Quote: Originally posted by BobP on December 9, 2004
No offense, but you're reading the Detailed Report wrong. Based on the way you're seeing it a 6# win would be 100%
Don't take my word for it. Build a known wheel like (22,6,3,3,77) and check the detailed report to see how the chart reads with 6 correct.
6 5 4 3 % Total Acc %
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- - - 20 2464 3.30237 3.30237
- - 2 12 55440 74.30341 77.60578
- - 3 8 9240 12.38390 89.98968
- 1 0 10 7392 9.90712 99.89680
1 0 0 0 77 0.10320 100.00000
I really wouldn't believe that you could read these tables that wrong
BobP! Obviously, we cannot have 100% for a 6# in a 6 ball game (unless we play all possible tickets)!
A brief explanation of the above details so people can unerstand what they read.
The Acc% (accumulated %)column displays the total percentage of all % up to that line and should always add to 100% (the last line displays that always). It is something like a correctness check of the analysis procedure. The REAL chance of each line is the single % displayed.
Total combinations to be tested: C(22,6)=74613 in case of 6 hits in 22 numbers (the total column should add to this number too).
The above table simply says that:
1st line-> we have 2464 (out of 74613)=3.30237% combinations that give exactly 20-3#, in case we have 6 numbers correct out of 22.
2nd line-> we have 55440 (out of 74613)=74.30341% combinations that give exactly 2-4# and 12-3#, in case we have 6 numbers correct out of 22, and so on.
Obviously, the last line (with the 6# hit) means:
last line-> we have 77 (out of 74613)=0.10320% combinations that give exactly 1-6#, in case we have 6 numbers correct out of 22.
The 77 displayed in the 6# case is always equal to the total tickets played (your wheel has 77 tickets) and the chance to hit the #6 (in case we have all 6 correct numbers in 22) is 77/74613=0.10320% only.
See it the other way, if we had 100% chance, then why are the other cases displayed that do not show a 6# too?
Also, when ranges displayed like the next table [a (11,6,4,5,10) wheel] (note that the biggest displayed division in each line is always a single number),
total combinations to check =C(11,6)=462
6 5 4 3 % Total Acc %
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- - 3 4-6 80 17.31602 17.31602
- - 4 2-5 48 10.38961 27.70563
- - 5 1-4 46 9.95671 37.66234
- - 6 0-3 16 3.46320 41.12554
- - 7 0-2 5 1.08225 42.20779
- 1 1-6 2-7 228 49.35065 91.55844
- 2 3-5 0-4 20 4.32900 95.88745
- 3 1-2 4 8 1.73160 97.61905
- 4 3 0 1 0.21645 97.83550
1 0-1 0-3 4-8 10 2.16450 100.00000
e.g. the 1st line means we have 80 out of 462 total combinations that give exactly 3-4# and 4-6 3#'s. From these 80 combinations, some will return 3-4#&4-3#, some other will return 3-4#&5-3# and the rest 3-4#&6-3#. We never display the full details for ranges because we'll end up with too many lines (and cumbersome to read!).
Also, note again, the last line (and only line that displays the only 1-6# possible (we never have more than 1-6# possible), the combinations displayed are equal to the tickets played.
In short, the Acc% should not be read at all as it offers no information to the details table. Sadly it confused you so much.
Now, with a clear understanding of the details tables, what do you think of the improvements?