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New multi-state lottery game launches Sunday

Topic closed. 131 replies. Last post 2 years ago by Tami333.

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RedStang's avatar - tallman zps6gf4inoc.jpg
NY
United States
Member #121961
January 21, 2012
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Posted: October 19, 2014, 1:37 pm - IP Logged

Odds of winning top prize at 1/72M for $5 = odds  of 1/360M per dollar spent
Odds of winning top prize at 1/175M for $2 = odds of 1/350M per dollar spent
Odds of winning top prize at 1/258M for $1 = odds of 1/258M per dollar spent

I'm guessing Hargrove figures players don't mind spending more as long as they are getting less. Unhappy

If these are for the Top prize, what are the odds for the second chance raffle when someone wins the TP. With two chances, each play should really only cost $2.50.

    LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
    Happyland
    United States
    Member #146344
    September 1, 2013
    1129 Posts
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    Posted: October 19, 2014, 1:53 pm - IP Logged

    If these are for the Top prize, what are the odds for the second chance raffle when someone wins the TP. With two chances, each play should really only cost $2.50.

    Because winning a club prize is conditional on the top prize being hit, it varies by sales. The formula is a little sophisticated but basically you calculate the probability of any winner(s) given the number of tickets sold and divide the result of tickets divided by prizes by that value to get the odds. For example, with $20 million in sales (4 million tickets) and 10 second-prizes, the probability of the top prize being hit would be about 5.35%, which gives $1 million prize odds of 1 in 7,478,920 (4,000,000/10 = 400,000/0.0535 = 7,476,635.51; note rounding errors due to actual % not being exactly 5.35%). This value fluctuates based on sales but mostly based on the number of second-prizes. The reason is that even if 72.3 million tickets are sold, due to duplicates the probability of a winner is actually less than 1.

    I may put up a graph showing the relationship between prizes and tickets sold.

    If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
    If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

    2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
    P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

      Gleno's avatar - Lottery-001.jpg
      New Jersey
      United States
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      September 25, 2009
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      Posted: October 19, 2014, 1:59 pm - IP Logged

      Sunday 10/19/14  2:04 PM

      Forgot to mention that we need to enter the Webcode prior to claiming a prize. "Tickets cannot be returned"

      May reconsider my original thought about not wanting to pay $5.00 a ticket...

       

      Wink

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
        United States
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        March 24, 2001
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        Posted: October 19, 2014, 4:52 pm - IP Logged

        If these are for the Top prize, what are the odds for the second chance raffle when someone wins the TP. With two chances, each play should really only cost $2.50.

        I would be surprised if the website of states offering this game doesn't put up some guesstimations of those odds.  Surely they wouldn't expect their average players to calculate those odds on their own.

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

          LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
          Happyland
          United States
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          Posted: October 19, 2014, 5:55 pm - IP Logged

          I would be surprised if the website of states offering this game doesn't put up some guesstimations of those odds.  Surely they wouldn't expect their average players to calculate those odds on their own.

          The problem with that is by advertising dynamic odds, the odds would inherently change. If a player sees odds of 1 in 2 million and decides to buy a ticket then that would subsequently change the odds (and on and on). It opens up the lottery to liability with false advertising etc. Plus, it would have the same effect as the rolling jackpots. Players would just wait to play until the odds are good (much like they wait until the jackpot is "big" enough). For the lottery it is just simpler this way. Originally they lumped the odds as equivalent to winning the jackpot but they either read my concerns(s) or someone pointed out that that wasn't true.

          Here's a [rough] graph I put together quickly showing how the odds change with the increase in club prizes:

          As I alluded earlier, it is not as simple as dividing the tickets sold by the number of prizes. The probability of a jackpot winner and hence the probability of getting the opportunity to participate in the second drawing are directly related to the number of tickets sold. Of course, it should be expected that MORE than 5 million tickets would be sold if 100+ prizes were available but I kept it constant to avoid a 3D plot. The lottery expects the "50/50 chance" hit point to be about 77 prizes.

          Seeing this chart, some players (like me) may get the idea of sitting out until the odds are in favor (+EV); however, based on my calculations this will only occur less than 5% of the time (maybe once a year at most) and is basically akin to sitting out for larger jackpots in MM and PB.

          If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
          If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

          2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
          P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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            NY
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            Posted: October 19, 2014, 7:22 pm - IP Logged

            "Your estimate of tickets sold to $1 million prizes available is highly underestimated. If they sold 24 million tickets the number of Club prizes would be greater than 10 or 12 (closer to 23-24). "

            The number of $1 million winners will depend on how big the jackpot is. At the maximum jackpot of $25 million there will be 16 $1 million winners. That's the maximum possible number of $1 million winners. As far as how many tickets are sold, that's gong to vary, but the fewer they sell the less likely that anyone will win $1 million. If they only sell 5 million tickets there's only a 1 in 14 chance that anyone will win $1 million, so the odds for a single ticket are 1 in 14 * 5 million tickets / # of $1 million winners.  With a possible range of 10 to 16 $1 million winners that means the odds range from 1 in 7 million to 1 in 4.48 million.

            Increasing the number of tickets sold increases the chance of  jackpot winner, and therefore $1 million winners, but each ticket has a reduced chance of being one of those $1 million winners. Instead of 10 to 16 out of 5 million it may be 10 to 16 out of 36 million. That's a range of 1 in 3.6 to 1 in 2.25 million * the 50% chance that they even have that drawing. Overall odds: 1 in 4.5 to 1 in 7.2 million.

            In the long run we should expect one jackpot winner for every 72 million tickets sold, since that's what the odds are. I've seen  nothing about when the jackpot will be increased, but I'm confident it won't increase with every drawing, but will be keyed to sales (and therefore the ability to fund the jackpot). That means I'm not really sure what te average number of $1 million prizes will be, but let's call it 14. 14 out of 72 million tickets is 1 in 5.15 million.

            "I think your odds on the PB prize are off"

            Yeah, I had a brain fart and divided by 5 instead of 2. Your odds of 1 in 2.6 million are correct, but still better than the new game.

            "Of course, it should be expected that MORE than 5 million tickets would be sold if 100+ prizes were available"

            100 prizes for 10 million tickets would mean odds of 1 in 100,000 IF there was a jackpot winner. That would be really good odds, and would mean that each $1 million prize only generated sales revenue of 1/2 million dollars. Great game for the players, but something the lottery isn't normally stupid enough to offer. The maximum of 16 $1 million prizes is based on balancing the draw of offering a lot of $1 million prizes with the requirement to fund them. FWIW, that kind of potential (though unlikely) exposure is why the All or Nothing game had to be changed.

             

            "If all you are looking at is the top prize, then this is valid.  However, this game is not designed to just have an over-the-top jackpot.  It is in response to a ton of people saying they want a game in which MANY people win SMALLER prizes."

            Everything I see about "smaller prizes" is people saying that 100 people should win $1 million instead of 1 person winning $100milion. That's pretty much what the president of the North American Lottery Group is quoted as saying" "Many times when we do research people ask us, 'Why not give away a lot of million dollar prizes?'"

            If people want to win even smaller prizes maybe somebody should tell them about scratchers.

              LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
              Happyland
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              Posted: October 19, 2014, 7:39 pm - IP Logged

              "Your estimate of tickets sold to $1 million prizes available is highly underestimated. If they sold 24 million tickets the number of Club prizes would be greater than 10 or 12 (closer to 23-24). "

              The number of $1 million winners will depend on how big the jackpot is. At the maximum jackpot of $25 million there will be 16 $1 million winners. That's the maximum possible number of $1 million winners. As far as how many tickets are sold, that's gong to vary, but the fewer they sell the less likely that anyone will win $1 million. If they only sell 5 million tickets there's only a 1 in 14 chance that anyone will win $1 million, so the odds for a single ticket are 1 in 14 * 5 million tickets / # of $1 million winners.  With a possible range of 10 to 16 $1 million winners that means the odds range from 1 in 7 million to 1 in 4.48 million.

              Increasing the number of tickets sold increases the chance of  jackpot winner, and therefore $1 million winners, but each ticket has a reduced chance of being one of those $1 million winners. Instead of 10 to 16 out of 5 million it may be 10 to 16 out of 36 million. That's a range of 1 in 3.6 to 1 in 2.25 million * the 50% chance that they even have that drawing. Overall odds: 1 in 4.5 to 1 in 7.2 million.

              In the long run we should expect one jackpot winner for every 72 million tickets sold, since that's what the odds are. I've seen  nothing about when the jackpot will be increased, but I'm confident it won't increase with every drawing, but will be keyed to sales (and therefore the ability to fund the jackpot). That means I'm not really sure what te average number of $1 million prizes will be, but let's call it 14. 14 out of 72 million tickets is 1 in 5.15 million.

              "I think your odds on the PB prize are off"

              Yeah, I had a brain fart and divided by 5 instead of 2. Your odds of 1 in 2.6 million are correct, but still better than the new game.

              "Of course, it should be expected that MORE than 5 million tickets would be sold if 100+ prizes were available"

              100 prizes for 10 million tickets would mean odds of 1 in 100,000 IF there was a jackpot winner. That would be really good odds, and would mean that each $1 million prize only generated sales revenue of 1/2 million dollars. Great game for the players, but something the lottery isn't normally stupid enough to offer. The maximum of 16 $1 million prizes is based on balancing the draw of offering a lot of $1 million prizes with the requirement to fund them. FWIW, that kind of potential (though unlikely) exposure is why the All or Nothing game had to be changed.

               

              "If all you are looking at is the top prize, then this is valid.  However, this game is not designed to just have an over-the-top jackpot.  It is in response to a ton of people saying they want a game in which MANY people win SMALLER prizes."

              Everything I see about "smaller prizes" is people saying that 100 people should win $1 million instead of 1 person winning $100milion. That's pretty much what the president of the North American Lottery Group is quoted as saying" "Many times when we do research people ask us, 'Why not give away a lot of million dollar prizes?'"

              If people want to win even smaller prizes maybe somebody should tell them about scratchers.

              The maximum of 16 $1 million prizes is based on balancing the draw of offering a lot of $1 million prizes with the requirement to fund them.

              There is no maximum on the number of $1 million prizes. Haven't you read the press releases touting the possibility of "hundreds of millionaires in a single drawing"? My info comes direct from the lottery's internal sources (MUSL). Or am I misunderstanding you? Once the jackpot is maxed out, the prize pool shifts exclusively to $1 million prizes. There IS a minimum number of increases per draw, which is 2. There is also a semi-set rollover for the jackpot so that its max is reached within 4 drawings. Those two reasons are why the article here mentions 10, 12, 14, 16 along with the jackpot amounts.

              There's nothing stupid about offering 100 prizes of $1 million because it is the result of many draw rollovers....just like big jackpots. The lottery doesn't lose.

              I don't think anybody would play a game with a $15 million cash jackpot but only a whopping 16 second-place millionaires ALL the time LOL

              If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
              If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

              2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
              P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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                frontenac, kansas
                United States
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                Posted: October 19, 2014, 8:18 pm - IP Logged

                The maximum of 16 $1 million prizes is based on balancing the draw of offering a lot of $1 million prizes with the requirement to fund them.

                There is no maximum on the number of $1 million prizes. Haven't you read the press releases touting the possibility of "hundreds of millionaires in a single drawing"? My info comes direct from the lottery's internal sources (MUSL). Or am I misunderstanding you? Once the jackpot is maxed out, the prize pool shifts exclusively to $1 million prizes. There IS a minimum number of increases per draw, which is 2. There is also a semi-set rollover for the jackpot so that its max is reached within 4 drawings. Those two reasons are why the article here mentions 10, 12, 14, 16 along with the jackpot amounts.

                There's nothing stupid about offering 100 prizes of $1 million because it is the result of many draw rollovers....just like big jackpots. The lottery doesn't lose.

                I don't think anybody would play a game with a $15 million cash jackpot but only a whopping 16 second-place millionaires ALL the time LOL

                referring to your last sentence....I would, to me thats better odds than the other big pots.  I think what the problem is with all the negative response to this game is you got a bunch of losers that have no positive attitude.  what else can i say.

                I read all these post and all were not negative but the negative ones gave their certain reasons why they not playing which is fine, everyone is entitled to their opinon.  But I am starting to suspect a lot cant afford to spend  5 bucks and blame it on the odds....the odds are betting than PB or MM

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                  Pa
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                  Posted: October 19, 2014, 9:19 pm - IP Logged

                  Lottery is out pricing tickets. I will not be playing

                    Think's avatar - lightbulb
                    Marquette, MI
                    United States
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                    Posted: October 19, 2014, 9:57 pm - IP Logged

                    Million dollar prizes after the irs, state, and local taxes are left with $660,000 for most of us....... minus any unpaid child support,  back taxes,  tickets,  etc...for others.  You have to wait 2 weeks for that money.  Is it ball dropped????????? Or computerized?????

                    Oogle

                    Ha!  You are forgetting the 3.8% extra tax that kicks in at $200,000 or $250,000 to pay for Obamacare.

                    You would get about $560,000 in Michigan before  local income taxes and before the 3.8% Obama tax.

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                      Jacksonville
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                      Posted: October 19, 2014, 11:05 pm - IP Logged

                      To answer a question that some people asked...the jackpot prize is a graduated annuity over 30 years or lump sum of a reduced amount - per the Florida lottery website: http://www.flalottery.com/mmc-howToPlay.do (look under "How to Win").  The rules/payouts will be the same for all states.

                      I'll play for a few drawings, but honestly, the top prize being paid over 30 years as a graduated annuity is not a that great especially if there is more than winner.  Then the top prize is split among all top prize winners.  Also, the $1 million winners do not pay out if a top prize is not won. 

                      I have not seen a computation on how they increase the number of $1 million winners between each rollover but I hope it is a lot more than 2 more $1 million winners per rollover.  If they are awarding 20-30 additional $1 million winners each drawing, I may keep playing.

                      I'll give them credit for adding the gameshow portion to the game, but I think I'd prefer if they saved the money and added more $1 million winners. 

                      Like others pointed out, the best time to play will probably be when the jackpot maxes out at $25 million because then the $1 million prizes kick in no matter what.

                      Good luck to everyone who gives it a go.

                        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                        mid-Ohio
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                        Posted: October 20, 2014, 7:10 am - IP Logged

                        Odds of winning top prize at 1/72M for $5 = odds  of 1/360M per dollar spent
                        Odds of winning top prize at 1/175M for $2 = odds of 1/350M per dollar spent
                        Odds of winning top prize at 1/258M for $1 = odds of 1/258M per dollar spent

                        I'm guessing Hargrove figures players don't mind spending more as long as they are getting less. Unhappy

                        It will be interesting to see how well it does in Ohio if it ever comes there.
                        Odds of winning top prize in its Classic Lotto which starts at $1M are 1/14M = odds of 1/14M per dollar spent.
                        $5 will buy five chances at those odds.

                         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                           
                                     Evil Looking       

                          jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
                          Harbinger
                          D.C./MD.
                          United States
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                          Posted: October 20, 2014, 9:04 am - IP Logged

                          If the lottery TRULY wanted to make a game that gave more prizes they would make it like a classic $1/$2 lotto 6/6 with true pari-mutuel payouts for all greater than 3 match tiers for each drawing and having the jackpot grow slower.   Of course the state/states making the percentages work for profit making it possible to fund the children's schools,  right?

                          As far as losers & winners go,  there will be many more losers than winners in this new Monopoly game.  For eg. for the $20,000 prize....odds are 1:309,663 cost = $5 per play (no options),, compared to MD bonus match 5 top prize $50,000 odds are 1;191,919 cost = $2 for 3lines and 1: 575757 cost = $1 for 1 line.   Right now MD is paying taxes and doubling prizes on Doubler tickets on BM5.   For $6 you can get better than 1 : 64,000 odds on BM5 for a $100K doubler prize taxes paid.

                           

                           

                          Idea

                            dr65's avatar - black panther.jpg
                            Pennsylvania
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                            Posted: October 20, 2014, 11:41 am - IP Logged

                            Nice they made the ticket convenient to purchase 4 draws at an easy $20. Roll Eyes I don't like the quick pick portion or

                            the prize structure. I'll play a few times at the start and a few times when the jp is high. As far as being a game

                            I'll look forward to each week..I'll stick with Cash 5 here in PA or Treasure Hunt. I do like Match 6 too, 3 lines for

                            $2 and multi ways to win.

                            Gl all in whatever you choose.

                            246 ~~ 485 ~~ 369 ~~ 890 ~~ 705 ~~ 357 ~~ 129 ~~ 165 ~  007 ~ 225 ~ 818 ~ 440 ~  7775 5557

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                              NEW YORK
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                              Posted: October 20, 2014, 12:31 pm - IP Logged

                              If all you are looking at is the top prize, then this is valid.  However, this game is not designed to just have an over-the-top jackpot.  It is in response to a ton of people saying they want a game in which MANY people win SMALLER prizes.

                              I know this personally because I get e-mails just about every day from people saying they want such a game.  During big Powerball or Mega Millions jackpot runs I can sometimes receive a dozen e-mails a day from people complaining about the big jackpot going to just one winner.

                              To these people I say don't play Mega Millions or Powerball then.  Play a game that delivers smaller prizes more often.

                              AND THAT'S WHAT THIS GAME IS.

                              This game should not even be compared to Mega Millions or Powerball.  It is completely different.  The only similarity is that all three games are played in many states.  Apart from that, they are really different.  It is a new style of game with several ways to play and win.  So I think it's going to need to time in the market before people can judge it "good" or "bad".

                              Your chances of developing a gambling addiction are greater by spending $1 on the lottery versus $5 or $10.

                              You will be playing the lottery more often, because it will be easier to spend $1 versus $5 or $10 on the lottery.

                              I do not mind spending $5 for a lottery game that allows me to win the small prizes more often. Winning small prizes more often allows you to play for free. Powerball and Mega Millions small prizes are so hard to win that playing those games very often is insane.

                              LOTTERY PLAYERS ARE FORGETTING THAT MONOPOLY MILLIONAIRES' CLUB OFFERS 9 OTHER WAYS OF WINNING PRIZES. I LOVE THE IDEA OF MATCHING 2 NUMBERS AND GETTING MY $5 BACK.