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Odds 101

Topic closed. 55 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Coin Toss.

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Zeta Reticuli Star System
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Posted: July 7, 2006, 1:39 am - IP Logged

Green laugh 

Well, had the thread gone as planned I was going to bring up things like if the betting public educated itself,  AHEM,  games like Caribbean Stud would not exist.

The ODDS against being dealt a Royal Flush are over 652,000 to one...yet people sit down at these games, bet on a hand they can't draw to, put an additional bet up towards the kackpot, and even if they win $100,000 they're getting shorted over $400,000. But even when the one "renegade" floorperson that will tell a player that and what a sucker game it is tells this to a player they just look them right in the eye abnd say, "Oh but I love Caribbean Stud" - not realizing what they're really saying is, "Oh take my money, take it, I can't stand having it."

Gambling is gambling and odds are odds. People need to understand that whether it's a table game or sports betting or lottery not realizing and understanding what kind of odds they're up against is like trying to read without first having learned the alphabet.

 

 

 

 

 

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    Kentucky
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    Posted: July 7, 2006, 6:33 am - IP Logged

    And Floyd said:  If you buy tickets with 5000 different numbers you have a 50% chance of having a winning ticket and a 50% chance of not having a winning ticket. If you have a winning ticket then you've won, period.

    I would need $5000 to BUY 5000 different straight combinations and you're saying if one of those 5000 combinations hit and I got my 5 grand back that I won? Whoopie, how much did I WIN?

    I have a better idea; I'll go to the dog track and bet $2 to win on all 8 dogs in the race so I'll have a 100% chance of winning. And if the favorite wins and pays $4.20, I'll just ignore the fact the bet cost me $16.00 and buy a hotdog with my winnings.

    But any win is winning, period eh Floyd?

    Stack

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      Kentucky
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      Posted: July 7, 2006, 6:49 am - IP Logged

      Coin Toss:  if the betting public educated itself,  AHEM,  games like Caribbean Stud would not exist.

      If the casinos had nails protruding from the seats and electrodes randomly giving off shocks were attached to their toes, people would still play the game. Where else can you be dealt trips and get even money on your anti bet when the dealer fails to qualify? Or my personal favorite; having trips and watch the dealer turn up higher trips or a flush?

      Stack


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        Posted: July 7, 2006, 9:47 am - IP Logged

        Here's some complicated questions: What are the odds of having any number as the winning numbers of both WB and MB in CA SLP [5/47+1/27]? Texas Lotto bonus game [5/44+1/44]? Powerball [5/55+1/42] and [5/45+1/45]? Mega Millions [5/56+1/46] and [5/52+1/52]?

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          Zeta Reticuli Star System
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          Posted: July 7, 2006, 1:47 pm - IP Logged

          Stack47

          All too true about players.

          Bad beat stories, too. My point comparing Caribbean Sttud was about people chasing a Royal being dealt to them for a jackpot that pays much, much less than it should pay. I'm sure people have blown paychecks chasing lotto jackpots but I think there's more likely to be players doing that with casino games.

          just6ntlc

          I would say inter-galactic!  

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            NY
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            Posted: July 7, 2006, 1:49 pm - IP Logged

            KY Floyd

            Through this entire thread I've only been talking about the odds, which are  function of math, not finances. I'm not talking about how much you win or lose or how good a payout you get from a lottery or casino and I never have been

            Well, I started the thread, you didn't,  and it was going to lead to payoffs verses true odds, but kept getting sidetracked.  Perhaps next time you can't start your own thread.

            KY Floyd

            For flipping a coin there are two possibilities, and the probability of getting heads is 1 in 2. The odds of getting heads is 1 to 1.

            Baloney. the coin has two sides. 

            You know, I'd really love to see your concept of sports betting, laying 11 to win 10 and covering a pointspread. Want to tell us what percentage of winners you have to hit to overcome the vig?

             

             

            You've said yourself that you started this thread because of another thread in which some people were confused about odds. Maybe you didn't notice, but the odds they were confused about were  the kind governed by probability, not what the house wants to pay, and the subject was brought up in regards to  lottery games that specifically deal with simple probability. You may have intended to go elsewhere, but you started with probability and then dove in head first when you erroneoudsly said that dvdiva had gotten it wrong.

            you: Baloney. the coin has two sides

            "Baloney?" Did you see where I said that there are two possibilities when flipping a coin?  I thought it would be obvious that that's because there are two sides, but perhaps you think I meant there aren't two sides? Here's a novel idea. Instead of just saying "no, that's wrong" why don't you actually explain something for a change. If I'm wrong, educate me and all of trhe people who are counting on you.  Perhaps you could tell us about the sides of a coin and what the odds and probability are for  getting any one of those sides, since you apparently don't agree that heads is a 50/50 proposition.

            you: You know, I'd really love to see your concept of sports betting, laying 11 to win 10 and covering a pointspread.

            I couldn't care less, and like it or not, that isn't what the discussion is about.  As I said before, perhaps you could start a thread on "economics 101" or perhaps "payouts 101" if you want to discuss what the house will pay for a bet. In this thread and the one that lead you here "odds" refers to probability.

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              Posted: July 7, 2006, 1:57 pm - IP Logged

              And Floyd said:  If you buy tickets with 5000 different numbers you have a 50% chance of having a winning ticket and a 50% chance of not having a winning ticket. If you have a winning ticket then you've won, period.

              I would need $5000 to BUY 5000 different straight combinations and you're saying if one of those 5000 combinations hit and I got my 5 grand back that I won? Whoopie, how much did I WIN?

              I have a better idea; I'll go to the dog track and bet $2 to win on all 8 dogs in the race so I'll have a 100% chance of winning. And if the favorite wins and pays $4.20, I'll just ignore the fact the bet cost me $16.00 and buy a hotdog with my winnings.

              But any win is winning, period eh Floyd?

              Stack

              But any win is winning, period

              Exactly. A win is a win, and turning a profit is somehting else. You can easily see how many others here understand that by paying attention to how often somebody says something along the lines of "I bought $10 worth of Powerball tickets and I won $3." 

              This has been a discussion about probability and probability is only about the likelihood of an event occuring. In this case that event is having a winning ticket. The results of that event occurring are a completely separate issue that has no effect on the probability of the event.

              If you want to talk about how much sense it makes to place a bet we could always start a different thread, but I'll give you the simple version. Any bet you make is a bad risk because the house has the edge. How bad the risk is depends on the probability of winning, how much the house pays and how much you bet in order to win. I'll also point out that one of the problems with placing multiple bets is an increasing chance of the results being statistically normal, and it doesn't matter whether you make sht ebets all at once or over a period of time. In the case of pick 3 and pick 4 the house keeps 50% of the money, so probability says that in the long run you'll lose 50% of what you bet. If you play $1 a day on pick 3 you can expect to win once every 1000 days, but if that's what happens you're statistcally normal because you bet $1000 and lost 50% of it, just as predicted.  Even so I can guarantee that people who play pick 3 and lose every day for 3 years will come home and tell you they've won if they hit it on day 1070.

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                Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                Posted: July 7, 2006, 2:08 pm - IP Logged

                I bought $10 worth of Powerball tickets and I won $3."

                BALONEY. Betting $10 and netting $3 is a $7 loss, end of story.

                What you're saying is the same thing as people putting $1.25 in a vido poker machine, getting a pair of jacks, and habing $1.25 coming out of the machine and sitting there yeling, I won! I won!" 

                If you want to talk about how much sense it makes to place a bet we could always start a different thread.....

                Yo've already been invited to do that.  

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                  Posted: July 7, 2006, 3:29 pm - IP Logged

                  Reminds me of back in the days I did some drinking, still.  Used to stand around arguing with lamp posts and parking meters.

                  You doing some tippling, Coin Toss?

                  J

                  Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

                  It's about number behavior.

                  Egos don't count.

                   

                  Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser

                   

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                    Posted: July 7, 2006, 3:54 pm - IP Logged

                    Is this the blind leading the blind?

                     

                             Sun Smiley             

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                      Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                      Posted: July 7, 2006, 6:48 pm - IP Logged

                       I don't think so, unless you're letting yourself get convinced of things like a flip of a coin resulting in odds being 1 in 1 on heads.

                      I'd say those who truly believe that playing an additional ticket vcuts the odds in half are more likely to be accussed of the blind leading the blind (which is what triggered this thread to begin with). 

                      KY Floyd

                      Re: Your comments on winning - the betting $10 and winning $3. That's exactly how the not so honest tout services for sports betting operate - and with no payouts mentioned.

                      Reality:

                      KYF Sports Service goes 3 - 7 in NCAA football last Saturday.

                      How they'd advertsie:

                      We had three winners last Saturday in the NCAA on our 5-Star picks! Don't miss this coming week's Pick of the Week and our 10 Star-parlay! 

                      Rip Snorter

                      Naw, haven't touched the Satan Sauce in years, I'm just a bad typist and dyslexic to boot - in fact, I'm a lifetime member of NAMES- that's the branch of MENSA for the dyslexic!

                      Wink 

                       As far as I know, no one else posting in this thread did 20 years of casino work. Here's a tip Floyd, the casinos will send a private jet for someone with a bankroll and a degree in probabilities.

                      The lotteries don't have to, they just need to provide a terminal.  

                      This thread went nowhere near as intended, so with that, I will stop trying to tell a hair-raining story to a bald-heade man, and make a not to self that there are indeed a lot of graduates of MAVEN UNIVERSITY out there, good old MAVEN U. , where the motto is OPINION OVER KNOWLEDGE

                      "But we had a great time at the 1994 World Series, we had third base seats and got Chipper Jones's autograph..."

                      "Hello, there was no 1994 World series, that was the strike year."

                      "Don't you dare tell me there was no Series, we were there and had a great time."

                       

                       

                       

                       

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                        Posted: July 7, 2006, 8:00 pm - IP Logged

                        Coin Toss,

                        Its obvious true odds are meaningless when the question is "how much can I win for a buck". And you can get $5000 for your buck hitting a Pick-4 straight combination.

                        What happened in your other thread and in this one too, people were saying by playing 10 different straight combinations they now had 10 chances of winning $5000 so they were lowering the odds by a factor of 10. I guess they forgot by playing 10 more combinations, they changed the question to "how much can I win for 10 bucks".

                        We have multi-state lottery games like Powerball and Mega Millions with odds of 175 million to 1 because studies have shown more people play when the jackpots are high. I doubt that people really expect to hit the huge jackpots when they buy 10 auto picks but they can dream until the numbers are drawn. If they are buying a $10 dream, getting back $3 is a win.

                        The casinos are very aware of the fact people like the bonus options they have added them to many of their table games and created new games that include bonuses.

                        Stack

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                          Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                          Posted: July 7, 2006, 8:39 pm - IP Logged

                           Very true Stack, very true.  

                           

                            truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
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                            Posted: July 7, 2006, 10:57 pm - IP Logged

                            Coin Toss - are these the ones you referred to?

                            http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/129082

                            http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/129273

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                              Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                              Posted: July 7, 2006, 11:38 pm - IP Logged

                               That's them! 

                              Bang Head