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$173 MILLION: Mega Millions is the hot ticket

Topic closed. 39 replies. Last post 3 years ago by jamella724.

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Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
Los Angeles, California
United States
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January 5, 2011
1530 Posts
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Posted: September 26, 2013, 6:58 pm - IP Logged

Pretty impressive graph you have going here JonD- l am of the mind that Californians especially Californians are having 2nd thoughts when it comes to both the MM & PB jackpots. Consider that PB was introduced to the State back in April a week before tax day and we have yet to get a winner or even a split for the top prize. Californians are impatient and perhaps the slow down in sales is one of the reasons for the dropoff, but then again l could be wrong.

Jackpot fatigue could definitely be setting in. Also, now that we are less than a month away from the new matrix, I wonder how much the dwindling advance play may be affecting the numbers. Of course, sales have pretty consistently turned the corner and went into overdrive only after the JP passed the $200M mark, and we're still a few draws away from that.

    LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
    Happyland
    United States
    Member #146344
    September 1, 2013
    1129 Posts
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    Posted: September 26, 2013, 7:03 pm - IP Logged

    Pretty impressive graph you have going here JonD- l am of the mind that Californians especially Californians are having 2nd thoughts when it comes to both the MM & PB jackpots. Consider that PB was introduced to the State back in April a week before tax day and we have yet to get a winner or even a split for the top prize. Californians are impatient and perhaps the slow down in sales is one of the reasons for the dropoff, but then again l could be wrong.

    Texas joined Powerball in January 2010 and didn't get their first Powerball winner until May of this year. Over 3 years. Their sales are about half that of Cali's so it could be next fall before you see one.

    If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
    If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

    2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
    P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

      golfer1960's avatar - Lottery-003.jpg
      Eatontown, NJ
      United States
      Member #119670
      November 29, 2011
      740 Posts
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      Posted: September 27, 2013, 8:38 am - IP Logged

      Below is a plot of the previous record MM JP of $656M on 19th draw, compared to current run which is much lower sales and is underperforming even more than expected. They seem to be expecting flat sales of around $31M for next draw,(#18) but that could change. This last big run is very erratic.

      Orange lines is previous record run, blue lines is current run with projections:

      MegaMillionsRuns

      If it makes it to the 25th draw, which is *possible* now with this new lower trajectory, that would be the Oct 22nd first draw of new matrix. Wouldn't they love that if it did make it. But the conspiracy theorists would be up in arms if it did.

      Wow Jon, that is some chart. Did you do that yourself?

        golfer1960's avatar - Lottery-003.jpg
        Eatontown, NJ
        United States
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        November 29, 2011
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        Posted: September 27, 2013, 8:42 am - IP Logged

        You are correct.

        The record $656 million jackpot took 19 drawings in which it had reached $290 million on it's 17th draw.

        Hey Jill, if I win the $173MM Jackpot and I wanted to live off the interest, how much money would I get per year? Invested conservatively of course.

          Piaceri's avatar - sarsony1
          Republic of Texas
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          January 9, 2008
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          Posted: September 27, 2013, 9:01 am - IP Logged



          $150 WINNER.

          Congrats!

           

          Good luck tonight everyone!

          face

          singlewinnersinglewinnersinglewinner   

            Goteki54's avatar - Lottery-007.jpg
            Baltimore, MD
            United States
            Member #143332
            May 30, 2013
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            Posted: September 27, 2013, 9:28 am - IP Logged

            That is one nice return on investment of $10 dolalrs!I Agree!! Congrats Thrifty!!

            Following the trends and patterns means following the money!Banana

              rdgrnr's avatar - walt
              Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
              United States
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              April 28, 2009
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              Posted: September 27, 2013, 11:39 am - IP Logged



              $150 WINNER.

              THRIFTMEISTER!

              I'm proud of ya, son!

              I'da been a little prouder if you'da played the Megaplier though like I taught ya and won $450.

              Listen to me next time and you'll be sittin' in the Catbird seat, son.

                Avatar
                Place noon can live
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                May 18, 2013
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                Posted: September 27, 2013, 10:33 pm - IP Logged

                #AJO

                  rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                  Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
                  United States
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                  April 28, 2009
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                  Posted: September 27, 2013, 10:49 pm - IP Logged

                  #AJO

                  #???

                    Avatar
                    Texas
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                    September 4, 2012
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                    Posted: October 19, 2013, 7:41 am - IP Logged

                    Did anyone win this jackpot prize? I need to buy my tickets. I'm hoping to win a jackpot prize as huge as this one! I can think a lot of possible things I can do if I win this huge jackpot prize.