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$189 MILLION: Mega Millions jackpot rolls again

Topic closed. 38 replies. Last post 3 years ago by jamella724.

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Texas
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Posted: September 28, 2013, 3:26 pm - IP Logged

California will eventually when but it seems it can take a couple of years for a new state to win.  I could be wrong!

    Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
    Chief Bottle Washer
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    Posted: September 28, 2013, 4:28 pm - IP Logged

    California will eventually when but it seems it can take a couple of years for a new state to win.  I could be wrong!

    Ohio did it right away.

     

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      Akron, Ohio
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      Posted: September 28, 2013, 6:36 pm - IP Logged

      I betcha Ohio gets it again because their is a pattern it goes in and out of Ohio and New Jersey and New York!!! It's Ohio watch and see!!

        dallascowboyfan's avatar - tiana the-princess-and-the-frog.jpg
        Oklahoma
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        Posted: September 28, 2013, 7:08 pm - IP Logged

        $189 Million Woo Hoo Banana

        I Love Pink & Green 1908

          Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
          Los Angeles, California
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          Posted: September 28, 2013, 7:13 pm - IP Logged

          I doubt it.   One would need to be a fool to play a game with longer odds and no added value as regularly as one plays a game with shorter odds, even if the shorter odds were astronomical already.

          Granted, there are lots of fools, something recent trends in lotterys demonstrate, but I expect this game to wither and die.   It has certainly withered.

          The Pennsylvania lottery tried exactly this approach with their lotto game, and as I recall, it spent close to a year rolling over continuously with very low jackpot jumps before PA simply shut the game down.

          We can couple this with jackpot fatigue.   Years ago, if a jackpot was around $100,000,000 annuity, long lines formed everywhere.    Today such a jackpot produces yawns. 

          If the new MM game takes the same amount of time to reach $100M as it does now - this one took 13 draws - the game is dead.

          Time will tell.

          You doubt it? So you're sticking with your prediction of 2 JP wins a year? Ummm...OK.

          MM does a few billion a year in revenue, this is no small time state lotto 6/49 game. I'll bet they know a little bit more about the market reaction than you do. They did provide better overall odds of winning any prize, as well as increased megaplier. And the chances of winning the JP dollar for dollar, $2 on PB versus $2 on new MM, isn't much of a difference at all.

          Any I don't think it's necessary to call people fools who play. Many understand the odds, and only play for the entertainment of a dollar and a dream. Gotta be in it to win it. No need for name calling bro, chill out.

            dpoly1's avatar - driver
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            Posted: September 28, 2013, 7:30 pm - IP Logged

            Hmmmmph

            LOL!

            dpoly1 - Playing the lottery to save the jobs of those that build, transport, sell & maintain luxury items! -

             

            Eschew Poverty ........... Vote Conservative!

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
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              Posted: September 28, 2013, 7:40 pm - IP Logged

              I betcha Ohio gets it again because their is a pattern it goes in and out of Ohio and New Jersey and New York!!! It's Ohio watch and see!!

              Hope you're right, I plan to play at least 20 lines Tuesday and it's about time I won a jackpot.

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       

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                New Jersey
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                Posted: September 28, 2013, 11:23 pm - IP Logged

                You doubt it? So you're sticking with your prediction of 2 JP wins a year? Ummm...OK.

                MM does a few billion a year in revenue, this is no small time state lotto 6/49 game. I'll bet they know a little bit more about the market reaction than you do. They did provide better overall odds of winning any prize, as well as increased megaplier. And the chances of winning the JP dollar for dollar, $2 on PB versus $2 on new MM, isn't much of a difference at all.

                Any I don't think it's necessary to call people fools who play. Many understand the odds, and only play for the entertainment of a dollar and a dream. Gotta be in it to win it. No need for name calling bro, chill out.

                Yeah, I doubt it.

                The game has been averaging sales of less than $20M per draw this year.   That's before they make it worse.    That works out to be about a billion per year on a system that is now going to be 1:250,000,000.

                That's not a "few" billion per year.  It's a couple of billion, which is pretty miserable for a population of the size living in areas where tickets are sold.

                You expect a lot of big jackpots?   Um...um...um...

                What I said, in case you missed it, was that the PA lottery ran for nearly a year without producing a jackpot, but...

                ...the odds were much better than 1 to 250,000,000.

                There are no state lotto games, zero, that have odds as long as the current MM or Powerball.

                It's pretty basic math that a larger number of tickets purchased can be offset by making the odds longer.

                That's why the lottery keeps making them longer and longer and longer.   

                It is possible that the game will produce 52 jackpots a year, not likely, but most lottery players would understand - this shouldn't be mysterious - that the jackpots will be small.    That is, in fact, what happened this year, 8 winners, small jackpots, only one of which was over $100M annuity. 

                I merely note, however, to repeat my original comment, that the last 18th draw, sold 190M tickets, and this one sold 33M.  The last 18th to 19th draw advertised a jackpot jump of close to $300M, this one is advertising a jackpot jump of $16M.

                We have gone two and one half months without a winner, and the advertised jackpot is less than $200M and the odds are still around 1:175M.     Four runs like this would eat a year.

                The new lottery will start with a base jackpot of $15M, with a cash value nearly equal to that of the current $12M, since they've lengthened the annuity time by 4 years to inflate the advertised value, but not the true value.

                You see this as inspirational for players maybe?

                To each his own.

                Now, you might be inspired to buy even more tickets than ever because the odds are longer, but to me that doesn't make much sense.    As I told you before, in another thread, I play by expectation value, so speaking only for myself, I will be buying far fewer tickets, which is, of course, a good thing.

                As for what will happen on the grand scale, I have my prediction, you have yours.   Again, time will tell.

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                  Posted: September 28, 2013, 11:34 pm - IP Logged

                  I meant WIN, sorry

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                    Posted: September 28, 2013, 11:48 pm - IP Logged

                    You doubt it? So you're sticking with your prediction of 2 JP wins a year? Ummm...OK.

                    MM does a few billion a year in revenue, this is no small time state lotto 6/49 game. I'll bet they know a little bit more about the market reaction than you do. They did provide better overall odds of winning any prize, as well as increased megaplier. And the chances of winning the JP dollar for dollar, $2 on PB versus $2 on new MM, isn't much of a difference at all.

                    Any I don't think it's necessary to call people fools who play. Many understand the odds, and only play for the entertainment of a dollar and a dream. Gotta be in it to win it. No need for name calling bro, chill out.

                    MM used to have a few billion in sales, but the reason they're changing the game is that those days are gone. The current run took 14 drawings to reach a jackpot of $119 million (annuity, of course). At the current annuity to cash ratio that $119 million was just under $82 million cash. That represents sales of about 259 million tickets, which just happens to match the odds for the new format.

                    At $1 per ticket, it took them 7 weeks to generate just under $260 million in revenue. At that rate the revenue for a full year will be a bit shy of the $2 billion mark. Since we should expect 1 jackpot winning ticket for every 259 million they sell, it also suggests 7.5 winning tickets per year, assuming future sales are similar to what we've seen during the current drawing. BTW, I don't know where you got the idea that Prob988 said anything about 2 winners per year. He suggested 30 drawings to reach $300 million, which is considerably more than what we can expect as an average jackpot.

                    That leaves the question of what future sales will be like. Despite the substantial increase in the odds, there's still a much better chance of winning the jackpot by spending $2 than there is with Powerball. Since the chances of winning a jackpot are almost twice as high for a $2 bet MM would already be outselling PB if that was all that mattered, unless most players are too stupid to know what the odds and prizes are. If PB's current success over MM is based on the odds of winning other prizes, then the new format isn't going to do jack to improve sales, except  when it results in really large jackpots.

                    The 2nd place is being raised to match PB's, but the odds of winning it, even with a $2 bet will be only 60% of the odds for PB's 2nd place prize. The 3rd place prize is being halved from $10k to $5k. At half the price of a PB ticket that's comparable to PB's prize, since the chance of winning is only slightly worse than for PB. The other prizes follow the same pattern - at best, they're comparable to PB. I see absolutely nothing in the new format to make MM a better deal than it is now, except that we'll occasionally have a very slim chance of winning a very large jackpot. Of course even that is being served up smothered in BS sauce, since the new annuity structure means that the cash prize for any given advertised jackpot will be smaller than it is now.

                    I'll be surprised if this change doesn't make sales even worse. MM officials claim th echnage is based on market research and watching what heppened with PB. Of course anyone who actually watched PB would know that PB tried a similar strategy with no sucess, and that's what prompted them to reduce the odds and double the ticket price. If MM is still a successful game a year from now it will probably cost $2 and have odds that are  close to what they are now.

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                      Posted: September 29, 2013, 12:05 am - IP Logged

                      yawn

                        Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
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                        Posted: September 29, 2013, 12:22 am - IP Logged

                        Yeah, I doubt it.

                        The game has been averaging sales of less than $20M per draw this year.   That's before they make it worse.    That works out to be about a billion per year on a system that is now going to be 1:250,000,000.

                        That's not a "few" billion per year.  It's a couple of billion, which is pretty miserable for a population of the size living in areas where tickets are sold.

                        You expect a lot of big jackpots?   Um...um...um...

                        What I said, in case you missed it, was that the PA lottery ran for nearly a year without producing a jackpot, but...

                        ...the odds were much better than 1 to 250,000,000.

                        There are no state lotto games, zero, that have odds as long as the current MM or Powerball.

                        It's pretty basic math that a larger number of tickets purchased can be offset by making the odds longer.

                        That's why the lottery keeps making them longer and longer and longer.   

                        It is possible that the game will produce 52 jackpots a year, not likely, but most lottery players would understand - this shouldn't be mysterious - that the jackpots will be small.    That is, in fact, what happened this year, 8 winners, small jackpots, only one of which was over $100M annuity. 

                        I merely note, however, to repeat my original comment, that the last 18th draw, sold 190M tickets, and this one sold 33M.  The last 18th to 19th draw advertised a jackpot jump of close to $300M, this one is advertising a jackpot jump of $16M.

                        We have gone two and one half months without a winner, and the advertised jackpot is less than $200M and the odds are still around 1:175M.     Four runs like this would eat a year.

                        The new lottery will start with a base jackpot of $15M, with a cash value nearly equal to that of the current $12M, since they've lengthened the annuity time by 4 years to inflate the advertised value, but not the true value.

                        You see this as inspirational for players maybe?

                        To each his own.

                        Now, you might be inspired to buy even more tickets than ever because the odds are longer, but to me that doesn't make much sense.    As I told you before, in another thread, I play by expectation value, so speaking only for myself, I will be buying far fewer tickets, which is, of course, a good thing.

                        As for what will happen on the grand scale, I have my prediction, you have yours.   Again, time will tell.

                        I hate to state the obvious, but if you're going to try and come across like a know-it-all, you better get your numbers straight. You say "30 rollovers, more than half a year" which is not equivalent, so I have to interpret what you meant. And again you say "$20M per draw ... works out to a billion a year" which is correct if you only count 1 draw per week, not two.(52 versus 104)

                        Anyway, with that aside, I never said anything about the new MM matrix being inspirational, where do you get that from? Don't put words in my mouth to try and distract the issue. I said there no need for you to call players, if they choose to play, as being fools. Calling others fools does not elevate you above them.

                        The numbers are pretty obvious, and their expectation is that with base sales staying the same, average jackpots values will increase, boosting sales during periods of large jackpots. But yes, time will tell.

                          noise-gate's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcR91HDs4UJhjxO7cmeMQWZ5lB_FOcMLOGicau4V74R45tDgPWrr
                          Bay Area - California
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                          Posted: September 29, 2013, 12:37 am - IP Logged

                          Regarding the Lottery or most anything else in life...

                          No intelligent idea can gain general acceptance unless some stupidity is mixed in with it.

                          Fernando Pessoa

                            Piaceri's avatar - sarsony1
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                            Posted: September 29, 2013, 9:05 am - IP Logged

                            Woo Hoo! Dollar and a Dream!  Go MM, go!  Gonna get my tickets! Banana

                             

                            On the other hand... 2 tickets in Texas won 2nd prize.. both in North Texas. Hoping for a roll Tuesday because I'm driving to Dallas Friday for the State Fair. I'll be buying tickets while I'm in the luckier area. 

                            Thumbs Up

                            face

                            singlewinnersinglewinnersinglewinner   

                              helpmewin's avatar - dandy
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                              Posted: September 29, 2013, 2:45 pm - IP Logged

                              $189 MILLION: Mega Millions jackpot rolls again

                              I Agree! here we go Party

                              Good Luck everyone Lep

                              Let it Snow Snowman