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$330 MILLION: Mega Millions lottery jackpot nears record high

Topic closed. 125 replies. Last post 6 years ago by Coin Toss.

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visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
light on my feet
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Posted: January 4, 2011, 2:25 pm - IP Logged

regardless,  common sense still rules the debate,  because like i said .......

(1) you don't see anyone who bought over $100 worth of tickets (to "increase" their odds) ........ever winning.

that fact alone ought to tell anyone it still won't help you odds wise in a game of 176:1

(2)  and the other fact (that makes me probably the least popular guy at LP),  that no one can hardly make a profit at pick3, a game with much less odds/matrix,  and a game that players saturate the playing field.

buy 1 ticket and walk away.

"if you are meant to,  you will.  if you are not, no amount of tickets will work"   (1st visiondude 4:2)

            "i am .........."meant to"       

P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

         until further notice,  it's  france everyday

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    New Member

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    Posted: January 4, 2011, 2:29 pm - IP Logged

    Alright... I am not sure where everyone's confusion is coming from with the odds...

    Let's take the MegaNumber....

     

    You have a 1 in 46 chance...  So, 1/46, 45 numbers can beat you.

     

    If you pick 2 numbers, yes there are still 44 numbers that can beat you, but 44 that can beat you compared to 45 that can beat you is better odds.  Not that much better odds, but it IS better odds.

     

    Let's say you buy 6 tickets.  Yes, 40 can still beat you, but 40 beating you is better than 44 beating you.

     

    CoinToss: You continue to say that each line has the same odds, so whether you buy 100 or whether you buy 1, you have the same chances of winning, but you are wrong.

    Yes, they all have the same odds, but when added together (all bought by the same person) it gives that person better odds.

     

    Since I cannot post links since I am new, just google "Adding Fractions" and pretty much every single result will tell you how to add fractions.

     

    Basically, you make sure the denominators are the same.  Then you add the numerators together.  THen you simplify.  We'll go with 1/46.

     

    1/46 + 1/46 = 2/46  Since both the top and bottom can be divided by 2, we do that, leaving 1/23.

     

    1/23 > 1/46.

     

    Let's say you buy 6.... 1/46 + 1/46 + 1/46 + 1/46 + 1/46 + 1/46 = 6/46 = 3/23

     

    3/23 > 1/23 > 1/46

     

    Buying more tickets increases your odds.  Are your odds still tiny?  Of course... but your odds are still better if you buy more tickets.

     

    That said, buy responsibly.

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      NY
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      Posted: January 4, 2011, 3:01 pm - IP Logged

      Forget the top matrix for right now, let's look at the Mega ball number.

      You choose one of forty -six. That leaves 45 that can beat you. So you say, "OK, I'll play another Mega number and reduce that by half (2/46), now there are only 23 numbers that can beat me".

      Wrong. There are 44.

      Now go back to the top matrix and apply the same thing.

      Some things never change. I've spent years trying to eductate you about this, but maybe that's just not possible. Still, I'll give it another go since the concept is really very simple. If nothing else the other people will understand it when it's explained.

      Since you're playing 2 of the 46 mega ball numbers, play one odd number and one even number. There are 23 odd numbers to choose from and 23 even numbers to choose from. That means that if the winning number is odd you'll have a 1 in 23 chance of having that number. If the winning number is even you'll also have a 1 in 23 chance of having the right number. No matter which of the 46 numbers is drawn it will be either odd or even, and either way there's a 1 in 23 chance you'll have the correct odd or even number. 2 in 46 = 1 in 23. QED.

      That should be clear and simple enough for anybody who understands odd and even numbers and isn't overwhelmed by numbers up to 46.

      The exact same thing is true for any other number of plays you want. Cards should be famliliar to you, so let's look at why 4 in 52 is the same as 1 in 13. Choose 4 cards and make them all aces. If the winning card is a spade there's a 1 in 13 chance it will be the ace. If the winning card is a club, there's a 1 in 13 chance it will be the ace. The same is true for hearts and diamonds, and no matter which of the 52 possible cards is selected as long as it belongs to one of the 4 suits there will be a 1 in 13 chance that it will be the ace. Since it *will* belong to one of the 4 suits your 4 cards from 52 gives you a 1 in 13 chance of having the winning card. 4 in 52 = 1 in 13.

      Whatever single card is selected as the winner has to be one of the 13 cards from 2 through ace, so you have a 1 in 13 chance of winning.

      Just because the range of possible outcomes for MM or PB don't easily fall into the same "natural" groups doesn't mean it doesn't work exactly the same way for those possible combinations. Simply sort the possible combinations into arbitrary groups of the same size.
       - 3 tickets, with one from each group of 58,570,512. 3 in 175,711,536 = 1 in 58,570,512
       - 4 tickets, with one from each group of 43,927,884. 4 in 175,711,536 = 1 in 43,927,88
      And so on.

      It's not complicated. The numbers are bigger, but it's still the same rules as when you learned how to use fractions in 3rd grade.  2/16 is 1/8, as in 2 cups is 1 pint. 4/16 is 1/4 is 1 quart. 64/128 is 8/16,  is 2/4, is 1/2 gallon.

      Really. It's 3rd grade fractions, just with slighlty bigger numbers.

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        Posted: January 4, 2011, 3:06 pm - IP Logged

        Todd, thanks for your post, very interesting indeed. 

         

        BUT before anyone goes out and spends more than what they normally do take a look the math.  The odds of winning are long, VERY LONG.  For us to win we have to be very lucky and there's very little we can do about it.  The difference between buying 1 ticket or 10 is basicly zero.  Yes your odds increase 0.000005122% but I'm sorry that's zero -0-.  Heck go ahead and buy 100 tickets and compared to buying 1 ticket your odds are only 0.000056342% better, still basicly ZERO.  So take that extra $99 and go enjoy a nice steak dinner. 

        Want to increase your odds to say .005% (MUCH BETTER THAN THE ABOVE but still long odds) all you have to buy 8,786 tickets.  For your almost $9,000 investment you would have a 1 in 20,000 chance.  Sure that's not all that bad for a chance to win hundreds of millions of dollars but you better be able to loose that $9,000, because you probably will.

          Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
          Chief Bottle Washer
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          Posted: January 4, 2011, 3:11 pm - IP Logged

          Some things never change. I've spent years trying to eductate you about this, but maybe that's just not possible. Still, I'll give it another go since the concept is really very simple. If nothing else the other people will understand it when it's explained.

          Since you're playing 2 of the 46 mega ball numbers, play one odd number and one even number. There are 23 odd numbers to choose from and 23 even numbers to choose from. That means that if the winning number is odd you'll have a 1 in 23 chance of having that number. If the winning number is even you'll also have a 1 in 23 chance of having the right number. No matter which of the 46 numbers is drawn it will be either odd or even, and either way there's a 1 in 23 chance you'll have the correct odd or even number. 2 in 46 = 1 in 23. QED.

          That should be clear and simple enough for anybody who understands odd and even numbers and isn't overwhelmed by numbers up to 46.

          The exact same thing is true for any other number of plays you want. Cards should be famliliar to you, so let's look at why 4 in 52 is the same as 1 in 13. Choose 4 cards and make them all aces. If the winning card is a spade there's a 1 in 13 chance it will be the ace. If the winning card is a club, there's a 1 in 13 chance it will be the ace. The same is true for hearts and diamonds, and no matter which of the 52 possible cards is selected as long as it belongs to one of the 4 suits there will be a 1 in 13 chance that it will be the ace. Since it *will* belong to one of the 4 suits your 4 cards from 52 gives you a 1 in 13 chance of having the winning card. 4 in 52 = 1 in 13.

          Whatever single card is selected as the winner has to be one of the 13 cards from 2 through ace, so you have a 1 in 13 chance of winning.

          Just because the range of possible outcomes for MM or PB don't easily fall into the same "natural" groups doesn't mean it doesn't work exactly the same way for those possible combinations. Simply sort the possible combinations into arbitrary groups of the same size.
           - 3 tickets, with one from each group of 58,570,512. 3 in 175,711,536 = 1 in 58,570,512
           - 4 tickets, with one from each group of 43,927,884. 4 in 175,711,536 = 1 in 43,927,88
          And so on.

          It's not complicated. The numbers are bigger, but it's still the same rules as when you learned how to use fractions in 3rd grade.  2/16 is 1/8, as in 2 cups is 1 pint. 4/16 is 1/4 is 1 quart. 64/128 is 8/16,  is 2/4, is 1/2 gallon.

          Really. It's 3rd grade fractions, just with slighlty bigger numbers.

          RE: "That should be clear and simple enough for anybody who understands odd and even numbers and isn't overwhelmed by numbers up to 46."

          I Agree!  LOL

           

          Check the State Lottery Report Card
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          Help eliminate computerized drawings!

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            Posted: January 4, 2011, 3:16 pm - IP Logged

            "(1) you don't see anyone who bought over $100 worth of tickets (to "increase" their odds) ........ever winning."

            You've heard of Jack Whittaker?  He won PB playing $100 worth of tickets. It's possible that some other winers also played very large numbers of tickets, but just as the discussion about the odds when you buy 2, 3 or 5 tickets, the chances of a winner being somebody who spent $100 depend son what percentage of tickets were bought by those people vs the percentage bought by those who buy only afew tickets.

            Let's imagine the lotery sells 1 ticket for each of the 175,711,536 possible combinations.  If 17,571 people buy 100 tickets each they'll cover 1,757,100, or a hair under 1% of the possible combinations. If the remaining 173,954,436 are sold to people who buy between 1 and 10 tickets then there's a 99+% chance the winner will have bought between 1 and 10 tickets and there will be slightly less than a 1% chance that the winner will have spent $100.

            I've got no idea what the typical ratio is, but it's a safe bet that those who spend $100 are a very small minority when the jackpot is fairly modest. When it's big, a small, but slightly larger, percentage of players get crazy and throw large amounts of money at it. Either way, the winners who spend any given amount will be in proportion to th epercentage of players who spend that amount. Spending $100 makes you 100 times more likely to win, but since very few people do that, most winners come from th emuch larger group that spends a modest amount.

              freeobama's avatar - Lottery-057.jpg
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              Posted: January 4, 2011, 3:56 pm - IP Logged

              I just came back from the store and it was a long line of people buying mega millions tickets!!! i think its going to be a winner tonite!!!Evil

                freeobama's avatar - Lottery-057.jpg
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                Posted: January 4, 2011, 4:16 pm - IP Logged

                I got my powerball tickets for tomorrow!! who knows, $34millions aint bad even though it is harder to win the powerball than mega millions. I noticed a nice amount of powerball jackpot wins last year in the $30 to $60 millions range.Dance

                  alsports2000's avatar - 23606770150900
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                  Posted: January 4, 2011, 4:55 pm - IP Logged

                  I JUST WISHED EVERYONE WOULD POST THE NUMBERS THEY ARE PLAYING FOR TONIGHT AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS. HERE ARE MINE:   9 13 31 48 49 (10). I KNOW THIS IS NOT THE PREDICTIONS PAGE BUT HERE WE GO.....See Ya!P.S. THOSE MILLIONS ARE STAYING IN TEXAS THIS TIME.

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                    Posted: January 4, 2011, 5:42 pm - IP Logged

                    Todd- Thank you for your very detailed and clear explanation; I stand corrected. As much as I can work through the logic, it surprises me that one ticket has a 1:176+ million chance while 13 ticket purchase results in a 1:13.5+ million chance. Otherwise, agree with all: odds are astronomical but there have been a number of winners over the years and we most likely will see multiple winners of the overall jackpot tonight. KY Floyd's explanation is also clearly stated and helpful. Thank you, both. So even if I don't have a winning ticket tonight, got the brain working today and learned something as well. Good luck to all. May the winner(s) stay safe after coming forward.

                      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                      Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                      Posted: January 4, 2011, 6:37 pm - IP Logged

                      KY Floyd

                      "Let's imagine the lotery sells 1 ticket for each of the 175,711,536 possible combinations.  If 17,571 people buy 100 tickets each they'll cover 1,757,100, or a hair under 1% of the possible combinations..."

                      You are assuming that of those 17,571 people buying 100 tickets each there are no duplicates. You can't assume anything in lotto.

                      ____________________________________

                      Any "+" game  (i.e., 5 + 1) is actually two lotteries in one. First you have to have the 5 numbers drawn on the top matrix meaning you have ovrcome odds of 1:3,904,701. To win the jackpot, then, AND ONLY THEN, you have to have the right number from the bottom matrix.

                      Considering the amount of tickets played and the minute amount of people who hit 5 + 0 the fraction theory has to be breaking down somewhere, huh?

                      The Lottery must be doing some fantastic "reverse fractionalization" to trun those odds of 3,904,701 into 175,711,536 to one!

                      Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                      Lep

                      There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                        Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                        Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                        Posted: January 4, 2011, 7:07 pm - IP Logged

                        KY Floyd

                        "Some things never change. I've spent years trying to eductate you about this, but maybe that's just not possible".

                        And in all those years this board has grown to over 100,000, which means an awful lot of tickets played, an awful lot of "odds reductions", and how many jackpots hit?

                        Maybe you know the differmce between a fairy tale and a war story.

                        Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                        Lep

                        There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

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                          NY
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                          Posted: January 4, 2011, 7:37 pm - IP Logged

                          "Maybe you know the differmce between a fairy tale and a war story."

                          Let me guess. Cinderella lived happily ever after and you suffered a traumatic brain injury?

                            visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
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                            Posted: January 4, 2011, 8:31 pm - IP Logged

                            "(1) you don't see anyone who bought over $100 worth of tickets (to "increase" their odds) ........ever winning."

                            You've heard of Jack Whittaker?  He won PB playing $100 worth of tickets. It's possible that some other winers also played very large numbers of tickets, but just as the discussion about the odds when you buy 2, 3 or 5 tickets, the chances of a winner being somebody who spent $100 depend son what percentage of tickets were bought by those people vs the percentage bought by those who buy only afew tickets.

                            Let's imagine the lotery sells 1 ticket for each of the 175,711,536 possible combinations.  If 17,571 people buy 100 tickets each they'll cover 1,757,100, or a hair under 1% of the possible combinations. If the remaining 173,954,436 are sold to people who buy between 1 and 10 tickets then there's a 99+% chance the winner will have bought between 1 and 10 tickets and there will be slightly less than a 1% chance that the winner will have spent $100.

                            I've got no idea what the typical ratio is, but it's a safe bet that those who spend $100 are a very small minority when the jackpot is fairly modest. When it's big, a small, but slightly larger, percentage of players get crazy and throw large amounts of money at it. Either way, the winners who spend any given amount will be in proportion to th epercentage of players who spend that amount. Spending $100 makes you 100 times more likely to win, but since very few people do that, most winners come from th emuch larger group that spends a modest amount.

                            i am well aware of "jack",  but my case against buying more tickets to "increase" one's odds are easily backed up....

                            when was the last time you heard of anyone (besides one person) stating during their acceptance speech that they played anything much beyond even $5 ?

                            the lottery has been around a long time,  and the news stories are archived at LP. 

                             you would be hard pressed to find very many at all that won after buying more than $5 in tickets.

                            if this multiple ticket approach actually worked,  it would have worked multiple times.

                            it doesn't

                                        "i am .........."meant to"       

                            P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                                     until further notice,  it's  france everyday


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                              Posted: January 4, 2011, 8:53 pm - IP Logged

                              i am well aware of "jack",  but my case against buying more tickets to "increase" one's odds are easily backed up....

                              when was the last time you heard of anyone (besides one person) stating during their acceptance speech that they played anything much beyond even $5 ?

                              the lottery has been around a long time,  and the news stories are archived at LP. 

                               you would be hard pressed to find very many at all that won after buying more than $5 in tickets.

                              if this multiple ticket approach actually worked,  it would have worked multiple times.

                              it doesn't

                              I lot of jackpots are won by groups. Do you think those groups only bought 5 tickets?