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MM and PB jackpots

Topic closed. 21 replies. Last post 11 years ago by ryanm.

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Which matrix will hit 363+ million?

MM in 5/56+1/46 [ 10 ]  [43.48%]
PB in 5/55+1/42 [ 4 ]  [17.39%]
Both [ 2 ]  [8.70%]
Neither [ 7 ]  [30.43%]
Total Valid Votes [ 23 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 1 ]  
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New Jersey
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September 4, 2005
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Posted: September 8, 2005, 8:52 am - IP Logged

I'm curious what you think the odds are of it breaking 363 miilion. Long way to go before it hits that one though.

The best model we have is the performance of the old mega millions game which reached $294M before it was won by a player in Massachusetts back on July 2, 2004.  The last several jackpots in that run seem to track what is happening here:  $155M, $177M, $220M $294M parentheses showing the last three, which would need to be beat this time.  Sales were $56M, $81M and $133M. 

The overall probablility of the last three jackpots rolling over would be, at today's odds, roughly 20%.  A rollover at $295M might well produce a jackpot exceeding $363.  The probability of that jackpot rolling over at current odds, is roughly 47%, once of course you've gotten there by beating the rollover odds of the previous two draws.

    dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

    United States
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    September 17, 2003
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    Posted: September 8, 2005, 9:37 am - IP Logged

    Well 20% is far better than what the old odds would have a a chance at a large pot. I sometimes use Powerball sales for an example too. It was very accurate until the hurricane hit then the sales slowed down.

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      Morrison, IL
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      May 13, 2004
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      Posted: September 8, 2005, 1:02 pm - IP Logged

        Powerball sold only 12.9 million tickets for the $60 million jackpot!  They used to sell that many at the $20 million level!

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        New Jersey
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        Posted: September 8, 2005, 11:46 pm - IP Logged

        Here's an interesting fact:  For the drawing on May 9, 2000 that produced the $363M jackpot produced sales of $195.6M for that drawing alone.  (The total sales for the total run was about $565M.)

        At today's odds that amount of sales would have roughly a 1/3 chance of rolling over!

        There is no telling how many tickets might be sold in that case.

        The odds of there being just one winner would be slightly higher than the odds of the jackpot rolling over.  The balance of probabilities is represented by the possibility of there being more than one winner.

        So the possibility of winner bigger than Jack Whittaker is definitely a reality.  One would hope though that such a winner would manage things much better, so well in fact that everyone will have forgotten his or her name in short order.

         

         

         

         

          dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

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          Posted: September 9, 2005, 2:48 am - IP Logged

          I'm wondering from an odds perspective if less sales per rollover makes it more or less likely that the jackpot will break 300. Per drawing the odds of a winner drop but it has to survive that more drawings to get there.


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            Posted: September 29, 2005, 5:20 pm - IP Logged

            The timing of the current Powerball cycle is interesting. It might still be rolling over during my cross-country trip next month.

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              Morrison, IL
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              Posted: September 29, 2005, 7:02 pm - IP Logged

              I'm wondering from an odds perspective if less sales per rollover makes it more or less likely that the jackpot will break 300. Per drawing the odds of a winner drop but it has to survive that more drawings to get there.

                That is so true.  More drawings to get to a record jackpot means more chances for a player to get lucky before reaching a record high.