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$636 Million Mega Millions jackpot split by 2 tickets

Topic closed. 86 replies. Last post 3 years ago by THRIFTY.

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Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
Los Angeles, California
United States
Member #103813
January 5, 2011
1530 Posts
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Posted: December 23, 2013, 5:28 pm - IP Logged

You seem to be confused about when a jackpot run starts. It happens right after there's a winner and the jackpot is reset to the minimum, not when they change the matrix. You wouldn't be stupid enough to  say that it only took 5 drawings after the start of December, so why do you pretend it took 17 drawings?  The simple fact is that it took 22 drawings to garner a billion in sales, compared to 19 drawings to reach 1.5 billion. More drawings, smaller sales, period. The purpose of MM  is to sell tickets for the 50 cent profit they make on each one, so success is measured by total sales.

That the record run benefitted from the final rollover is irrelevant, because sales for the record jackpot were higher at every single point along the way. Similarly, that the current run would have likely reached 1.5 billion with another rollover is irrlevant, because it would then have had 4 drawings more than the record instead of 3 more. Selling 1.5 billion tickets over 23 drawings isn't better than seling 1.5 billion tickets over 19 drawings, no matter what you think your graphs are showing.

You still haven't explained why the mixed matrix prevents us from making a valid comparison. There isn't a single sales figure where the current run was better than the record run. It started out with lower sales while still using the old matrix, and sales slipped further and further behind as the jackpot increased under the new matrix. Even if you forget how long it took to reach any given point and just compare sales for similar cash value jackpots towards the end of each run,  current sales are lower. Here's  a table showing sales per million dollars of cash value for each drawing:

drawrecord sales percurrent sales percurrent as
#$ million cash$ million cash% of record
1$2,102,605$2,000,99295.2%
2$1,599,529$1,539,64396.3%
3$1,198,294$1,063,57388.8%
4$840,346$761,03890.6%
5$752,781$648,93986.2%
6$586,829$537,81891.6%
7$529,488$506,31795.6%
8$440,493$435,78498.9%
9$441,154$422,68795.8%
10$416,937$395,30794.8%
11$474,671$394,23883.1%
12$436,733$352,24280.7%
13$431,855$335,89477.8%
14$405,505$312,15377.0%
15$462,906$331,16871.5%
16$451,956$338,34474.9%
17$532,964$297,53355.8%
18$730,498$354,69448.6%
19$1,380,242$367,12726.6%
20N/A$407,188N/A
21N/A$780,058N/A
22N/A$965,353N/A

Let's remember how this all started, shall we?

Todd said: "...the jackpot total for the Tuesday drawing could wind up being something like $648 million. Not the record, but pretty close."
You said: "It's not even remotely close to a record."
I replied to you: "It was pretty close in terms of sales depending on how you looked at it. But we can't tell for sure because it was a mixed run, part old matrix, part new matrix."

Then I went on to prove how looking at just sales SINCE THE START OF THE NEW MATRIX 10/22/13 that the sales activity curve looked remarkably similar to the record $656M run of 2012. And it was only because of the 2nd to last draw having a lucky rollover that the total ballooned to $1.5B for 2012 run, and it didn't for this $648M run ending 12/17, owing to the lower total.

This whole idea that you and others have that sales are down with new matrix MM are just not supported by any facts.(yet) There are no indications of lower sales SINCE THE START OF THE NEW MATRIX 10/22/13. On the contrary, there are many indications that sales are up. But that is not a fair comparison and those results are inconclusive since it was a mix of old and new MM matrix.

And it really doesn't make sense to compare the new matrix MM to performance levels of old MM 2 or 3 years ago. That was a different time, before the MM sales decline, before jackpot fatigue and the dominance of Powerball. In order to make a proper evaluation of an introduced change, you compare it to the time period immediately preceding and leading up to the change event. And comparing the new matrix MM compared to the previous full $189M run on old matrix ending 10/1/13, sales and other metrics are all the same or higher, period.

"You seem to be confused about when a jackpot run starts."

As I said before, it depends on how you look at it. One very simple way to look at it, and this may shock you at how simple this is:

A NEW GAME started on 10/22/13, that is draw #1! Duh? How much simpler can it be? A new matrix, a new prize structure, and new annuity. The only issue is that there was $26M cash carried over from the old MM game which ended on 10/18/13 to help fund the jackpot of the new MM game. The jackpot itself is the result of 5 additional draws/rolls, but as far as the draw number, it is clear where draw #1 is. You can make other hypothetical comparisons including the previous draws as part of the current run, but that is just academic.

"You still haven't explained why the mixed matrix prevents us from making a valid comparison."

Well, as I said before, and just above, it is not a fair comparison since the new matrix MM benefitted from a boost of $26M cash jackpot carried over from the old MM game. All results for sales, cash and annuity are skewed in ANY comparison by that simple fact.

We can revisit the performance of new matrix MM in 6 to 12 months, after it has had several clean runs not encumbered by the holiday season and the mix of old and new matrix.

But I grow weary of this issue. I've made my point and have moved on, so should you. You can have the last word because my argument is complete.

    Gleno's avatar - Lottery-001.jpg
    New Jersey
    United States
    Member #80354
    September 25, 2009
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    Posted: December 25, 2013, 8:15 am - IP Logged

    The winner in GA sure has the hounds on her trail. Could not believe that someone went out to her allegged home, took pictures of it and posted  it on the internet. Not sure if  that is bordering on the invasion of privacy, because she came out in public. 

    Some folks are saying you don't need a lawyer but if she found the right one, they could have advised her about precautions to take before goig public. And yes the lawyers too are no doubt pursuing her as a client, along with hoards of financial advisors, charity causes and even some "undesireable characters". 

    Too bad folks can't have the option to keep their names from the public, in all states.

      Avatar
      NY
      United States
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      Posted: December 27, 2013, 11:45 am - IP Logged

      Let's remember how this all started, shall we?

      Todd said: "...the jackpot total for the Tuesday drawing could wind up being something like $648 million. Not the record, but pretty close."
      You said: "It's not even remotely close to a record."
      I replied to you: "It was pretty close in terms of sales depending on how you looked at it. But we can't tell for sure because it was a mixed run, part old matrix, part new matrix."

      Then I went on to prove how looking at just sales SINCE THE START OF THE NEW MATRIX 10/22/13 that the sales activity curve looked remarkably similar to the record $656M run of 2012. And it was only because of the 2nd to last draw having a lucky rollover that the total ballooned to $1.5B for 2012 run, and it didn't for this $648M run ending 12/17, owing to the lower total.

      This whole idea that you and others have that sales are down with new matrix MM are just not supported by any facts.(yet) There are no indications of lower sales SINCE THE START OF THE NEW MATRIX 10/22/13. On the contrary, there are many indications that sales are up. But that is not a fair comparison and those results are inconclusive since it was a mix of old and new MM matrix.

      And it really doesn't make sense to compare the new matrix MM to performance levels of old MM 2 or 3 years ago. That was a different time, before the MM sales decline, before jackpot fatigue and the dominance of Powerball. In order to make a proper evaluation of an introduced change, you compare it to the time period immediately preceding and leading up to the change event. And comparing the new matrix MM compared to the previous full $189M run on old matrix ending 10/1/13, sales and other metrics are all the same or higher, period.

      "You seem to be confused about when a jackpot run starts."

      As I said before, it depends on how you look at it. One very simple way to look at it, and this may shock you at how simple this is:

      A NEW GAME started on 10/22/13, that is draw #1! Duh? How much simpler can it be? A new matrix, a new prize structure, and new annuity. The only issue is that there was $26M cash carried over from the old MM game which ended on 10/18/13 to help fund the jackpot of the new MM game. The jackpot itself is the result of 5 additional draws/rolls, but as far as the draw number, it is clear where draw #1 is. You can make other hypothetical comparisons including the previous draws as part of the current run, but that is just academic.

      "You still haven't explained why the mixed matrix prevents us from making a valid comparison."

      Well, as I said before, and just above, it is not a fair comparison since the new matrix MM benefitted from a boost of $26M cash jackpot carried over from the old MM game. All results for sales, cash and annuity are skewed in ANY comparison by that simple fact.

      We can revisit the performance of new matrix MM in 6 to 12 months, after it has had several clean runs not encumbered by the holiday season and the mix of old and new matrix.

      But I grow weary of this issue. I've made my point and have moved on, so should you. You can have the last word because my argument is complete.

      "A NEW GAME started on 10/22/13, that is draw #1! Duh?"

      Duh, indeed.  Calling that the starting point of the new game may be reasonable, but  since it was preceded by 5 drawings with rollovers claiming it's the first drawing is ridiculous when you're comparing it to other jackpot runs. Are you seriously telling me that comparing a jackpot run that starts with an advertised jackpot of $55 million to one that starts at $12 million makes any sense at all?

      OTOH, that approach could explain why you've been saying that it's not valid to compare a run during which the matrix was changed to one with a constant matrix, but by insisting on starting from drawing # 6 you're trying to use the recent run as if it did have a constant matrix. The problem for your argument is that to then make a fair comparison to  sales for any previous run you need to use starting points for those runs where the advertised jackpot was already close to $55 million, too. For the record run that means ignoring the first 5 drawings, and  treating is as if the entire run was still 3 runs shorter than the 17 you want to use for the recent run. That brings us back to where we started. There simply isn't any valid argument to characterize the recent run as coming close to the previous record.

        DC81's avatar - batman39
        MI
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        August 31, 2007
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        Posted: December 27, 2013, 10:19 pm - IP Logged

        The winner in GA sure has the hounds on her trail. Could not believe that someone went out to her allegged home, took pictures of it and posted  it on the internet. Not sure if  that is bordering on the invasion of privacy, because she came out in public. 

        Some folks are saying you don't need a lawyer but if she found the right one, they could have advised her about precautions to take before goig public. And yes the lawyers too are no doubt pursuing her as a client, along with hoards of financial advisors, charity causes and even some "undesireable characters". 

        Too bad folks can't have the option to keep their names from the public, in all states.

        Why not? The fool did nothing to prepare to defend herself or her family's privacy from the nuts and crooks before putting herself out there in front of them all.

        I maintain that the second winner was ecstatic that she did it though.

        You can't predict random.

          Lucky4Life's avatar - batman14

          United States
          Member #85037
          January 7, 2010
          252 Posts
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          Posted: December 29, 2013, 1:17 pm - IP Logged

          Did the second winner ever come forward? I'm a little out of the loop.   If not I bet they are waiting until after the first.  that's what I would have done.

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            NEW YORK
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            Posted: January 2, 2014, 5:23 pm - IP Logged

            $648 Million Mega Millions jackpot split by 2 tickets?

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              Posted: January 2, 2014, 5:53 pm - IP Logged

              personally, I wish the jackpot rolled. It's going to take months for the JP to build up again.

              We will see a $600 Millions jackpot in 2015.

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                Posted: January 2, 2014, 5:56 pm - IP Logged

                I'm not sure why it takes the states so long to come up with a final jackpot tally for Mega Millions, but apparently the jackpot total for the Tuesday drawing could wind up being something like $648 million.  Not the record, but pretty close.

                It takes a while to collect billions of dollars spent to win a $648 Millions jackpot.

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                  NEW YORK
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                  Posted: January 2, 2014, 5:58 pm - IP Logged

                  Well, A bit disappointed it didn't roll at least once more but a hearty congrats to the winners!!! Be smart, careful and all the best!! I've got next!!!

                  You are experiencing Lottery Hangover.

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                    NEW YORK
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                    Posted: January 2, 2014, 6:03 pm - IP Logged

                    luck changed two human live overnight from rag to riches style . congrats to the winners

                    Playing the lottery.

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                      NEW YORK
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                      Posted: January 2, 2014, 6:05 pm - IP Logged

                      For their sake I hope they don't blow it in 5 years like many other winners!

                      Speaking of, I wish the feds mandated that all states give the option of claiming anonymously. Down here in FL, if you win you can decline to take a photo but you still have to give out your name and city. That may be fine if someone's name is John Smith but when someone's name is like, well.... MINE it would be pretty easy to figure it out.

                      Down here, I'll continue to play the state lotto which is up to 46 million for tonight.

                      They are going to spend it all, including the money that you lost playing.

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                        NEW YORK
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                        Posted: January 2, 2014, 6:08 pm - IP Logged

                        If it's in the Buckhead area the person who won can very well be from the riches side of the tracks already.    I just hope the people are under the age of fifty as I hate seeing senior citizens win.

                         

                        I was kind of shocked none of the 5 + 0 people played the Megaplier option.

                        Do not worry.You will win a lottery jackpot at the age of 90. Good luck.

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