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Compute this !

Topic closed. 18 replies. Last post 12 years ago by fenris.

Page 2 of 2
New Member
Member #4249
April 5, 2004
13 Posts
Posted: December 27, 2004, 2:54 pm - IP Logged
Quote: Originally posted by WIN D on December 24, 2004

Thank you very much John. A man after my own heart and a great person to ask about the doubles question. What is the probability of back to back doubles. ....3 in a row...4 in a row? The odds on a double are 27% and average a hit every 3 or 4 days but what is the probability this will happen 2 days in a row. Thank you for your help on this John. Probability on equally like dvents is one thing .....I have posted that before, here and in my blog. This doubles thing however hurts my feelings ...LOL    

Would this be right:

Probability of a double coming up:

1) once is 0.27

2) twice in a row is 0.27*0.27=0.0729

3) three times in a row is 0.27^3 =0.019683

    johnph77's avatar - avatar
    United States
    Member #2987
    December 10, 2003
    832 Posts
    Posted: December 27, 2004, 11:54 pm - IP Logged

    WIN D -

    fenris is correct in his formulas and response, and thank you. Sorry it took me this long to get back; I was unaware a question was asked. The only caveat here is that triples (is that included in your requirement for a double?) are excluded.



    Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there..... 

    Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.


      cd_shopper's avatar - 911lotto
      New Member
      Member #9685
      December 16, 2004
      25 Posts
      Posted: December 28, 2004, 6:01 pm - IP Logged

      To Fenris: Thats correct. Thats the mathematical result. If we see the Real world drawings that vary....

      To WinD: read your inbox, ill wait for your reply.




        New Member
        Member #4249
        April 5, 2004
        13 Posts
        Posted: December 29, 2004, 10:37 am - IP Logged

        On the Flipside, you might wonder how many days a double could go with out being picked:

        If doubles were not drawn today, what is the chance that doubles will not be drawn tomorrow? In other words, what is the chance that doubles will miss twice in a row?

        (1-0.27)^2 = 0.5329

        Miss three times in a row:

        (1-0.27)^3 = 0.3890

        Miss 4 times in a row:

        (1-0.27)^4 =0.2840