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"Taping" in advance & Conspiracy Theories

Topic closed. 42 replies. Last post 11 years ago by NoCompLotto!.

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Sparta, NJ
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Posted: October 18, 2005, 4:11 pm - IP Logged

you think they need to rig it so the jackpot rolls over?  look at the odds to win that thing something like 176 million to 1.  they built the game to be so hard to win so that it does generate huge jackpots.  nobody has to rig it.

Ding-ding-ding!  That's the answer we've been looking for -- 100% correct! Yes Nod

Enough with the simple solutions! Keep it complicated!

Cheers

|||::> *'`*:-.,_,.-:*''*:--->>> Chewie  <<<---.*''*:-.,_,.-:*''* <:::|||

I only trust myself - and that's a questionable choice


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    Posted: October 18, 2005, 4:31 pm - IP Logged

    The problem with your conspiracy scenario is that someone would eventually go to the media with a rejected payslip and cause the scandal to blow up.  The scenario would also require the lottery software download the winning numbers from the host.  My guess is that they're programmed only to send the customers' bets up to the hosts and to receive updated software only.

    The more plausibile, yet far-fetched, conspiracy scenario is that the computerized drawings are programmed to examine the database to skip those numbers that have bets.  It's much easier to rig the software in the host.

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      Louisville, KY
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      Posted: October 18, 2005, 7:26 pm - IP Logged

      The problem with your conspiracy scenario is that someone would eventually go to the media with a rejected payslip and cause the scandal to blow up.  The scenario would also require the lottery software download the winning numbers from the host.  My guess is that they're programmed only to send the customers' bets up to the hosts and to receive updated software only.

      The more plausibile, yet far-fetched, conspiracy scenario is that the computerized drawings are programmed to examine the database to skip those numbers that have bets.  It's much easier to rig the software in the host.

      I guess that someone could do that, but all the lottery would have to say is that for the "preservation of financial integrity, limits are placed on certain bets when the number of bets reaches a maximum threshold." It's all they have to do to cover their a$$es, and there's nothing the media could do about it, unless someone did some serious investigating.

      Lottery machines can be programmed to do whatever the lottery wants them to do. If it's rejecting bet slips, limiting certain numbers, what have you, it can be done. It all lies within the few simple keystrokes of a programmer being paid by a crooked state agency.

      And yes, I agree with lchoro on this... computerized drawings can be programmed to examine the central database to skip those numbers that have winning bets, regardless of how much someone somewhere says that it is not networked to any other machine. Has anyone heard of Wireless Networking??

      Kris

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        Louisville, KY
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        Posted: October 18, 2005, 7:27 pm - IP Logged

        And like I said before, I also don't think they're rigged... I know the odds are stacked WAY against you.

          TheGameGrl's avatar - character catafly.jpg
          A long and winding road
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          Posted: October 18, 2005, 9:03 pm - IP Logged

          There is a reason that skepticism exist, it keeps some folks grounded. Its plausible to conceive and venture on the realm of possibilities. I have pondered the theory more on a geographical level. More like the commission knows in advance which *machine* will spew the winning ticket. So all the other states just promote for revenue. Meanwhile some cute little rural town that had been hit by a bad crop that year gets a sole winner! Thereby they get the fifteen minutes of fame along with a good ole citizen who's willing to stick around and help his/her fellow farmers and all is well in the world. Whilst in the background the govt snickers knowing they dont have to fund the farmers this time around. As kooky as it sounds and does make for interesting read , its not impossible to have only certain QP #'s be delegated to one machine.

          PS: If I do win, I promise to get a better fitting straight jacket :)

           

          ~~Is it true, Is it kind,Is it necessary. ~~~

          christmas holly jolly numbers: 255,303,6911, 474,477 silver:47,gold:79.

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            Posted: November 7, 2005, 4:46 am - IP Logged

            I did a little research on the current auditor on MM and they were indicted by the US government(AND  FOUND GULITY!!!) a few years back just like Author Andersen-remember them-but were allowed to stay in business because shutting them down would cause more harm than good.So yes positively no bull this same firm audits the MM right NOW!!!

            My guess is they know the numbers ahead of each draw and -yes it gets worst-they send out winning numbers on the lower wins to select terminals to give select wins to certain areas that draw in the more play volume so one area gets more wins that week then those winners return and play more next week and that retailer does more business ect.In other words they have it down to a science to bring in more play volume switching areas of low wins to select retailers each week.The retailer-their bread and butter- also wins with increased traffic.

            How do they know the numbers ahead of the draw? Its how they load the matrix of balls that drop into the turning chamber-that spinning drum is more predictable than anyone realizes all it takes is loading the balls in a selected organized way so that when they drop a range of prediction is fairly certain.

            My bet is they download the database of numbers picked ahead of the draw -they know the numbers on QP will be non- playable except for the prearranged low wins then arrange the balls to drop and miss the other numbers -ding-no winner on JP. Either the auditors in on the scam or just looks the other way.I know this is sad news and I am sorry if I have cause anyone to have grief.

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              Sparta, NJ
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              Posted: November 7, 2005, 9:16 am - IP Logged

              Your second paragraph is contradicted by your third paragraph. Your cheating skills need lots of work. First they fix the possible numbers, and down load a database? Why? Just fix the number combination to start with. Lotta work for two guys. Programming a couple of million machines each and every draw. Who is doing the software changes each time? The grandson of Lee Harvey Oswald, or a group of disgruntled Cubans in the outskirts of Miami?

              Cheers

              |||::> *'`*:-.,_,.-:*''*:--->>> Chewie  <<<---.*''*:-.,_,.-:*''* <:::|||

              I only trust myself - and that's a questionable choice

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                Columbia City, Indiana
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                Posted: November 7, 2005, 9:25 am - IP Logged

                TheGameGrl says:

                "There is a reason that skepticism exist, it keeps some folks grounded. Its plausible to conceive and venture on the realm of possibilities."


                I agree.

                Public skepticism is probably the most powerful deterrent to corruption in the "Big Games" but, unless they move these drawings to Indiana, we shouldn't worry about it too much. 

                While the initial scenario outlined by NoCompLotto is certainly possible, given the right circumstances, I don't think he's (my apologies if my assumption is incorrect) suggesting it's happening now. Rather, he's asking how his fellow members would feel about a PowerBall or MegaMillions drawing taped well in advance of the actual game time. To my knowledge, both games still use mechanical draw machines, but if the current propensity toward digital lotteries continues to grow unabated, the situation really isn't that far-fetched. I'm aware that an RNG isn't requisite to the script, but it would certainly make the crime that much easier to pull off.   

                I think Todd's reference provides the perfect comparison. For those of you who aren't familiar with the 1978 movie, Capricorn One, here's a brief synopsis from IMDb's website:

                "Classic conspiracy tale about the first manned mission to Mars. All appears to be going well until the astronauts are pulled off the ship just before launch by shadowy government types and whisked off to a film studio in the desert. It transpires that the space vehicle has a major defect which NASA just daren't admit. At the studio, over a course of months, the astronauts are forced to act out the journey and the landing to trick the world into believing they have made the trip. Meanwhile, a journalist (played by [Elliot] Gould) is getting suspicious and every clue he uncovers seems to result in an attempt on his life! The astronauts are just about to splashdown when a further twist to the tale occurs, leaving them with no choice but to try and escape..."

                Generally speaking, criminals are an odd lot - prior to and during the commission of any illegal act, the notion farthest from their minds is being found out; they just can't imagine that possibility, or they simply rationalize that their plan is so clever, it doesn't seem plausible that they won't get away with it.

                This is not to say that no crime goes unsolved but, more often than not, the common perpetrator comes to realize that hindsight is 20/20 only after he's being fitted for handcuffs.

                Greed is a very powerful motivator; for those who find themselves caught in its grasp, "enough" is an unfamiliar concept. If they get away with it once, it stands to reason they can do it again. And again, and again and... Unless one or more members of the conspiracy stiffs one of the others, there is very little danger of being found out.

                Come, Pinky; we must prepare for tomorrow night...

                Jim

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                  Sparta, NJ
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                  Posted: November 7, 2005, 9:48 am - IP Logged

                  Greed is a very powerful motivator

                  Also overshadowed by envy

                  Cheers

                  |||::> *'`*:-.,_,.-:*''*:--->>> Chewie  <<<---.*''*:-.,_,.-:*''* <:::|||

                  I only trust myself - and that's a questionable choice

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                    Louisville, KY
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                    Posted: November 7, 2005, 9:55 am - IP Logged

                    Jim695 says:

                    While the initial scenario outlined by NoCompLotto is certainly possible, given the right circumstances, I don't think he's (my apologies if my assumption is incorrect) suggesting it's happening now. Rather, he's asking how his fellow members would feel about a PowerBall or MegaMillions drawing taped well in advance of the actual game time. To my knowledge, both games still use mechanical draw machines, but if the current propensity toward digital lotteries continues to grow unabated, the situation really isn't that far-fetched. I'm aware that an RNG isn't requisite to the script, but it would certainly make the crime that much easier to pull off. 

                    You are correct in your assumptions. Big Smile

                    This whole thing was just a thought that perused my head the last time the MM JP got to $250M. I didn't realize that it would go this far into analyzing the whole situation... Confused

                    But, like I said, I do wonder about these things. Kind of like wondering whether or not I still have my 2nd job (read my blog for more info).

                      jonathan's avatar - decks
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                      Posted: November 7, 2005, 11:10 am - IP Logged

                      you think they need to rig it so the jackpot rolls over?  look at the odds to win that thing something like 176 million to 1.  they built the game to be so hard to win so that it does generate huge jackpots.  nobody has to rig it.

                       

                      I agree completely. If they want to make it even harder to win powerball all they need to do is add a couple of extra balls to the mix. Translate the 'birthday problem' into powerball terms, use the average ticket sales figure in lieu of 'people in the room' and the number of possible draws as 'birthdays'. I'm guessing the average ticket sales put the odds of one of the draws matching the jackpot-winning draw somewhere in the neighborhood of 33% of the time. This would guarantee some roll-overs (which in-turn drives ticket sales, which eventually leads to a winner). The odds for winning powerball are:
                      one in 146,107,962. I think the average number of players is around 500,000.

                      I don't think many people grasp the scope of the odds, it's easier to say, "it's a conspiracy!" This goes too for people opposed to computerized lotteries. The only conspiracy is the overwhelming odds AGAINST YOU EVER WINNING! Yes, fraud can, and does, occur- but there is a big difference between being a skeptic and harboring baseless paranoia.

                      If you think the game is rigged, then don't play. It's that simple.

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                        Columbia City, Indiana
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                        Posted: November 7, 2005, 11:23 am - IP Logged

                        NCL:

                        Not to get too far off-topic, I know that PepsiCo treats their managers very well. Sadly, the same cannot be said of those prefaced with "assistant." Hang in there; you could end up making more money from your second job than you do with your primary employer.

                        The fact that this discussion has garnered the interest it has would suggest that many of us have similar thoughts and concerns. You've obviously touched a nerve somewhere, and provoked some deep, analytical thoughts (as well as some ignorant criticism) from some other members - nothing wrong with that. Personally, I enjoy this type of discussion because it brings forward thoughts from people who ordinarily don't participate, and many times they're the ones who have the most interesting comments. 

                        Go with the flow and enjoy the ride.

                        Thanks for posting such an intriguing topic!

                        Come, Pinky; we must prepare for tomorrow night...

                        Jim

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                          Posted: November 7, 2005, 11:33 am - IP Logged

                          Jonathan,

                          Everything you say is just great, up until your point about computerized lottery drawings.  There is no comparison there.

                          People who oppose computerized drawings are NOT the same bunch who think the entire lottery is a conspiracy.  People who oppose computerized drawings are a majority of players, and we include experts in the field of computers (such as myself).  We know that there are many good reasons for completely eliminating computers from the drawings, and keeping traditional mechanical lottery ball drawings.

                          Using the typical "if you don't like it don't play" notion is useless when it comes to computerized drawings, and would be a very harmful thing to do.  Computerized drawings are a relatively new idea, and a change for the worse.  Any such bad idea such be strongly advocated against, rather than just shied away from. 

                          If we don't make our strong opinions known, then before we know it, all drawings will be done on a computer, and then players who take the attitude of "if you don't like it don't play" will have nothing to play.

                          Thank God there are many people unafraid to tell the lotteries what to do with their cursed computerized drawings.

                           

                          Check the State Lottery Report Card
                          What grade did your lottery earn?

                           

                          Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
                          Help eliminate computerized drawings!

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                            Posted: November 7, 2005, 11:56 am - IP Logged

                            How do they know the numbers ahead of the draw? Its how they load the matrix of balls that drop into the turning chamber-that spinning drum is more predictable than anyone realizes all it takes is loading the balls in a selected organized way so that when they drop a range of prediction is fairly certain.

                            I am not sure I buy into that theory. I have experimented myself many times by loading my own custom ball machines I made with  a variety of different combinations, both in numerical order, and random order. I never saw a consistent favoritism either way. Granted I don't have the same machines, but still. Although I am not completely convinced that the lottery is not fixed, I do not believe they have any idea which balls are going to come up.

                            As I said previously in another thread, why would they actually risk it? The money in lawsuits would be far greater than even their highest jackpot payout ever would be. They make plenty of money as it is, too much money. I doubt they would want to jeopardize this just because they want certain people in certain areas to win. That sounds ludicrous. They don't give two craps about WHO wins, they care about the revenue the lottery is generating for THEM.

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                              Posted: November 7, 2005, 12:01 pm - IP Logged

                              I agree completely, Todd (not exactly a news flash); any lottery drawn digitally is no longer a lottery, just as a digital Kentucky Derby would no longer be a horse race.

                              How would we feel if we walked up to the blackjack table in our favorite casino but, instead of a deck of cards, we found a laptop computer at each station? Would you sit at the hundred dollar table, or head for one with a lower limit?

                              Essentially, these lotteries are nothing more than cheap video games, and the public would be better served if they were relegated to that market. I think there's a reason companies such as Activision or UbiSoft don't offer a such a game; they know it wouldn't sell. 

                              Apples and oranges? Some might see it that way, but these scenarios can't be far behind, given the RNG's increasing popularity with lottery commissions, state gaming boards and legislators. The misconception that these machines save money is ludicrous, as borne out by the inevitable loss of sales suffered when the switch is made.

                              Computers are now as necessary as telephones or automobiles and, while the technology certainly has its place in the advancement of the human condition, that technology is simply not applicable to drawing lottery numbers.

                              Come, Pinky; we must prepare for tomorrow night...

                              Jim