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The 2 Low-2 Skip Strategy

Topic closed. 20 replies. Last post 10 years ago by WSN1.

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Anywhere & Everywhere
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Posted: February 12, 2007, 8:39 am - IP Logged

I executed the following test in TX mid from 1/12/06-9/1/06 (approximately 200 drws).
I was looking for when 2 Low digits hit after 2 skips. This was my results:
Hit after 2 skips=17
Hit after 3 skips=5
Hit after 4 skips=4
Hit after 5 skips=1
Hit after 6 skips=0
Hit after 6+ skips=5 (actual skips= 10, 7, 18, 7, 11)

This is 375 combinations to make 500 offline and 900 online. Can the progression king
or anyone make this strategy a profitable scenario. I proposed playing a 4 game progression
that starts after 2 draws out, then if it does not hit, start the progression over at the beginning
til it hit, although in this scenario, a couple times you would have to start and reset progression
before getting the hit a couple more times.

Im not sure what this proposal would look like in a wagering table, which would be interesting to see,
however, I think it is still profitable. It provides more opportunities, approximately 30%, and is less than the online and offline payout. I also think this can be done with several other series combinations.

This is also more opportunities with less numbers to play than in the 50/50 setups where you play 500#s, waiting for several skips, which to me you have about same among of chance of hitting in next draw propotionally, just a reduce amount of opportunities.

Maybe, someone can add more clarity to these results.

    cps10's avatar - Lottery-004.jpg
    The Carolinas - Charlotte
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    Posted: February 12, 2007, 3:02 pm - IP Logged

    WSN1

    I will draw up offline and online progressions for this and see what we can generate.

    cps

    The North Carolina Education Lottery - so much a joke that here are their mascots:

    Stooges

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      Posted: February 12, 2007, 3:05 pm - IP Logged

      This is a 4-game online progression:

       

       

      Draw#sBet/UnitUnitsBetIf LossIf Win
      1375$375.00 1$375.00 ($375.00)$525.00
      2375$375.00 1$375.00 ($750.00)$150.00
      3375$375.00 2$750.00 ($1,500.00)$300.00
      4375$375.00 3$1,125.00 ($2,625.00)$75.00

      The North Carolina Education Lottery - so much a joke that here are their mascots:

      Stooges

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        Posted: February 12, 2007, 3:09 pm - IP Logged

        Under this scenario, you would be looking at a result of the following:

         

        17 x $525 profit = $8,925

        5 x $150 profit = $750

        4 x $300 profit = $1,200

        1 x $75 profit = $75

        Total profits = $10,950

        5 losses @ $2,625 = $13,125

        Total loss = ($2,175)

         

        I would probably concentrate on hitting after 2 draws and then abandoning it until there is a hit. Meaning, that after the second skip, playing it and if it hits, great, you are up $525. If it loses, wait for it to win, then wait another turn of 2 skips before playing again. That's just my thought on it.

        The North Carolina Education Lottery - so much a joke that here are their mascots:

        Stooges

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          Posted: February 12, 2007, 3:10 pm - IP Logged
          Draw#sBet/UnitUnitsBetIf LossIf Win
          1375$375.00 1$375.00 ($375.00)$125.00
          2375$375.00 4$1,500.00 ($1,875.00)$125.00
          3375$375.00 16$6,000.00 ($7,875.00)$125.00
          4375$375.00 64$24,000.00 ($31,875.00)$125.00

           

          This is the offline version. Obviously, you have to be much more careful. I would almost suggest a boxed approach for something like this with such volatility. At least you can sustain a much higher drought of skips.

          The North Carolina Education Lottery - so much a joke that here are their mascots:

          Stooges

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            Posted: February 12, 2007, 3:14 pm - IP Logged

            Even boxed online could cause some complications without the right "rules" for the system:

             

             

            DrawSGL #sBet/UnitUnitsSGL BetDBL #sBet/UnitUnitsDBL BetIf LossSGL WinDBL Win
            150$50.00 1$50.00 25$25.00 1$25.00 ($76.00)$74.00 $224.00
            250$50.00 2$100.00 25$25.00 1$25.00 ($201.00)$99.00 $99.00
            350$50.00 3$150.00 25$25.00 2$50.00 ($401.00)$49.00 $199.00
            450$50.00 5$250.00 25$25.00 3$75.00 ($726.00)$24.00 $174.00
            550$50.00 9$450.00 25$25.00 5$125.00 ($1,301.00)$49.00 $199.00
            650$50.00 16$800.00 25$25.00 8$200.00 ($2,301.00)$99.00 $99.00

            The North Carolina Education Lottery - so much a joke that here are their mascots:

            Stooges

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              Posted: February 12, 2007, 3:16 pm - IP Logged

              And offline:

               

              DrawSGL #sBet/UnitUnitsSGL BetDBL #sBet/UnitUnitsDBL BetIf LossSGL WinDBL Win
              150$50.00 1$50.00 25$25.00 1$25.00 ($76.00)$4.00 $84.00
              250$50.00 6$300.00 25$25.00 3$75.00 ($451.00)$29.00 $29.00
              350$50.00 26$1,300.00 25$25.00 13$325.00 ($2,076.00)$4.00 $4.00
              450$50.00 120$6,000.00 25$25.00 60$1,500.00 ($9,576.00)$24.00 $24.00
              550$50.00 548$27,400.00 25$25.00 274$6,850.00 ($43,826.00)$14.00 $14.00

              The North Carolina Education Lottery - so much a joke that here are their mascots:

              Stooges

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                Posted: February 12, 2007, 3:18 pm - IP Logged

                From what I can see, you have a 50/50 shot at getting it right right away - as in the first draw. So, that is actually a pretty decent shot. So, even if you lose the first time, the next time the scenario comes up, you are likely to win the next time, so you could apply the progression that way if you choose. If you go 4 straight 2-skip periods with losses, then that could be a problem. And it would wipe you out.

                Any thoughts?

                The North Carolina Education Lottery - so much a joke that here are their mascots:

                Stooges

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                  Anywhere & Everywhere
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                  Posted: February 12, 2007, 4:54 pm - IP Logged

                  Under this scenario, you would be looking at a result of the following:

                   

                  17 x $525 profit = $8,925

                  5 x $150 profit = $750

                  4 x $300 profit = $1,200

                  1 x $75 profit = $75

                  Total profits = $10,950

                  5 losses @ $2,625 = $13,125

                  Total loss = ($2,175)

                   

                  I would probably concentrate on hitting after 2 draws and then abandoning it until there is a hit. Meaning, that after the second skip, playing it and if it hits, great, you are up $525. If it loses, wait for it to win, then wait another turn of 2 skips before playing again. That's just my thought on it.

                  Ouch!, I like the suggestion. I gonna record those results and post and we can look at it. I also, like the boxed approach better. Here are the boxed #s (50): 015, 016, 017, 018, 019, 025, 026, 027, 028, 029, 035, 036, 037, 038, 039, 045, 046, 047, 048, 049, 125, 126, 127, 128, 129, 135, 136, 137, 138, 139, 145, 146, 147, 148, 149, 235, 236, 237, 238, 239, 245, 246, 247, 248, 249, 345, 346, 347, 348, 349

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                    Anywhere & Everywhere
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                    Posted: February 12, 2007, 5:19 pm - IP Logged

                    OKay CPS10, here is the hit/skip order over the 200 draw history. What does this look like with progression. Im using your suggested idea of just waiting til the 2 skips occurs, and play only the next draw, then back until then next setup where the filter hits and follows with 2 skips:

                    h x h x h x h h h h x x x x h x h h h h x x h h x x x x h h x =

                    31 plays and 16 hits, about par for the course. 2x the longest skip was 4. I think this much more manageable on and offline, playing straight and boxed. Although, if you dont have a well supported bank for the straights. then boxed is the best alternative. What do you think? how does this updated scenario, look with the various progressions (on/offline-st/bx)?

                    Im wondering however over a longer history say 1000 draws what would be the longest skip....hmmmm. Although, for 200 draws to only have the longest skip to be 4 @ 2x, that's very promising.

                    dK

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                      Posted: February 12, 2007, 10:17 pm - IP Logged

                      Let's test a state all the way through...do it straight one time and boxed one time. Would you exclude the doubles? I don't think I would do that.

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                        Posted: February 13, 2007, 3:00 am - IP Logged

                        Let's test a state all the way through...do it straight one time and boxed one time. Would you exclude the doubles? I don't think I would do that.

                        Okay, I went through the last 99 skips with the 50# boxed strategy, However,  Im thinking it may be best every draw with progressive wagering boxed.. Because it's average skip is 2 draws and the max skip is 12

                        What do you think? What would this look like?

                         

                         

                        SerieTimesCur. skipAv. skipMath Av skipMax skip
                        Bx. Mostly Low Singles120622.113.3312

                         

                         

                        Last 99 skips

                         

                         

                        020660110101333111110413110221126142120217112211002002124206201314404033022011441171102261412431010515
                          cps10's avatar - Lottery-004.jpg
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                          Posted: February 13, 2007, 10:16 am - IP Logged

                          The 10-12 skips could really do you in. Even the 6s are very expensive. We need to figure out a better strategy. The mathematical skip rate is 3.33, so it might be best to wait until something like this is 6 draws out and then hammer it. That leaves with just 6 draws to the max skip, which isn't all that bad, especially with a box situation.

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                          Stooges

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                            Posted: February 13, 2007, 2:14 pm - IP Logged

                            The 10-12 skips could really do you in. Even the 6s are very expensive. We need to figure out a better strategy. The mathematical skip rate is 3.33, so it might be best to wait until something like this is 6 draws out and then hammer it. That leaves with just 6 draws to the max skip, which isn't all that bad, especially with a box situation.

                            Keith, very interesting assessment. However, before we venture there, I looked at the complete history of TX midday and TX evening, see below:

                            In the midday 84 out of 100 skips are between 0 and 4

                            In the evening 89 out of 100 skips are between 0 and 4

                            Why dont we play the 0 (repeat skip) up to a 4 step progression or maybe even a 6 step progression, then end or reset the progression once. No, probably just end the progression and take the lost for the longer skips.

                            Or as another option. let's see what your suggestion would look like with a 6 skip wait/6step progression:

                            TX Midday

                            6skips w/6step progression = 13 of 99 opportunites = 12 wins, 1 loss record 

                            TX Evening

                            6skips w/6step progression = 9 of 99 opportunites = 9 wins, 0 loss record

                            Detailed Analysis Records Below 

                            TX Midday     
                            Serie                    Times    Cur. skip  Av. skip  Math Av skip  Max skip
                            Bx. Mostly Low Singles 415          3        2.33         3.33          18
                            Last 99 skips     
                              3  1  0  2  2  0  0  11  2  1  1  2  11  7  5  2  0  2  18 
                            0  2  12  0  2  2  0  2  6  2  0  1  3  0  1  0  0  1  0  3  0 
                            10  4  2  0  0  2  1  2  4  0  2  3  2  4  0  9  3  1  0  3  0 
                            7  0  10  0  0  2  1  3  1  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0 
                            5  0  8  11  1  0  9  0  1  3  0  1  3  0  3  1  0     

                            0s=38 1s=16 2s=17 3s=10 4s=3 
                            84 out 99   = 84% and more opportunities, higher with a 6 step here (3 more hits)
                            6skips w/6step progression = 13 of 99 opportunites = 12 wins, 1 loss record

                             TX Evening    
                            Serie                    Times Cur. skip  Av. skip  Math Av skip  Max skip
                            Bx. Mostly Low Singles 1206      2        2.11        3.33          12
                            Last 99 skips     
                            0  2  0  6  6  0  1  10  1  0  1  3  3  3  1  1  1  1  1  0  4 
                            1  3  1  1  0  2  2  1  1  2  6  1  4  2  1  2  0  2  1  7  1 
                            1  2  2  1  1  0  0  2  0  0  2  1  2  4  2  0  6  2  0  1  3 
                            1  4  4  0  4  0  3  3  0  2  2  0  1  1  4  4  1  1  7  1  1 
                            0  2  2  6  1  4  12  4  3  1  0  1  0  5  1  5     

                            0s=20 1s=33 2s=18 3s=8 4s=10
                            89 out of 99 skips   = 89% and more opportunities, higher with a 6 step here (7 more hits)

                            6skips w/6step progression = 9 of 99 opportunites = 9 wins, 0 loss record

                            I know I know, Im a Libra I tend to look at both ends of the spectrum. lol

                            So what are your thoughts, do you think both options for this strategy are viable. Anymore, tweeking needed. If not, can you put the progression models together so we can see what the bottomline really looks like? 

                            dK

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                              Posted: February 13, 2007, 2:43 pm - IP Logged

                              Keith, very interesting assessment. However, before we venture there, I looked at the complete history of TX midday and TX evening, see below:

                              In the midday 84 out of 100 skips are between 0 and 4

                              In the evening 89 out of 100 skips are between 0 and 4

                              Why dont we play the 0 (repeat skip) up to a 4 step progression or maybe even a 6 step progression, then end or reset the progression once. No, probably just end the progression and take the lost for the longer skips.

                              Or as another option. let's see what your suggestion would look like with a 6 skip wait/6step progression:

                              TX Midday

                              6skips w/6step progression = 13 of 99 opportunites = 12 wins, 1 loss record 

                              TX Evening

                              6skips w/6step progression = 9 of 99 opportunites = 9 wins, 0 loss record

                              Detailed Analysis Records Below 

                              TX Midday     
                              Serie                    Times    Cur. skip  Av. skip  Math Av skip  Max skip
                              Bx. Mostly Low Singles 415          3        2.33         3.33          18
                              Last 99 skips     
                                3  1  0  2  2  0  0  11  2  1  1  2  11  7  5  2  0  2  18 
                              0  2  12  0  2  2  0  2  6  2  0  1  3  0  1  0  0  1  0  3  0 
                              10  4  2  0  0  2  1  2  4  0  2  3  2  4  0  9  3  1  0  3  0 
                              7  0  10  0  0  2  1  3  1  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0 
                              5  0  8  11  1  0  9  0  1  3  0  1  3  0  3  1  0     

                              0s=38 1s=16 2s=17 3s=10 4s=3 
                              84 out 99   = 84% and more opportunities, higher with a 6 step here (3 more hits)
                              6skips w/6step progression = 13 of 99 opportunites = 12 wins, 1 loss record

                               TX Evening    
                              Serie                    Times Cur. skip  Av. skip  Math Av skip  Max skip
                              Bx. Mostly Low Singles 1206      2        2.11        3.33          12
                              Last 99 skips     
                              0  2  0  6  6  0  1  10  1  0  1  3  3  3  1  1  1  1  1  0  4 
                              1  3  1  1  0  2  2  1  1  2  6  1  4  2  1  2  0  2  1  7  1 
                              1  2  2  1  1  0  0  2  0  0  2  1  2  4  2  0  6  2  0  1  3 
                              1  4  4  0  4  0  3  3  0  2  2  0  1  1  4  4  1  1  7  1  1 
                              0  2  2  6  1  4  12  4  3  1  0  1  0  5  1  5     

                              0s=20 1s=33 2s=18 3s=8 4s=10
                              89 out of 99 skips   = 89% and more opportunities, higher with a 6 step here (7 more hits)

                              6skips w/6step progression = 9 of 99 opportunites = 9 wins, 0 loss record

                              I know I know, Im a Libra I tend to look at both ends of the spectrum. lol

                              So what are your thoughts, do you think both options for this strategy are viable. Anymore, tweeking needed. If not, can you put the progression models together so we can see what the bottomline really looks like? 

                              dK

                              dK

                              I like how you are approaching this...both options sound very viable. I will take a look at all of this as soon as I have some time. Very busy at work today...and well, my Tar Heels are on the tube tonight, so I may not get much done tonight either. But I will look at this a little closer and then analyze my state to see where we can go with this.

                              The North Carolina Education Lottery - so much a joke that here are their mascots:

                              Stooges