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Pick 3 : When is the system "Beat"?

Topic closed. 36 replies. Last post 9 years ago by time*treat.

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When can a pick 3 system be considered good?

When it backtests hits to cover the bets [ 10 ]  [19.61%]
when a certain percentage of picks are hits [ 11 ]  [21.57%]
having a short gap between hits [ 19 ]  [37.25%]
Other (explain please ;-) ) [ 11 ]  [21.57%]
Total Valid Votes [ 51 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 5 ]  
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New Member
LaFollette, TN
United States
Member #54790
August 29, 2007
24 Posts
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Posted: September 12, 2007, 6:25 pm - IP Logged

Just put your numbers up on the Prediction Board, or even in a post. Talk is cheap. No personal offense meant, but we get posts like yours above all the time from new members.  Never once has it ever been borne out to be true when the poster is required to post his predictions.

Well, you know what?  I'll do that.

As far as your comment  "Never once has it ever been borne out to be true..."  If you PM me, I'll give you the link to my blog too.  Then you can see for yourself since I post the numbers FAR in advance of the draws.

A final note.. I'm in TN, so let's make this interesting. I'm going to post the plays for the state of LA.  (I didn't even know they had a pick 3 until this afternoon.)

Pete

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    United States
    Member #41846
    June 23, 2006
    458 Posts
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    Posted: September 12, 2007, 7:53 pm - IP Logged

    I voted for other.  I backtest to prove a concept has won in the past. forward testing is imho more inportant.  by that I mean once you have backtested and found it has worked in the past, play it on paper for at least a month. every "system" I have worked with that shows promise has some hot streaks and long dead spells.

    my problem is I can see the streaks about the time they end, but don't recognize the dead zone untill i've wasted some money.

    p8 

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      United States
      Member #3222
      January 4, 2004
      80 Posts
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      Posted: September 12, 2007, 8:58 pm - IP Logged

      A system imo is only worth playing if it can win consistently enough that you never have to use a progressive wagering scheme. In other words based on the averages of how many times it hits and the number of plays in the end you always come out ahead.

      My problem is I’ve got good systems it’s just that the odds are so heavily in favor of the state that the only way to come out on top is through an effective filtering method that can greatly reduce the number of plays each time. So far it’s been an uphill battle because too often the winning number gets thrown out with the bad ones and that’s what makes system playing a real challenge.

        amilby30's avatar - nw logo.jpg
        Cobb
        United States
        Member #26586
        November 19, 2005
        9688 Posts
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        Posted: September 12, 2007, 9:04 pm - IP Logged

        A system is "Beat" when you use MY system! :)

        My computer is a #2 pencil and a sheet of paper.  It takes me UNDER 5-minutes to figure out my numbers.

        Though it DOES NOT happen on a regular basis, I've hit the TN Cash 3 game every draw in the past 2 days.  (Mon & Tue, Mid and Evening.)

        I AVERAGE a win every 4-5 days. No high level math, no "sums", no +/- BS.  Write 'em down, add 'em up, and WIN.

        Since you're not allowed to post your website or blog info unless it's hosted here, can't tell you what I'm doing.

        Pete
        Playing the lotto is fun!  Winning is "funner".

        lol nice i like that,i too think the key to winning on a regular is very simple patterns and paying atention atleast in georgia .If i were you i would keep my system to myself and just post your numbers and help in that way if you want to help.

        I LOVE THIS SPORT !!   BY30PREDICTIONS

          hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
          Pennsylvania
          United States
          Member #1340
          April 6, 2003
          2450 Posts
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          Posted: September 12, 2007, 9:36 pm - IP Logged

          My current LRS has the following stats (against PA pick3 evening)...

          51 straight hits in 10,500+ draws (less than half a percent)

          returned 15,000 in addition to covering the 10,500 to play (on paper)

           

            Is my math wrong or does it take 28.76 years to make that profit?

            Would that mean iy makes $521.55 a year?

          ez

          Exactly...

          in rounded terms

          365 a year in bets (fixed) to win an average of $500 a year

          roughly 135 profit (over the looooong haul)

          I picked a straight hit this year, then dropped it for a few months... only dabbling in pick3 anyway... it's just easier to develop for powerball using the simpler pick3 as a proving ground.

          Does anyone have anything that produces more than that playing just one number straight? I thought that was doing good for this scenario... maybe I'm way off...

          I have one more tweak to make on the system this weekend to see if I can't close the long gaps... And to make a few mods and test against PA eve pick4. A hit @ 5,000:1 goes a long way... :-)

          Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

            Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
            Indiana
            United States
            Member #48725
            January 7, 2007
            1953 Posts
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            Posted: September 13, 2007, 12:00 am - IP Logged

            Exactly...

            in rounded terms

            365 a year in bets (fixed) to win an average of $500 a year

            roughly 135 profit (over the looooong haul)

            I picked a straight hit this year, then dropped it for a few months... only dabbling in pick3 anyway... it's just easier to develop for powerball using the simpler pick3 as a proving ground.

            Does anyone have anything that produces more than that playing just one number straight? I thought that was doing good for this scenario... maybe I'm way off...

            I have one more tweak to make on the system this weekend to see if I can't close the long gaps... And to make a few mods and test against PA eve pick4. A hit @ 5,000:1 goes a long way... :-)

            Some systems aren't designed to win prizes, frequently, even the lower tier prizes. It just depends on the system. Some systems might be designed to target the jackpot winning set, eliminating some of the winning sets that might be lower tier. I'm going to say that a system is beat when you stop believing in it.

            Gonna win.Big Smile

              LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
              Tx
              United States
              Member #4570
              May 4, 2004
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              Posted: September 13, 2007, 3:30 am - IP Logged

              Exactly...

              in rounded terms

              365 a year in bets (fixed) to win an average of $500 a year

              roughly 135 profit (over the looooong haul)

              I picked a straight hit this year, then dropped it for a few months... only dabbling in pick3 anyway... it's just easier to develop for powerball using the simpler pick3 as a proving ground.

              Does anyone have anything that produces more than that playing just one number straight? I thought that was doing good for this scenario... maybe I'm way off...

              I have one more tweak to make on the system this weekend to see if I can't close the long gaps... And to make a few mods and test against PA eve pick4. A hit @ 5,000:1 goes a long way... :-)

              I don't know if I can or not develop a system that would win straight at least 2 times every year as I have no way of testing against past draws any systems that I might think of.

              A computer programer who also knows how to predict would have the bigger advantage over somebody like me, who knows a little about lottery prediction, but can't program.

              Prediction "Rules" are not made, but instead are found (If any) on the patterns of past draws.

              BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

              "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

                Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
                Wisconsin
                United States
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                March 27, 2003
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                Posted: September 13, 2007, 7:53 am - IP Logged

                Everyone is looking for some sort of edge, some small advantage that will allow them an easier path to a win but so far unless they're lucky it's only a dream.  For most players, one dollars gets them the same results as ten or more 90% of the time.  It may not be as much fun to spend only one dollar and lose but it more fun than spending ten or more and getting the same results.  No one likes waiting for a hit, but what other choice is available?  For some, simply spending more money is not an option.

                While I can not prove it, I think your comment does cover the vast majority of us here.

                ============

                How can you tell if a politician is lying?

                Answer: His lips are moving.

                  WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                  Stone Mountain*Georgia
                  United States
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                  November 2, 2002
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                  Posted: September 14, 2007, 12:43 pm - IP Logged

                  While I can not prove it, I think your comment does cover the vast majority of us here.

                                           

                                              Nom de pL00m  !   Sac reh  Blue  !  Sac a rin ! 

                                                Lay  No ....you did not say that !  

                   

                   

                  The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                         Win d    

                    WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                    Stone Mountain*Georgia
                    United States
                    Member #828
                    November 2, 2002
                    10491 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: September 14, 2007, 1:17 pm - IP Logged

                                             

                                                Nom de pL00m  !   Sac reh  Blue  !  Sac a rin ! 

                                                  Lay  No ....you did not say that !  

                                              .

                      

                     Thick German Accent OK......

                    " Very Interesting ....

                    Vi...do I have such a strong desire .....to March on dat guy's face" ?    YAH  !

                     

                     

                    The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                  Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                  Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                           Win d    

                      JAP69's avatar - alas
                      South Carolina
                      United States
                      Member #6
                      November 4, 2001
                      8790 Posts
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                      Posted: September 16, 2007, 2:16 pm - IP Logged

                      I don't know if I can or not develop a system that would win straight at least 2 times every year as I have no way of testing against past draws any systems that I might think of.

                      A computer programer who also knows how to predict would have the bigger advantage over somebody like me, who knows a little about lottery prediction, but can't program.

                      Prediction "Rules" are not made, but instead are found (If any) on the patterns of past draws.

                      I have a simple theory to program but can not program.

                      I have complex theories too.

                      If I had someone program them they might run off with it.

                      WHATT

                        Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
                        Wisconsin
                        United States
                        Member #1303
                        March 27, 2003
                        1508 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: September 16, 2007, 6:04 pm - IP Logged

                        A system imo is only worth playing if it can win consistently enough that you never have to use a progressive wagering scheme. In other words based on the averages of how many times it hits and the number of plays in the end you always come out ahead.

                        My problem is I’ve got good systems it’s just that the odds are so heavily in favor of the state that the only way to come out on top is through an effective filtering method that can greatly reduce the number of plays each time. So far it’s been an uphill battle because too often the winning number gets thrown out with the bad ones and that’s what makes system playing a real challenge.

                        I don't think anyone could put that any more precisely than you did.  Those of us that have been chasing P3 for years have all experienced this exact same thing.  There doesn't seem to be a system that works consistently enough to insure a profit, and it is usually because the odds are so much in the favor of the state.

                        Which means trying to chase a winner in any of the jackpot games is much, much worse.

                        ============

                        How can you tell if a politician is lying?

                        Answer: His lips are moving.

                          Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
                          Wisconsin
                          United States
                          Member #1303
                          March 27, 2003
                          1508 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: September 16, 2007, 6:09 pm - IP Logged

                                                   

                                                      Nom de pL00m  !   Sac reh  Blue  !  Sac a rin ! 

                                                        Lay  No ....you did not say that !  

                          Yes, of course I did say that Win_D.  I think the vast majority of us here do not consider spending more money as an option.  If we were rolling in dough, most of us would not be playing the lottery.

                          ============

                          How can you tell if a politician is lying?

                          Answer: His lips are moving.

                            WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                            Stone Mountain*Georgia
                            United States
                            Member #828
                            November 2, 2002
                            10491 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: September 16, 2007, 6:50 pm - IP Logged

                             Ofcourse .....Badger.

                             

                             Something that you say when you believe that what you will say next is generally accepted or understood..... ofcourse.  It goes without saying.
                                 Don't forget to have fun. There is always an entertainment value in all of this .......if one remembers to stay positive.....and  holds their mouth right.  Big Smile   

                             

                             

                            The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                          Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                          Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                                   Win d    

                              hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
                              Pennsylvania
                              United States
                              Member #1340
                              April 6, 2003
                              2450 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: September 16, 2007, 10:27 pm - IP Logged

                              It could be the game... using the latest version of LRS...

                              my best for PA p3 evening 54 hits in 10,510 draws, 0.51% net profit = $16,490 over 29 years ($568 per year)

                              pa pick3 MIDDAY 24 hits in 1,683 draws, 1.43% net profit = $10,317 over 5 years ($2,063 per year)

                              pa pick4 Evening 25 hits in 7,996 draws, 0.31% net profit = $117,004 over 22 years ($5,318 per year)

                              I didn't do pick4 midday yet, but I expect similar results. PA Mid-day pick3 has the shortest gaps (several wins per year) with the highest percent of hits to draws, where pa eve. pick4 has the highest profit (5000:1) with the lowest % of wins to draws

                              Playing just 1 number for any of these games keeps it fun... not sickened by a $1 loss like I would be by $40 lost or $100 lost...

                              anyone have a better single-line system? don't gotta share it, just want to know if it exists. Wondering if I'm onto something, or if everyone else is getting much better results.

                              Where's the other Charlie Buckets out there who stand in lines of people playing dozens of numbers to get your one number in...?

                              here's hoping we all have a shot at the golden ticket one day. :-)

                              Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.