Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited January 20, 2017, 2:30 am
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Suggested QP VS Choosing Survey Project

Topic closed. 56 replies. Last post 9 years ago by Stack47.

Page 4 of 4
3.54
PrintE-mailLink
Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
Member #30470
January 17, 2006
10391 Posts
Offline
Posted: January 1, 2008, 12:56 am - IP Logged

And a $100,000 Happy New Year to a lucky person in rockport:

LITTLE LOTTO PRIZE PAYOUTS FOR MONDAY, DECEMBER 31, 2007
 
 
 WINNING  NUMBERS: 14 - 19 - 20 - 27 - 35
 
 
 PLAYERS MATCHING 5 OF 5  NUMBERS
    INCLUDING SUBSCRIPTION WINNERS            1
 EACH PLAYER WILL  RECEIVE           $100,000.00
 
       WINNING TICKETS WERE SOLD AT
   
       200884    LOCKPORT CITGO              (QP)
                 1228 S  STATE STREET
                 LOCKPORT/60441
 
 __________________________________

 

So for 31 days that's 9 QP winners and 12 non-QP winners.  

The average win for a QP jackpot winner was $154, 375,

for a non-QP jackpot winner was $133, 250.  

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

Lep

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

    Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
    Zeta Reticuli Star System
    United States
    Member #30470
    January 17, 2006
    10391 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: January 2, 2008, 12:50 pm - IP Logged

    OK, so for a 31 day run we had 21 jackpot winners in 31 days.

    (The 21 winners counts jackpots that were split, there were 12 jackpots in the 31 days). 

    3 days really isn't enough to draw any conclusions, but on this run we've seen that a QP is more likely to be a solo hit and the average QP jackpot is about $21,000 more than a picked-number jackpot. 

    Mere "chump change" as compared to a Pick 6 or 5 +1, but how many of us have $21,000 in our pockets?

    I'm going to start a thread in Jackpot Games. Pick 5 and track rghe Illinois Pick 5 game for at least 90 days, not in as much detail as this one was, just listing what the jackpot was and what kind of ticket hit it.

    Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

    Lep

    There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

      justxploring's avatar - villiarna
      Wandering Aimlessly
      United States
      Member #25360
      November 5, 2005
      4461 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: January 2, 2008, 1:45 pm - IP Logged

      Okay CT, I am also seeing just as many non-QP winners.  The thing about pick-5 here is that you can win over $250k or end up with $25,000 if there are multiple winners.  Rarely is there more than one winner in Lotto or MegaMoney, but of course the jackpots are much higher & the odds are much greater.  All the games cost a dollar.  I guess I just need to decide on which game I'm going to waste my dollar.

       Wink 

       

      So far since Sunday 

      $201,876  split 3 way -  2 QP and 1 non-QP   12/30

      $274,144  one winner -  not a QP    12/31

      $194,439  split 3 ways - 1 QP and 2 non-QP    01/01

       

      So from what you & I seem to be noticing, maybe it only seemed as if the QPs were winning all the time because of the way the results are shown.  I mean, when the winning number is a QP or a Free Ticket, they show it next to the location.  When the player uses his/her own numbers, it doesn't say "not a quick pick."   I can't say if this is the case with the huge Lotto jackpots, since only 7 or 8 people win per year.  Last jackpot of $47 million was split 2 ways and one was a QP and the other wasn't.

      CARBOB's extensive research is more accurate than mine so I guess we should just conclude that the frequent suggestion that a QP is luckier or wins more often is misleading.

        Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
        Zeta Reticuli Star System
        United States
        Member #30470
        January 17, 2006
        10391 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: January 2, 2008, 6:58 pm - IP Logged

        I'm thinking the time period I picked was a fluke, judging by the e-mails I get from the Illinois Lottery with the Little Lotto results.

        Want me to forward 365 e-mails to you?

        Green laugh

        2007 Jackpots: 

        Jan:  14 QP, 6 player selected numbers

        Feb:  13 QP, 6 player selected numbers

        Mar:  16 QP, 4 player seplected numbers 

        For those 89 days that was 43 QP winners and 16 player's numbers winners, or 72.8% QPs.

        Need I keep going? 

        Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

        Lep

        There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

          Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
          Zeta Reticuli Star System
          United States
          Member #30470
          January 17, 2006
          10391 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: January 2, 2008, 7:54 pm - IP Logged

          Con't...

          This is getting interesting.....

          Apr: 10 QP, 3 player selected numbers

          May: 8 QP, 9 player selected numbers.

          One of those 9 was a subscription winner (first one thus far)

          Of those 9, including the sub. winner, 5 were for the same jackpot:

          LITTLE LOTTO PRIZE PAYOUTS FOR THURSDAY, MAY 17, 2007
           
           
          WINNING  NUMBERS: 05 - 06 - 08 - 10 - 13
           
           
           PLAYER(S) MATCHING 5 OF 5  NUMBERS
              INCLUDING SUBSCRIPTION WINNERS:           5
           EACH PLAYER WILL  RECEIVE:           $20,000.00
           
                 WINNING TICKET(S) WERE SOLD  AT:
           
                 201233    PACKYS LIQUOR STORE
                           1440  OAKTON ST
                           DES PLAINES/60018
           
                 600240     RANTOUL IGA
                           RT 136 EAST
                            RANTOUL/61866
           
                 500251    ILLICO OIL #134
                            10013 LANCASTER RD
                           MAPLETON/61547
           
                 188037     JJ PEPPERS FOOD STORE 01
                           6740 N RIDGE  AVE
                           CHICAGO/60626
           
           
                 NUMBER OF  SUBSCRIPTION WINNERS:        1
           
                 CITY OF SUBSCRIBER(S):  MOUNT  PROSPECT

          _______________________________________

           

          Notice the numbers were all low, with the highest number being 13. It seems when the numbers are like this the jackpot is much more likely top be split.

          Systems player? Birthdays?

          Nice to pick up $20,000 (pre-tax), but the one night you do hit having four opthers hit too would just have to "frost" ya, wouldn't it?

          TBC

          Coin Toss 

          Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

          Lep

          There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

            derek7's avatar - speedykat
            IL
            United States
            Member #34578
            March 4, 2006
            198 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: January 2, 2008, 8:06 pm - IP Logged

            Yeah, probably birthdays...
            I do not like QPs and I will never admit they are better than self picks. All these sayings: "more sales of QPs - more winners of QPs" make sense after all.

            /Derek 

              justxploring's avatar - villiarna
              Wandering Aimlessly
              United States
              Member #25360
              November 5, 2005
              4461 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: January 2, 2008, 8:52 pm - IP Logged

              Definitely.  There are only 12 months and 31 days, so I think when numbers all fall below 31 they are usually birthdays and anniversaries.  Either someone will choose the day his/her children were born or the month & day and add an anniversay.  I know people who do that. 

              On the other hand, there are a lot of fantasy-5 combinations that have low numbers where there is only 1 winner, others that have 5 or 6 or even 10. 

                Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                Zeta Reticuli Star System
                United States
                Member #30470
                January 17, 2006
                10391 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: January 3, 2008, 12:10 am - IP Logged

                Well, it's still the luck factor....let's say your numbers are 2  4  6  8  11

                There's still nothing to say that the night you play them and they hit how many others will have also played them - or not!

                2007 continued:

                Jun: 10QP, 3 player selected numbers

                Jul: 11 QP, 9 player selecteed numbers

                Aug:  11QP, 6 player selected numbers

                Sep: 12QP, 2 player selected numbers

                9-11 Jackpot was $1,150,000, winner was a QP

                As an example, there were 8 jackpots for September, 14 winners- 12 of the 14 QP, 2 not...

                Oct: 15 jackpots hit

                10 winners were QP, 16 were player selected (a lot of split jackpots that October)

                NOV: 11 Jackpots hit

                7 winners were QP, 5 were player selected

                 (6 days missing when I didn't get the e-mails)

                DEC:

                11 Jackpots hit

                9 were QP, 11 were player selected

                ________________________________________

                 So just totaling the winners (calling a jackpot shared by 3 winners 3, for example) we have:

                Jan 14 QP  6 P (player numbers)

                Feb 13 QP  1 P

                Mar 16 QP  4 P 

                Apr 10 QP 3 P

                May 8 QP 9 P

                Jun 10 QP 3 P

                Jul 11 QP 9 P

                Aug 11 QP 6 P

                Sep12 QP 2 P

                Oct 10 QP 16 P

                Nov 7 QP 5 P

                Dec 9 QP 11 P

                Gives us a total of

                 131 QP  74 P

                205 winners, 131QP/205= 63.9% QPs

                74/205 = 36.09% P

                I'd say from this that QP hit more often and are more likely to be a solo hit.

                Player selected numbers are more likely to be split jackpots. especially of all the numbers are relatively low.  

                I'd also say the person that hit for $1,150,000 on a Pick 5 on 9-11-07 with a QP was one lucky "son of a gun"!

                Any other conclusions? 

                Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                Lep

                There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                  Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                  Zeta Reticuli Star System
                  United States
                  Member #30470
                  January 17, 2006
                  10391 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: January 3, 2008, 12:31 am - IP Logged

                  PS

                  I'm going to open a Illinois Little Lotto Jackpots 2008 thread in Pick 5 and track at least the first 90 (leap year) days of the year and comapre that to the first 89 days of 2007 

                  Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                  Lep

                  There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                    justxploring's avatar - villiarna
                    Wandering Aimlessly
                    United States
                    Member #25360
                    November 5, 2005
                    4461 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: January 11, 2008, 7:07 pm - IP Logged

                    Coin Toss a couple of the recent draws had 3 consecutive numbers.  Nobody won when the number was 17-20-21-22-32 but 6 people hit 3-13-24-25-26  6 is a big different and the payout isn't very good (although I wouldn't complain) but if just one person had chosen the earlier combination, he/she would have won $290K. 

                    I really don't think you are going to find a pattern or a reason for so many winners or quick picks, except more people buy quick picks.  Last night 6 people won with 6 quick picks.  The other night, 4 people won and nobody bought a quick pick.  Nobody hit 6-13-21-25-29 either.  They could be birthdays, right?  (family of 5, day of the month...that's what I have - just not these numbers!) 

                      justxploring's avatar - villiarna
                      Wandering Aimlessly
                      United States
                      Member #25360
                      November 5, 2005
                      4461 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: January 12, 2008, 3:58 pm - IP Logged

                      Okay - here's a question.  Maybe Todd has specific information, but are the results that are displayed the next morning with the location manually entered or does a computer list them?  The reason for this curiosity is that many times 5 or 6 winners used their own numbers, not a QP as you suggest is more common.  I mentioned this before, but look at last night's game (I won't list the stores to save space)

                      Five players matched all five winning numbers in the Friday drawing and will share a $263,629.55 top prize.

                      The winners will each receive $52,725.91.

                      The winning numbers were:

                      04 - 16 - 18 - 23 - 24

                      If you go to the FL site and check the news, not one of these players bought a QP.   

                      Now - look at another jackpot for $900,000 for FL MM which is a 4/44 and a MB 1/22 

                      One player hit the jackpot of $900,000 which is either a 20 year annuity or about 65% payout (it varies)   NOT a quick pick! 

                      Sat, Jan 5 Lotto hit by one winner for $3 million  - NOT a quick pick.

                      Looks as if more non-QP tickets win.  If 75% or better are sold, it indicates that they are no more of an advantage than playing personal numbers.

                        Avatar
                        Kentucky
                        United States
                        Member #32652
                        February 14, 2006
                        7343 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: January 12, 2008, 5:44 pm - IP Logged

                        Okay - here's a question.  Maybe Todd has specific information, but are the results that are displayed the next morning with the location manually entered or does a computer list them?  The reason for this curiosity is that many times 5 or 6 winners used their own numbers, not a QP as you suggest is more common.  I mentioned this before, but look at last night's game (I won't list the stores to save space)

                        Five players matched all five winning numbers in the Friday drawing and will share a $263,629.55 top prize.

                        The winners will each receive $52,725.91.

                        The winning numbers were:

                        04 - 16 - 18 - 23 - 24

                        If you go to the FL site and check the news, not one of these players bought a QP.   

                        Now - look at another jackpot for $900,000 for FL MM which is a 4/44 and a MB 1/22 

                        One player hit the jackpot of $900,000 which is either a 20 year annuity or about 65% payout (it varies)   NOT a quick pick! 

                        Sat, Jan 5 Lotto hit by one winner for $3 million  - NOT a quick pick.

                        Looks as if more non-QP tickets win.  If 75% or better are sold, it indicates that they are no more of an advantage than playing personal numbers.

                        "Looks as if more non-QP tickets win.  If 75% or better are sold, it indicates that they are no more of an advantage than playing personal numbers."

                        It's possible there are more picked combinations than 25% or as you have already noted, when the highest number is under 32, it's likely there will be more picked combination winners. The Fantasy 5 gives a free QP for matching 2 out of 5 numbers so even the people playing their own numbers will have QPs and that will inflates the QP percentage.

                        It would be interesting to know how many matching 5 number combos they sell out of the total number of QPs sold. I think it's much more likely that 5 people picking their own numbers would match all 5 numbers than 5 people buying matching QPs.