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Testing wheel 9,6,5,5

Topic closed. 30 replies. Last post 12 years ago by lottoarchitect.

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United States
Member #9059
November 26, 2004
128 Posts
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Posted: December 2, 2004, 8:19 pm - IP Logged





Comparing wheel 9, 6, 5, 5

Both wheels match 5 out of 5 (100%) if 5 of the wheel's 9 numbers are correct.



                         

Number distribution

                         



W.R.Wheel   Covermaster v0.55.2.0              

1     20             1     25         

2     20             2     25         

3     20             3     22         

4     20             4     24         

5     20             5     22         

6     20             6     21         

7     20             7     22         

8     20             8     22         

9     20             9     21         



                                       Tickets

World Record Wheel            30     

Covermaster                        34

Example:



Price of ticket 1 dollar                 



Prizes        3 correct     4 correct   5 correct         

                  $5              $120        $1000         

Suppose you match 5 of the wheel's 9 numbers give the next

average wins:



                                            3        4              5

World Record Wheel      14.29      10.71        1.43

Covermaster                  16.19      12.14        1.62                         



                         

                               Average win   Ticket cost        Av. Utility

W.Record Wheel        2786.65           30                  2756.65

Covermaster              3157.75           34                  3123.75

Questions:

1. Which wheel is better?

2. Why?

I don't know which wheel is better, I need your help..



Cya

El pensamiento ordena el caos..

http://1x2quinielas.blogspot.com

    lottoarchitect's avatar - waveform

    Greece
    Member #2815
    November 18, 2003
    502 Posts
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    Posted: December 3, 2004, 8:28 am - IP Logged

    You cannot evaluate which wheel is better that way.

    A rule of thumb suggests that we try to minimize our costs (reduce total tickets) and retain high hit ratios. Obviously both wheels will offer 100% hit on 5if5 condition but what are the % rates for higher divisions? We expect a 34 ticket wheel will offer a bit higher hit rates but at the same time we increase our overall cost. 99% of the time, this analogy is worse compared to the world record wheel. However, a case that BobP suggests and should be avoided is the use of a split wheel. In general, WR wheels are preferable as the increase of cost does not keep up with the increase of odds offered.

    If you have something to do, at least do it well...

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
      United States
      Member #9
      March 24, 2001
      19894 Posts
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      Posted: December 3, 2004, 9:27 am - IP Logged

      I used CoverMaster with the optimzer on as it generated the 9,6,5,5 wheel and it produce the following 31 lines.  You can check the reports for the break downs.

      1 2 3 5 6 7
      1 3 5 6 7 8
      1 3 4 5 7 9
      2 3 4 6 7 8
      1 2 3 7 8 9
      2 3 4 5 7 8
      2 3 4 7 8 9
      1 2 3 4 7 8
      2 3 4 5 6 9
      1 3 4 6 8 9
      2 3 5 6 7 9
      2 3 5 6 8 9
      3 5 6 7 8 9
      1 2 6 7 8 9
      2 4 5 7 8 9
      1 3 4 5 8 9
      3 4 5 6 7 9
      1 3 5 6 7 9
      1 4 6 7 8 9
      1 2 3 4 5 9
      1 2 3 5 6 8
      2 4 5 6 7 8
      1 4 5 6 8 9
      1 2 4 6 8 9
      1 2 4 5 7 8
      1 2 4 6 7 9
      1 2 3 4 5 6
      1 2 5 7 8 9
      1 3 4 5 6 7
      1 2 3 5 6 9
      3 4 5 6 8 9

      RJOh

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

        Hyperdimension's avatar - latest trace_171.gif

        United States
        Member #9059
        November 26, 2004
        128 Posts
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        Posted: December 3, 2004, 7:45 pm - IP Logged

        Hi,



        Apagogeas and RJOh thank you for your comments,



        Well I tested the optimized wheel RJOh shows above and get the next results:



        Number distribution:



        W.R.Wheel   Covermaster Optimized W.           

        1     20            1     21       

        2     20            2     20       

        3     20            3     22       

        4     20            4     20       

        5     20            5     22       

        6     20            6     21       

        7     20            7     20       

        8     20            8     20       

        9     20            9     20



        Suppose you match 5 of the wheel's 9 numbers give the next

        average wins:



                                                    3             4               5

        World Record Wheel           14.29      10.71        1.43

        Covermaster Optimized      14.29      10.71        1.43                     

               

        After comparing both wheels I have to say the optimize option of Covermaster gets wheels very similar to the world record wheels in number of tickets and in average wins..



        What do you think?



        Cya

        El pensamiento ordena el caos..

        http://1x2quinielas.blogspot.com

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
          United States
          Member #9
          March 24, 2001
          19894 Posts
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          Posted: December 3, 2004, 7:54 pm - IP Logged

          It has been my experience that CoverMaster will match or come within one line of any W.R. wheel I've ever seen unless you are trying to get better coverage of the lower prizes and it only takes seconds if you're dealing with less the 15 numbers.

          RJOh

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

            Avatar
            Pretoria
            South Africa
            Member #6062
            August 4, 2004
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            Posted: December 6, 2004, 9:58 am - IP Logged

            When making this wheel with Covermaster, I first managed to achieve 32 lines, then I clicked on Reset and pressed Start again - This time I achieved 31 lines. The process was repeated again and I achieved 30 lines. Here are the results:

            1 4 5 6 7 9
            1 2 3 4 8 9
            1 3 4 6 8 9
            1 3 5 6 8 9
            2 3 5 6 7 9
            1 3 4 6 7 8
            2 3 4 5 7 8
            2 4 5 7 8 9
            3 4 5 6 7 9
            1 2 3 6 7 9
            2 4 5 6 8 9
            1 2 4 5 6 8
            2 4 5 6 7 8
            1 3 5 6 7 8
            2 3 4 5 6 8
            1 2 3 4 5 6
            1 2 3 4 5 9
            1 2 4 6 7 9
            1 2 4 5 7 8
            1 3 4 7 8 9
            1 2 3 4 5 7
            2 3 4 6 7 9
            1 2 5 6 7 9
            1 2 6 7 8 9
            2 3 6 7 8 9
            1 2 3 6 7 8
            1 3 5 7 8 9
            1 2 3 5 8 9
            1 3 4 5 8 9
            4 5 6 7 8 9

            Cheers,

            Datenda

            Tata Syndicate Boss

              Hyperdimension's avatar - latest trace_171.gif

              United States
              Member #9059
              November 26, 2004
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              Posted: December 6, 2004, 9:26 pm - IP Logged

              Hi,



              Detenda, I analyzed your optimized wheel..



              The wheel has the same properties as the world record wheel, also it has the same number distribution (20 of each number) and same average wins..



              This means Covermaster could generate world record wheels..



              What do you think?



              Cya

              El pensamiento ordena el caos..

              http://1x2quinielas.blogspot.com

                Avatar
                Pretoria
                South Africa
                Member #6062
                August 4, 2004
                54 Posts
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                Posted: December 7, 2004, 2:02 am - IP Logged

                Cya,

                For the smaller wheels, Covermaster quite often equals world records. For most of the medium and all of the large wheels, the records are not equalled. I think the guys who have the world records for the larger wheels have their own software, which they will never part with.

                Cheers,

                Datenda

                Tata Syndicate Boss

                  ExpertLotto's avatar - appicon
                  Trebic
                  Czech Republic
                  Member #8380
                  November 3, 2004
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                  Posted: December 7, 2004, 6:19 am - IP Logged

                  is it a big deal to play a wheel with 33 lines instead of 30?

                  Expert Lotto Team

                    lottoarchitect's avatar - waveform

                    Greece
                    Member #2815
                    November 18, 2003
                    502 Posts
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                    Posted: December 7, 2004, 7:05 am - IP Logged
                    Quote: Originally posted by ExpertLotto on December 7, 2004

                    is it a big deal to play a wheel with 33 lines instead of 30?






                    Quite many times I have found wheels that are smaller and offer equal or even better coverage. So what's the point to spend more and gain the same (or less sometimes)? Maybe, the difference is small here but we have only 9 numbers to wheel and the C(6,9,5,5) is a construction hard to improve more. For other categories like C(6,15,4,5), the tickets generated can have a great difference and I think most wheel users are concerned about the cost of a wheel.

                    If you have something to do, at least do it well...

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                      mid-Ohio
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                      Posted: December 7, 2004, 2:42 pm - IP Logged
                      Quote: Originally posted by Datenda on December 7, 2004


                      For the smaller wheels, Covermaster quite often equals world records. For most of the medium and all of the large wheels, the records are not equalled...............

                      Datenda







                      When I've used CM on small wheels of 15 numbers or less, it has alway matched any wheel that I've found.  When I tried it on larger wheels, I've never been willing to wait for it to optimize the wheel. One time I waited four hours before shutting it down.  Maybe one day when I have 48hrs or so, I will try and see if it can match the WR 649 wheel which gurantees a match 3 in 161 lines.

                      RJOh

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking       

                        lottoarchitect's avatar - waveform

                        Greece
                        Member #2815
                        November 18, 2003
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                        Posted: December 7, 2004, 2:47 pm - IP Logged
                        Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on December 7, 2004

                        When I've used CM on small wheels of 15 numbers or less, it has alway matched any wheel that I've found. When I tried it on larger wheels, I've never been willing to wait for it to optimize the wheel. One time I waited four hours before shutting it down. Maybe one day when I have 48hrs or so, I will try and see if it can match the WR 649 wheel which gurantees a match 3 in 161 lines.






                        To save you from the time needed for that, it does not match WR for bigger wheels. I've tried that (including optimise) and also performed several manual optimizations. No matter, WR results could not occur. However it does provide WR results for small relatively wheels.

                        If you have something to do, at least do it well...

                          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                          mid-Ohio
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                          March 24, 2001
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                          Posted: December 7, 2004, 2:56 pm - IP Logged

                          Apagogeas,

                          What are the smallest number of lines you think it would list to match 3 in a 649 lottery?

                          RJOh

                           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                             
                                       Evil Looking       

                            lottoarchitect's avatar - waveform

                            Greece
                            Member #2815
                            November 18, 2003
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                            Posted: December 7, 2004, 3:05 pm - IP Logged

                            Current WR for 3if6/49 wheel is 163 lines. The bottom line could be around there. Small differences if we ever break this bound. I can't say really. What's the point of this question anyway?

                            If you have something to do, at least do it well...

                              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                              mid-Ohio
                              United States
                              Member #9
                              March 24, 2001
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                              Posted: December 7, 2004, 9:09 pm - IP Logged

                              I asked the question because I was interested in knowing how close CM could come to matching a large WR wheel if allowed to complete its optimizing process.

                              RJOh

                              P.S. I confused the WR 648 wheel (161 lines) with the WR 649 wheel (163 lines) 

                               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                                 
                                           Evil Looking