Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited January 23, 2017, 9:37 am
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

MM and PB jackpots

Topic closed. 21 replies. Last post 11 years ago by ryanm.

Page 1 of 2
PrintE-mailLink

Which matrix will hit 363+ million?

MM in 5/56+1/46 [ 10 ]  [43.48%]
PB in 5/55+1/42 [ 4 ]  [17.39%]
Both [ 2 ]  [8.70%]
Neither [ 7 ]  [30.43%]
Total Valid Votes [ 23 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 1 ]  

United States
Member #16612
June 2, 2005
3493 Posts
Offline
Posted: August 28, 2005, 5:40 pm - IP Logged

I say both MM and PB will eventually reach 363+ million to pass the North American lotto jackpot history. However, I say MM will get there first because PB will have too many small jackpot winners.

    Avatar
    Morrison, IL
    United States
    Member #4657
    May 13, 2004
    1884 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: August 28, 2005, 7:23 pm - IP Logged

    Yep, Mega Millions will because of California.

    Powerball will too because of their back-loaded annuity.

      bigdaddy's avatar - aviator2 1.jpg
      BETWEEN OAKRIDGE AND WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB
      United States
      Member #1647
      June 10, 2003
      2755 Posts
      Online
      Posted: August 28, 2005, 7:50 pm - IP Logged

      mm i agree i hope i will be the first cali winner!!

      Relax,Bigdaddy has your number!!!!!

      Pi is the way...

      turning $30 or less into thousands everyday!!

      here we go steelers ..here we go---------stairway to seven 

      TIME FOR THE LOMBARDI TROPHY TO  COME  HOME..

        Avatar

        United States
        Member #1826
        July 11, 2003
        2645 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: August 28, 2005, 9:11 pm - IP Logged

        Neither. Powerball has too many lucky streaks, and Mega has too many players.

        (insert signature here)

          Avatar
          Morrison, IL
          United States
          Member #4657
          May 13, 2004
          1884 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: August 28, 2005, 10:33 pm - IP Logged

            Yeah, but Powerball's lucky streaks have historically ended every time they jacked up the matrix (at least it did for about a year after they jacked it up to 1 in 120 million).

            For some weird reason, Mega hasn't had a $300+ million run ever since they jacked up their matrix to 1 in 135 million.  That will soon change though with California on board.

            dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

            United States
            Member #2338
            September 17, 2003
            2063 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: August 29, 2005, 1:14 am - IP Logged

            Well the trick is if the new matrix can survive no one winning both jackpots in the 200-299 range. I think it's possible but very unlikely. The current run needs no winners for the next six drawings to break 300. Just can't see that happening this drawing. Maybe in a year or two.


              United States
              Member #16612
              June 2, 2005
              3493 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: August 30, 2005, 3:36 pm - IP Logged

              I say both MM and PB, but I hope that no one wins jackpot in the 200-299 million range. I hope that CA is the only jackpot winner in MM that shatters the North American jackpot record of 363 million.

                Avatar
                Greenwich, CT
                United States
                Member #4793
                May 24, 2004
                1822 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: September 2, 2005, 12:43 pm - IP Logged

                Both will eventually make it.  The odds are great!

                I'd rather win MM for $400m than PB...much greater cash value!

                  Avatar
                  Morrison, IL
                  United States
                  Member #4657
                  May 13, 2004
                  1884 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: September 4, 2005, 12:59 am - IP Logged

                    Powerball's annuity jackpot only jumped $7 million from 9/3 to 9/7!?

                    Their cash value option jumped only $4 million?

                    That's weird, because according to http://www.lottoreport.com/salescomparison.htm , the states sold over $14 million worth of Powerball tickets (not including PowerPlay) for the 9/3 drawing, and that's normal for the $53 million level, so the estimated CVO should have increased by more than $4 million.

                    Avatar
                    New Jersey
                    United States
                    Member #21206
                    September 4, 2005
                    949 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: September 5, 2005, 12:22 am - IP Logged

                    Right now, based on a current jackpot of $150,000,000, calculating from historical sales data, I'd estimate the probability of a jackpot that exceeds 300 million is roughly 1 in 4.  Whether it is likely to exceed it by 63 million, I don't know.  In this estimate I have estimated three rolls, one at 150 million dollars, one at around 180 million dollars and one at 220 million and one at close to 300 million. 

                    Even if the sales were $132,000,000, as they were for the last "great" megamillions jackpot, the $290,000,000 jackpot won in Lowell, MA, the longer odds would mean still a close to 50% probability of a rollover.

                    It seems that the additional sales in California have been offset by fewer players in other states, because of the longer odds and large jackpot jaded players, thus the old game's sales figures are modeled closely by the new game's figures.  Sales have gone up some, but not dramatically.

                    The odds of the game are now so long that even if 250,000,000 tickets were sold, there would still be a significant chance of a rollover, about 25%.  I expect that if the game is played long enough before the US currency collapses, it will have a jackpot close to half a billion dollars at least once.

                     

                     

                     

                      dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

                      United States
                      Member #2338
                      September 17, 2003
                      2063 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: September 5, 2005, 1:13 am - IP Logged

                      The odds might have changed since this unpresidented disaster really is an unknown for sales. There might me more rollovers with less sales per rollover.

                        weshar75's avatar - Lottery-042.jpg
                        Mcminnville, Oregon
                        United States
                        Member #3013
                        December 13, 2003
                        3095 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: September 5, 2005, 2:24 am - IP Logged

                        The powerball rolls of late have been under 10 million I was hoping for at least the last two rolls would have been higher than 10 million.  I guess with the cost of living from day to day going up their is less for the lottery tickets.  Maybe the odds going up had some players set against buying lottery until it is the large jackpots that everyone likes to play for.  With it taking longer to grow I wonder if that is in the favor of the player or the lottery.

                          Avatar
                          New Jersey
                          United States
                          Member #21206
                          September 4, 2005
                          949 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: September 7, 2005, 8:52 am - IP Logged

                          I'd estimate that the probability of a $300M jackpot in MM, based on a current jackpot of $170 M, is somewhere between 40% to 50% now.  There is no history for the current lottery set up - higher odds, declining buying strength, and the presence of California to look at, so it's speculative at best.

                          The $294M pot won in MA a little while back sold $132.5M tickets.  With the new odds, such a sales figure would generate slightly less than a 50% chance of a rollover.

                           

                            dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

                            United States
                            Member #2338
                            September 17, 2003
                            2063 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: September 7, 2005, 10:19 pm - IP Logged

                            I'm curious what you think the odds are of it breaking 363 miilion. Long way to go before it hits that one though.

                              Avatar
                              Morrison, IL
                              United States
                              Member #4657
                              May 13, 2004
                              1884 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: September 8, 2005, 12:38 am - IP Logged

                                If there is no winner in MM, it's only about four draws away from breaking $363 million.