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Is it worth buying a large number of tickets once a year?

Topic closed. 46 replies. Last post 9 years ago by RJOh.

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Which choice do you prefer?

CHOICE A: Spending $20 every week on lotto tickets [ 34 ]  [80.95%]
CHOICE B: Buying 1040 ($20 x 52) tickets annually [ 8 ]  [19.05%]
Total Valid Votes [ 42 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 3 ]  
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NY
United States
Member #23835
October 16, 2005
3474 Posts
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Posted: November 20, 2007, 2:19 am - IP Logged

It's probably apocryphal, but I heard a story along those lines from the owner at the first place I ever bought a ticket, somewhere around the early to mid 80's.  My recollection is that it was in Maryland, and they supposedly sold their house to buy tickets. As I recall they had the very stupid idea that there were only 16,000 (or perhaps 60,000) combinations and that their "investment" was a sure thing.

    fja's avatar - gnome1

    United States
    Member #91
    January 19, 2002
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    Posted: November 20, 2007, 8:38 am - IP Logged

    If you are only going to play once a year then you'll have plenty of opportunities to simulate playing 1040 lines and checking the results to decide if this is the way to go.

    I did that once,,,,Over 5,000 combos I simulated,,,,at the end of a year I had a 14% return on my original investment......$500,000 spent and $70,000 won....I play 5 bucks a week!

    "Everybody has to believe in something...I believe I'll have another beer!"   = W.C.Fields                      

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
      United States
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      March 24, 2001
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      Posted: November 20, 2007, 11:51 pm - IP Logged

      I did that once,,,,Over 5,000 combos I simulated,,,,at the end of a year I had a 14% return on my original investment......$500,000 spent and $70,000 won....I play 5 bucks a week!

      Did you use the same 5,000 combos for every drawing or did you pick a new set after each drawing as you updated your database?

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

        fja's avatar - gnome1

        United States
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        January 19, 2002
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        Posted: November 21, 2007, 6:49 am - IP Logged

        Did you use the same 5,000 combos for every drawing or did you pick a new set after each drawing as you updated your database?

        I used the same combos for every draw,,,,,It was taking too long to check the lines out and score the ones that had a 3+0 or better.....even with format conditioning....

        "Everybody has to believe in something...I believe I'll have another beer!"   = W.C.Fields                      

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
          United States
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          March 24, 2001
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          Posted: November 21, 2007, 11:14 am - IP Logged

          I used the same combos for every draw,,,,,It was taking too long to check the lines out and score the ones that had a 3+0 or better.....even with format conditioning....

          The program I have can check 5,000 combos in a few seconds but the largest file I can create and check with the data base and check against itself to avoid duplication is 500.  To do more I would have to completely rewrite the program and 500 is a lot more than I'm likely to ever play for real even if I was in a lottery pool. 

          When picking combos to play, I've gone beyond the 10-20 that I play and picked 500 to see how much better I could do if I played more lines and there's usually a match 4 or two but over all the payback would be about 20% of the ticket costs.

          I've done this with Ohio Classic Lotto and MegaMillions.  With MM I usually have all 46 bonus numbers 8-15 times but if I could reduce the bonus numbers to 10 or less and be right most of the time the percent of payback would be a lot better.

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

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            NY
            United States
            Member #23835
            October 16, 2005
            3474 Posts
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            Posted: November 22, 2007, 1:50 am - IP Logged

            I did that once,,,,Over 5,000 combos I simulated,,,,at the end of a year I had a 14% return on my original investment......$500,000 spent and $70,000 won....I play 5 bucks a week!

            Assuming it was for a typical jackpot game it sounds like that was enough to let you come pretty close to what probability suggests. The expected payout may be 50%, but even with 500,000 chances you're unlikely to win the jackpot. If 30 cents goes to the jackpot that leaves 20% for the other prizes. On PB and MM those would still be long shots, so you couldn't expect to get back the percentage that goes to the second tier prizes. Betting more money should mean winning more money, but most of the time it also means losing more money. 

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
              United States
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              March 24, 2001
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              Posted: November 22, 2007, 8:58 pm - IP Logged

              I did that once,,,,Over 5,000 combos I simulated,,,,at the end of a year I had a 14% return on my original investment......$500,000 spent and $70,000 won....I play 5 bucks a week!

              I ran a similar test using the 543 drawings of the old Ohio Super Lotto Plus as a play file with the new Ohio Classic Lotto (131 drawings so far) and got the follow results.

                                        TOTAL MATCHES

                                      MATCH  0 = 31081     
                                      MATCH  1 = 29311     
                                      MATCH  2 = 9490       
                                      MATCH  3 = 1183       
                                      MATCH  4 = 67         
                                      MATCH  5 = 1         
                                      MATCH  6 = 0         
                 
                           TOTAL PRIZES = $ 8556 + 0 JACKPOTS
                      checked 543 records 131 times = 71133 plays

              Had I done that, it would have cost $71,133 and return $8,556 or 12% of what I would have spent.

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                mid-Ohio
                United States
                Member #9
                March 24, 2001
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                Posted: November 23, 2007, 10:12 am - IP Logged

                I wanted to ask all of you for your opinion, since I truly believe that the smartest and most talented lottery players browse through these forums ......

                 

                I was thinking of flying somewhere for vacation.  I haven't bought any lottery tickets in almost a year, and I had considered buying a large number of tickets during a vacation once a year.  If you spend, let's say, $20 a week on lottery tickets, is it worth saving all that money to play 1040 tickets ($20 x 52 = $1040) once a year annually.  The odds would be MUCH greater buying 1040 tickets for that annual drawing, but if you play every drawing, at least you would have a chance on every drawing.  Is it worth the wait?  Your thoughts......

                As you can probably tell from most of the responses, you aren't going to buy luck by simply buying a lot of tickets.  You're probably going to have to have a strategy for picking that many numbers to maximize your chances of a win too.  I'm  sure other LP members are testing and trying to develop such a strategy since they have the tools to do so, but so far none have presented a strategy that shows any promise.

                I looked at the top predictors and there is a mix of members who post over 2000 predictions a day and those who post less than a 100 a day.  I don't know if any of these members use strategies or just random luck to make their picks but the number of postings doesn't seem to give an advantage for winning to any of them.  I would think the same is true for anyone who actually plays, buying more tickets just buys you more chances to win or lose.

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking       

                  fja's avatar - gnome1

                  United States
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                  Posted: November 23, 2007, 10:17 am - IP Logged

                  Currently I am running a simulated game on MM.  I have 15 lines that I score from (same 15 all year, using 39 wb's and 15 mb's), I actually play the top 5 lines after I adjust them based on previous draws.  For 2007 in the simulated game I would have spent $1395 and my return so far is $334 or 24%.  Only in the month of September did i fininsh above what I spent when I actually hit on a 4+0 for $150. For actual money spent I have $465 invested and $284 in cash returns or 61%. 

                  I also run the same simulated game for PB for 2007 I would have spent $1395 and I have $209 in simulated wins, or 15%.  surprisingly I have hit the PB atleast 43 times in the last 93 draws , but for nothing higher  than a 2+1....   

                  "Everybody has to believe in something...I believe I'll have another beer!"   = W.C.Fields                      

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                    New Member

                    United States
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                    Posted: November 29, 2007, 12:31 pm - IP Logged

                    Look at it this way - the odds of winning the grand prize in any Powerball drawing is 1 in 146,107,962.  That's how many number combinations there are for that game.  Using an earlier posted example, the player was thinking of buying $1,040 worth of tickets.  So, 146,107,962 minus 1,040 means he has left 146,106,922 possible combinations uncovered.  Even if one was to spend $107,962 on the purchase of tickets for one draw there would still be 146,000,000 combinations uncovered.   Winning is dumb luck, folks.   Don't waste your time on simulations, systems and the like. 

                      JordanT1021's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg
                      North Carolina
                      United States
                      Member #53121
                      June 24, 2007
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                      Posted: November 29, 2007, 12:43 pm - IP Logged

                      Between the options given I'd say $20 a week, and here's why....

                      I call it "Slim Fast syndrome" - I'm sure there's people here who can realte to this - you're trying to take off a few pounds and decide to go the Slim Fast route. So you're going to subtitute a meal or two a day with Slim Fast - ho ho!

                      What really happens is you eat anyway- but now you've already had the Slim Fast - so on top of what you're eating you've added a can of two or Slim Fast a day.

                      In other words, you set out to spend $1040 on lottery alll at once- and you do- and human nature kicks in and now you're going the $20 a week, too.

                      excellant point. well taken

                      Quoted by favor4:

                      Your winning number is not under attack. It's about to HIT. So Hang In There"

                        Elizabeth03's avatar - cat anm.gif
                        Nova Scotia
                        Canada
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                        December 27, 2004
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                        Posted: November 29, 2007, 1:35 pm - IP Logged

                        I'll buy tickets in advance for weeks ahead of time, that way I don't worry about missing a weekly draw.Dance

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                          Sunny California
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                          Posted: November 29, 2007, 1:49 pm - IP Logged

                          I think it's better to space it out and keep yourself in the game all year long instead of one big purchase. Just because you buy a lot of tickets at once doesn't mean a thing.

                            rundown99's avatar - cigar

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                            August 14, 2002
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                            Posted: December 3, 2007, 11:40 am - IP Logged

                            Look at it this way - the odds of winning the grand prize in any Powerball drawing is 1 in 146,107,962.  That's how many number combinations there are for that game.  Using an earlier posted example, the player was thinking of buying $1,040 worth of tickets.  So, 146,107,962 minus 1,040 means he has left 146,106,922 possible combinations uncovered.  Even if one was to spend $107,962 on the purchase of tickets for one draw there would still be 146,000,000 combinations uncovered.   Winning is dumb luck, folks.   Don't waste your time on simulations, systems and the like. 

                            You are absolutely correct on this one!  That is why I believe that quick pick is a better strategy to use.  Aside from the known fact that the lottery is totally random anyway, there are so many possible combinations in powerball (146,107,962 combinations) that no matter what strategy you have, in order to actually win the jackpot, you would have to be extremely lucky.

                            Smart lottery winners form trust to claim their winnings.  They send an attorney to the lottery headquarters to claim the prize in trust, so that ONLY the name of the trust is revealed.  And they tell NO ONE, especially relatives.

                            If you ever win a lottery and you are single, the only person you should ever marry is someone who was truly in love with you BEFORE you won the jackpot!

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                              Falls Church
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                              December 11, 2007
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                              Posted: December 11, 2007, 1:02 pm - IP Logged

                              I wanted to ask all of you for your opinion, since I truly believe that the smartest and most talented lottery players browse through these forums ......

                               

                              I was thinking of flying somewhere for vacation.  I haven't bought any lottery tickets in almost a year, and I had considered buying a large number of tickets during a vacation once a year.  If you spend, let's say, $20 a week on lottery tickets, is it worth saving all that money to play 1040 tickets ($20 x 52 = $1040) once a year annually.  The odds would be MUCH greater buying 1040 tickets for that annual drawing, but if you play every drawing, at least you would have a chance on every drawing.  Is it worth the wait?  Your thoughts......

                              I was hoping that someone could explain to me what a 1040 ticket is.  Any help you can provide, I would greatly appreciate it.  Much thanks.

                               Tim