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Judge: Poker pro Ivey, pal broke gambling rules in $10M win

Topic closed. 16 replies. Last post 1 month ago by KY Floyd.

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RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
19816 Posts
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Posted: October 23, 2016, 1:37 pm - IP Logged

I suppose if someone was able to hit Pick 4 straights 2 or 3 times a week every week, they would think they were cheating

because it would be way out of the 1:10,000 odds. Or they would say the person has to be spending thousands of dollars. But

who's to say it couldn't be done, and for a lot less than would be thought. Wink

Since the states know they are only paying out a 1000 and 10000 to one the winners has to be spending thousands of dollars or discounting tickets for other winners who want to avoid reporting their winnings.   If the a state was paying out more than the odds suggest, it would probably assume some of the winners were actually beating the odds and investigate.

 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
   
             Evil Looking       

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    NY
    United States
    Member #23835
    October 16, 2005
    3474 Posts
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    Posted: October 24, 2016, 1:06 pm - IP Logged

    Lotteries may be run by bureaucrats, but that doesn't mean they're all stupid or incompetent. They (or the people they employ) understand probability, and they rely on it.  That means that they know that unlikely things can happen, so they won't freak out if somebody happens to win a low odds game a few times in a row, even if they don't think that person is just cashing tickets from somebody else. They understand that  the law of large numbers means that some people will win more than average and some will lose more than average. Above all, they understand (far better than a lot of players) that each individual win results from beating the odds. Most importantly, they know that at the end of their fiscal year games like pick 3 and pick 4 come extremely close to the 50% payout expected to result from random probability.