Thanks for the follow-up!
Keith, using your progression chart & procedures all the way through for the
0 skip and the 6 skip after a 4 step, we lose big time and both at about the same amount of lose.
In order for the method to have a change using the progression, you must follow
the progression til the strategy hits, otherwise, if you stop on a progression loss
you will have a significant negative to erase to get back to the black, because
a 4 step progression loss is $725 fixed but a average win is $90.50, with a $1 bet. see below:
Progression Average Win for a Single & Double with the strategy
Note: Singles will typically hit 3 to 1 over a double,
therefore we can make the following assumptions with your progression chart:
Step 1 = Single=75x3 & Double=225x1=112.50 avg
Step 2 = Single=100x3 & Double=100x1=100.00 avg
Step 3 = Single=50x3 & Double=200x1=87.50 avg
Step 4 = Single=25x3 & Double=175x1=62.50 avg
Step 5 = same as Step 3
Step 6 = same as Step 2
Overall avg for ea of 4 step = 90.50
Overall avg for ea of 6 step = 91.66
So a Win =$90.50 avg. and a Loss=$725fixed
With these assumptions using your progression chart, let's take another look
at the TX Midday results:
TX Midday
Serie Times Cur. skip Av. skip Math Av skip Max skip
Bx. Mostly Low Singles 415 3 2.33 3.33 18
Last 99 skips
3 1 0 2 2 0 0 11 2 1 1 2 11 7 5 2 0 2 18
0 2 12 0 2 2 0 2 6 2 0 1 3 0 1 0 0 1 0 3 0
10 4 2 0 0 2 1 2 4 0 2 3 2 4 0 9 3 1 0 3 0
7 0 10 0 0 2 1 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
5 0 8 11 1 0 9 0 1 3 0 1 3 0 3 1 0
1st suggestion (4steps after 6skips or skip 5), we would start playing when the skip is 5 and stop at skip 8 in each case,
Therefore, in the above history we will have 6 wins and 9 losses
or 6x90.50 minus 9x725 = 543 - 6525 = (5,982)
3 1 0 2 2 0 0 11 2 1 1 2 11 7 5 2 0 2 18
0 2 12 0 2 2 0 2 6 2 0 1 3 0 1 0 0 1 0 3 0
10 4 2 0 0 2 1 2 4 0 2 3 2 4 0 9 3 1 0 3 0
7 0 10 0 0 2 1 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
5 0 8 11 1 0 9 0 1 3 0 1 3 0 3 1 0
2nd suggestion (4steps after win or skip 0), we would start playing when the skip is 0 and stop at skip 3 in each case,
Therefore, in the above history we will have 81 wins and 18 losses
or 81x90.50 minus 18x725 = 7290 - 13050 = (5,760)
3 1 0 2 2 0 0 11 2 1 1 2 11 7 5 2 0 2 18
0 2 12 0 2 2 0 2 6 2 0 1 3 0 1 0 0 1 0 3 0
10 4 2 0 0 2 1 2 4 0 2 3 2 4 0 9 3 1 0 3 0
7 0 10 0 0 2 1 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
5 0 8 11 1 0 9 0 1 3 0 1 3 0 3 1 0
To make either scenario, profitable as stated previously, we would have to follow through each progression,
til it hit, then in that case the 4step after 6skips is the best scenario, however that becomes extremely
expensive and unrealistic even though you get a profit. Under the current conditions, it would not be nearly
as expensive but over the history of this game we would have about a $6,000 loss.
I hope this analysis makes sense. If I have misunderstood something or done something incorrectly with my evaluation,
please correct me. Otherwise, what can we do to salvage this method realistically.
This looks very disappointing and skeptical for other 50/50 scenarios, if there is an extended skip cycle.
I guess the only way to do it, check the max skip, set your bankroll to handle the longest skip, which in
this case is 18skips, start play at skip 5 or 6 and at .25 per bet or whatever, and play progressively through, til each hit. If you agree with my final assessment, then what would we have to spend at .25 online after 18 skips to get that max out hit? That's a progression 12 steps..
dK