Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 9, 2016, 12:40 am
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

degree of certanty

Topic closed. 21 replies. Last post 10 years ago by KY Floyd.

Page 2 of 2
52
PrintE-mailLink
Thoth's avatar - binary
Findlay, Ohio
United States
Member #4855
May 28, 2004
400 Posts
Offline
Posted: April 4, 2007, 1:51 am - IP Logged

Thoth, Rick, John, et al-

 

Hey Rick et al,

POINT OF CERTAINTY & SAFETY-

There was this old timer punter who took a liking to me some blue moons back and said he would reveal his short hand but physics based 'Point of Certainty'. Well btiefly, the old fella says take the real odds and multiply by 9 and if the expected happening hadn't occured yet then bet the farm. Ole' Nick says he did well with keno games in Las Vegas. Take your fav number  (odds 4-1)  hasn't hit say in last  35/36 X then start wagering long green; Nick claims outcome never went past 38 plays (barring malfunction or bias machine). He might have grown much older awaiting these 'Point of Certainty' to occur but he swears he hit BIG $$$ at a casino.

I bought him another drink.... Cheers

The safest place in a casino, in case of a terroist attack, is the keno parlor becuase nothing ever hits there! I just couldn't resist.

Well what do you thinK?

 

Good Night,

eddessaknight Smile

"That Point of Certainty" (odds times 9) usually puts you into the DC = 99.99%.  It does seem true most of the time.  Perhaps it would be better to call it "a point of forthcoming certainty"...that would be the entire range of odds times 9 to 12.

But with even 50/50 chances, this can be into up into the low 20's (anomalous as it is) even though 12 to 14 is the normal max.

Here's one that screws it all up:  Anything that has a 10% chance has a 99.9999999999999% chance of occurring within 327 games.  Imagine how many nines would get added to that percentage if you played the same 10% chance for 1,000 consecutive games.  If you play 100 Pick 3 straights, the chance is essentially 10% (100÷1000).  Now, if you play that group of 100 straight for 1,000 games, you would think that you would be guaranteed to win, right?  LOL...Now take a look at the last 1,000 Pick 3 draws in any state.  There should be about 368 straight that were not drawn.  Imagine how many groups of 100 straight you could pick from that 368 that never hit.  LOL tons of 'em!  But that's probably quite small compared to all the possible 100 number groups that could be pulled from all 1,000.  Nonetheless, a group of 386 (36.8%) still makes it 1000 games without a hit, time and time again.   

~Probability=Odds in Motion~

    eddessaknight's avatar - nw paladin.jpg
    LAS VEGAS
    United States
    Member #47729
    November 22, 2006
    4503 Posts
    Online
    Posted: April 4, 2007, 5:51 pm - IP Logged

    "That Point of Certainty" (odds times 9) usually puts you into the DC = 99.99%.  It does seem true most of the time." ~Thoth

    And isn't that why it's called gambling ? Wink

    I suppose if a player were to hit within these 99.99% perematers, wins should outweigh loses.

    Many thanks Thoth for the time and effort for the listed table contribution and your relevant reply to my Point of Certainty story and inquiry.

     

    Regards,

    eddessaknight Smile

      Thoth's avatar - binary
      Findlay, Ohio
      United States
      Member #4855
      May 28, 2004
      400 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: April 6, 2007, 1:42 am - IP Logged

      ..and heres the Pick 3 Sums DC Chart:

      ~Probability=Odds in Motion~

        Avatar
        Belleville , Illinois
        United States
        Member #1850
        July 15, 2003
        70 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: April 6, 2007, 6:14 am - IP Logged

        Thanks Thoth

         

        I was thinking about asking you for the sums on the pick 3 matrix, and was thinking that I did not want to imposse on you so soon after the great job you did on the pick 4 chart. Any one who is not seeing these charts are missing out on some wonderful stuff.

         

        THANKS AGAIN

        BigJer 

          CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
          ORLANDO, FLORIDA
          United States
          Member #4924
          June 3, 2004
          5903 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: April 6, 2007, 7:09 am - IP Logged

          Thanks Thoth

           

          I was thinking about asking you for the sums on the pick 3 matrix, and was thinking that I did not want to imposse on you so soon after the great job you did on the pick 4 chart. Any one who is not seeing these charts are missing out on some wonderful stuff.

           

          THANKS AGAIN

          BigJer 

          I agree, Thoth has always posted very good info!!  Thank you very much.

            eddessaknight's avatar - nw paladin.jpg
            LAS VEGAS
            United States
            Member #47729
            November 22, 2006
            4503 Posts
            Online
            Posted: April 18, 2007, 4:26 pm - IP Logged

            "The Uncertainty principle states that you can never really understand the true nature of an event, because the very act of studying the event can change the outcome."

            ~Werner Heisenberg, famous for the Uncertainty principle in Quantum Mechanics.

            What do you think?
            eddessaknight Wink
              Avatar
              NY
              United States
              Member #23835
              October 16, 2005
              3474 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: April 19, 2007, 1:33 am - IP Logged

              I think that in drawing numbered balls from a mixing machine we don't need to be concerned with the effects of quantum mechanics on our observations or the results. 686 is  686 no matter what flavor a particular quark might be.