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Hidden opportunities within abbr. wheels

Topic closed. 55 replies. Last post 12 years ago by lottoarchitect.

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Posted: December 10, 2004, 12:27 am - IP Logged

     6         5         4         3        Total         %             Acc%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

     -         -         -         20        2464      3.30237     3.30237

     -         -         2        12       55440    74.30341    77.60578

     -         -         3         8        9240     12.38390     89.98968

     -         1        0        10        7392     9.90712      99.89680

     1        0        0         0          77        0.10320     100.00000

Hi,



BobP, the wheel 22,6,3,3, 77 tickets(no optimized wheel) if you hit 6 numbers it guarantee 20 #3 winning tickets only 3.30237% of the time, the most probable #3 winning tickets will be 12 winning numbers 74.30341% of the time with 2 #4 winning numbers..



Maybe I,m wrong..



Cya

El pensamiento ordena el caos..

http://1x2quinielas.blogspot.com

    lottoarchitect's avatar - waveform

    Greece
    Member #2815
    November 18, 2003
    502 Posts
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    Posted: December 10, 2004, 12:29 am - IP Logged
    Quote: Originally posted by Hyperdimension on December 10, 2004

         6         5         4         3        Total         %             Acc%

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

         -         -         -         20        2464      3.30237     3.30237

         -         -         2        12       55440    74.30341    77.60578

         -         -         3         8        9240     12.38390     89.98968

         -         1        0        10        7392     9.90712      99.89680

         1        0        0         0          77        0.10320     100.00000

    Hi,



    BobP, the wheel 22,6,3,3, 77 tickets(no optimized wheel) if you hit 6 numbers it guarantee 20 #3 winning tickets only 3.30237% of the time, the most probable #3 winning tickets will be 12 winning numbers 74.30341% of the time with 2 number 4..



    Maybe I,m wrong..



    Cya






    Correct .

    However, as we can see here, we always have a 3# hit as it is covered by all lines displayed. If BobP means that we have 100% guarantee to hit a 3# then ok, it is valid (I do not count the 1-6# line for that as if we win the jackpot, we really don't care for the 3# wins!! lol)

    If you have something to do, at least do it well...

      BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
      Dump Water Florida
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      Posted: December 10, 2004, 1:13 am - IP Logged

      PLEASE Please please try this before you say I'm wrong again. 

      Using CoverMaster enter
      Pool-22
      Pick-6
      Match-3
      Hits-3

      [Generate][Start][Finish] You should have a (22,6,3,3=77) wheel.

      Now click Tools on the task bar and on the drop down menu click [Find]

      On the top line of the [Find Tool] enter any six unique numbers from 01 through 22. Click [Find]

      You will get one of the win possibilities shown on the Detailed Report for six winning numbers among the 22 number field.  Count the lines you will find exactly that many of each prize tier's winning lines highlighted on the grid. 

      The top line of the Detailed Report is the Minimum Wheel Guarantee when the conditions are met.  There may be a 96.7% chance the wheel will do better (play above the minimum guarantee) but it will not and cannot do worse then the 20, 3# wins.  BobP

        BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
        Dump Water Florida
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        Posted: December 10, 2004, 1:20 am - IP Logged
        Quote: Originally posted by Hyperdimension on December 10, 2004


             6         5         4         3        Total         %             Acc%
        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             -         -         -         20        2464      3.30237     3.30237
             -         -         2        12       55440    74.30341    77.60578
             -         -         3         8        9240     12.38390     89.98968
             -         1        0        10        7392     9.90712      99.89680
             1        0        0         0          77        0.10320     100.00000


        Hi,

        BobP, the wheel 22,6,3,3, 77 tickets(no optimized wheel) if you hit 6 numbers it guarantee 20 #3 winning tickets only 3.30237% of the time, the most probable #3 winning tickets will be 12 winning numbers 74.30341% of the time with 2 #4 winning numbers..

        Maybe I,m wrong..

        Cya


        A wheel is generally described or indexed by it's minimum guarantee in books and software.  A full description of what it is capable of is always nice to have, but in this case 20, 3# wins (with 6 of the winning numbers among your 22)  is what you can rely on no matter how bad your luck, anything better is gravy.

        BobP
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          Greece
          Member #2815
          November 18, 2003
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          Posted: December 10, 2004, 1:22 am - IP Logged
          Quote: Originally posted by BobP on December 10, 2004

          PLEASE Please please try this before you say I'm wrong again.



          Using CoverMaster enter

          Pool-22

          Pick-6

          Match-3

          Hits-3



          [Generate][Start][Finish] You should have a (22,6,3,3=77) wheel.



          Now click Tools on the task bar and on the drop down menu click [Find]



          On the top line of the [Find Tool] enter any six unique numbers from 01 through 22. Click [Find]



          You will get one of the win possibilities shown on the Detailed Report for six winning numbers among the 22 number field. Count the lines you will find exactly that many of each prize tier's winning lines highlighted on the grid.



          The top line of the Detailed Report is the Minimum Wheel Guarantee when the conditions are met. There may be a 96.7% chance the wheel will do better (play above the minimum guarantee) but it will not and cannot do worse then the 20, 3# wins. BobP






          This is absolutely correct but doesn't have to do with what we talk so far. Obviously, the wheel cannot perform worse than its minimum guarantee. However, saying we can have 100% at least 1-3# win is not correct if there is at least a line in the report that displays 0 to 3# hits. Playing above its minimum guarantee, it doesn't mean the wheel retains the 20-3# hits. If we advance in hit category, eg 1-4# then 99% of the time we have less than 20-3#. Well, if we hit the 4# we don't care so much for some missing 3#'s of course

          I still expect some comments on the improvements. What do you think, do they worth the trouble?

          If you have something to do, at least do it well...

            BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
            Dump Water Florida
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            Posted: December 10, 2004, 1:35 am - IP Logged

            When there is a line with a higher prize say 6# and no 3# prize it is because all the 3# winning sub groups are in the 6# combination and the lottery will only pay the higher prize.  CoverMaster does not show wins that cannot be claimmed.  The lottery say's the lower prizes are in the higher, as part of the total, but that's another story. 

            After you make the (22,6,3,3=77) wheel enter one of the wheel's combinations into the [Find Tool] you will likely get 60, 2# wins and one jackpot as the optimal wheel isn't redundent. BobP

              lottoarchitect's avatar - waveform

              Greece
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              Posted: December 10, 2004, 1:47 am - IP Logged

              I did that but it doesn't offer more information than the details reports. All this find procedure included in the report. Well CoverMaster doesn't display hits below 3# but my program does (for pick 3/4 cases mostly) but why should we concern about 2# hits anyway on 6 ball games? Well the matter is about improvements and I think optimization is the way to go on wheel designs (when talking for WR wheels and not specific designs like the 48 ticket wheel). The idea is to find the best possible rewarding wheel for a particular type & ticket size, among all possible valid wheels. The task is not that easy of course. All I ask, is what is considered an improvement to a wheel (as I described them in previous posts).



              As for the 6# win and no 3# hits...

              optimized wheel hit 6 category hits

                   6        5        4        3          %       Total       Acc %   

              --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                   -        -        3        4-6        84    18.18182    18.18182

                   -        -        4        2-5        72    15.58442    33.76623

                   -        -        5        2-4        20     4.32900    38.09524

                   -        -        6        2         16     3.46320    41.55844

                   -        -        7        0-2        10     2.16450    43.72294

                   -        1        1-6        2-7        220    47.61905    91.34199

                   -        2        3-5        2-4        20     4.32900    95.67100

                   -        3        3        2          8     1.73160    97.40260

                   -        4        3        0          2     0.43290    97.83550

                   1        0-2        0-4        4-8        10     2.16450   100.00000\



              (Taken from the 2 wheels example before)

              Here we see we can have a 6# with several other prize divizions as well. In fact, we can have e.g. 1-6#, 2-5#, 3-4# and 5-3# at the same time. There is a winning combination that gives all these together.

              If you have something to do, at least do it well...

                BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
                Dump Water Florida
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                Posted: December 10, 2004, 2:30 am - IP Logged

                CoverMaster doesn't show 2# wins in the Detailed Report as it does in the Quick Report and the Find Tool, can't say why except it is free and the author didn't choose to put it in the versions so far. 

                The (22,6,3,3=77) wheel is suposed to be one of the most perfect wheels known and the foundation of the (49,6,3,6=163) split wheel and smaller field versions. 

                Of course it is possible to have almost anything show in the Detailed Report, just put what you want to find into the wheel and the report will show it's in there.  The question is whether it should be in there if the wheel is prefectly optomized?  Depends on the prize guarantee, right?

                Anyway, I'd rather squeeze another prize out of a wheel then another line.  BobP
                 

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                  Canada
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                  Posted: December 11, 2004, 5:32 pm - IP Logged

                  Robert,



                  It is known that the detailed report of the Covermaster

                  is *wrong* and we have discuss this some time back.



                  So on a Design(22,6,3,6)=77 using the cover(22,6,3,3)=77



                  we will have out of the 74,613 blocks the following:



                  16,632 will hit 11 of the 3 if 6

                  55,440 will hit 14

                  and only 2,464 blocks will have 20 3 if 6 hits.



                  The same of course applies on your design of 18,6,3,3...

                    lottoarchitect's avatar - waveform

                    Greece
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                    Posted: December 11, 2004, 5:42 pm - IP Logged

                    Nick Koutras,

                    I'm not sure by what means the detailed reports are wrong.

                    I have my own programs for this sort of analysis (and more detailed than covermaster does) and the results are identical which means, both programs present correct results, or both of us have written wrong code. What is wrong with the detailed reports then?

                    As for bugs, I have noticed a bug at the coverage of the quick report (on some cases of xif7) so far.

                    If you have something to do, at least do it well...

                      BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
                      Dump Water Florida
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                      Posted: December 12, 2004, 2:18 am - IP Logged
                      Quote: Originally posted by Nick Koutras on December 11, 2004


                      Robert,

                      It is known that the detailed report of the Covermaster
                      is *wrong* and we have discuss this some time back.

                      So on a Design(22,6,3,6)=77 using the cover(22,6,3,3)=77

                      we will have out of the 74,613 blocks the following:

                      16,632 will hit 11 of the 3 if 6
                      55,440 will hit 14
                      and only 2,464 blocks will have 20 3 if 6 hits.

                      The same of course applies on your design of 18,6,3,3...



                      Iliya Bluskov's Lot Book shows the same breakdown of (22,6,3,3)=77 as CoverMaster's Detailed Report, that with six winning numbers among the 22 there will be a minimum of 20, 3# hits. 

                      We shouldn't confuse this with the 96.7% chance of doing better such as 2, 4# wins or even better, each has its odds, but the complaint there is only a 3.3% chance of 20, 3# wins is mis-leading as that's the best feature, your high percentage shot at winning a larger prize !!!

                      BobP
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                        Posted: December 13, 2004, 9:31 pm - IP Logged

                        Hi,



                        The 15,6,3,4 Wheel made by Adolf Muehl has 14 lines



                        01 02 03 05 12 14

                        01 02 07 09 10 11

                        01 02 08 09 11 13

                        01 03 06 09 11 14

                        01 04 06 07 08 12

                        01 04 07 10 13 15

                        02 03 04 08 14 15

                        02 04 06 10 12 13

                        02 05 06 07 12 15

                        03 04 05 09 12 15

                        03 07 08 10 11 13

                        04 05 11 12 14 15

                        05 06 08 10 13 15

                        07 08 09 10 13 14



                        and the next Covermaster detailed report:



                             6         5         4         3           %       Total       Acc %   

                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                             -         -         -         6         14       0.27972     0.27972

                             -         -         -         7         128     2.55744     2.83716

                             -         -         -         8         143     2.85714     5.69431

                             -         -         -         9         47       0.93906     6.63337

                             -         -         1        3-9      1640   32.76723   39.40060

                             -         -         2        1-8      1645   32.86713   72.26773

                             -         -         3        1-6      539     10.76923   83.03696

                             -         -         4        0-5      81       1.61838     84.65534

                             -         -         5        1-3      9         0.17982     84.83516

                             -         -         6        0         1          0.01998    84.85514

                             -         1        0-4     0-7      732     14.62537   99.48052

                             -         2        0-2     1-5      12       0.23976     99.72028

                             1        0        0-1     3-6      14       0.27972    100.00000

                        I want to compare this wheel with the 15,6,3,4, in 15 lines.. (see next post)

                        El pensamiento ordena el caos..

                        http://1x2quinielas.blogspot.com

                          Hyperdimension's avatar - latest trace_171.gif

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                          Posted: December 13, 2004, 9:32 pm - IP Logged

                          Continue with the experiment..



                          Peter Rosendahl special section page has the next wheel 15,6,3,4 in 15 lines



                          1 2 3 4 5 6

                          1 2 3 4 5 7

                          1 2 3 4 5 8

                          1 2 3 4 5 9

                          1 2 3 4 5 10

                          6 7 8 9 10 11

                          6 7 8 9 10 12

                          6 7 8 9 10 13

                          6 7 8 9 10 14

                          6 7 8 9 10 15

                          1 11 12 13 14 15

                          2 11 12 13 14 15

                          3 11 12 13 14 15

                          4 11 12 13 14 15

                          5 11 12 13 14 15

                          But he says it has other advantages (hidden opportunities?), here the Covermaster detailed report:



                               6         5         4         3           %       Total       Acc %   

                          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                               -         -         -         6        1000    19.98002    19.98002

                               -         -         1         7        1500    29.97003    49.95005

                               -         -         2         4        1500    29.97003    79.92008

                               -         -         3         7         300     5.99401    85.91409

                               -         -         5         4         150     2.99700    88.91109

                               -         1         4         0         375     7.49251    96.40360

                               -         2         3         0         150     2.99700    99.40060

                               -         5         0         0          15     0.29970    99.70030

                               1         4         0         0          15     0.29970   100.00000



                          What do you see to think that the C(15,6,3,4)=15 wheel is better than the C(15,6,3,4)=14? What are the hidden advantages?



                          I need your help



                          Regards

                          El pensamiento ordena el caos..

                          http://1x2quinielas.blogspot.com

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                            Greece
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                            Posted: December 13, 2004, 10:15 pm - IP Logged

                            Well, you should not compare different wheels. The inclusion of a line can make a huge difference. Also, regarding the hidden opportunities, you have to generate a full report on all win cases. These are wheel 3if4 and you display the 6 hit category only.

                            If you have something to do, at least do it well...

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                              Canada
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                              Posted: December 14, 2004, 1:24 am - IP Logged
                              Quote: Originally posted by Hyperdimension on December 13, 2004

                              Hi,



                              The 15,6,3,4 Wheel made by Adolf Muehl has 14 lines



                              01 02 03 05 12 14

                              01 02 07 09 10 11

                              01 02 08 09 11 13

                              01 03 06 09 11 14

                              01 04 06 07 08 12

                              01 04 07 10 13 15

                              02 03 04 08 14 15

                              02 04 06 10 12 13

                              02 05 06 07 12 15

                              03 04 05 09 12 15

                              03 07 08 10 11 13

                              04 05 11 12 14 15

                              05 06 08 10 13 15

                              07 08 09 10 13 14



                              and the next Covermaster detailed report:



                                   6         5         4         3           %       Total       Acc %   

                              --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                   -         -         -         6         14       0.27972     0.27972

                                   -         -         -         7         128     2.55744     2.83716

                                   -         -         -         8         143     2.85714     5.69431

                                   -         -         -         9         47       0.93906     6.63337

                                   -         -         1        3-9      1640   32.76723   39.40060

                                   -         -         2        1-8      1645   32.86713   72.26773

                                   -         -         3        1-6      539     10.76923   83.03696

                                   -         -         4        0-5      81       1.61838     84.65534

                                   -         -         5        1-3      9         0.17982     84.83516

                                   -         -         6        0         1          0.01998    84.85514

                                   -         1        0-4     0-7      732     14.62537   99.48052

                                   -         2        0-2     1-5      12       0.23976     99.72028

                                   1        0        0-1     3-6      14       0.27972    100.00000

                              I want to compare this wheel with the 15,6,3,4, in 15 lines.. (see next post)




                              Here is sample of *wrong* reporting of hits by covermaster

                              3=13     

                              4=194     

                              5=882     

                              6=1651     

                              7=1519     

                              8=632     

                              9=110     

                              10=4