB run that ended tonight sold about 463 million tickets before producing tonight's winner. That more than makes up for the occasions where they pay out a \$7 million jackpot when somebody wins on first drawing that only sold 10 million tickets.

I was looking at it as two games, one where the payoff depends on the play and one with a fixed payoff. The lottery has already factored in the affect on the profits so I doubt they would even offer the bonuses if they thought the profits would go down. The profit percentage will probably go down but with more sales overall profits should be higher.

NY
United States
Member #23835
October 16, 2005
3544 Posts
Offline
 Posted: March 18, 2008, 3:07 am - IP Logged

In many ways it's three games. There's the base level jackpot, the \$10 million bonus and the \$15 million bonus.  You can play game 1 by itself, but inorder to play game 2 you have to play game 1. To play game 3 you have to play game 2.

I would assume the lottery put some effort into the effect the new game will have, but it's also possible they're just figuring they can't really lose. About the worst that will happen is that almost nobody will play the bonus levels, and they'll be stuck with some marketing and startup costs. There's a chance that there will be a winner before they've sold enough tickets to cover the bonus prizes, but how likely that is depends on how many tickets are sold. The more likely it is to happen, the less their exposure, because they'll have collected more money. The likely outcome is that they'll make a substantial profit each time they have to pay the bonus. Assuming they keep the bonus and the long term result is that it does what probability suggests their percentage will go up. Collecting \$46 million each time you pay \$15 million gives you a profit of 67%. I'm assuming the regular lotto game is about 50%.

Gurnee, Illinois
United States
Member #49731
February 12, 2007
922 Posts
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 Posted: March 22, 2008, 11:23 am - IP Logged

Yahoo!  I am going to have my brother buy me an advance draw ticket for the Florida lottery...since I am inconveniencing him to get it for me while he is in the area, I am only going to purchase a \$1 advance draw to cover half the year.  But let one of my destinations be anywhere in Florida, I will buy the same half year advance draw on a \$3 ticket.  Why?  Because I always play to win and I figure when I win, I would prefer an extra \$25 million on top of the base prize amount.  Besides, the times I lose will only help out the Florida education system...or pad the pockets of the Florida lottery executives in the form of fat bonuses.  But hey, it is my choice to play in the manner I play and I am okay with that.

Get MONEY!!! Winning a JACKPOT lottery is all the HOPE and CHANGE I desire!!!  NOW give me MONEY!

The guy who won the presidency in 2008 really won the lottery...he is now millions richer, travels in first class style, and even has a staff that would be the envy of the richest Powerball winner (she has a staff of 2). Every night he goes to sleep, he probably plays the close of Dave Chappelle's Show: I'm rich beyatch!

Wisconsin
United States
Member #1303
March 27, 2003
1508 Posts
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 Posted: March 22, 2008, 4:32 pm - IP Logged

If there's a very good chance of not winning the jackpot, while would anyone want to pay an extra dollar or two for the privilege?

No kidding.  Especially since I didn't scan anything in there saying that the extra buck or two would increase any lower tier prize that you could win.  It just increases the jackpot, which already has extremely high odds. You'd be better off spending the money on another ticket.

============

How can you tell if a politician is lying?

Answer: His lips are moving.

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