Welcome Guest
You last visited January 17, 2017, 2:39 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

PB Drawing for Saturday 12-18-04

Topic closed. 35 replies. Last post 12 years ago by JAG331.

 Page 2 of 3

United States
Member #379
June 5, 2002
11296 Posts
Offline
 Posted: December 19, 2004, 1:34 pm - IP Logged

Haven't played Powerball since the \$171 million pot.

Virginia
United States
Member #1712
June 20, 2003
1549 Posts
Offline
 Posted: December 19, 2004, 1:35 pm - IP Logged
Quote: Originally posted by kbcherokee on December 16, 2004

Tso-gali-I

-Here are the number's in my "Wheel" for Saturday-

45, 40, 43, 04, 14, 47, 36, 42, 49, 35, 03 and 13

My probable PB number's = 04, 07, 19, 20, 37 and 38

"Good luck to all of you"

Chief

All I could come up with this time was the #45.

May the warm winds of heaven blow softly upon your house. May  the Great Spirit bless all who enter there. May your mocassins make happy tracks in many snows. And may the rainbow always touch your shoulder.

United States
Member #379
June 5, 2002
11296 Posts
Offline
 Posted: December 19, 2004, 3:48 pm - IP Logged

Sorry you couldn't do better.

Greenwich, CT
United States
Member #4793
May 24, 2004
1822 Posts
Offline
 Posted: December 19, 2004, 4:59 pm - IP Logged

Aye, thanks for clarifying.  Correct, I rounded the 1:11,388 chance of matching all 5 drawn among 10 numbers.  It is slightly tougher to match JUST 5 and not the Powerball, than it is to just Match 5.  42/41 = 2,939,677/2,869,685.  Your odds of matching 5 (regardless of PowerBall) are still 53!/(5!*48!) = 1:2,869,685.  It's along the same lines of why the odds of matching JUST the Powerball are not 1:42, they are 1:70.

As for the numbers drawn, while I pegged the 25 and 29, I KNEW I should've gone for the 30.  I had 30 as my PB instead.

Good luck on Wednesday.

Lee's Summit, Mo.
United States
Member #6519
August 26, 2004
192 Posts
Offline
 Posted: December 19, 2004, 4:59 pm - IP Logged

I also had 2 hits on Saturday.  1 and 30.

Let's get back to the odds of having selecting 10 numbers.  I'm no matematician but it doesn't seem possible to reduce the odds from 2,9 mil down to 11 thou just by giving 5 more picks.  And if we decided to increase the number of selections allowed in our challenge from 10 #s to 20 #s, how much lower would the odds drop....and how far would the odds drop if 30 numbers were allowed in the selection?  It doesn't seem logical that you can increasethe # of sections by 5 and reduce the odds all the way down from approx 3 mil to 11,000 and then increase the allowed selections all the way up to 30 and not wipe the odds below 0 (which I understand is impossible?)

Greenwich, CT
United States
Member #4793
May 24, 2004
1822 Posts
Offline
 Posted: December 19, 2004, 5:22 pm - IP Logged

You're not reducing the odds...they remain constant.  This challenge is focused on the five white numbers.  The odds of randomly selecting 5 numbers correctly out of 53 are 1:2,869,685.  That will never change.

10 number choices is the arbitrary number we have agreed on.  It could've been 6,13,18,35,48...or any other number between 5 and 53 inclusive.  How tough is it to match all 5 numbers out of the 10 you've selected?  Odds are 1:11,387.63888.  How do you figure that out?  The odds of matching each ball.  The first number drawn,  you have a 10/53 chance of getting it correct.  The second ball, you have a 9/52 chance (only 9 of your numbers remaining, and only 52 balls in the machine).  Third ball you have a 8/51 chance, fourth: 7/50, fifth: 6/49.

(10*9*8*7*6)/(53*52*51*50*49) is the probability of that occurrence on any given selection: 0.000087814516227.  Take the inverse to get the odds: 1:11,387.63888.  In other words, if we had five predictors every PB drawing, we would match 5 of 5 in 1 out of every 2,277.5 Powerball drawings...once every 21 years, 10 months.  So, if someone does that soon, it's probably proof that they're onto something beyond random chance.

I think you should design a prediction system around whatever number of selections appeals to you.  There is nothing magical about 10 numbers....and if you were lucky enough to get all 5 drawn within your 10, your chances of winning the jackpot on a line from those 10 numbers are 1:10,584.

United States
Member #8747
November 16, 2004
213 Posts
Offline
 Posted: December 19, 2004, 7:09 pm - IP Logged

top votes: 3 13 21 32 49

1.2.3...4..5.6..7.8.9.10.1112.13...14.15..16.1718..19.20..21...22..23..24.25..26..27..28.29..30.3132....33.3435.36..37..38..39..40..41.42..43..44..45.46.47..48..49....50.51.5253..

United States
Member #4416
April 22, 2004
1075 Posts
Offline
 Posted: December 20, 2004, 3:58 am - IP Logged

JAG,

You're very good with the analysis of odds and probabilities.

For all practical purposes, there's nothing wrong with rounding the numbers.  I only mentioned that for puposes of clarification in explaining the dual matrix effect.

Are those 1:10,584 odds based on the assumption that a complete wheel of the ten numbers is used?

C'ya next challenge,

aye'

Greenwich, CT
United States
Member #4793
May 24, 2004
1822 Posts
Offline
 Posted: December 20, 2004, 9:47 am - IP Logged

Aye,

Thank you.  I don't know nearly everything about odds and probabilities, but it is fun to work with the numbers.

In response to the 10,584.  Yes, complete wheel.  252 ways to draw 5 items out of a group of 10.  Then you would have to match up each of those ways with the 42 Powerballs to ensure a jackpot win.  252*42=10,584.  \$10,584 is a small price to pay for a jackpot, and numerous wins on every tier below that.

Lee's Summit, Mo.
United States
Member #6519
August 26, 2004
192 Posts
Offline
 Posted: December 20, 2004, 1:10 pm - IP Logged

Jag

I'm not trying to be critical, but I'm not exactly clear as to what you are saying.  I know that if there were only 10 white balls and you have to select the 5 winning #s, there are 252 possible 5# combos.  I'm still trying to figure out what you mean when you say with 53 white balls, the odds are approx 11,000 to 1 if you can choose 10 balls in an effort to select the winning 5# combo?  Is that what you are saying?  If it is, then why not just pick 10 #s randomly and in one swell foop you have reduced the odds from 3mil down to 11,000.  Of, course you still have to pick the correct 5#s out of the 10(assuming the 10 include the winning 5#combo.  Its still a very long shot but it seems that you have significantly reduced the odds the original 3 mil to 1(ex the PB.

Greenwich, CT
United States
Member #4793
May 24, 2004
1822 Posts
Offline
 Posted: December 20, 2004, 2:15 pm - IP Logged

No, the odds of matching all 5 in a 5/53 game are 1:2,869,685.  That never, ever changes.

I've broken up the odds into a two-step analysis, pertinent to your challenge.  If you manage to secure all 5 numbers drawn within your 10 selected, then you've got a 1:252 shot of matching all five on any given line.  The second step is conditional upon the first. The If  odds (having all 5 numbers) are 1:11,387.63888.  The Then odds are 1:252.  11,387.63888 * 252 = 2,869,685 (subject to rounding discrepancy).  Both the If and the Then have to happen to Match 5 of 5....equaling our stated odds of 1:2,869,685.

I started this whole thing because I like to look at the odds from a few different angles.  Given random chance, when would someone match all 5 within 10 numbers?  One person, predicting one set of 10 numbers each Powerball drawing, the expected length of time is 109.1174 years.  If you started on January 1st of next year....you would expect to predict correctly 10 numbers containing all 5 in the upcoming Powerball drawing...on February 11th, 2114, around 10:30 am...give or take a year (rounding) .  I used 365.26 days/year to calculate.  Although, 2100 will not be a leap year...hmmm.

Anyway, the point I'm trying to make is that random chance is not enough for me.  Someone is going to win the lottery, but it will not be me, unless I can reduce the odds, which is what I'm always trying to do.  I think the pigskin challenge is a good test.

Lee's Summit, Mo.
United States
Member #6519
August 26, 2004
192 Posts
Offline
 Posted: December 20, 2004, 2:59 pm - IP Logged

Jag

I think you are selling us a little short.  I don't think it'll take me until 2114 to decipher the winning combo.  My problem is that I'm not a cryptographer and when you compound that by the fact that I'm not too swift on a computer, that really makes it tough on me.  But I'll get there before long.  I've never forgotten a line from a Raymond Chandler mystery-Farewell My Lovely-when a female admirer of Philip Marlowe observed...You just keep hitting between guard and tackle figuring that'll get you where you're going.  That's what I'm trying to do, figure out the best way to attack the lottery and stay with, with maybe just a little refinement along the way.  I know one thing, if I believe that these drawings are all random, I'll never get anyplace. There's a code here that I'm trying to find that will break the code.  So I'll just ignore the random number theory and just keep hitting between guard and tackle with what I figure is the best approach and hope it gets me where I'm going...the Jackpot.  In the alternative, I'll stick around til 2014 and have a sure winner by then.

Lee's Summit, Mo.
United States
Member #6519
August 26, 2004
192 Posts
Offline
 Posted: December 20, 2004, 3:14 pm - IP Logged

Maybe I should have asked if there's a cryptographer who is a member of the LP.

Greenwich, CT
United States
Member #4793
May 24, 2004
1822 Posts
Offline
 Posted: December 20, 2004, 3:34 pm - IP Logged

Pigskin,

Best of luck.

I believe drawings are random....but random is a decipherable pattern.  In the end, I think we're trying to do the same thing, by the same means.

Greenwich, CT
United States
Member #4793
May 24, 2004
1822 Posts
Offline
 Posted: December 20, 2004, 3:39 pm - IP Logged

Oh, haha, and it's also not until February of 2114 that you would hit 5 out of 10 numbers.  Hitting 5 of 5 would happen in 27,497 years, and the jackpot on average in 1,154,899 years...although it might take you 6 to 7 million years...one line out of your 10 numbers hitting + Powerball.  I think we both understand the importance of finding a code.

 Page 2 of 3