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random means it cannot be defined

Topic closed. 27 replies. Last post 11 years ago by nonlinear.

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WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
Stone Mountain*Georgia
United States
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November 2, 2002
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Posted: February 13, 2006, 10:13 pm - IP Logged

Coins, dice, roulette balls, etc..."have no memory".  Over the course of thousands of rolls of a pair of dice, 12 will have been rolled once every 36 times, 36 combinations on a pair of dice and only one way to make a 12, a 6 and a 6.

But in no way, shape or form does that means if you were to stand at a crap table and wait for 35 consecutive rolls without a 12 that the next roll would be a 12 (people actually do this). It might be. It might show for the next four rolls in a row. Or it may not show for another thirty five rolls, or many, many more.

All these tables of frequencies are based on literally millions of decisions.

People go brokes chasing 12's or aces' on dice tables, that's a 35:1 affair. Now think about lottery odds. 

 If a system ever comes along that consistently beats any lottery game that game will simply not be offered any longer.

 

 

 

     The Casino's believe in Odds and they believe in Probability too !

                                           Ask yourself this.....

                           Why do Casino's have double-up rules?  

                        The odds never change but Probabilities do !

 I am getting tired of this same old  "Gambler Fallacy ...Fallacy misunderstanding "

  " An Event can be ...... One toss of a coin... or.....(and this is the hard part for people to understand) ...an event can be a series of events.

 

 

 

The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                              Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                              Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                       Win d    

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    Posted: February 13, 2006, 11:14 pm - IP Logged

    Despite the randomness of any given lottery draw it doesn't change the odds of an individual number's chances of coming in.

    With Keno each number in an 80/20 draw has a 4 to 1 chance of hitting, which means over the long run you'll still find that each number has hit about the right amount of times that it should have.

    It may take days or even weeks for a specific number to come in but then you'll notice it makes up for it by hitting repeatedly for a while. That makes it possible even in randomness to design somewhat effective systems that can take advantage of those hot spells.

    The problem I've run into is not developing a system that can work but that the payout is such in order to make a consistent profit it almost always requires progressive wagering. And that can get risky and cause serious losses when numbers turn suddenly cold, as they always do.

    The house knows they've got us over a barrel because of that and why they'll always come out ahead.

      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
      Zeta Reticuli Star System
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      Posted: February 14, 2006, 12:14 am - IP Logged

      Win D

       The casinos have doulbe up rules because theorhetically someone with deep enough pockets coupd beat any game. Theorhetically.  

       Starting with a $1 loss a series of losses, $1, $2, $4, $8, $16, $32, $64, $128, $256, $512, $1024, $2048, $4096, $8192 would then call for a $16,384 bet
      to show a gain of $1 if the bet wins. But after the $8192 bet the house would only allow $10,000.

      This type of system is called a Martingale and the casinos love to see people try it.  

      "Double up and catch up, no guts no glory" 

        WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
        Stone Mountain*Georgia
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        Member #828
        November 2, 2002
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        Posted: February 14, 2006, 6:58 am - IP Logged

        Win D

         The casinos have doulbe up rules because theorhetically someone with deep enough pockets coupd beat any game. Theorhetically.  

         Starting with a $1 loss a series of losses, $1, $2, $4, $8, $16, $32, $64, $128, $256, $512, $1024, $2048, $4096, $8192 would then call for a $16,384 bet
        to show a gain of $1 if the bet wins. But after the $8192 bet the house would only allow $10,000.

        This type of system is called a Martingale and the casinos love to see people try it.  

        "Double up and catch up, no guts no glory" 

        Thats right ... only it's not theoretical it's in reaction to a hard fact that's long rooted in reality.

                               Let's see how much you believe in what your saying.

                            No one has ever taken me up on my offer but here goes.

                             I'll pay you double what you pay me. Double! $$$$$$

          Anytime you find a situation in any Pick3 game where the odds are 50/50 and it has gone one way or the other for the last 10 times in a row .......call me.

          We will bet on the next draw. You will bet the trend will continue..... and I will bet that it will not.

                          If you win ...... I will pay you double your bet. Double  

              The contest will involve at least 10 such events ....or more and will be paid at the end of the contest.

            Now it's not a theory anymore....here's a chance to double your money.

                           The odds are always 50/50 .........  right?  LOL  

            Call me crazy .... The odds are half and half ... then why would I pay you double the money? Dead even odds on the contest of your choice ..... you find em' ..... you bring em' .... you set it up.... you win double money.   

         

          Here's another deal for ya. You used the example of the Box car odds of

        1 n 36 in your example. If you would like to double your money again using  Dice that would be fine. Anytime you find that 7 point has been thrown several times in a row..... say 5 or 6 times in a row call me again.  We will have another contest type event and try this out as well.

          Now..... you know the odds are in your favor for this one right? Seven can be thrown in more ways than any other dice point right? More ways than any other point.... and yet ..... and yet 

                I will pay you double money ... that the next point will not Seven.  

                      Gee..... why am I so good to you? Cause I like you... really.   Wink 

                                       

         

         

        The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                      Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                      Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                               Win d    

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          Canada
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          Posted: February 14, 2006, 10:25 am - IP Logged

          A very good book on randomness is
          RANDOMNESS by Deborah J. Bennett.
          Easy to read and plenty of real examples.
          Covers large Numbers which explains a lot about the beast.

            BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
            Dump Water Florida
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            Posted: February 15, 2006, 5:52 pm - IP Logged

            The lottery knows their game isn't random, that's why they go to all the trouble of mixing up multiple ballsets and machines, conducting test draws and removing a ballset and machine if they don't like the test draw result. 

            I think you'd find a year or more of draw history (100+) from a single machine and ballset would give you useful data to work with.  BobP


              LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
              Tx
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              Posted: February 16, 2006, 2:47 am - IP Logged

              The lottery knows their game isn't random, that's why they go to all the trouble of mixing up multiple ballsets and machines, conducting test draws and removing a ballset and machine if they don't like the test draw result. 

              I think you'd find a year or more of draw history (100+) from a single machine and ballset would give you useful data to work with.  BobP


              Yes they know and of course they don't want people to know, they want people to believe in Random and in how hopeless it is to try to predict winning numbers. That is why we have so many NEGATIVE people here at LP, doing work for the state lotteries, willing or not as it might be, it is kind of hard to tell for sure, some of them really seem to believe in all that Random trash, that goes to show us how little people really know.

              I think that I have proved more than once that Random is what you make of it and not what they say that it is. I have said it many times before there is no such thing as random, I can beat it at will, so long as I don't predict on open or public forums such as LP and more sure yet if it is only done on paper and no tickets are bought at all, many people don't believe lossing Jeff, but he is very much right, he is not making things up.

              BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

              "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

                cats135's avatar - yocco
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                Posted: February 16, 2006, 4:01 am - IP Logged

                                    I totally agree. I argue with my son about this too.

                                    I definitely see patterns that other people don't.

                Pamela aka Sweet Sade

                  truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
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                  Posted: February 16, 2006, 7:26 am - IP Logged

                  HeHe...lots of people "see things" other people don't see!

                  Wink

                    cmpmcg25's avatar - 8ball
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                    Posted: February 16, 2006, 5:48 pm - IP Logged

                    I Agree! I would like to know when do they test draw, and how long before they start the real draw for results.

                      Clairvoyance's avatar - eye storm.jpg

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                      Posted: February 16, 2006, 6:19 pm - IP Logged
                       

                      Randomness Generated by a Computer System Draw?.........I THINK NOT!

                      When is the last time your computer turned its self on with out your input? Yes Computers need to be programmed or Told what to do before they do it and that has nothing to do with randomness what so ever.

                      Traditionally, randomness takes on an operational meaning in natural science: something is apparently random if its cause cannot be determined or controlled and computerized draws are Controlled because again a computer can not do things on its own free will it must be TOLD to do an act.

                       

                       

                      Can machine ball draw be a total random act? If we know for certain that the ball and machine is fair, (no weighted die and balls all being weighted the same) then previous events have no influence over future events.

                       

                      Note that in nature, unexpected or uncertain events rarely occur with perfectly equal frequencies, so learning which events are likely to have higher probability by observing outcomes makes sense.

                      Therefore we have Systems and Therefore some of us rely on pre-sight vision (gifts) of seeing the numbers.

                       

                      Blessings
                        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                        Posted: February 16, 2006, 6:47 pm - IP Logged

                        Lotteries are not undefined events.  They have a discrete number of outcomes. A pick3 has 1000 possible outcomes, pick4 has 10,000 and etc.  Now if the number 50 came up in a 649 lottery, that would be undefined, unexpected and unacceptable because it would not be within the definition of a 649 lottery.  Lotteries appear to be random because most players only choose a few of the possible outcomes per drawings which seldom include the actual outcome, but a list of all the possible outcomes will alway have the actual outcome on it.  Lotteries are structured so it's only practical to cover a few of the possible outcomes per drawing otherwise some one would win every drawing and no one would make any money.

                         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                           
                                     Evil Looking       

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                          Posted: February 18, 2006, 8:52 pm - IP Logged
                          I tried to explain to her that once you flip a coin more than one time in a setting it is no longer random.  It no longer is 50/50.

                           

                          If you flip a coin 10 times and it's 10 tails in a row, there is still a 50/50 chance of getting tails on the 11th flip.