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degree of certanty

Topic closed. 21 replies. Last post 10 years ago by KY Floyd.

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Belleville , Illinois
United States
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Posted: March 19, 2007, 5:35 am - IP Logged

Any one familair with the DC chart in Ion Saliu Mdiedit-we

for the pick 3 , I would like the same type of chart that will cover the 710 boxed numbers for the pick4

 

I have a number that has not hit boxed in 6833 days and I think it is in the same as 6904 range as the pick at 99.9 percent for the pick 3

 

Bigjer 

    Thoth's avatar - binary
    Findlay, Ohio
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    Posted: March 22, 2007, 12:08 am - IP Logged

    I just made you one for Pick 3 and 4.

    The number of games are rounded to the closest whole number.  Ive used his formula and a similar one extensively.  One thing I've noticed is that when any probability gets to its 99.99% mark, it hits extremely soon...relatively speaking of course.  A probability getting to its 99.999% mark is extreeeeemely rare!

    ~Probability=Odds in Motion~

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      Belleville , Illinois
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      Posted: March 22, 2007, 6:21 am - IP Logged

      Hi Thoth

       

        Thank you very much this will help me in my training of some quick pick players who think every thing is just luck

       

      BigJer

        Thoth's avatar - binary
        Findlay, Ohio
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        Posted: March 22, 2007, 12:17 pm - IP Logged

        Your welcome Bigjer.

        For anyone who doesnt know what the Degree of certainty is, heres how the charts are used:

        The bet type is listed on the right most column, the odds of any number being drawn, that fit that bet type, are listed to the right in the next column.  All the percentages are listed next.  Below the percentages are the amount of games required to attain each percent.

        Say you want to win the Pick 3 straight and your favorite number is 468.  How long must you play your number in order to win?  Well, according to the chart, if you play your number for 693 games, you will have a 50% chance of winning.  Now, it could be that first game, the last game, or any game anywhere in between.  You dont really know which particular game will pull your winner, but the fact is, is that 693 games gives you a 50% chance of success. 

        If you want a 90% chance of winning on it, then you can plan on playing it for 2301 consecutive games.

        These percentages are also the number of games required to see that percentage of all the combinations drawn.  For example, there are 1,000 pick 3 drawings.  If you look at the last 693 games in your state, there should only be about 500 different numbers there.  500 is 50% of the 1,000 combination matrix.

        The 99.9% mark for Pick 3 is 6,904 games.  If you have ever taken a look at the history of any states pick 3 (6000+ games), then you know that there is usually one or two numbers that have either never hit or havent hit for 6000 to 8000 games.  These numbers are supposed to be there!  The 99.9% mark is 6904 games.  So what is 99.9% of 1,000 (the total Pick 3 matrix)? The answer is 999, which is why you usually see 1 or 2 numbers out past 6904.

        The boxed numbers work the same way.  In Pick 3, a 6-way boxed number (no-match, singles, etc.), has a 50% chance of being drawn within about 115 games.  If you look at the the last 115 games in your state, there should be close to 60 different no-match boxed numbers.

        By the way, I just noticed my Pick 3 chart has an error.  The "odds" column should read, from top to bottom, 1000, 333, then 167....not 1000, 167, 333.

        ~Probability=Odds in Motion~

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          Belleville , Illinois
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          Posted: March 25, 2007, 6:22 am - IP Logged

          Hello again Thoth

            I am wondering if you are going all the way to a DC chart of sums of Pick 4 matrix.

          BigJer
           

            Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
            Wisconsin
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            Posted: March 25, 2007, 11:04 am - IP Logged

            Thoth, that's a great chart. Although I didn't start the thread, I just want to thank you for it.

            ============

            How can you tell if a politician is lying?

            Answer: His lips are moving.

              Thoth's avatar - binary
              Findlay, Ohio
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              Posted: March 27, 2007, 3:03 am - IP Logged

              Hello again Thoth

                I am wondering if you are going all the way to a DC chart of sums of Pick 4 matrix.

              BigJer
               

              Sure is.  You can "DC" any event as long as you know its true probability.  I dont have time to do the chart tonight though.  I'll try to get to it in a few days.

              ~Probability=Odds in Motion~

                Thoth's avatar - binary
                Findlay, Ohio
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                Posted: March 27, 2007, 3:04 am - IP Logged

                Thoth, that's a great chart. Although I didn't start the thread, I just want to thank you for it.

                Thanks Badger

                ~Probability=Odds in Motion~

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                  Belleville , Illinois
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                  Posted: March 27, 2007, 6:25 am - IP Logged

                  thanks Thoth

                    I have been keeping pencil and paper checrts of how old the sums of all 36 sums and do not have but three months data , and would like to be able to forcast how often they should hit .

                    I just recently started playing pick 4 after not playing it for many years .

                  I thinks the average of the double's should be about 23 as there are 42 percent hits of doubles in pick 4 ,  llet me know if this is close to being correct.

                   

                  T hanks in advance

                  BigJer 

                    Thoth's avatar - binary
                    Findlay, Ohio
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                    Posted: March 31, 2007, 10:53 am - IP Logged

                    Heres the Pick 4 Sums DC chart:

                     

                     

                    ~Probability=Odds in Motion~

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                      Belleville , Illinois
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                      Posted: April 1, 2007, 6:11 am - IP Logged

                      Thanks Thoth

                        That had to be a lot of work, and I greatly appreciate it

                       

                      Bigjer 

                        johnph77's avatar - avatar
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                        Posted: April 1, 2007, 2:22 pm - IP Logged

                        Thoth -

                        An absolutely awesome set of charts. Well done!

                        gl

                        j

                        Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there..... 

                        Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

                         =^.^=

                          Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
                          FEMA Region V Camp #21
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                          Posted: April 1, 2007, 2:38 pm - IP Logged

                          Thoth -

                          An absolutely awesome set of charts. Well done!

                          gl

                          j

                          I Agree!

                          Thanks, Thoth. 

                          Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


                            Thoth's avatar - binary
                            Findlay, Ohio
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                            Posted: April 2, 2007, 11:36 pm - IP Logged

                            Thanks guys, I appreciate that.  It actually doesnt take too long with excel.

                            ~Probability=Odds in Motion~

                              eddessaknight's avatar - nw paladin.jpg
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                              Posted: April 3, 2007, 4:30 am - IP Logged

                              Thoth, Rick, John, et al-

                               

                              Hey Rick et al,

                              POINT OF CERTAINTY & SAFETY-

                              There was this old timer punter who took a liking to me some blue moons back and said he would reveal his short hand but physics based 'Point of Certainty'. Well btiefly, the old fella says take the real odds and multiply by 9 and if the expected happening hadn't occured yet then bet the farm. Ole' Nick says he did well with keno games in Las Vegas. Take your fav number  (odds 4-1)  hasn't hit say in last  35/36 X then start wagering long green; Nick claims outcome never went past 38 plays (barring malfunction or bias machine). He might have grown much older awaiting these 'Point of Certainty' to occur but he swears he hit BIG $$$ at a casino.

                              I bought him another drink.... Cheers

                              The safest place in a casino, in case of a terroist attack, is the keno parlor becuase nothing ever hits there! I just couldn't resist.

                              Well what do you thinK?

                               

                              Good Night,

                              eddessaknight Smile