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What if you found out that NO ILOGICAL system works

Topic closed. 44 replies. Last post 9 years ago by KY Floyd.

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LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
Tx
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Posted: August 18, 2007, 3:10 pm - IP Logged

I hope that Win D does not get upset about this tread or post! 

I am kind of back, I am too addicted to posting to not post sometimes.

You might say that there is nothing logical about random, so,  How can there be logical prediction systems?

The problem is that you think that there is random, after all there is the word and has a definition:

Let us take a look at some definitions:

 

  • lacking any definite plan or order or purpose; governed by or depending on chance; "a random choice"; "bombs fell at random"; "random movements"
  • taken haphazardly; "a random choice"
  • It says "Governed by chance" And What is chance? It is not anything either same as random.
  • Nothing is governed by "Chance, but by "Natural" universal laws, Physical-Chemical laws.
  • Or as they say "For every action there is a reaction", it does not go like: For every chance  there is a reaction, chance does not cause a reaction, an action is produced by a previous action, not by something called "Chance".
  • Nothing can scape physical-chemical universal laws, everything and anything most follow them, no matter what they might tell you, but random and chance are not universal laws.
  • --------------------------Next:
  • In ordinary language, the word random is used to express apparent lack of purpose or cause. This suggests that no matter what the cause of something, its nature is not only unknown but the consequences of its operation are also unknown.
  • That next definition appears to be just a little more In-Tune with reality.
  • In ordinary language, the word random is used to express apparent lack of purpose or cause. This suggests that no matter what the cause of something, its nature is not only unknown but the consequences of its operation are also unknown.
  • That is more like it:
  • There is a cuse or causes, but they are unknown.
  • There appears to be a lack of purpose, but only appears to be, there is no lack, the purpose is just unknown to us.
  • The nature and the purpose are not Random, they are just unknown to us.
  • -----------------------------------------
  • So if thru study the unknown becomes a little less unknown are more known then there can be somewhat logical and ilogical prediction lottery techniques.
  • ----------
  • Due to the many "Unknown" and changing actions that cause reactions or a reaction, the flow of actions (Reactions) appear to be random.

There-fore that wouild make "Static" prediction methods useless for the most part or a great deal of the time.

Even Unknown (What appears to be Chaos)  has sort of "Common Sense" "Rules".

They can be called "Statistical" rules. 

----------

For example take a pick 3 game and its 3 positions: 

123

Common sense statistic would tell us that on any one digit position the same digit number can't keep on showing up on straight sequence draw after draw after draw and so on "Amen" forever.

While it is not impossible for such to happen, it is "Practicaly" impossible for it to happen.

As you can see I can't spell the words right.

So if that is true then what happened to the unpredictability of so called made up "Random"

It appears as if it is not as unpredictable after all.


Statistics and common sense tell us that there are  what I would call "Degrees of predictability"

More or less sort of flexible limits, there are more or less flexible averages, upper and lower limits.

What we are looking for are the "Most" rules, that is what happens the most often, over-all and also at a pariticular strecht of times and at repetitions.

Also at Average Lower, Medium and Upper Limits. The "Most" or "Most Common" averages, both at particular Times and overall for a given long stretch of time.

----------------

Logical then might mean: Logical according to whatever stats are used.

A good enough (To some degree) prediction system might or would have both: Static and dynamic elements.

It might have static rules by which the dynamic elements of the system are figured out and used.

-----------

Using something like:

+1, -3, 0

Would be much more a static system than a dynamic one, but it is a little dynamic.

Just the same, it might be no good at least no very often.

I would not use that as a for-ever prediction technique, nor anything such as that, at very particular times something such as that could be one part of a prediction technique, that might work (Maybe) for a very short period of time.

Past stats might tell you when something like that might have some prediction value at some time(s).

---------------- 

It is not that no system works, only that we might not have a system that does work, there stil might be a system that works, somebody might have it or nobody might yet.

---------

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    hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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    Posted: August 18, 2007, 6:09 pm - IP Logged

    Lotteries are "random enough" to keep any (ANY known) system from working consistently.

    for pick3, the BEST system I backtested produced 59 straight hits in 10,500 drawings... at $1 straight it would have kept you in the black, but the lean year stretches make it impractical to pick up in the middle. that's only one half of one percent correct. I need more than that to play regularly.

    I have NEVER backtested a win in the powerball. BUT a system only need work ONE time for a jackpot game to be "beat".

    As far as I can tell, there are NO working systems... either freely available or pay-to-play. NOTHING YET can survive the scrutiny of backtesting,,, for ANY game.

    Think of how discouraging that is for the pick 3, which is nothing more than 3 sequential games of 1 in 10... now add the astronomical odds of the jackpot games and you see the as-yet impossible challenge we all face.

    BUT we keep trying, day after day, year after year...

    IF anyone can crack the system, I have no doubts that it will be someone with an LP account... I just have my doubts that it will ever be cracked.

    Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

      Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
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      Posted: August 18, 2007, 6:16 pm - IP Logged

      Lantern, I thiink that there are a number of "ways" (methods/systems) that can be used to predict things logically.  As in your example, the digit "1" cannot continue forever in the second position, let's say, of a Pick 3 draw. I've seen it often enough where a particular digit does show up for 3-4 draws in the same position, and therefore, we can see its a possibility, if not a probability.

      BUt the way I see it after years of chasing, that is not the problem.  The problem is not with picking combinations, because they will all fall eventually.  The real problem is in coming up with some way  (and I wish I knew what it was) to tell when your combination will be drawn.

      The challenge is not the numbers, but the timing.  How many of us, and how often (too often say I) have worked to get a combination, played it for several days, decided it is not coming, stopped playing it and poof  it hits the next day or so ? How annoying and frustrating !

      Some players, so desparate for a "win" decide instead to play 20-30 combinations in their chase for the ring on the merry-go-round. They may burn up more than 40 bucks in order to get a box "win"; failing to realize that they have not won....they have lost money.

      Timing is everything. And right now, that is, at best, a guess.

      ============

      How can you tell if a politician is lying?

      Answer: His lips are moving.

        Avatar
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        Posted: August 18, 2007, 9:39 pm - IP Logged

        Lantern, I thiink that there are a number of "ways" (methods/systems) that can be used to predict things logically.  As in your example, the digit "1" cannot continue forever in the second position, let's say, of a Pick 3 draw. I've seen it often enough where a particular digit does show up for 3-4 draws in the same position, and therefore, we can see its a possibility, if not a probability.

        BUt the way I see it after years of chasing, that is not the problem.  The problem is not with picking combinations, because they will all fall eventually.  The real problem is in coming up with some way  (and I wish I knew what it was) to tell when your combination will be drawn.

        The challenge is not the numbers, but the timing.  How many of us, and how often (too often say I) have worked to get a combination, played it for several days, decided it is not coming, stopped playing it and poof  it hits the next day or so ? How annoying and frustrating !

        Some players, so desparate for a "win" decide instead to play 20-30 combinations in their chase for the ring on the merry-go-round. They may burn up more than 40 bucks in order to get a box "win"; failing to realize that they have not won....they have lost money.

        Timing is everything. And right now, that is, at best, a guess.

        "BUt the way I see it after years of chasing, that is not the problem.  The problem is not with picking combinations, because they will all fall eventually.  The real problem is in coming up with some way  (and I wish I knew what it was) to tell when your combination will be drawn.

        I'd like to have the money back that I spent chasing numbers over the years too but I was playing one straight combination multiple times so when it finally did hit, I got most of my money back. Had I been hooked on 023, I'd probably be playing $50 a draw hoping to break even by now so which number we select and of course the timing is very important.

        Many years ago I subscribed to a horse racing magazine and they had a monthly spot play that was a system to pick long shots. Some of the spot plays were so complicated, you might not see a play on today's card or a week of cards but when the situation was right, you would find a 50 to 1 long shot that usually ran first or second. A handicapper probably looked at the racing form to find out how that horse could have won that race and duplicated the situation.

        Most of the logical Pick-3 systems I've seen are based on a prior group of numbers using high/low, even/odd, sums, root sums, spreads and frequency as filters to predict the next number. Maybe we should evaluate individual numbers and look at the circumstances before its last hit and only play it when the timing is right.

        If the idea is to pick one 3 digit number out of a 1000, I don't see why it's necessary for the method to be logical or even make any sense because we still only have a 1 in 1000 chance of being correct. We could create a complicated set calculations based on the last draw or I could play the number that represents that dream I had about JustExploying running naked celebrating her Lotto win and still have the same chance. 

          Avatar
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          Posted: August 18, 2007, 11:31 pm - IP Logged

          Lantern said:

          "Using something like:  +1, -3, 0  Would be much more a static system than a dynamic one, but it is a little dynamic. Just the same, it might be no good at least no very often."

          The problem with those systems is that the first digit 2 would always have to follow the digit 1, 9 after 8, etc. Statistics might show that 2 follows 1 more than any other number but that doesn't mean 5 will always follow 8 in the second digit and the last digit will repeat in the same draw.

          But the real test of any system is if it works and one that looks illogical still might be profitable.

            Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
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            Posted: August 18, 2007, 11:51 pm - IP Logged

            Most of the logical Pick-3 systems I've seen are based on a prior group of numbers using high/low, even/odd, sums, root sums, spreads and frequency as filters to predict the next number. Maybe we should evaluate individual numbers and look at the circumstances before its last hit and only play it when the timing is right.

            Only a thousand combinations to analyze the pre-conditions for?  LOL !  Talk about a life-long project. And in that many, there is bound to be a bunch that have the same pre-conditions. And what do we do with the combinations that have never fallen yet?  I would end up in a padded room.

            If the idea is to pick one 3 digit number out of a 1000, I don't see why it's necessary for the method to be logical or even make any sense because we still only have a 1 in 1000 chance of being correct. We could create a complicated set calculations based on the last draw or I could play the number that represents that dream I had about JustExploying running naked celebrating her Lotto win and still have the same chance. 

            Oooooh.  I'm not going near that one ! ROFL 

            ============

            How can you tell if a politician is lying?

            Answer: His lips are moving.

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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              Posted: August 19, 2007, 12:08 am - IP Logged

              I don't play the pick3 games but if I did and was designing a system for it I would only worry about box hits which would reduce the possible out comes to 220.  Considering the 1000 possible straight hits doesn't mean you're not going to cover yourself with a back-up box hit every time so why not just use the back-up part and save some money. 

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       

                LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
                Tx
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                Posted: August 19, 2007, 4:41 am - IP Logged

                Lantern, I thiink that there are a number of "ways" (methods/systems) that can be used to predict things logically.  As in your example, the digit "1" cannot continue forever in the second position, let's say, of a Pick 3 draw. I've seen it often enough where a particular digit does show up for 3-4 draws in the same position, and therefore, we can see its a possibility, if not a probability.

                BUt the way I see it after years of chasing, that is not the problem.  The problem is not with picking combinations, because they will all fall eventually.  The real problem is in coming up with some way  (and I wish I knew what it was) to tell when your combination will be drawn.

                The challenge is not the numbers, but the timing.  How many of us, and how often (too often say I) have worked to get a combination, played it for several days, decided it is not coming, stopped playing it and poof  it hits the next day or so ? How annoying and frustrating !

                Some players, so desparate for a "win" decide instead to play 20-30 combinations in their chase for the ring on the merry-go-round. They may burn up more than 40 bucks in order to get a box "win"; failing to realize that they have not won....they have lost money.

                Timing is everything. And right now, that is, at best, a guess.

                Texas Midday Pick 3 Previous Lottery Results

                 Draw Date  Results 
                Sat, Aug 18, 20073-5-2
                Fri, Aug 17, 20076-3-0
                Thu, Aug 16, 20075-7-8
                Wed, Aug 15, 20076-0-9
                Tue, Aug 14, 20074-8-2
                Mon, Aug 13, 20079-1-5
                Sat, Aug 11, 20071-0-1
                Fri, Aug 10, 20075-1-0
                Thu, Aug 9, 20072-5-6
                Wed, Aug 8, 20071-9-6

                As can be seen, yes digits by position do repeat sometimes for one or a few more draws, but never forever, neither for a very great number of draws, I doubt that they will repeat often by position for more than 5 sequential draws, for 3 draws should not be too uncommon.

                One digit sequential repeat by position somewhere, even more or less often, should be taken as more or less being normal.

                ----------

                The past stats might show what limits of a particular statistic can be taken as being more or less normal, one might have a need to know about more or less normal statistical limits.

                ------------- 

                Next:

                That is why I tried to develop a way of predicting for one particular state and draw and the prediction method gave a group of possible numbers to come out right on the next draw, not 1 number, but a group of them, after all,  it was a prediction for the next draw, not for next year's draw.

                -----------

                20 to 30 numbers or more for the very next draw, perhaps, but not those same numbers to be played every draw untill one of them does come out,very next draw prediction only and for only one particular state and daily draw also, that takes care of timing and place.

                -------------

                But we all post according to our own experiences.

                And I do see where you are comming from, so to speak. 

                Your post was very good, thank you much!

                ---------

                You do hit it right on the nail's head!

                Timing really is everything.

                More people might try to develop next draw prediction systems.

                Good luck. 

                 

                And good luck. 

                BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

                "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

                  LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
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                  Posted: August 19, 2007, 5:04 am - IP Logged

                  "BUt the way I see it after years of chasing, that is not the problem.  The problem is not with picking combinations, because they will all fall eventually.  The real problem is in coming up with some way  (and I wish I knew what it was) to tell when your combination will be drawn.

                  I'd like to have the money back that I spent chasing numbers over the years too but I was playing one straight combination multiple times so when it finally did hit, I got most of my money back. Had I been hooked on 023, I'd probably be playing $50 a draw hoping to break even by now so which number we select and of course the timing is very important.

                  Many years ago I subscribed to a horse racing magazine and they had a monthly spot play that was a system to pick long shots. Some of the spot plays were so complicated, you might not see a play on today's card or a week of cards but when the situation was right, you would find a 50 to 1 long shot that usually ran first or second. A handicapper probably looked at the racing form to find out how that horse could have won that race and duplicated the situation.

                  Most of the logical Pick-3 systems I've seen are based on a prior group of numbers using high/low, even/odd, sums, root sums, spreads and frequency as filters to predict the next number. Maybe we should evaluate individual numbers and look at the circumstances before its last hit and only play it when the timing is right.

                  If the idea is to pick one 3 digit number out of a 1000, I don't see why it's necessary for the method to be logical or even make any sense because we still only have a 1 in 1000 chance of being correct. We could create a complicated set calculations based on the last draw or I could play the number that represents that dream I had about JustExploying running naked celebrating her Lotto win and still have the same chance. 

                  Playing 1 straight combination, perhaps that is why it takes so very long to hit.

                  If I had, then I would not had been playing for the very next draw, but for whenever it would come out, even if it took years. 

                  Next:

                  Paterns is what is used for stats, all of those are patterns, even the pick 3 numbers themselves.

                  Timing, perhaps best to time the predicted numbers for the very next draw.

                  Why pick numbers that might come out far into the future? Next draw might be best.

                  Next:

                  The thing is to try to do better than what can be done with quick picks.

                  So maybe better to look for an edge or loop-holes (Oportunities) in so called random. 

                  As to Justxploring running naked, I thought that she had quit doing that, but if she does win a jackpot she just might start again.

                  I didn't say that, it most have been Pac, or Jap's "i".

                  Good luck and thanks also for the good post. 

                  -------------- 

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                    LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
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                    Posted: August 19, 2007, 5:20 am - IP Logged

                    Lantern said:

                    "Using something like:  +1, -3, 0  Would be much more a static system than a dynamic one, but it is a little dynamic. Just the same, it might be no good at least no very often."

                    The problem with those systems is that the first digit 2 would always have to follow the digit 1, 9 after 8, etc. Statistics might show that 2 follows 1 more than any other number but that doesn't mean 5 will always follow 8 in the second digit and the last digit will repeat in the same draw.

                    But the real test of any system is if it works and one that looks illogical still might be profitable.

                    +1, -3, 0

                    That might have been misunderstod.

                    It is like the +1, +2, +3 "System" for example:

                    Last draw 938 = :

                    9 + 1 = 0 on first position for next draw or whatever.

                    3 - 3 = 0 on second position for next draw. 

                    8 + 0 = 8, stays the same for next draw or whatever.

                    ---------

                    It was just a quickly made up example and not a working system for any particular game or draw.

                    ------------ 

                    A system based on stats might have a better chance of making it on a game such as the pick 3.

                    At least in a more regular basis, not like a once in a life-time win, such as with quick picks.

                    -------

                    Thanks again and good points.

                    We all have our own points of view and we are not about to give them up no time soon, not for anybody. 

                    BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

                    "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

                      LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
                      Tx
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                      Posted: August 19, 2007, 5:26 am - IP Logged

                      Most of the logical Pick-3 systems I've seen are based on a prior group of numbers using high/low, even/odd, sums, root sums, spreads and frequency as filters to predict the next number. Maybe we should evaluate individual numbers and look at the circumstances before its last hit and only play it when the timing is right.

                      Only a thousand combinations to analyze the pre-conditions for?  LOL !  Talk about a life-long project. And in that many, there is bound to be a bunch that have the same pre-conditions. And what do we do with the combinations that have never fallen yet?  I would end up in a padded room.

                      If the idea is to pick one 3 digit number out of a 1000, I don't see why it's necessary for the method to be logical or even make any sense because we still only have a 1 in 1000 chance of being correct. We could create a complicated set calculations based on the last draw or I could play the number that represents that dream I had about JustExploying running naked celebrating her Lotto win and still have the same chance. 

                      Oooooh.  I'm not going near that one ! ROFL 

                      I think that even for straight I used from 1 to about 45 past draws, no, It really was from 1 to 10 past draws as I can't get more than 10 past draws from the LP results and more often than not was too lazy to go elsewhere for the past draws.

                      BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

                      "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

                        LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
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                        Posted: August 19, 2007, 5:32 am - IP Logged

                        I don't play the pick3 games but if I did and was designing a system for it I would only worry about box hits which would reduce the possible out comes to 220.  Considering the 1000 possible straight hits doesn't mean you're not going to cover yourself with a back-up box hit every time so why not just use the back-up part and save some money. 

                        Well! I myself did worry mostly about box hits, it did appear to be easier.

                        But did try straights a few times, too few times to develop a better system for straights.

                        Thanks. 

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                        "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

                          LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
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                          Posted: August 19, 2007, 6:05 am - IP Logged

                          Lotteries are "random enough" to keep any (ANY known) system from working consistently.

                          for pick3, the BEST system I backtested produced 59 straight hits in 10,500 drawings... at $1 straight it would have kept you in the black, but the lean year stretches make it impractical to pick up in the middle. that's only one half of one percent correct. I need more than that to play regularly.

                          I have NEVER backtested a win in the powerball. BUT a system only need work ONE time for a jackpot game to be "beat".

                          As far as I can tell, there are NO working systems... either freely available or pay-to-play. NOTHING YET can survive the scrutiny of backtesting,,, for ANY game.

                          Think of how discouraging that is for the pick 3, which is nothing more than 3 sequential games of 1 in 10... now add the astronomical odds of the jackpot games and you see the as-yet impossible challenge we all face.

                          BUT we keep trying, day after day, year after year...

                          IF anyone can crack the system, I have no doubts that it will be someone with an LP account... I just have my doubts that it will ever be cracked.

                          1. I have never been sure if they are random enough or not.

                          Due to it or to whatever they do seem to keep most or all people from winning often, or Do people keep themselves from winning often? I have never been sure of that either.

                          2. If I had played only one straight combo per draw, perhaps I would had said the same thing, or might had been even worse for me.

                          3. Jaclpot games? Yes, one good win would do if it would come soon enough.

                          As with all gambling, "Stay away from that which you can't profit from" 

                          4. In the very long run, you say? I don't know, but perhaps you are right and again maybe not, as I said, I don't at this time know.

                          -------- 

                          Do you still remember long ago the one and only time that I sent to you a more or less private prediction of mine, a prediction for the very next draw of some state, I sent the same predicted numbers at about the same time to from about 3 to 6 people, I can't remember to how many, maybe to 5 people, but only to a few, it has been the only time ever that I have sent any predictions to anybody by P.M. and or email as far as I can remember.

                          Maybe you would like to tell people how the prediction did? 

                          As most of my posted predicitons have been, it was made with enough time before the draw and for only one draw and one state, at least I think that it was like that, same as most others that I have posted here at LP.

                          Also I think that it was to be a boxed prediction same as most of my predictions have been.

                          ------ 

                          We all speak from what we have seen.

                          Thanks and good luck. 

                          BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

                          "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

                            hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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                            Posted: August 19, 2007, 12:27 pm - IP Logged

                            2. If I had played only one straight combo per draw, perhaps I would had said the same thing, or might had been even worse for me.

                            My theory now is that when you play more than one ticket, you bet against yourself. Keep in mind I am in the black with pick 3 this year from playing one combo that hit $500, and I didn't even play the pick3 all year, just for a few months.... BUT backtesting shows 1 hit a year... 3 at best, so I dropped it after july. system shows most hits (over the entire 27 year history) in september so I will run another test of it live in september. Will still be ahead this year so far. first year in the last 5 years that I can say that.

                            It seems the trick for my style (one ticket per draw) is to know when NOT to play...

                            I will have to scan my thumb drive archives, I think I saved your posts there (maybe not the prediction, but the system you were trying to describe that I could never figure out how to code into VB or excel)

                            Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

                              LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
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                              Posted: August 19, 2007, 2:15 pm - IP Logged

                              2. If I had played only one straight combo per draw, perhaps I would had said the same thing, or might had been even worse for me.

                              My theory now is that when you play more than one ticket, you bet against yourself. Keep in mind I am in the black with pick 3 this year from playing one combo that hit $500, and I didn't even play the pick3 all year, just for a few months.... BUT backtesting shows 1 hit a year... 3 at best, so I dropped it after july. system shows most hits (over the entire 27 year history) in september so I will run another test of it live in september. Will still be ahead this year so far. first year in the last 5 years that I can say that.

                              It seems the trick for my style (one ticket per draw) is to know when NOT to play...

                              I will have to scan my thumb drive archives, I think I saved your posts there (maybe not the prediction, but the system you were trying to describe that I could never figure out how to code into VB or excel)

                              I could had tried to develop a one number for draw system that might make or not a profit on the long run, but that would mean that I would had to look and study the stats of the whole pick 3 numbers themseves besides that of the other patterns that they have, I would had to look at stats of whole 3 digit pick 3 numbers of thousands of draws, not something that I would like to do.

                              By the way, there is a whole book or two of my filters posts here at LP if you can't find the stuff on your drive. 

                              Thanks! 

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