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# New multi-state lottery game launches Sunday

Topic closed. 131 replies. Last post 7 years ago by Tami333.

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 RedStangNYUnited StatesMember #121955January 21, 20123169 PostsOffline October 19, 2014, 1:37 pm⮟Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on October 18, 2014Odds of winning top prize at 1/72M for \$5 = odds  of 1/360M per dollar spent Odds of winning top prize at 1/175M for \$2 = odds of 1/350M per dollar spent Odds of winning top prize at 1/258M for \$1 = odds of 1/258M per dollar spentI'm guessing Hargrove figures players don't mind spending more as long as they are getting less. If these are for the Top prize, what are the odds for the second chance raffle when someone wins the TP. With two chances, each play should really only cost \$2.50.
 LottoMetroHappylandUnited StatesMember #146338September 1, 20131175 PostsOffline October 19, 2014, 1:53 pmQuote: Originally posted by RedStang on October 19, 2014If these are for the Top prize, what are the odds for the second chance raffle when someone wins the TP. With two chances, each play should really only cost \$2.50.Because winning a club prize is conditional on the top prize being hit, it varies by sales. The formula is a little sophisticated but basically you calculate the probability of any winner(s) given the number of tickets sold and divide the result of tickets divided by prizes by that value to get the odds. For example, with \$20 million in sales (4 million tickets) and 10 second-prizes, the probability of the top prize being hit would be about 5.35%, which gives \$1 million prize odds of 1 in 7,478,920 (4,000,000/10 = 400,000/0.0535 = 7,476,635.51; note rounding errors due to actual % not being exactly 5.35%). This value fluctuates based on sales but mostly based on the number of second-prizes. The reason is that even if 72.3 million tickets are sold, due to duplicates the probability of a winner is actually less than 1.I may put up a graph showing the relationship between prizes and tickets sold.If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does. If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?P&L % = Total Win(\$)/Total Wager(\$) - 1
 GlenoNew JerseyUnited StatesMember #80352September 25, 2009723 PostsOffline October 19, 2014, 1:59 pmSunday 10/19/14  2:04 PMForgot to mention that we need to enter the Webcode prior to claiming a prize. "Tickets cannot be returned"May reconsider my original thought about not wanting to pay \$5.00 a ticket...
 RJOh100mid-OhioUnited StatesMember #9March 24, 200120272 PostsOffline October 19, 2014, 4:52 pmQuote: Originally posted by RedStang on October 19, 2014If these are for the Top prize, what are the odds for the second chance raffle when someone wins the TP. With two chances, each play should really only cost \$2.50.I would be surprised if the website of states offering this game doesn't put up some guesstimations of those odds.  Surely they wouldn't expect their average players to calculate those odds on their own. * you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
 LottoMetroHappylandUnited StatesMember #146338September 1, 20131175 PostsOffline October 19, 2014, 5:55 pmQuote: Originally posted by RJOh on October 19, 2014I would be surprised if the website of states offering this game doesn't put up some guesstimations of those odds.  Surely they wouldn't expect their average players to calculate those odds on their own.The problem with that is by advertising dynamic odds, the odds would inherently change. If a player sees odds of 1 in 2 million and decides to buy a ticket then that would subsequently change the odds (and on and on). It opens up the lottery to liability with false advertising etc. Plus, it would have the same effect as the rolling jackpots. Players would just wait to play until the odds are good (much like they wait until the jackpot is "big" enough). For the lottery it is just simpler this way. Originally they lumped the odds as equivalent to winning the jackpot but they either read my concerns(s) or someone pointed out that that wasn't true.Here's a [rough] graph I put together quickly showing how the odds change with the increase in club prizes:As I alluded earlier, it is not as simple as dividing the tickets sold by the number of prizes. The probability of a jackpot winner and hence the probability of getting the opportunity to participate in the second drawing are directly related to the number of tickets sold. Of course, it should be expected that MORE than 5 million tickets would be sold if 100+ prizes were available but I kept it constant to avoid a 3D plot. The lottery expects the "50/50 chance" hit point to be about 77 prizes.Seeing this chart, some players (like me) may get the idea of sitting out until the odds are in favor (+EV); however, based on my calculations this will only occur less than 5% of the time (maybe once a year at most) and is basically akin to sitting out for larger jackpots in MM and PB.If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does. If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?P&L % = Total Win(\$)/Total Wager(\$) - 1