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random means it cannot be defined

Topic closed. 27 replies. Last post 11 years ago by nonlinear.

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Anna, TX
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Posted: February 13, 2006, 12:30 pm - IP Logged

Yet.

 

That is why the word random is used to define something because a pattern has yet to be detected. My opinion.

Arguing with a friend this weekend, who will not think beyond lottery is random, end of story. Which is fact to her. She tried to use the whole flipping the coin theory to prove her point.  I tried to explain to her that once you flip a coin more than one time in a setting it is no longer random.  It no longer is 50/50. Same with numbers. The thing is, that was something I didn't even think about until I was in the arguement. As she was trying to explain her whole flipping coinn thing, It just came out of my mouth. And it made sense.  Anyway it got me to researching. I finally realized why hyper had used the columns in his spreadsheet that contained formulas looking at columns with the draws and the next draw that that would of course be 0's because it hasn't happened yet. I think - he was trying to include a draw that hasn't happened yet so it would be apart of the ratio. The only problem was, when you updated the sheet with the new draw, the past "predictions" would change. Which would change your hit counter.  I have done alot this weekend with various spreadsheets and tried just inserting a blank row at the top and in include that in the formula, changed everything about what the formula looks at but hits not have changed much. Obviously, its going to take some time  working with formulas but I can do it. I have come a long way already.

Either way...I know its nothing new to most of you. But I feel enlightened.  Any thoughts? Advice?

 

    Tenaj's avatar - michellea
    Charlotte NC
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    Posted: February 13, 2006, 12:40 pm - IP Logged

    Yet.

     

    That is why the word random is used to define something because a pattern has yet to be detected. My opinion.

    Arguing with a friend this weekend, who will not think beyond lottery is random, end of story. Which is fact to her. She tried to use the whole flipping the coin theory to prove her point.  I tried to explain to her that once you flip a coin more than one time in a setting it is no longer random.  It no longer is 50/50. Same with numbers. The thing is, that was something I didn't even think about until I was in the arguement. As she was trying to explain her whole flipping coinn thing, It just came out of my mouth. And it made sense.  Anyway it got me to researching. I finally realized why hyper had used the columns in his spreadsheet that contained formulas looking at columns with the draws and the next draw that that would of course be 0's because it hasn't happened yet. I think - he was trying to include a draw that hasn't happened yet so it would be apart of the ratio. The only problem was, when you updated the sheet with the new draw, the past "predictions" would change. Which would change your hit counter.  I have done alot this weekend with various spreadsheets and tried just inserting a blank row at the top and in include that in the formula, changed everything about what the formula looks at but hits not have changed much. Obviously, its going to take some time  working with formulas but I can do it. I have come a long way already.

    Either way...I know its nothing new to most of you. But I feel enlightened.  Any thoughts? Advice?

     

    Yes NodThe way to shut people like that up is to SHOW THEM THE MONEY! 

    takeemtothebank

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      Anna, TX
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      Posted: February 13, 2006, 12:45 pm - IP Logged

      you would think just the fact I can at least "predict" one number to fall everyday without a computer was pretty good....some people!

        Raven62's avatar - binary
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        Posted: February 13, 2006, 12:47 pm - IP Logged

        Actually Random means: lack of definite aim or intention; without plan or order; haphazardly

        Over time seemingly random events take on the appearance of having a pattern, even though they do not.
        Smile

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          Anna, TX
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          Posted: February 13, 2006, 12:53 pm - IP Logged

          Actually Random means: lack of definite aim or intention; without plan or order; haphazardly

          Over time seemingly random events take on the appearance of having a pattern, even though they do not.
          Smile

          HA! true.. in a sense...That is what it means to everyone who thinks because it has yet to give a pattern it must be random. That is why the definition is written that way.

          Just because something doesn't register as a pattern you understand doesn't mean that it is not one.

          Random only happens once. After that is is a pattern defined or undefined.  It is no longer random.

            Raven62's avatar - binary
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            Posted: February 13, 2006, 2:17 pm - IP Logged

            The pattern is that it has no pattern. Wink

              Tenaj's avatar - michellea
              Charlotte NC
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              Posted: February 13, 2006, 2:57 pm - IP Logged

              you would think just the fact I can at least "predict" one number to fall everyday without a computer was pretty good....some people!

              BananaThat's is pretty good. 

              takeemtothebank

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                Anna, TX
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                Posted: February 13, 2006, 7:07 pm - IP Logged

                too bad I can't seem to get past that. LOL.

                  TheGameGrl's avatar - character catafly.jpg
                  A long and winding road
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                  Posted: February 13, 2006, 7:59 pm - IP Logged

                  ummm...not that I mastered in math but the odds do not change on a coin toss no matter how many times you flip them. each individual toss carries the same odds. Now if you want to talk about  how gravity plays a part in the toss THEN maybe an open debate could ensue. 

                  ~~Is it true, Is it kind,Is it necessary. ~~~

                  christmas holly jolly numbers: 255,303,6911, 474,477 silver:47,gold:79.

                    hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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                    Posted: February 13, 2006, 8:00 pm - IP Logged

                    been pondering random as of late...

                    to me, random means the data in a set has no correlation, EVERY number in the list is an INDEPENDENT variable. what appear to be patterns emerge over time, but in my futile study of announcers (basically, if a 9 is drawn and a 7 follows it more than every other number, then 7 should be a good bet, but it's not that easy) I have come to understand a false pattern. palindromes are actual patterns (for instance if the red ball was, in a series of 5 draws... 14,7,35,7,14    35=pivot number, the center of the palindrome) but there are no precursive events that indicate a potential palindrome.

                    false patterns are in the announcers themselves, if the last 100 draws shows a 19 being followed by a 12 in three of the draws that 19 appeared in, it looks like a safe bet, but come drawing night it all goes undone.

                    I am considering just going back to QPs for the powerball and spending more time trying to reverse-engineer the prng that PA uses for the mid-day draws, may be tough but no more difficult than trying in vain to unravel randomness itself...

                     

                    what we know about each draw BEFORE it occurs,

                    1. the DATE of the draw

                    2. the absolute minimum and maximum range of the ballset

                    that's it...

                    Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

                      truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
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                      Posted: February 13, 2006, 8:19 pm - IP Logged

                      hareless

                      >you would think just the fact I can at least "predict" one number to fall everyday without a computer was pretty good....some people!

                      Exactly what do you mean by "one number?"

                      1 digit?  Or one number like 123?

                      And are you saying straight?  Or boxed?

                      Are these winning numbers posted here someplace?  Have you explained your method or is it your secret?

                        Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                        Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                        Posted: February 13, 2006, 8:28 pm - IP Logged

                        Coins, dice, roulette balls, etc..."have no memory".  Over the course of thousands of rolls of a pair of dice, 12 will have been rolled once every 36 times, 36 combinations on a pair of dice and only one way to make a 12, a 6 and a 6.

                        But in no way, shape or form does that means if you were to stand at a crap table and wait for 35 consecutive rolls without a 12 that the next roll would be a 12 (people actually do this). It might be. It might show for the next four rolls in a row. Or it may not show for another thirty five rolls, or many, many more.

                        All these tables of frequencies are based on literally millions of decisions.

                        People go brokes chasing 12's or aces' on dice tables, that's a 35:1 affair. Now think about lottery odds. 

                         If a system ever comes along that consistently beats any lottery game that game will simply not be offered any longer.

                         

                         

                         

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                          Poway CA (San Diego County)
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                          Posted: February 13, 2006, 8:31 pm - IP Logged

                          Coins, dice, roulette balls, etc..."have no memory".  Over the course of thousands of rolls of a pair of dice, 12 will have been rolled once every 36 times, 36 combinations on a pair of dice and only one way to make a 12, a 6 and a 6.

                          But in no way, shape or form does that means if you were to stand at a crap table and wait for 35 consecutive rolls without a 12 that the next roll would be a 12 (people actually do this). It might be. It might show for the next four rolls in a row. Or it may not show for another thirty five rolls, or many, many more.

                          All these tables of frequencies are based on literally millions of decisions.

                          People go brokes chasing 12's or aces' on dice tables, that's a 35:1 affair. Now think about lottery odds. 

                           If a system ever comes along that consistently beats any lottery game that game will simply not be offered any longer.

                           

                           

                           

                          I Agree!

                            LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
                            Tx
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                            Posted: February 13, 2006, 8:52 pm - IP Logged

                            But do remember that if "Random" is not "Pro-You" it is also not against you, more like neutral.

                            Stats and chances, that is all that there is to go by, I think, Unless I am wrong (?).

                            BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

                            "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

                              ayenowitall's avatar - rod serling4.jpg

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                              Posted: February 13, 2006, 9:06 pm - IP Logged

                              With respect to lottery drawings, random means (1) that every number has an equal chance of being drawn and (2) the outcome of the drawings cannot be routinely or reliably predicted. I don't believe either of those two conditions to be the case with any lottery drawing that I know of. Randomness is just as difficult to create as it is to decipher, so I don't believe that lottery drawings are truly random. Anything less than perfect randomness is not random. Consequently, I don't believe that any lottery drawings are random. That's why I continue devising ways to predict their outcomes. When I become convinced that the drawings are perfectly random, then I'll quit wasting my time trying to predict them. At that point, I'll just buy QP tickets.

                              aye'