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would you still play?

Topic closed. 43 replies. Last post 10 years ago by pigsNtrees.

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would you still play if here soon mega millions and powerball raised the matrix again?

yes i would still play [ 21 ]  [43.75%]
no i would not play again [ 15 ]  [31.25%]
not sure i'd have to think about it [ 12 ]  [25.00%]
Total Valid Votes [ 48 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 2 ]  
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Morrison, IL
United States
Member #4657
May 13, 2004
1884 Posts
Offline
Posted: June 19, 2006, 11:50 am - IP Logged

Those sales aren't just for Texas; they are the total for all the Mega Millions states.

    Avatar
    New Mexico
    United States
    Member #12305
    March 10, 2005
    2984 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: June 19, 2006, 1:34 pm - IP Logged

    While increasing the matrices does usually result in higher average jackpots, it also increases the threshold at which draw sales take off, as evidenced by the following blurb from The Texas Lotto Report:
    _________________
    Mega Million Sales Are Terrible!
    Here's 3 jackpot comparisons ...
    April 16, 2002 - $325M Jackpot - Draw Sales: $168,869,999
    Feb 20, 2004 - $230M Jackpot - Draw Sales: $112,392,806
    Nov 15, 2005 - $315M Jackpot - Draw Sales: $104,813,365
    _________________

    You can find that on the TLR results page. For some reason, the website's URL is censored.

    Mega Million Sales Are Terrible!
    Here's 3 jackpot comparisons ...
    April 16, 2002 - $325M Jackpot - Draw Sales: $168,869,999
    Feb 20, 2004 - $230M Jackpot - Draw Sales: $112,392,806
    Nov 15, 2005 - $315M Jackpot - Draw Sales: $104,813,365

     Here are the MM draws this year that didn't roll:

     

    6/16/2006

    27

    30

    36

    38

    45

    13

    6/2/2006

    3

    10

    18

    36

    38

    41

    16-May-06

    7

    24

    40

    48

    50

    15

    4/18/2006

    13

    14

    25

    34

    50

    6

    2/28/2006

    2

    4

    35

    36

    48

    22

    1/6/2006

    8

    11

    28

    37

    53

    12

     

    Six jackpots won.

    There have been +- 47 draws this year for MM, leaving roughly 41 draws where no jackpot was won. 

    Some of that money rolled, and a lot of it didn't.  It went over into the side where the real winners could use it.

    • April 16, 2002 - $325M Jackpot - Draw Sales: $168,869,999 in sales was chopped with the April 18 draw where some player won a jackpot advertised $253 million.  Cash value roughly $125 M.
    • $168 M in ticket sales on the 16th of April minus $125 M in actual prize payout, maximum.
    • Draws between 2/28/06 and 4/18/06, where no player won the jackpot, resulting in no payout?  12.  Twelve draws without a jackpot winner, presumably involving the money in this report squared.

    Somehow, this doesn't sound like lousy sales. 

    This sounds like a license to mint money. 

    This sounds like some rich miser crying about hard times, high costs of paying out wages and employee benefits.

    This sounds like a sliver of the big lie being served up to help the public understand why there's not more money coming in.

    This sounds roughly the way it smells.  Or maybe it's something on my boots I tracked in.

    Jack

    Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

    It's about number behavior.

    Egos don't count.

     

    Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser

     

      Avatar
      New Mexico
      United States
      Member #12305
      March 10, 2005
      2984 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: June 19, 2006, 9:04 pm - IP Logged

      There's something about those numbers above that's nagging at me.

      Every time a lottery rolls:

      1. The states get half the money from the sales in their own states.
      2. The other half, in theory, goes back into the pot in order to raise the jackpot, with some small percentage being forfeit to MM for operating expenses.

      On the April 18 jackpot win there'd been $168 M in ticket sales for the draw two days before the draw.

      That number might well have doubled during the next two days.

      Okay.  There'd been 12 rolls before April 18.  We don't know the amounts of ticket sales, but we know when the prize was awarded they'd already collected $40 M more than they actually gave away in the draw two days before the draw.

      Probably during that two days they might well have collected the entire half that was needed to go back to the states.

      So that entire draw, prize and returns stands a middling chance of standing entirely on its own hind legs, financially, without having to rely on anything out of the 12 rolls.

      So, the states got half the money from ticket sales from the 12 rolls.  The other half went.... the other half went.....the other half ...... am I missing something here?

      I know it can't possibly be true, but the only answer I can come up with is the other half went to Mega Millions.

      Hells bells.  Is it possible to buy stock in that company?

      Is it possible that, even knowing these folks are sleight of hand artists able to make money disappear faster than a cocaine addict, is it possible they are a public company listed on the NY stock exchange?

      Or is it all going into the swiss bank accounts of the top brass over there who have a monopoly on doing something they won't allow you and me to do, won't even allow the mob to do?

      Nahhh

      I must have something misfigured.

       

       

      Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

      It's about number behavior.

      Egos don't count.

       

      Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser

       

        emilyg's avatar - cat anm.gif

        United States
        Member #14
        November 9, 2001
        31346 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: June 19, 2006, 9:18 pm - IP Logged

        no - i would not play.

        love to nibble those micey feet.

         

                                     

          guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

          United States
          Member #41383
          June 16, 2006
          1969 Posts
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          Posted: June 20, 2006, 1:22 am - IP Logged

          I look at it this way:

           

          I don't play to hit the Powerball JACKPOT, I play to hit the 5 white balls, which is 200K.  I TRY to hit the red ball, I had a pretty good string going at one time, but lately I'm not counting on it, if I could, I'd wheel it.

          And I 'usually' don't play the numbers in the 50's because lately they don't hit much, and even if they do hit, it's not that often.

          (Of course, now that I say that, 3 of the 5 winning numbers will be from between 50 and 55)

          All I know is, lately, whatever I play - YOU play the other way, and you have a decent shot at winning.

          For 6/21, I am heavily weighted to numbers between 35 and 55. 

           

          As far as where the money is going, this is gambling, no different than a casino, OF COURSE there is funny business going on, when you deal with this amount of money.  Problem is, if I win 50 mill, I couldn't care less about another 5 or 10 mill, and few people would.  That's just fact.

            Avatar
            Maryland
            United States
            Member #35590
            March 20, 2006
            185 Posts
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            Posted: June 20, 2006, 9:40 am - IP Logged

            If they increase  the cost to play or they incresead the amount of balls.....I would not play anymore. These people are making money no matter what....and it seems like true capitalist greed for them to think of increasing it just because more people have been hitting it lately.

            Actually what has happened is that MM has gotten wind of the fact that more people are unto their scam of selecting the set of numbers that pay out the least. so every once in a while they throw us a bone by allowing several winners......then when all is quiet(Just like the oil companies) they go back to their same game. The odds of 1 in 175 million is totally misleading....The odds are already significantly higher since they lean towards selecting the numbers that pay out the least. So there is no need to increase the price........just get back to doing what you do best and screw us(and we allow it because we choose to play)

            If they increase the money people will spend the same amount of money but buy less tickets....so it is wash either way.....and if people feel like it is impossible to win, it will be MM loss. Like Guesser I am just focused on the $250,000.

            Here is a second senario....some of you think that I was joking a few weeks back when I said that if you consistently sqeeze a group of numbers for several drawings in a row, then it limits the options that they have to select from so that the money can keep rolling over. Because if they keep doing it, then very fishy numbers will start repeating in strange combinations(see recent Powerball numbers 10,20,22). So instead of having those fishy numbers show up like they used to do in the past, they let the system play fairly.....and that is when you see winners more often....because then the odds are truly 1 in 175 million. I say it is impossible, with so many people playing each week(many playing several combinations), that MM can each draw successfully beat the public to see $300 million plus. The only way they can beat the public that consistely in a row is if they are screwing with the numbers.

            If the numbers flow freely.....you will have many more winners.

            The last several weeks I have been sqeezing two groups of numbers and I have hit 4 out of 5 on three occasions.....on each of the occasion I hit 4 of 5....there was a jackpot winner. It forces the system to be honest or they will start looking like crooks.

            Anyway I am gonna let things roll for the next 4 weeks and see if we can't grow a big jackpot......then I will jump in and see if I can't squeeze in my favor.Big Grin

              LOTTOMIKE's avatar - cash money.jpg
              Tennessee
              United States
              Member #7853
              October 15, 2004
              11338 Posts
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              Posted: June 24, 2006, 1:50 am - IP Logged

              thanks for the feedback.i for one hope they don't raise it any more......

                BaristaExpress's avatar - BaristaExpressMX zpsfb0d8b5d.png
                Magnolia, Delaware
                United States
                Member #18795
                July 20, 2005
                789 Posts
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                Posted: June 24, 2006, 9:42 pm - IP Logged

                Now let me think about this for a second, (seconds up), Heck yes, most people would still play MM. Most here are a gambler (in some shape or form) and it wouldn't matter one way or the other what MM does to the matrix! Besides with the hopes and dreams of hitting the big one one-day is the biggest lure of all and the bragging rights of saying your system/ hard work finally paid off! The latter is most likely! And that's the truth and you all know it!Thumbs Up

                Keep dreaming the impossible dream, it just may come true! Thumbs Up

                  megamillionaire's avatar - Sphere animated_small_ neg2.gif
                  Queens, NY
                  United States
                  Member #245
                  April 15, 2002
                  451 Posts
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                  Posted: June 25, 2006, 10:00 am - IP Logged

                  If you play now, with the odds as high as they are why would you stop playing? Besides it'll give you something to really carp and cry about.

                   

                   

                   

                   

                   

                   

                   

                   

                   

                   

                   

                   

                   

                   

                   

                   

                   

                  Megamillionaire

                  Time is a wonderful teacher, but it kills all its students.

                  A man must consider what a rich realm he leaves when he becomes a conformist.

                    Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                    Zeta Reticuli Star System
                    United States
                    Member #30470
                    January 17, 2006
                    10348 Posts
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                    Posted: June 25, 2006, 2:15 pm - IP Logged

                    Those sales aren't just for Texas; they are the total for all the Mega Millions states.

                    That doesn't seem right, Mega Millions starts out at $12,000,000 and the jackpot goes up until it's hit. The increasing jackpot comes from ticket sales.
                    As in any form of gambling, the losers pay the winners.


                      LOTTOMIKE's avatar - cash money.jpg
                      Tennessee
                      United States
                      Member #7853
                      October 15, 2004
                      11338 Posts
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                      Posted: July 5, 2006, 7:37 pm - IP Logged

                      your right the losers pay the winners........

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                        United States
                        Member #33085
                        February 18, 2006
                        743 Posts
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                        Posted: July 7, 2006, 6:46 am - IP Logged

                        Yes. I would spend my usual $3.

                          LOTTOMIKE's avatar - cash money.jpg
                          Tennessee
                          United States
                          Member #7853
                          October 15, 2004
                          11338 Posts
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                          Posted: July 13, 2006, 12:36 am - IP Logged

                          your right bev.i see nothing wrong with a couple bucks.i just wouldn't spend anything more than that.

                            pigsNtrees's avatar - pigsNtrees
                            Mallorn trees of Lothlorien
                            United States
                            Member #26084
                            November 14, 2005
                            199 Posts
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                            Posted: July 20, 2006, 5:05 pm - IP Logged

                            It all depends on how much I won. Say over 20 million after all is said and done. No. Less than twenty. Yes. Either way I would still buy scratch-offs.

                            Quando Porca Volare!

                            drunk hobbit