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$257 MILLION: Mega Millions jackpot expands

Topic closed. 164 replies. Last post 3 years ago by LottoMetro.

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Teddi's avatar - Lottery-008.jpg

United States
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May 13, 2013
1182 Posts
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Posted: December 2, 2013, 8:07 pm - IP Logged

I just laugh at the people who take part in these threads and say they haven't bought a ticket.   Who are you kidding.

Laugh all you want, I haven't bought a single MM ticket since the new matrix. I will if it rolls a few more times, but so far, haven't felt the lotto fever yet.

I might wake up early and go running.  I might also wake up and win the lottery.

The odds are about the same.

    BBLL's avatar - audi r8-wallpaper-bla
    Chicago
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    Member #122762
    February 7, 2012
    160 Posts
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    Posted: December 2, 2013, 8:27 pm - IP Logged

    7 unless it is won Hat

    7 rolls might be a billionBig Grin Santa


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      March 25, 2011
      505 Posts
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      Posted: December 2, 2013, 11:12 pm - IP Logged

      The odds of you winning a second prize by buying a single ticket on every drawing are very low. The lottery has more single ticket players losers than multiple tickets players.

      You can't increase your chances of winning some money in the lottery by buying a $1 Mega Millions ticket  and a $2 Powerball ticket for every drawing.

      really, i would have had trouble figuring out that on my own. you fail to understand like most on here. if you skip drawings whether you buy 1 or 100 tickets that decreases your chances of winning anything. the amount of the jackpot doesn't matter in relation to the lower tier prizes. for some here it would be a tragedy to win the jackpot if it's only 40 million so they don't play. yet they spend 10.00 a day on cigarettes(not everyone before you bash) or some other foolish purchases. let's face it you have a better chance of being struck by lightning than taking one of these down, so why play at all. can't afford it unless it's 9 figures theory is as dumb as the lucky state theory. people who drive to what they think is a lucky state have real issues.

        Arrowhead's avatar - underground
        Ohio
        United States
        Member #120754
        December 27, 2011
        294 Posts
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        Posted: December 3, 2013, 12:22 am - IP Logged

        I don't understand the thought-process by some on here that the current MM jackpot---or even I'm assuming the jackpots of a week or two ago---isn't worth tossing a buck (or two with MP) into the hat because of the new odds matrix.

        I don't like the change-of-odds either. And I'm not advocating blowing 20 bucks a draw chasing this thing. But risking 1-2 dollars--or even a couple more-- for $89 mil and change after taxes with current JP? That's not really a 'risk', not really a 'gamble'. It puts you in the game, allows you an opportunity to catch lightning in a bottle.

          RedStang's avatar - tallman zps6gf4inoc.jpg
          NY
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          January 21, 2012
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          Posted: December 3, 2013, 1:03 am - IP Logged

          I don't understand the thought-process by some on here that the current MM jackpot---or even I'm assuming the jackpots of a week or two ago---isn't worth tossing a buck (or two with MP) into the hat because of the new odds matrix.

          I don't like the change-of-odds either. And I'm not advocating blowing 20 bucks a draw chasing this thing. But risking 1-2 dollars--or even a couple more-- for $89 mil and change after taxes with current JP? That's not really a 'risk', not really a 'gamble'. It puts you in the game, allows you an opportunity to catch lightning in a bottle.

          It will never make sense AH.  They pay thousands in taxes and cry about a few dollars.

            whiteballz's avatar - Lottery-015.jpg
            Nutley, New Jersey
            United States
            Member #131058
            August 1, 2012
            875 Posts
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            Posted: December 3, 2013, 1:48 am - IP Logged

            I just laugh at the people who take part in these threads and say they haven't bought a ticket.   Who are you kidding.

            I haven't spent one dime on the mult-state lotterys, mega millions or powerball because my state lottery has better odds and the jackpot is a decent size.

            .

              Avatar
              NY
              United States
              Member #23835
              October 16, 2005
              3474 Posts
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              Posted: December 3, 2013, 1:57 am - IP Logged

              So, you're an advocate for clerks playing Scratch games? This is no laughing matter.

              While you yourself may not be doing it or employing these techniques, a clerk can have an unfair advantage over regular customers playing scratch games:

              - a clerk can watch the players, looking for a long losing streaks, and then pounce in like a "hawk" to look for winners.

              - a clerk can monitor the redemptions on the pack, knowing the amount of low-tier prizes that have been paid out and the likelihood of mid-tier prizes still being available.(if knowing the minimum pack value)

              - conversely, a clerk can also see when a pack has paid out mid-tier prizes already, and know to avoid that pack with just low-tier and losers remaining.

              It's not a huge advantage. Just a small edge to increase their return. It doesn't mean players can't win in those situations, the high-tier prizes could be anywhere in the pack. And the clerk playing is not going to automagically make the large/top prizes migrate to the store, etc. But it's still an advantage that the clerk has that the player/customer does not.

              It's largely a question of ethics. Sure, everyone playing is competing for the same prizes on the roll and has a chance to win. But as the clerk stands there and sells you the tickets with a smile and wishes you "good luck" ... should they also be competing against you? As they smile and sell you tickets from a roll that they know has already paid out big prizes and is left with duds?

              No, they should not be playing against their customers on scratch games.(lotto games are different and are OK to play) Not on the clock, and probably not at the store. Play at another store, that's fine. No law against that.

              Kind of like bar servers not imbibing at the place where they serve. It should be a store policy.

              Any advantage for store clerks is virtually meaningless, and the "biggest" advantage is in games that concentrate  payouts in small prizes. Games that offer bigger prizes offer lower oddds of winning the modest prizes that, on average, occur frequently enough to offer any predictability.

              I've hardly done an extensive search, but in NY the scratch games with the best chances of winning may have odds of about 1 in 8 to win $1. That means that, on average, you can expect 12 "winners" in each pack of 100 tickets, but you haven't actually won anything by getting your dollar back. $2 and $5 winners  may have odds as good as 1 in 20 to 25, so figure that are an average of 5 $2 and 4 $5 winners in each pack of 100. There might be a single $10 winner. That means a typical roll of $1 scratchers might have 10 tickets that let you turn a modest profit on that ticket. About half of them will only get you a $1 profit, and if you've bought more than a single ticket you've reduced your profit.

              Most rolls won't have any winners worth more than $10. That means what's in the roll offers no insight into the chances that one of the next 5 or 10 ticets will have be a big winner.  Those tickets that only turn up once in every 1000 or 20,000 tickets are just as likely to be after 2 or 3 consecutive winners as they are to be after a string of 20 losers.

              Now factor in the winning (and losing) tickets the clerks don't know about because the players left with them. Factor in the random spacing that  can result in 4 winners in a series of 10 tickets and no winners in a series of 10. The reality is that after a customer gets 10 consecutive losers there's a slighty better chance of finding a winner in the next 5 to 10 tickets, but only a very slight chance of  doing better than break even.

              If you think  a lot of store clerks are  making $1 to $5 profits by tracking the winners and losers, and you feel that  tiny little advantage is hurting your chances of winning, perhaps you should dream big and hope for something better than one $5 prize out of every 20 tickets.

                Avatar
                NY
                United States
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                October 16, 2005
                3474 Posts
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                Posted: December 3, 2013, 2:02 am - IP Logged

                 you're dead on. there are only going to be 104 drawings a year for each of these unhittable jackpots. one would think if you play them you should cover "every" one with at least 1 ticket no matter what's in there. if it increases to level you want buy more. i believe some of these participants actually don't buy unless it's at an astronominal amount. if any of them actually won only 1 million they would be ecstatic beyond belief and would avoid the harrassment that goes with a big win. but they don't and they won't unless it's 200 million or more and don't realize they only have so many chances left before the grim reaper comes.

                "one would think if you play them you should cover "every" one with at least 1 ticket no matter what's in there."

                That's perfect strategy for those who don't understand probability and those who are addicts that have to play no matter what.  10 chances are 10 chances whether you get them by playing one chance in each of 10 drawings or 10 chances in a single drawing. Why would anyone with a lick of sense spend their money on chances for a $15 million jackpot when they can spend it on chances for a $100 million or $200 million jackpot?

                  imagine's avatar - WINGS

                  United States
                  Member #85047
                  January 7, 2010
                  102 Posts
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                  Posted: December 3, 2013, 2:45 am - IP Logged

                  So, you're an advocate for clerks playing Scratch games? This is no laughing matter.

                  While you yourself may not be doing it or employing these techniques, a clerk can have an unfair advantage over regular customers playing scratch games:

                  - a clerk can watch the players, looking for a long losing streaks, and then pounce in like a "hawk" to look for winners.

                  - a clerk can monitor the redemptions on the pack, knowing the amount of low-tier prizes that have been paid out and the likelihood of mid-tier prizes still being available.(if knowing the minimum pack value)

                  - conversely, a clerk can also see when a pack has paid out mid-tier prizes already, and know to avoid that pack with just low-tier and losers remaining.

                  It's not a huge advantage. Just a small edge to increase their return. It doesn't mean players can't win in those situations, the high-tier prizes could be anywhere in the pack. And the clerk playing is not going to automagically make the large/top prizes migrate to the store, etc. But it's still an advantage that the clerk has that the player/customer does not.

                  It's largely a question of ethics. Sure, everyone playing is competing for the same prizes on the roll and has a chance to win. But as the clerk stands there and sells you the tickets with a smile and wishes you "good luck" ... should they also be competing against you? As they smile and sell you tickets from a roll that they know has already paid out big prizes and is left with duds?

                  No, they should not be playing against their customers on scratch games.(lotto games are different and are OK to play) Not on the clock, and probably not at the store. Play at another store, that's fine. No law against that.

                  Kind of like bar servers not imbibing at the place where they serve. It should be a store policy.

                  Seriously?  Please. 
                  So many problems with your statements. 
                  We aren't allowed to play on duty.  85% of customer's don't scratch and bring it back right away.  I guess were just not smart enough to smell all the winners.  What you think we keep charts of the prizes and check each one if they bring it back? 
                  Trust me the clerks do no better than the customers.

                    imagine's avatar - WINGS

                    United States
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                    January 7, 2010
                    102 Posts
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                    Posted: December 3, 2013, 2:55 am - IP Logged

                    You made a very troubling admission in your last sentence. You said, "I've won more on scratchers discarded in the trash than anything I've  bought".

                    We on LP, always denegrade clerks that try to rip off customers. We sincerely hope that you don't participate in such shenanigans, just saying. It is a crime. No No

                    It's a crime to steal?  My gosh who would have thunk that.

                    If I find a ticket in the trash I enter it in the second chance draw.  I have every right to do that.  I have every right to cash it if it won.  I'm quite sure your familar with the bearer instrament rules on tickets.

                      imagine's avatar - WINGS

                      United States
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                      January 7, 2010
                      102 Posts
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                      Posted: December 3, 2013, 3:02 am - IP Logged

                      Any advantage for store clerks is virtually meaningless, and the "biggest" advantage is in games that concentrate  payouts in small prizes. Games that offer bigger prizes offer lower oddds of winning the modest prizes that, on average, occur frequently enough to offer any predictability.

                      I've hardly done an extensive search, but in NY the scratch games with the best chances of winning may have odds of about 1 in 8 to win $1. That means that, on average, you can expect 12 "winners" in each pack of 100 tickets, but you haven't actually won anything by getting your dollar back. $2 and $5 winners  may have odds as good as 1 in 20 to 25, so figure that are an average of 5 $2 and 4 $5 winners in each pack of 100. There might be a single $10 winner. That means a typical roll of $1 scratchers might have 10 tickets that let you turn a modest profit on that ticket. About half of them will only get you a $1 profit, and if you've bought more than a single ticket you've reduced your profit.

                      Most rolls won't have any winners worth more than $10. That means what's in the roll offers no insight into the chances that one of the next 5 or 10 ticets will have be a big winner.  Those tickets that only turn up once in every 1000 or 20,000 tickets are just as likely to be after 2 or 3 consecutive winners as they are to be after a string of 20 losers.

                      Now factor in the winning (and losing) tickets the clerks don't know about because the players left with them. Factor in the random spacing that  can result in 4 winners in a series of 10 tickets and no winners in a series of 10. The reality is that after a customer gets 10 consecutive losers there's a slighty better chance of finding a winner in the next 5 to 10 tickets, but only a very slight chance of  doing better than break even.

                      If you think  a lot of store clerks are  making $1 to $5 profits by tracking the winners and losers, and you feel that  tiny little advantage is hurting your chances of winning, perhaps you should dream big and hope for something better than one $5 prize out of every 20 tickets.

                      Thank you.  But sadly people who see this mysterious advantage will always see it.
                      It's just not a reality.   
                      We split a roll of tickets among all employees one time.  We did not make enough to win back the cost of the roll.
                      Hence why the lottery companies have such a large profit margin.

                        imagine's avatar - WINGS

                        United States
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                        102 Posts
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                        Posted: December 3, 2013, 3:17 am - IP Logged

                        Thank you.  But sadly people who see this mysterious advantage will always see it.
                        It's just not a reality.   
                        We split a roll of tickets among all employees one time.  We did not make enough to win back the cost of the roll.
                        Hence why the lottery companies have such a large profit margin.

                        Guess I should mention that we didn't have to pay for the roll.  It was a prize for the store for our lottery sales.
                        A gift to the clerks from the California lottery, a roll of California lottery scrathers.

                          Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                          Los Angeles, California
                          United States
                          Member #103813
                          January 5, 2011
                          1530 Posts
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                          Posted: December 3, 2013, 4:06 am - IP Logged

                          Any advantage for store clerks is virtually meaningless, and the "biggest" advantage is in games that concentrate  payouts in small prizes. Games that offer bigger prizes offer lower oddds of winning the modest prizes that, on average, occur frequently enough to offer any predictability.

                          I've hardly done an extensive search, but in NY the scratch games with the best chances of winning may have odds of about 1 in 8 to win $1. That means that, on average, you can expect 12 "winners" in each pack of 100 tickets, but you haven't actually won anything by getting your dollar back. $2 and $5 winners  may have odds as good as 1 in 20 to 25, so figure that are an average of 5 $2 and 4 $5 winners in each pack of 100. There might be a single $10 winner. That means a typical roll of $1 scratchers might have 10 tickets that let you turn a modest profit on that ticket. About half of them will only get you a $1 profit, and if you've bought more than a single ticket you've reduced your profit.

                          Most rolls won't have any winners worth more than $10. That means what's in the roll offers no insight into the chances that one of the next 5 or 10 ticets will have be a big winner.  Those tickets that only turn up once in every 1000 or 20,000 tickets are just as likely to be after 2 or 3 consecutive winners as they are to be after a string of 20 losers.

                          Now factor in the winning (and losing) tickets the clerks don't know about because the players left with them. Factor in the random spacing that  can result in 4 winners in a series of 10 tickets and no winners in a series of 10. The reality is that after a customer gets 10 consecutive losers there's a slighty better chance of finding a winner in the next 5 to 10 tickets, but only a very slight chance of  doing better than break even.

                          If you think  a lot of store clerks are  making $1 to $5 profits by tracking the winners and losers, and you feel that  tiny little advantage is hurting your chances of winning, perhaps you should dream big and hope for something better than one $5 prize out of every 20 tickets.

                          Doesn't sound like you have a lot of experience with scratch games.

                          Most scratch games have odds of 1-in-3 to 1-in-4 and even the $1 games (which I never play) have odds of 1-in-5. But these basic stats are not the whole story. Scratch games are different from all other lotto/draw games. They do not follow the same rules of probability and randomness that you would expect. Scratch game prizes are not random, they are a predetermined pseudo-random schedule.

                          Do you know what "minimum pack value" and "low-tier prize" means? These are specific industry terms related to scratch games. A pack of tickets will be populated with a minimum pack value of low-tier prizes. This is something that can be exploited, best by a clerk who is able to monitor the ticket redemptions.

                          Now mind you, I never said anything about profit. Not once in my entire post did I mention the word profit. I just said that you can increase your return. Increase above average, which is 60-70% prize ratio and 25-30% hit ratio. Someone using techniques to exploit the features of scratch tickets is not going to have any guaranteed profit, just a slightly better hit rate and return.

                          And for your information, I don't play for small prizes. Who does? You play for the chance at high-tier prizes, which could be anywhere. Small prizes just reduce your losses and allow you to continue to play more. Just like the small wins on PB/MM, you don't care about those, you play for the chance at winning big. Just that with scratch games you make 60-70% back while you play for a jackpot, whereas with PB/MM you make back 5-10% while playing.

                            Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                            Los Angeles, California
                            United States
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                            January 5, 2011
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                            Posted: December 3, 2013, 4:08 am - IP Logged

                            Seriously?  Please. 
                            So many problems with your statements. 
                            We aren't allowed to play on duty.  85% of customer's don't scratch and bring it back right away.  I guess were just not smart enough to smell all the winners.  What you think we keep charts of the prizes and check each one if they bring it back? 
                            Trust me the clerks do no better than the customers.

                            Sounds like you are just speaking from your own experience and are ignorant of what goes on at other stores.

                            We aren't allowed to play on duty.

                            Well, that's the whole point of this off-topic discussion isn't it?

                            Like I said, clerks shouldn't be allowed to play while on the clock by store policy. But other clerks at other stores DO play on duty. Not all, just some. And just some of those that play may use aggressive techniques to try and gain an advantage. It really depends on the store. Less often at a high traffic convenience store, more common with a low traffic liquor store or coffee shop/deli where there are lots of regulars and most players scratch in-store. I don't play at stores where I see the clerks playing.

                            Trust me the clerks do no better than the customers.

                            Yeah, I believe that you and the clerks at your store do no better than the customers who buy tickets randomly.

                            You are not the problem. Other clerks at other stores who play on duty are the problem. Why you're sticking up for them, I don't know. Just defending your industry I guess. I understand. It often gets a bad rap from thieving clerks giving players the wrong (smaller) prizes, stealing packs, micro-scratching, etc. But I'm sure not all of you are bad, just some.

                              rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                              Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
                              United States
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                              April 28, 2009
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                              Posted: December 3, 2013, 5:53 am - IP Logged

                              "one would think if you play them you should cover "every" one with at least 1 ticket no matter what's in there."

                              That's perfect strategy for those who don't understand probability and those who are addicts that have to play no matter what.  10 chances are 10 chances whether you get them by playing one chance in each of 10 drawings or 10 chances in a single drawing. Why would anyone with a lick of sense spend their money on chances for a $15 million jackpot when they can spend it on chances for a $100 million or $200 million jackpot?

                              "Why would anyone with a lick of sense spend their money on chances for a $15 million jackpot when they can spend it on chances for a $100 million or $200 million jackpot?"

                              My lick of sense would tell me to play both of 'em.

                              Cuz I'd be as happy to win $15 Million as $200 Million.

                                 
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