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The Math and The Lottery

Topic closed. 56 replies. Last post 11 years ago by BuzzsawAnn.

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Is Standard Numerical Analysis Enough?

It's the only sure method [ 9 ]  [9.68%]
It gets you part way there [ 41 ]  [44.09%]
It's comes up short [ 19 ]  [20.43%]
I'm still working on it [ 24 ]  [25.81%]
Total Valid Votes [ 93 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 37 ]  
JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

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Posted: May 21, 2005, 11:56 am - IP Logged

Is standard numerical and statistical analysis really the way to go for a winning system. I've read and seen alot of analysis and work put in for what result? Is it an exercise in futility or just a good way to learn your math. If you are on the pro side, what do you feel is the most beneficial analysis method?

You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
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    Posted: May 21, 2005, 1:12 pm - IP Logged

    I've read several times that two third of lottery winners used quick picks, so it's obvious that most winners don't use any type of analysis at all and do just fine. I have programs that I wrote myself to track lotteries and pick the combinations to play base on that data, but I do that because it makes playing the lotteries and losing my money more entertaining.  I matched 5of6 in the Ohio649 lottery two years ago, but I credit that to luck because I haven't done it again and I'm still using my programs.

    RJOh

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

      johnph77's avatar - avatar
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      Posted: May 22, 2005, 1:37 am - IP Logged

      I do the math because I CAN! You've never seen me post a prediction in this forum, and you never will. Even on my charts I tell the viewer that the data is for informational purposes only. You can do with it what you want.

      My interest in it was piqued when I lived back in Maryland about 15 years ago - they had the Keno game in bars and I wondered how they arrived at the payout amounts and what the actual payout percentage was. Then I took on the various lottery games there. Basically, they've released a monster - my interest hasn't waned since then. And it DOES keep my math skills sharp.

      As far as quick picks go, it would take an analysis of what percentage of people actually purchase lottery tickets using quick picks vs. the percentage of people who win using them. I don't know.

      gl

      j

      Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there..... 

      Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

       =^.^=

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
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        Posted: May 22, 2005, 6:55 pm - IP Logged

        I think players who develop systems to pick numbers hope that analyzing past lottery drawings  will give them a winning edge when picking numbers for future drawings.  Commercial programmers and system developers advertise their programs and systems will do just that.  Some posters even post that they have used these products and won money.  It's no wonder people continue  looking for a lottery program or system that will make them a lottery jackpot winner.

        RJOh 

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

          djklaugh's avatar - Lottery-031.jpg
          Portland,Oregon
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          Posted: May 28, 2005, 12:34 am - IP Logged

          Actually the way that has worked best for me.... twice in the past 4 years I've gotten 5 of 6 on the Oregon Megabucks... is to do the numerical analysis, or make wheels, or what ever.... and every once in a while I take all of the game slips (I save them) and use them like a Tarot deck.  Shuffle them really well while concentrating on what you want, divide into 3 piles, select one pile and lay out a tarot spread... then use the slips that you've laid out to play that day's game.... doesn't always work but not only have I twice won 5 of 6 I also win 4 of 6 about once a month and if I've used the Oregon kicker that multiples the prize by 4 ..... :)  

           

          Deb

          Djklaugh

            Some things have to be believed to be seen.

          "I have not failed. I have just found ten thousand things that don't work".  Thomas Edison

            doodoohead's avatar - bioresonance therapy.jpg

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            Posted: May 30, 2005, 3:04 pm - IP Logged

            Wasn't Einstein so irritated at the thought of randomness in the universe that he said, "God does not play dice with the universe"? 

            Einstein did loathe the idea that physical processes could be random. The physicist Niels Bohr, one of quantum physics' strongest proponents, once retorted the quote  mentioned above with, "Einstein, stop telling God what to do!" In 1930, Bohr forced Einstein, through a thought experiment, to accept the uncertainty principle of quantum mechanics.Einstein tried unsuccessfully for the remaining 25 years of his life to show that the world behaves predictably.—

            If you want something you have never had, then you have to do something you have never done. 

              kdsjeter's avatar - lion
              Crofton, MD
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              Posted: June 7, 2005, 2:35 pm - IP Logged

              I have found that I do a better job picking my own numbers using trends that I have learned.  I think statistical analysis helps you to that end, but relying on it too much takes your eye off the ball.

              In my opinion the quick pick algorithms used are slanted to intentionally build the jackpot pool.

              Jeter Fan

               

                johnph77's avatar - avatar
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                Posted: June 7, 2005, 5:27 pm - IP Logged

                kdsjeter -

                If that were the case there would be a much lower percentage of those using quick picks winning jackpots than have actually occurred. I'm not saying that a good system of filters can't better the odds, it's that even the best systems don't win on a regular basis - or that they can win and are winning the lower-tier prizes and have remained unpublished and unpublicized.

                gl

                j

                Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there..... 

                Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

                 =^.^=


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                  Posted: June 7, 2005, 5:41 pm - IP Logged

                  I think Quick Picks is better than picking your own in any version of lotto in a regular basis. Picking your own could mean a loss most of the time. Luck is very important.

                    lottaloot's avatar - AvatarZ56
                    Redford/MI
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                    Posted: June 7, 2005, 6:39 pm - IP Logged

                    I am finding after my hard struggle of trying to find good lottery programs to assist me with winning the lottery, that it is best to just keep a weekly or monthly tracking of the combinations whether it be by root, sum or specific number analysis.

                    At this point, I think that I have been chasing my tale trying to find good programs.  I would stay up for hours (and still do) eat, sleep & drink lottery numbers, programs, etc; yet in the last month, I am finding that just by keeping a log of what has fallen works just as well. 

                    I just like trying to create things within excel that look colorful & it's a better way to go with keeping track of so many numbers.  Plus, both the lottery & excel are like a puzzle to me and I am dying to get close to figuring them both out.

                    Kimberlee

                     

                      kdsjeter's avatar - lion
                      Crofton, MD
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                      Posted: June 7, 2005, 9:36 pm - IP Logged

                      If more people used a variety of systems I feel that over the long run they would achieve better results.  Because the quick pick computers like to repeat alot of the same numbers over and over that is why it takes longer for a jackpot winner to occur.  My theory is that if for tonights Mega Millions Drawing let say 90 % of all players sat down and did some analysis like many here (either with the aid of systems or just their own insight) that there would be a winner before next Fridays drawing of about $20 Million.

                       

                      Because so many people play quick picks, I would say 83 % (probably low, but probably not far  .... how about a survey of all players?) that is why the jackpots take so long to build up.  You may be saying, what's wrong of a big jackpot?.  With 50 % of the jackpot pool going to the States, do you think they care if the "quick pick" system is biased toward the house.

                       

                      (Just an Opinion)

                       

                      Jeter Fan

                       


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                        Posted: June 12, 2005, 1:46 pm - IP Logged

                        Interesting article. 

                         

                        lottery officials are as hip to bias as the wiseguys who write computer programs. They know if their drawings do show bias, the betting public will eventually discover it and start betting heavily on the hot numbers. That means more winners dividing up every pot, lower average payouts, and less interest (and fewer bets) on the part of gamblers. So the people in charge do all in their power to ensure that the winning numbers are as random as human ingenuity can make them.

                        One common type of state lottery uses a machine that blows numbered balls around in a glass bowl until eventually the winning numbers drop into a chute. Normally there are several machines and several sets of balls. Before each day's drawing, a preliminary lottery is held to determine which machine and which ball set to use. The public is not told which machine/ball set combo is used on any given day and in any case the ball sets are replaced periodically. So it's impossible to develop the kind of track record a bias-detecting program requires.

                         

                        http://www.straightdope.com/classics/a4_119.html

                         

                         

                          johnph77's avatar - avatar
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                          Posted: June 13, 2005, 1:38 am - IP Logged

                          lchoro -

                          But IF there is a bias such as you mention it's going to be the "wiseguys", the analysts, who find it. And it's only those who utilize "hot/hot" or "cold/cold" trending who can and will use that bias to their advantage. It won't be the Quick-Pick player.

                          But let's face it. With lottery payout percentages falling generally between 50% and 60%, you'd have to find some sort of bias to tilt the odds of winning almost 2 to 1 in order to have a chance at long-term profits. And that just doesn't happen.

                          gl

                          j

                          Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there..... 

                          Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

                           =^.^=

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                            Posted: June 14, 2005, 11:39 am - IP Logged

                            In 184 of the 280 Powerball drawings none of the numbers 03 08 12 23 36 53 came up.  Eliminating these numbers from the pool of 53 numbers could had reduced the odds of winning from 1:120M to 1:72M during those 184 draws.  I doubt if anyone takes advantage of that fact even though everyone is aware that these numbers have hit less than 20 times each during all 280 drawings because tilting the odds by 40% during 65% of the drawings is not enough to make a difference to the average lottery player.

                            RJOh

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       

                              johnph77's avatar - avatar
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                              Posted: June 14, 2005, 3:11 pm - IP Logged

                              RJOh -

                              Maybe even better than that. A 5/53 matrix without the Powerball has 2,869,685 possibilities, a 5/47 matrix (what you'd have if you removed 6 numbers - any 6 numbers) has 1,533,939 possibilities. Including the Powerball a 5/53 + 1/42 matrix has 120,526,770 possibilities, a 5/47 + 1/36 matrix has 55,222,884 possibilities - a reduction of over 50%. That means that, in theory, if you had played those possibilities in those 184 draws your payout percentage would have been over 100%. But you'd have to be a believer in cold/cold trending.....

                              Thanks for the info.

                              gl

                              j

                              Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there..... 

                              Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

                               =^.^=