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Mass. Lottery game very profitable for those who know how and when to play

Topic closed. 28 replies. Last post 5 years ago by RJOh.

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East Coast Sand
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Posted: August 1, 2011, 9:40 am - IP Logged

I love stories like this, because it goes to show that if you continue to examine the lottery from all angles, you can find ways to turn a good profit.

Note that like most smart gambling strategies, it involves a technique for wagering.  Doing well in gambling is not all about how you play the game; it's largely about how you wager.

While I love these stories, the concept of dropping between 100,000$ and 300,000$ on a lottery game in one day (or 3) is beyond daunting for me.  Odds may be stacked in your favor, but you still have to walk away knowing that you may lose it all.  I have a hard time 'losing' 20$!

    Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
    Chief Bottle Washer
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    Posted: August 1, 2011, 9:57 am - IP Logged

    While I love these stories, the concept of dropping between 100,000$ and 300,000$ on a lottery game in one day (or 3) is beyond daunting for me.  Odds may be stacked in your favor, but you still have to walk away knowing that you may lose it all.  I have a hard time 'losing' 20$!

    It's like anything in life: there are no guarantees from anything.  But it's also true in life that in most cases big rewards are gained through risk.  So it's all a matter of containing the risk and risking what you can afford.  And these people seem to have done that.

     

    Check the State Lottery Report Card
    What grade did your lottery earn?

     

    Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
    Help eliminate computerized drawings!

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
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      Posted: August 1, 2011, 10:04 am - IP Logged

      I think many knew of the quirk (i.e., rules) of the game, but few knew how to properly exploit it.  (Even fewer would have had the resources to do it.)

      No, I don't think Bank of America would give you a $500,000 loan to buy lottery tickets.

      Maybe now that this quirk has drawn national attention, Massachusetts will reconsider its value as states like Ohio, Indiana and Illinois and others have pick6 games where the jackpots have gone over a year without a winner and rolled to over $40M which attracted even more players.  Sounds like this quirk only attracts small groups of extra players, many from out of state who only play because they are guaranteed to win more than they contribute to the state.   And if their winnings are in amounts of less than $600, they probably have a hard time tracking them down for taxes too.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
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        Posted: August 1, 2011, 10:16 am - IP Logged

        If its a guaranteed return if you invest $500,000 would Bank of America allow people to borrow money and buy CashWinfall tix when the jackpot is full?

        I suspect the other high rollers around the country will read this article and fly in to buy tickets the next time the jackpot is full. Then a lot of media attention will follow and questions raised then shutdown of the game. Those odds are amazing if you got that kind of bread to risk.

        I have known about this little quirk for some time now but I haven't won anything significant yet.

        If it was a guaranteed return, Bank of America would probably be investing in it, they've lost money investing in more risky ventures.

        Years ago when state lotteries first started to come on strong, there were quite a few players who thought they could beat them if they invested enough and took out second mortgages on their homes.  People learned from those folks going bankrupt and losing their home that it was a bad idea to borrow money to play lotteries.

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

          maringoman's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcTbRxpKQmOfcCoUqF2FyqIOAwDo7rg9G-lfJLAALPGWJWwiz19eRw
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          Posted: August 1, 2011, 4:28 pm - IP Logged

          If it was a guaranteed return, Bank of America would probably be investing in it, they've lost money investing in more risky ventures.

          Years ago when state lotteries first started to come on strong, there were quite a few players who thought they could beat them if they invested enough and took out second mortgages on their homes.  People learned from those folks going bankrupt and losing their home that it was a bad idea to borrow money to play lotteries.

          Just goes to show you that different people have different needs. Imagine losing a home because you gambled it away? How do you explain it to your family and friends? These are the kinds of things that make men and women jump over the Tobin Bridge or the infamous Golden Gate Bridge

          That money's gone fo ever

            TheOtherOne's avatar - Lottery-027.jpg
            Nashville, TN
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            Posted: August 2, 2011, 12:33 am - IP Logged

            I love stories like this, because it goes to show that if you continue to examine the lottery from all angles, you can find ways to turn a good profit.

            Note that like most smart gambling strategies, it involves a technique for wagering.  Doing well in gambling is not all about how you play the game; it's largely about how you wager.

            I find it interesting that the group was from MIT.

            What, does the faculty/student body of MIT sit around and hold classes on how to 'Break' Vegas and Break lotteries? :)

            First they mastered card counting (cant remember the official name of the group but just watch the movie '21' with Kevin Spacey), now they are on to the lottery.

            I am sure they have schemed more than that, which is awesome either way.

            Maybe I should seek out an online course from there lol

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
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              Posted: August 2, 2011, 1:29 am - IP Logged

              It's interesting to note that in spite of those groups buying millions of tickets, the jackpot has only be won once in seven years.  Seem likes buying lots of tickets during the roll back period when the match4 and match5 payouts are large is the only strategy a player needs, not an MIT education.

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       

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                atlanta,georgia
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                Posted: August 2, 2011, 9:08 am - IP Logged

                Following this story the state Treasurer put a limit on the number of tickets for the Cash WinFall game stores can sell per day.

                Treasurer Grossman said stores can sell a maximum of $5,000 worth of Cash WinFall tickets in a single day.

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
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                  Posted: August 2, 2011, 10:52 am - IP Logged

                  Following this story the state Treasurer put a limit on the number of tickets for the Cash WinFall game stores can sell per day.

                  Treasurer Grossman said stores can sell a maximum of $5,000 worth of Cash WinFall tickets in a single day.

                  That could have been predicted once the winning strategy that actually worked was exposed by the news paper stories.  It's also likely this game will be replaced with in the year.  Those big spenders knew once the story was out to the general public their buying all those tickets at one or two stores would end.

                  I just wonder how many other lottery "quirks" may exist that the general public don't know about and lotteries don't talk about.

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

                    RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                    Posted: August 2, 2011, 2:28 pm - IP Logged

                    It's interesting to note that in spite of those groups buying millions of tickets, the jackpot has only be won once in seven years.  Seem likes buying lots of tickets during the roll back period when the match4 and match5 payouts are large is the only strategy a player needs, not an MIT education.

                    RJOh

                    The roll down would still carry the same odds for the game as any other drawing on a ticket by ticket

                    bases. They would need more than just a betting strategy unless the payouts exceded the odds for

                    each lower prize which on may 9th 2011 the payouts were as below

                    Normal odds                                       roll down payouts

                    2x= free ticket      1 in 6.8                  $ no info

                    3x = $5.00            1 in 47.4                $26.00

                    4X= $150.00         1 in 800                 $824.00

                    5X= $4000.00       1 in 39,028            $24, 821.00

                    6X= JP                   1 in 9,366,819

                     

                    Matching a 4 of 6 was the only option that paid more than the expected ticket cost needed to win that level

                    prize which would have netted a $24.00 dollar profit.  One would have to do better then the expected odds

                    to make out big playing this game.  You would need to buy 39,028 tickets on average to hit a 5 of 6 which

                    paid 24,821,00 which would show a loss of $14,207.  Even with the large payouts a system of picking the sets

                    would need to be in use.  The increased prize level would not provide it unless the free tickets won a good

                    amount in the next drawing. 

                     

                    RL

                    Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                    I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                    they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                    USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                      US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                      mid-Ohio
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                      Posted: August 2, 2011, 2:46 pm - IP Logged

                      RJOh

                      The roll down would still carry the same odds for the game as any other drawing on a ticket by ticket

                      bases. They would need more than just a betting strategy unless the payouts exceded the odds for

                      each lower prize which on may 9th 2011 the payouts were as below

                      Normal odds                                       roll down payouts

                      2x= free ticket      1 in 6.8                  $ no info

                      3x = $5.00            1 in 47.4                $26.00

                      4X= $150.00         1 in 800                 $824.00

                      5X= $4000.00       1 in 39,028            $24, 821.00

                      6X= JP                   1 in 9,366,819

                       

                      Matching a 4 of 6 was the only option that paid more than the expected ticket cost needed to win that level

                      prize which would have netted a $24.00 dollar profit.  One would have to do better then the expected odds

                      to make out big playing this game.  You would need to buy 39,028 tickets on average to hit a 5 of 6 which

                      paid 24,821,00 which would show a loss of $14,207.  Even with the large payouts a system of picking the sets

                      would need to be in use.  The increased prize level would not provide it unless the free tickets won a good

                      amount in the next drawing. 

                       

                      RL

                      From other stories I've read about this the math done by several math professors showed anyone who bought a $100,000 worth of CashFall tickets during the rundown would likely earn their money back plus a profit which five gambling companies were doing.  The only strategy they used or needed was buying several hundreds thousands tickets randomly before the drawing.

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking       

                        RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                        Posted: August 2, 2011, 2:57 pm - IP Logged

                        From other stories I've read about this the math done by several math professors showed anyone who bought a $100,000 worth of CashFall tickets during the rundown would likely earn their money back plus a profit which five gambling companies were doing.  The only strategy they used or needed was buying several hundreds thousands tickets randomly before the drawing.

                        RJOh

                        Random tickets overall would conform to the odds of the game.  If the prize payout was less then

                        the tickets needed to win then they take a big gamble.  Playing at that level is something I can't 

                        afford to do and if I could afford it then I would not play.  In the article they mentioned a 5 of 6

                        could win $100,000.00 and that would mean that it was very safe but I still think some sort of

                        system or wheel would needed  to ensure a certain amount of coverage.   If the payouts were

                        less then the cost of tickets for that prize then it would not be a sure bet.

                        RL

                        Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                        I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                        they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                        USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                          US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                          RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                          Posted: August 2, 2011, 3:19 pm - IP Logged

                          RJOh

                          Run off 500,000 random sets for a game and see how it does over time,  They may be pooling money from

                          many sources which would make the end payout even less.  If I buy all 575757 sets for my 5-39 and half 

                          of that goes back into the prize.  Lets say that the JP was 575757 / 2 = $287878.50 plus half of my investment

                          of $287878.50 would bring the prize up to $575757 and I would get my money back if no other person matched

                          all 5 numbers minus taxes which should not be a problem because I could claim the ticket cost.  If I bought

                          575757 random tickets I would expect 30% to be repeats so I would have a 70% chance of breaking even plus the

                          smaller prizes.  With 70% of the tickets you might not even hit a 4 of 5.   In a 5-39 matrix there are only 170 tickets

                          that match 4 numbers. 

                          RL

                          Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                          I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                          they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                          USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                            US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                            mid-Ohio
                            United States
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                            Posted: August 3, 2011, 5:24 am - IP Logged

                            RJOh

                            The roll down would still carry the same odds for the game as any other drawing on a ticket by ticket

                            bases. They would need more than just a betting strategy unless the payouts exceded the odds for

                            each lower prize which on may 9th 2011 the payouts were as below

                            Normal odds                                       roll down payouts

                            2x= free ticket      1 in 6.8                  $ no info

                            3x = $5.00            1 in 47.4                $26.00

                            4X= $150.00         1 in 800                 $824.00

                            5X= $4000.00       1 in 39,028            $24, 821.00

                            6X= JP                   1 in 9,366,819

                             

                            Matching a 4 of 6 was the only option that paid more than the expected ticket cost needed to win that level

                            prize which would have netted a $24.00 dollar profit.  One would have to do better then the expected odds

                            to make out big playing this game.  You would need to buy 39,028 tickets on average to hit a 5 of 6 which

                            paid 24,821,00 which would show a loss of $14,207.  Even with the large payouts a system of picking the sets

                            would need to be in use.  The increased prize level would not provide it unless the free tickets won a good

                            amount in the next drawing. 

                             

                            RL

                            If the payouts didn't exceed the odds of winning then there were too many hogs in the feeding trough for that roll down.  Since all the big spenders formed gambling companies they can claim all their loses including the cost of tickets as professional gamblers and are not limited to only claiming loses up to the amount they won as regular players are.  The big spenders could still break even for the year since these roll downs happen several times during the year, if not then as gamblers they shouldn't expect to come out ahead all the time.

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking