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Prediction Challenge

Topic closed. 18 replies. Last post 11 years ago by Thoth.

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Thoth's avatar - binary
Findlay, Ohio
United States
Member #4855
May 28, 2004
400 Posts
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Posted: March 12, 2006, 12:36 am - IP Logged

I was just sitting here thinking about randomness and how all of us here at lottery post are all looking for ways to beat the lottery.  Many of us do this by trying to guess, calculate, predict, or anticipate the next random outcome of whatever lottery game it is that we choose to play.

I was thinking, if there is any real merit to predicting lottery numbers (I like to believe that there is.....I hope that there is) then the statistical outcome of such a test as the one that I am going to illustrate below should show some real evidence.

We should ask Todd to pick a specific states Pick 3 and have him choose a  specific drawing for that state (...the date and midday or evening drawing) and then have everyone guess the position one digit for that drawing.  Everyone gets one and ONLY ONE guess.  These guesses would be kept private as to not influence anyone elses guess.

Now, if several hundred people took part in the test and an overwhelmingly biased majority of predictors chose the same digit and that digit was actually drawn, then we would have some evidence that there is truth in our methods/beliefs.  Of course this test would have to be carried out several times to gain a consistant validity.

Just a though.  It would be interesting to see the outcome.

~Probability=Odds in Motion~

    dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

    United States
    Member #2338
    September 17, 2003
    2063 Posts
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    Posted: March 12, 2006, 12:55 am - IP Logged

    The real test is when you buy tickets with a theory. It's puting your money where your mouth is. I'll give some examples.

    I cover all Megaballs and Powerballs for a white ball combination when the pot hits the cap for Powerball and over $300 million for Megamillions. I have hit 3/5 on Powerball and if you have 42 tickets it's a nice reward, otherwise I just lose and get depressed. Covering all Powerballs/Megaballs reduces the game down to a pick five game with one expensive ticket.

    For Euromillions I bet the 9 would be one of the two needed Euroballs. It wasn't and I lost. Had I been correct it would have reduced the combinations down to  16.9 million instead of 76 million.

    For the UK lottery when it hit 14mil pounds i bet that the highest number would be 29. a 6/29 game would only have 475,000 combinations and the last number is under 29 at least twice a year. I was wrong and won nothing.

    In fact most of my theories just end up losing money. As far as testing people's ability to pick right numbers there are the prediction threads in the Jackpot forum and there are predictions posted on the board all the time. No one here that I know of has hit a big multimillion pot though with any theory. 

      Thoth's avatar - binary
      Findlay, Ohio
      United States
      Member #4855
      May 28, 2004
      400 Posts
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      Posted: March 12, 2006, 1:57 am - IP Logged

      Money or no money, the test(s) would speak for itself.....and since this site is more or less about predicting the numbers (or how to), the test would be great to see.

      Heres a funny story - I have spent more than ten years analyzing and tracking lottery numbers, mostly Pick 3, and with all my knowledge, and armed with all my excel spreadsheets (many are over 100mb in size), and also all my ideas and theories, I cannot come close to accomplishing what my sister has done with blind luck as far as the mega millions is concerned! 

      Now, I dont play Mega Millions too often, but when I do you can bet that I look at my data base and analyze it in many different ways.  Sometimes I am good for two numbers, once in a while three.....but, it's funny because she has seen my spread sheets and snickers that what i am trying to accomplish is impossible - then turns around and hits 4 of 5 plus the megaball for $5,000 off a random pick.

      ~Probability=Odds in Motion~

        Thoth's avatar - binary
        Findlay, Ohio
        United States
        Member #4855
        May 28, 2004
        400 Posts
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        Posted: March 12, 2006, 2:33 am - IP Logged

        "The real test is when you buy tickets with a theory. It's puting your money where your mouth is"

        P.S.  Not trying to start a debate with you on the issue, but having a theory and buying tickets (and actually winning!) amounts to nothing more than luck unless it can be done repeatedly, consistanly, and in a frequency of more than what random chance would allow for.  I firmly believe that any true system, strategy, or other prediction method that actually works will have its foundation deeply rooted in mathematics -  and be mathematically provable at the same time.  There may be those who currently have a working system in place, but the mathematics behind thier functionality may very well elude the people who use them. 

        ~Probability=Odds in Motion~

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
          United States
          Member #9
          March 24, 2001
          19817 Posts
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          Posted: March 12, 2006, 3:26 am - IP Logged

          The trouble with running a test for a game like MegaMillions, even if you beat the odds or random expectations you would not show a profit unless you matched one of the high end prizes.  The odds of having a winning ticket is 1:39.8 and most of those tickets pay $2-$7.

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

            Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
            Chief Bottle Washer
            New Jersey
            United States
            Member #1
            May 31, 2000
            23260 Posts
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            Posted: March 12, 2006, 7:12 am - IP Logged

            The real test is when you buy tickets with a theory. It's puting your money where your mouth is. I'll give some examples.

            I cover all Megaballs and Powerballs for a white ball combination when the pot hits the cap for Powerball and over $300 million for Megamillions. I have hit 3/5 on Powerball and if you have 42 tickets it's a nice reward, otherwise I just lose and get depressed. Covering all Powerballs/Megaballs reduces the game down to a pick five game with one expensive ticket.

            For Euromillions I bet the 9 would be one of the two needed Euroballs. It wasn't and I lost. Had I been correct it would have reduced the combinations down to  16.9 million instead of 76 million.

            For the UK lottery when it hit 14mil pounds i bet that the highest number would be 29. a 6/29 game would only have 475,000 combinations and the last number is under 29 at least twice a year. I was wrong and won nothing.

            In fact most of my theories just end up losing money. As far as testing people's ability to pick right numbers there are the prediction threads in the Jackpot forum and there are predictions posted on the board all the time. No one here that I know of has hit a big multimillion pot though with any theory. 

            dvdiva,

            I think your strategies are just great, keep at it.  I think what you have described is the best way to go after a lotto jackpot.  I play using that same method for PB and MM.

             

            Check the State Lottery Report Card
            What grade did your lottery earn?

             

            Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
            Help eliminate computerized drawings!

              Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
              Chief Bottle Washer
              New Jersey
              United States
              Member #1
              May 31, 2000
              23260 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: March 12, 2006, 7:16 am - IP Logged

              I was just sitting here thinking about randomness and how all of us here at lottery post are all looking for ways to beat the lottery.  Many of us do this by trying to guess, calculate, predict, or anticipate the next random outcome of whatever lottery game it is that we choose to play.

              I was thinking, if there is any real merit to predicting lottery numbers (I like to believe that there is.....I hope that there is) then the statistical outcome of such a test as the one that I am going to illustrate below should show some real evidence.

              We should ask Todd to pick a specific states Pick 3 and have him choose a  specific drawing for that state (...the date and midday or evening drawing) and then have everyone guess the position one digit for that drawing.  Everyone gets one and ONLY ONE guess.  These guesses would be kept private as to not influence anyone elses guess.

              Now, if several hundred people took part in the test and an overwhelmingly biased majority of predictors chose the same digit and that digit was actually drawn, then we would have some evidence that there is truth in our methods/beliefs.  Of course this test would have to be carried out several times to gain a consistant validity.

              Just a though.  It would be interesting to see the outcome.

              That's an interesting idea.  We all discussed the possibility of doing some kind of monthly contest or something a while back, but it never really materialized.  It may be time to do something like that.

              It would be nice to have an on-going sort of contest, maybe every month or week.  The only problem to work out is what to offer as the prize, and how to fund the prizes.  Any ideas in that regard would be appreciated.

               

              Check the State Lottery Report Card
              What grade did your lottery earn?

               

              Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
              Help eliminate computerized drawings!

                takeitez's avatar - japheth
                Carters Lake, Ga.
                United States
                Member #5313
                June 29, 2004
                1065 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: March 12, 2006, 7:28 am - IP Logged

                Todd,

                  I would like to win a LP cap!  Lep

                ez

                          No Pity!Guitar  Drum ........ in the long run........

                  sfilippo's avatar - skull
                  Oklahoma
                  United States
                  Member #33770
                  February 24, 2006
                  3146 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: March 12, 2006, 9:09 am - IP Logged

                  I'll try for an LP coffee mug.



                  I started a contest in the Lottery Systems forum call 'Dash for Cash - System Challenge'

                  Maybe a contest like that one would be nice.

                  It's runnning starting today until Saturday and the players get $70 to start with. It's for Pick 3 and Pick 4 players.

                  I'm going to need to win it since I started it. hee hee...

                  Smiley Steve

                    anonymous77's avatar - moon
                    Seoul
                    Korea, South
                    Member #21859
                    September 16, 2005
                    346 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: March 12, 2006, 9:51 am - IP Logged

                    I am very interested in what has been discussed so far in this thread. I think that any such contest would be able to provide some more fun and lessons for LP members. I am willing to do whatever I can.

                     

                     

                      Thoth's avatar - binary
                      Findlay, Ohio
                      United States
                      Member #4855
                      May 28, 2004
                      400 Posts
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                      Posted: March 12, 2006, 4:21 pm - IP Logged

                      I agree, the coffee mug would be a fine prize! – After all, I can’t crack the lotto or really even think straight unless I've had my daily dose of coffee…usually about a whole pot lol...

                      For me, the best prize would be the data.  I titled the post “Predictors Challenge,” but I didn’t mean to imply a contest of pitting member’s predictions against one another for a prize.  That does sound fun though!  The whole idea is to see if a majority of the participants will pick the same digit and if they do, is the digit they pick actually drawn?  If the results successfully showed a bias towards a particular digit being chosen and that digit is actually drawn, the next step would be to determine the similarities in the methods that each of the winning predictors used when making their selection.  This would realistically give us something to work with and expand on.

                      Using the results in the prediction board for this test would be almost next to impossible for what I am envisioning.  There are to just too many states being guessed at and not every state gets the same amount of predictions posted for it.  Different members also only post for particular states and the amount of actual numbers give in a single prediction varies from person to person.  Needless to say, some predictions don’t specify whether the numbers are for straight or boxed play, or a combination of both.

                      All that is really needed for the experiment is a simple web page that lists the state and game to be used (pick 3 or pick 4, midday or eve, and date), as well as the position # to be guessed at.  There could be a drop down menu or radio buttons to select the digit with and then when the submit button is clicked, it will save the digit and also the predictors member name to a text/log file.  The file could later be analyzed with excel.

                      Some might suggest that trying to guess only the first digit of a P3 or P4 game is a pointless test.  I surmise that if our collective skill couldn’t accomplish such a task, then perhaps our strategies are flawed and only luck is truly responsible when our strategy produced predictions are actually correct.

                      ~Probability=Odds in Motion~

                        Avatar
                        Calgary
                        Canada
                        Member #9419
                        December 7, 2004
                        228 Posts
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                        Posted: March 13, 2006, 3:40 am - IP Logged

                        Awesome idea Thoth. Being able to predict 1 digit in position is a system in itself. I also had the idea of using several different systems and comparing them to each other, then only playing the numbers that matched from each system. Which would be similar to what you are proposing, but only 1 number in position. Big undertaking but very worthwhile.

                          Thoth's avatar - binary
                          Findlay, Ohio
                          United States
                          Member #4855
                          May 28, 2004
                          400 Posts
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                          Posted: March 13, 2006, 9:20 am - IP Logged

                          Yea, it would be interesting to see what would happen if we all concentrated on the same exact event, regardless of the unique method that each person used to arrive at their digit.  You never know, the collective intellect of the whole of lottery post crunching away at the outcome of a single chosen event could in itself prove to be a more powerful strategy than anything that is currently out there on its own.

                          ~Probability=Odds in Motion~

                            Avatar
                            Calgary
                            Canada
                            Member #9419
                            December 7, 2004
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                            Posted: March 13, 2006, 11:33 am - IP Logged

                            Agreed.  Now just to get everybody on board.  If we get the number correct just 1 of 8 times, with the odds at betslips.com at 900-1, we have essentially the winning system.  Plus anyone involved will stand to gain from this endeavor as we can all place bets online at betslips.  As a suggestion, it might make most sense to choose a state like Louisianna's pick3, since it only has one drawing per day, not two.  Making it much easier with more time for people to predict the number and to gather and total results prior to the cutoff times for betting. 


                              United States
                              Member #17555
                              June 22, 2005
                              5582 Posts
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                              Posted: March 13, 2006, 11:42 am - IP Logged

                              On the first of every month, people who want to participate will send in $5.00, to a P.O. box in N.J. close to where Todd can access it.

                              On the 28rd of the month, the contest will find the winner and Todd can mail whatever the prize amount was to the winner.

                              And for his efforts, Todd can keep a percentage, like maybe 5 percent.