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"Taping" in advance & Conspiracy Theories

Topic closed. 42 replies. Last post 11 years ago by NoCompLotto!.

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jonathan's avatar - decks
New Member
Rainy Maine
United States
Member #24633
October 25, 2005
14 Posts
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Posted: November 7, 2005, 12:08 pm - IP Logged

Everything you say is just great, up until your point about computerized lottery drawings.  There is no comparison there.

Actually I take back what I said about the birthday problem. That concept defines how many tickets would have to be sold to guarantee two of the draws matched, but not necessarily matching the winning draw. Rigth gist, wrong concept.

And to clarify "This goes too for people opposed to computerized lotteries." If you're opposed to it because it is a 'black-box' and may be used/hacked to rig lotteries, I think that's baseless paranoia. As far as I'm concerened the mechanical ball machines are 'black-boxes' as well. I don't know what's going on with those balls. Regardless of the method, the house edge for lottery games is already huge and the chance for a person to be the winner is small, you don't need to rig it to strip the lottery-playing community of their money.

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    Louisville, KY
    United States
    Member #15734
    May 20, 2005
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    Posted: November 7, 2005, 2:37 pm - IP Logged

    Everything you say is just great, up until your point about computerized lottery drawings.  There is no comparison there.

    Actually I take back what I said about the birthday problem. That concept defines how many tickets would have to be sold to guarantee two of the draws matched, but not necessarily matching the winning draw. Rigth gist, wrong concept.

    And to clarify "This goes too for people opposed to computerized lotteries." If you're opposed to it because it is a 'black-box' and may be used/hacked to rig lotteries, I think that's baseless paranoia. As far as I'm concerened the mechanical ball machines are 'black-boxes' as well. I don't know what's going on with those balls. Regardless of the method, the house edge for lottery games is already huge and the chance for a person to be the winner is small, you don't need to rig it to strip the lottery-playing community of their money.

    But you also don't know what's going on inside the "black box" as well. Computerized drawings take the suspense & thrill out of a big win. If you don't have that, then why play?

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      Louisville, KY
      United States
      Member #15734
      May 20, 2005
      203 Posts
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      Posted: November 7, 2005, 2:41 pm - IP Logged

      NCL:

      Not to get too far off-topic, I know that PepsiCo treats their managers very well. Sadly, the same cannot be said of those prefaced with "assistant." Hang in there; you could end up making more money from your second job than you do with your primary employer.

      The fact that this discussion has garnered the interest it has would suggest that many of us have similar thoughts and concerns. You've obviously touched a nerve somewhere, and provoked some deep, analytical thoughts (as well as some ignorant criticism) from some other members - nothing wrong with that. Personally, I enjoy this type of discussion because it brings forward thoughts from people who ordinarily don't participate, and many times they're the ones who have the most interesting comments. 

      Go with the flow and enjoy the ride.

      Thanks for posting such an intriguing topic!

      Jim:

      You are quite welcome... this is involving my thought process as well..  Big Smile

      As for the employment issue (off-topic, I know)... Ford Motor Company pays LOTS more than Taco Bell would dream of, So I'll be staying with Ford for a long time.

      You are correct in saying that I've touched nerves... apparently more than one.

      Oh well, off to work :-0)

       

        jonathan's avatar - decks
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        Rainy Maine
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        Member #24633
        October 25, 2005
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        Posted: November 7, 2005, 3:58 pm - IP Logged

        I shouldn't post before having my morning caffeine... did I say Powerball had on average 500,000 players? That's closer to the number of average prize winners... I emailed MUSL to ask for average sales. They said it varies from drawing to drawing anywhere from 12 million to 200 million tickets, and around 2 billion a year. Going back to a birthdayish problem scenario and trying to see when given 'n' random picks (including the pick the machine makes), what are the odds of there being a match to a specific pick (i.e., the winning one). If I've got the math right the probability p(n) = 1 - (((x-1)/x)^n) where n is the number of tickes and x is the number of possibilities, in this case: 146,107,962.

        I whipped up a quick script to show the odds of there being a powerball winner in a given draw based on ticket sales. Results:

        12 million - 06.6 %
        20 million - 12.8 % (roughly the average ticket sales)
        40 million - 23.9 %
        60 million - 33.7 %
        80 million - 42.2 %
        100 million - 49.6 %
        120 million - 56.0 %
        140 million - 61.6 %
        160 million - 66.5 %
        180 million - 70.8 %
        200 million - 74.6%

        Now the formula assumes all picks are random, which is not strictly speaking true, but with Powerball claiming 70% of purchases are quick-picked I'd say these numbers are in the ball park (so to speak), especially seeing there have been, what, 14 or 15 jackpot winners in the past year?

        Please correct me if my math is wrong here!

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          New Member
          new york
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          November 7, 2005
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          Posted: November 7, 2005, 11:24 pm - IP Logged

          Keep in mind there is no programing to the individual terminals its all "served" from the main server. This weeks QP numbers are easily entered into the- selection field- of random numbers generated out at the terminals- excluding- those that complete a JP winner for that draw order.Only partial wins are ever allowed until they want a winner. As for fixing the draw and not the data base defeats the purpose for manipulating the retail outlets favoring hot/cold areas were sales volumes can be increased with partial wins.

            Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
            Chief Bottle Washer
            New Jersey
            United States
            Member #1
            May 31, 2000
            23273 Posts
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            Posted: November 8, 2005, 12:27 am - IP Logged

            Everything you say is just great, up until your point about computerized lottery drawings.  There is no comparison there.

            Actually I take back what I said about the birthday problem. That concept defines how many tickets would have to be sold to guarantee two of the draws matched, but not necessarily matching the winning draw. Rigth gist, wrong concept.

            And to clarify "This goes too for people opposed to computerized lotteries." If you're opposed to it because it is a 'black-box' and may be used/hacked to rig lotteries, I think that's baseless paranoia. As far as I'm concerened the mechanical ball machines are 'black-boxes' as well. I don't know what's going on with those balls. Regardless of the method, the house edge for lottery games is already huge and the chance for a person to be the winner is small, you don't need to rig it to strip the lottery-playing community of their money.

            No, I don't think I'm given to "baseless paranoia" as you ignorantly say.  Ignorant would be a good way to describe your short-sighted view on this, which is a sign that you may not have been "around the block" as far as lotteries are concerned.  Either too young or too inexperienced.  Probably both.

            You want to accuse me of "baseless paranoia"?  Then you better be prepared for me to spell out your inadequacies.  I don't take kindly to insults. 

            Also interesting how you didn't quote my whole message, which pointed out the dopey things you said, and how you overlooked the obvious flaws in your position.

             

            Check the State Lottery Report Card
            What grade did your lottery earn?

             

            Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
            Help eliminate computerized drawings!

              JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
              The Quantum Master
              West Concord, MN
              United States
              Member #21
              December 7, 2001
              3675 Posts
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              Posted: November 8, 2005, 12:50 am - IP Logged

              If you think about something long enough, eventually you'll find some logical argument to support your viewpoint.

              Some would call it a self reinforcing delusion, because not everyone will share the same logic.

              There is one person in this world that can convince you anything is true; yourself.

              It is not always good to believe in yourself.

              Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
              Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
              Use at your own risk.

              Order is a Subset of Chaos
              Knowledge is Beyond Belief
              Wisdom is Not Censored
              Douglas Paul Smallish
              Jehocifer

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                Sparta, NJ
                United States
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                July 9, 2005
                1977 Posts
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                Posted: November 8, 2005, 11:29 am - IP Logged

                If you think about something long enough, eventually you'll find some logical argument to support your viewpoint.

                Some would call it a self reinforcing delusion, because not everyone will share the same logic.

                There is one person in this world that can convince you anything is true; yourself.

                It is not always good to believe in yourself.

                He said, as he pulled on the rip-cord and realized Superman was a comic book.

                Cheers

                |||::> *'`*:-.,_,.-:*''*:--->>> Chewie  <<<---.*''*:-.,_,.-:*''* <:::|||

                I only trust myself - and that's a questionable choice

                  JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                  The Quantum Master
                  West Concord, MN
                  United States
                  Member #21
                  December 7, 2001
                  3675 Posts
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                  Posted: November 8, 2005, 1:46 pm - IP Logged

                  If you think about something long enough, eventually you'll find some logical argument to support your viewpoint.

                  Some would call it a self reinforcing delusion, because not everyone will share the same logic.

                  There is one person in this world that can convince you anything is true; yourself.

                  It is not always good to believe in yourself.

                  He said, as he pulled on the rip-cord and realized Superman was a comic book.

                  Ah-yeeah, you go ahead and keep on telling me that.

                  Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                  Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                  Use at your own risk.

                  Order is a Subset of Chaos
                  Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                  Wisdom is Not Censored
                  Douglas Paul Smallish
                  Jehocifer

                    Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
                    Chief Bottle Washer
                    New Jersey
                    United States
                    Member #1
                    May 31, 2000
                    23273 Posts
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                    Posted: November 8, 2005, 2:42 pm - IP Logged

                    If you think about something long enough, eventually you'll find some logical argument to support your viewpoint.

                    Some would call it a self reinforcing delusion, because not everyone will share the same logic.

                    There is one person in this world that can convince you anything is true; yourself.

                    It is not always good to believe in yourself.

                    To be honest, I have no idea who you're dissing.

                     

                    Check the State Lottery Report Card
                    What grade did your lottery earn?

                     

                    Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
                    Help eliminate computerized drawings!

                      JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                      The Quantum Master
                      West Concord, MN
                      United States
                      Member #21
                      December 7, 2001
                      3675 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: November 8, 2005, 5:07 pm - IP Logged

                      i have a few screws loose, but i still have them.

                      i haven't had time to tighten them, been too busy trying to put that square peg in the round hole.

                      Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                      Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                      Use at your own risk.

                      Order is a Subset of Chaos
                      Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                      Wisdom is Not Censored
                      Douglas Paul Smallish
                      Jehocifer

                        Avatar
                        Louisville, KY
                        United States
                        Member #15734
                        May 20, 2005
                        203 Posts
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                        Posted: November 8, 2005, 6:31 pm - IP Logged

                        Just imagine if tonight, someone from one of the member lotteries read this post and decided to try it...

                        Even if we thought about catching them on it (if they did), they would probably deny it just as they would do in the article.

                        Throw this forum at the media and there goes the scandal.

                          Avatar
                          Louisville, KY
                          United States
                          Member #15734
                          May 20, 2005
                          203 Posts
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                          Posted: November 8, 2005, 10:05 pm - IP Logged

                          If you think about something long enough, eventually you'll find some logical argument to support your viewpoint.

                          Some would call it a self reinforcing delusion, because not everyone will share the same logic.

                          There is one person in this world that can convince you anything is true; yourself.

                          It is not always good to believe in yourself.

                          I sincerely hope this is not about me and this story...

                          Let me re-iterate the 2nd line of my story: "What if, AND I STRESS "IF," The PB/MM drawings were taped in advance?"

                          This was a QUESTION, and I am not suggesting it is currently in practice (though I wouldn't doubt it if it was).