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Compute this !

Topic closed. 18 replies. Last post 12 years ago by fenris.

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WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
Stone Mountain*Georgia
United States
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November 2, 2002
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Posted: December 21, 2004, 6:45 am - IP Logged

  If one only plays 6 way numbers after 2 doubles hit .....how much would that  increase  the expected 72 % hit rate for that group? After ...3 doubles in a row?

  If anyone just has some empirical data ... I guess that will do for now. Anyone??

 Thanks 

 

 

The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                              Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                              Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                       Win d    

    Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
    Chief Bottle Washer
    New Jersey
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    Member #1
    May 31, 2000
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    Posted: December 21, 2004, 9:01 am - IP Logged

    If you're looking at this mathematically, it wouldn't change the percentage at all.  Each drawing is disconnected from every other drawing. 

    It's like someone who plays roulette:  they see five blacks come up in a row, so they say the next number must be red.  Then black comes up again. 

     

    Check the State Lottery Report Card
    What grade did your lottery earn?

     

    Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
    Help eliminate computerized drawings!

      WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
      Stone Mountain*Georgia
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      Posted: December 21, 2004, 1:29 pm - IP Logged

       Todd ....please consider the source. Of course I should have said ......what is the increased probability  of the 72% 6 way group hitting after 2 doubles .

       The fella that can answer that question knows probability.... and can also compute the probability of 2 doubles hitting back to back.  Even though they are the 27% group.....probabillity of back to back doubles much lower.

        Over the years I have always said.."The Odds never change... but probability does". 

       The odds of 123  hitting 4 days in a row as a Straight....are always 1 in a thousand everyday. The probability is .....dare we say..rare? LOL  We dare ....we just can't compute it.  Shameful

       

       

      The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                    Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                    Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                             Win d    

        Avatar
        East Jordan, MI
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        Posted: December 21, 2004, 2:18 pm - IP Logged

        Win D,



        I'm getting ready for work. So I'll come back to this tonight. You are correct. Odds don't change but Probability does if using priors.



        That is the magic of using Bayesian Analysis.

          cd_shopper's avatar - 911lotto
          New Member
          Caracas
          Venezuela
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          December 16, 2004
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          Posted: December 21, 2004, 5:25 pm - IP Logged

          Hi,

          Some say that the probability to get 567 three times in a row is the same as getting any other combination.

          I dont think so, lottery companies have to had an insurance because if a number keeps coming 3 or 4 times then people will play it in the 3rd and 4th time and the company and all the dealers will be broke after that.

          Here in Venezuela, they have another "insurance". They use two machines at the same time, can you believe that in two years of drawings the two machines have NEVER come with the same number? i have the database saved.

          If that is not a good "taking control" system

           then i dunno what it is

          http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/103083
            WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
            Stone Mountain*Georgia
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            Posted: December 21, 2004, 5:58 pm - IP Logged

            Cd shopper ..... Is it possible for you to know the number of times your data base has had 2 consecutive doubles? Looking for some real world results over several years. How often does that happen in your country on average per year?

             If thats possible to know ... how often do the 6way numbers that follow those 2 doubles contain a digit Zero and or a digit ONE? 

             There are 64  6 way numbers  that contain those 2 digits.

             012 013 014 015 016 017 018 019 023 024 025 026 027 028 029 034 035 036 037 038 039 045 046 047 048 049 056 057 058 059 067 068 069 078 079 089  1 23 124 125 126 127 128 129 134 135 136 137 138 139 145 146 147 148 149 156 157 158 159 167 168 169 178 179 189

             Thank you

             

             

            The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                          Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                          Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                   Win d    

              cd_shopper's avatar - 911lotto
              New Member
              Caracas
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              December 16, 2004
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              Posted: December 22, 2004, 5:37 pm - IP Logged

              Sure, i can give you all the statistic you want in a sight.

              Remember the system here:

              Two machines give 2 pick-3 numbers each every day for a total of 4 numbers per day.

              Facts have shown that machine A and B have never come with the same number (as far as my DB goes) this is exciting but not as good as to make a profit of it.

              In other hand, the Machine A can give the same number two times in a row (i will post the probability, im not at home right now) but never three times in a row (strange isnt it?).

              Im curently working on Generic Filters that can be applied to any "Random" number sequence.

              Hey im not saying its gonna work or its the right path, but it doesnt hurt to try. I've not played a cent yet and i'm not planning to play until i see a clear advantage using my method.

              Be sure to check back my thread tomorow, i will post all the probabilities of two in a row, three, four, etc... for both machines. Exact numbers, i can send you the Database if you want to.

              http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/103083

              See ya tomorrow.

                JAP69's avatar - alas
                South Carolina
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                Posted: December 22, 2004, 11:16 pm - IP Logged

                 

                Search past results provided by lottery post

                 

                58% probability of a 0 and 1 return after 2 or more doubles in the state of New Mexico during the past year.

                date skip reflects no sunday draw in N.M.


                1
                Mon, Nov 8, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 1-4-7
                Sat, Nov 6, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 2-8-2
                Fri, Nov 5, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 8-4-4
                Thu, Nov 4, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 2-2-9
                Wed, Nov 3, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 0-8-8


                2
                Mon, Oct 18, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 9-6-5
                Sat, Oct 16, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 5-8-8
                Fri, Oct 15, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 1-5-5

                3
                Thu, Oct 7, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 0-2-5
                Wed, Oct 6, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 5-9-5
                Tue, Oct 5, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 6-7-6

                4
                Tue, Sep 28, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 3-7-4
                Mon, Sep 27, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 5-6-6
                Sat, Sep 25, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 5-1-1

                5
                Sat, Aug 28, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 4-7-0
                Fri, Aug 27, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 2-2-5
                Thu, Aug 26, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 1-9-1
                Wed, Aug 25, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 1-8-1
                Tue, Aug 24, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 5-6-6

                6
                Sat, Aug 21, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 1-9-5
                Fri, Aug 20, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 0-0-6
                Thu, Aug 19, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 8-8-6

                7
                Sat, Aug 7, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 9-7-4
                Fri, Aug 6, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 7-7-1
                Thu, Aug 5, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 5-1-5
                Wed, Aug 4, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 8-8-2

                8
                Tue, Aug 3, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 2-4-9
                Mon, Aug 2, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 0-5-5
                Sat, Jul 31, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 7-7-7
                Fri, Jul 30, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 4-4-5

                9
                Fri, Jul 23, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 8-9-1
                Thu, Jul 22, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 8-7-8
                Wed, Jul 21, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 7-8-7
                Tue, Jul 20, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 3-2-2
                Mon, Jul 19, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 2-3-2
                Sat, Jul 17, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 4-4-0

                10
                Sat, Apr 17, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 6-7-1
                Fri, Apr 16, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 4-0-0
                Thu, Apr 15, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 2-5-5

                11
                Wed, Apr 7, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 5-9-6
                Tue, Apr 6, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 2-8-2
                Mon, Apr 5, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 7-4-7


                12
                Sat, Apr 3, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 6-1-2
                Fri, Apr 2, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 4-4-7
                Thu, Apr 1, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 5-2-5
                Wed, Mar 31, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 4-3-4


                13
                Fri, Mar 26, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 1-0-7
                Thu, Mar 25, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 8-3-3
                Wed, Mar 24, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 4-7-7
                Tue, Mar 23, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 9-9-6
                Mon, Mar 22, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 6-2-2
                Sat, Mar 20, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 3-3-4


                14
                Fri, Mar 5, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 8-9-6
                Thu, Mar 4, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 2-5-2
                Wed, Mar 3, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 5-5-0

                15
                Tue, Mar 2, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 9-1-2
                Mon, Mar 1, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 3-3-0
                Sat, Feb 28, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 5-9-5


                16
                Mon, Feb 16, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 8-0-6
                Sat, Feb 14, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 9-9-3
                Fri, Feb 13, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 2-4-4

                17
                Tue, Feb 3, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 8-9-0
                Mon, Feb 2, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 3-3-4
                Sat, Jan 31, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 5-5-2


                18
                Thu, Jan 15, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 8-6-3
                Wed, Jan 14, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 8-8-9
                Tue, Jan 13, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 3-1-1
                Mon, Jan 12, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 3-2-2
                 

                19
                Fri, Jan 2, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 7-8-9
                Thu, Jan 1, 2004 New Mexico Pick 3 4-1-1
                Wed, Dec 31, 2003 New Mexico Pick 3 5-8-8

                MAGA

                  JAP69's avatar - alas
                  South Carolina
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                  Posted: December 22, 2004, 11:44 pm - IP Logged

                   

                  After rereading your question it looks like I did not answer correctly.

                  MAGA

                    four4me's avatar - gate1
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                    Posted: December 22, 2004, 11:55 pm - IP Logged
                    Maryland

                     

                    12/19/04      midday   870         eve  667
                    12/20/04      midday    737       eve  225
                    12/21/04      midday   379        eve    136
                      WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                      Stone Mountain*Georgia
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                      Posted: December 23, 2004, 1:29 pm - IP Logged

                      A Numbers First for Louisiana Lottery

                      BATON ROUGE, La. (AP) _ Anyone who won the Louisiana Lottery's Pick 3 daily game earlier this week should have tried again the next night, too _ with the same numbers.

                      Zero, five and one were winners for the Louisiana Lottery's Pick 3 daily game on Tuesday. They were winners again on Wednesday.

                      "That's the first time in the near 11-year history of the lottery that that's happened for Pick 3," said lottery spokesman Dudley Lehew. "What the odds are I couldn't even begin to calculate."

                      The selection was pure coincidence because one computer randomly chose the numbers Tuesday and a second computer randomly picked the numbers again Wednesday.

                      Winners of the Pick 3 on those two nights received $40 to $290, depending on the order of the numbers and the way the numbers were selected.

                      A member of the lottery security staff, a member of the legislative auditor's office and a security guard are on hand when the numbers are drawn in Baton Rouge. Members of the public can watch the computers through a pane of glass, Lehew said.

                      Lehew said he knew the double picks could look suspicious, and said he was grateful for one thing: "I'm glad we had two different computers."

                       

                       

                       

                      The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                    Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                    Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                             Win d    

                        MADDOG10's avatar - smoke
                        Beautiful Florida
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                        Posted: December 23, 2004, 7:17 pm - IP Logged

                        geez, no wonder the bug, is having no lick down there.!

                                                                     

                                                                       "  When Injustice Becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty "

                          johnph77's avatar - avatar
                          CA
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                          Posted: December 24, 2004, 1:24 am - IP Logged

                          Any way you want to look at it, any particular number has a chance of coming out once every thousand draws. If the number 000 comes out an one day, 000 had a one in a thousand chance of coming out the very next day. It's more surprising to me that this hasn't happened at all in the Louisana Lottery's history of over 3,200 draws in their Pick 3 game.

                          A boxed number of three differing digits has a chance of repeating itself in any order once in every 166.67 draws, including the original order. Probablty would have had this dvent occur around 20 times in the Louisana Lottery's history.

                          If, however, you pick a particular number to hit two days in a row in the same order, the odds are much higher - 1,000,000::1, to be exact.

                          gl

                          john

                          Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there..... 

                          Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

                           =^.^=

                            WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                            Stone Mountain*Georgia
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                            November 2, 2002
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                            Posted: December 24, 2004, 7:44 am - IP Logged

                             Thank you very much John. A man after my own heart and a great person to ask about the doubles question. What is the probability of back to back doubles. ....3 in a row...4 in a row? The odds on a double are 27% and average a hit every 3 or 4 days but what is the probability this will happen 2 days in a row.  Thank you for your help on this John. Probability on equally like dvents is one thing .....I have posted that before, here and in my blog. This doubles thing however hurts my feelings ...LOL     

                             

                             

                            The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                          Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                          Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                                   Win d    

                              Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
                              Wisconsin
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                              March 27, 2003
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                              Posted: December 25, 2004, 3:56 pm - IP Logged
                              Quote: Originally posted by WIN D on December 23, 2004



                              A Numbers First for Louisiana Lottery

                              BATON ROUGE, La. (AP) _ Anyone who won the Louisiana Lottery's Pick 3 daily game earlier this week should have tried again the next night, too _ with the same numbers.

                              Zero, five and one were winners for the Louisiana Lottery's Pick 3 daily game on Tuesday. They were winners again on Wednesday.

                              "That's the first time in the near 11-year history of the lottery that that's happened for Pick 3," said lottery spokesman Dudley Lehew. "What the odds are I couldn't even begin to calculate."

                              The selection was pure coincidence because one computer randomly chose the numbers Tuesday and a second computer randomly picked the numbers again Wednesday.

                              Winners of the Pick 3 on those two nights received $40 to $290, depending on the order of the numbers and the way the numbers were selected.

                              A member of the lottery security staff, a member of the legislative auditor's office and a security guard are on hand when the numbers are drawn in Baton Rouge. Members of the public can watch the computers through a pane of glass, Lehew said.

                              Lehew said he knew the double picks could look suspicious, and said he was grateful for one thing: "I'm glad we had two different computers."

                               





                              We've had that happen a couple of times in Wisconsin this year alone.  Also, on Friday 12/17 541 was drawn. Then last night (Friday 12/24) 541 was drawn again.

                              This is the sort of thing that makes me frustrated!

                              ============

                              How can you tell if a politician is lying?

                              Answer: His lips are moving.