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I'll never win any Jackpot

Topic closed. 91 replies. Last post 9 years ago by Hans.

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United States
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March 30, 2005
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Posted: March 28, 2008, 2:18 pm - IP Logged

I am glad to see some of you coming to your senses.

I keep proposing we share ideas and numbers and see if we can beat the odds.

Yet some people here are more concerned about sharing the jackpot.

We can keeping posting 12 numbers in the challenges but I don't get any satisfaction from the end result.

I share some of my ideas and code too, on the math and p5 forums, as do a few others...

There is more signal and less noise on those forums, IMO ... but I guess it depends on what you're looking for.

In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

    guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

    United States
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    1969 Posts
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    Posted: March 29, 2008, 1:32 am - IP Logged

    And yet people win it 'only playing this game 2 or 3 times before', and some in their 20's have won it.

    Maybe when you get older in life you have nothing else to live for, so why the heck not (play the game) ?   (LOL) 

      guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

      United States
      Member #41383
      June 16, 2006
      1969 Posts
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      Posted: March 29, 2008, 1:43 am - IP Logged

      Speaking of why certain numbers are picked to play, I've looked at past winning numbers and separated them into different categories that one might use to pick them to play and seldom will more than two or three winning numbers be in any one category that include less than a third of all the numbers in the game.  When ever all the winning numbers have been in the same category, that category have included a third or more of all the numbers in the game.   

      The participants in the Maddogg challenges are trying to do that with twelve numbers but three winning numbers seems to be their limit, occasionally some one will pick four winning numbers but it doesn't happen often.  When one person start picking three or more winning numbers regularly in that challenge, they will be on to something.

      That's obvious to me as well, but it appears you and I are studying (some of) the same things...

      As I keep saying you can make all the educated guesses you want, it still takes a lot of luck, but the important thing is: you have to know how to try and get 'better' luck of the odds in your favor.  There are things you just 'notice' when you are looking at things, but as I've said a million times, there isn't a whole lotta difference between 1 in 146 mill and 1 in one mill.......... let alone 3 out of 12....... 

      And since you brought up Big Dog's Challenge, it SHOULD be obvious to anyone that has played it for any length of time: the folks that participate in it are using all the knowledge and skill they have - they pick their BEST TWELVE numbers based on their own hard work, and once in a blue moon someone gets 3x12.   That SHOULD tell folks something, but if they can't see it, I'm not going to tell them. 

        LottoL's avatar - techno eye.jpg
        Texas
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        Posted: March 29, 2008, 2:51 am - IP Logged

        That's obvious to me as well, but it appears you and I are studying (some of) the same things...

        As I keep saying you can make all the educated guesses you want, it still takes a lot of luck, but the important thing is: you have to know how to try and get 'better' luck of the odds in your favor.  There are things you just 'notice' when you are looking at things, but as I've said a million times, there isn't a whole lotta difference between 1 in 146 mill and 1 in one mill.......... let alone 3 out of 12....... 

        And since you brought up Big Dog's Challenge, it SHOULD be obvious to anyone that has played it for any length of time: the folks that participate in it are using all the knowledge and skill they have - they pick their BEST TWELVE numbers based on their own hard work, and once in a blue moon someone gets 3x12.   That SHOULD tell folks something, but if they can't see it, I'm not going to tell them. 

        ============================================================================================

        If Big Dog's Challenge were increased to 20 numbers, I wonder what the results would be?

        I would venture a guess that you would see quite a few 5 for 5 hits each time as there
        are some very good number predictors within that group.  It seems to me when you start
        reducing from 20 numbers, it gets extremely difficult to predict on a consistent basis;
        consequently, in my opinion that is why you generally see three hits, inclusive with the MB.

        Just my three cents worth,

        Best Of Luck,

        LottoL

          four4me's avatar - gate1
          MD
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          Posted: March 29, 2008, 3:11 am - IP Logged

          Picking 20 numbers for the challenge is almost half the selections so there might be better results. However it still boils down to selecting the right digits. 

          The thing is wheeling 12 numbers cost less than wheeling 20 numbers. It doesn't mater much if in your wheel you don't have the winning digits.

            LottoL's avatar - techno eye.jpg
            Texas
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            Posted: March 29, 2008, 3:42 am - IP Logged

            Picking 20 numbers for the challenge is almost half the selections so there might be better results. However it still boils down to selecting the right digits. 

            The thing is wheeling 12 numbers cost less than wheeling 20 numbers. It doesn't mater much if in your wheel you don't have the winning digits.

            I Agree!

             

            I was just pointing out that if you gave (xsmega, fja, konane, gamegrl, maddog10, rjoh, jadelottery, raven62, litebets27, tweetietoo, magma, geos*5666) twenty numbers to select from, you would probably have someone hit 5 for 5 on a relatively consistent basis.  If you were to put these predictors in a think tank room to get their best number for a given draw, I would venture a guess that you would have at least 3 out of 5 correct numbers on every draw.

            Best Of Luck,

            LottoL

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              Posted: March 29, 2008, 6:29 am - IP Logged

              I am glad to see some of you coming to your senses.

              I keep proposing we share ideas and numbers and see if we can beat the odds.

              Yet some people here are more concerned about sharing the jackpot.

              We can keeping posting 12 numbers in the challenges but I don't get any satisfaction from the end result.

              I didn't mean to say that the challenges are bad.

              It is a major part of my equation. I use anything that gives me advantage.

              I just think it might be worth trying other strategies. It is for our own entertainment afterall.

              When we started this challenges which is going on 3 years, we used to highlight or likely picks which slowly disappeared out of the challenges.

              Now like they topic states, if we are not worried about other people using our numbers,

              if we realize what the odd of over 1: 140,000,000, we should worry less about the jackpot.

              All I am proposing is synergy.

              A game could trying to come up with as minimum numbers as possible. You get a point for each correct number and lose one for each wrong number. We can keep track of how players are doing.

              It will be a discussion thread.

              You could help others win or help yourself win.

                fja's avatar - gnome1

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                Posted: March 29, 2008, 8:49 am - IP Logged

                I Agree!

                 

                I was just pointing out that if you gave (xsmega, fja, konane, gamegrl, maddog10, rjoh, jadelottery, raven62, litebets27, tweetietoo, magma, geos*5666) twenty numbers to select from, you would probably have someone hit 5 for 5 on a relatively consistent basis.  If you were to put these predictors in a think tank room to get their best number for a given draw, I would venture a guess that you would have at least 3 out of 5 correct numbers on every draw.

                Best Of Luck,

                LottoL

                 

                DEC29-30total draws208draws left  0MMPBTotal
                name0+11+12+13+03+14+04+15+05+1HitsHitsHits
                Xsmega3146273611352661
                Anonymous7713162202646
                fja41151831162642
                just6ntlc27417351202141
                Magma211131192039
                littlemanjen111111191736
                Lottomike3351627112334
                Maddog107971323131629
                Litebets2757415311920
                Raven6241171211819
                Konane118224112618
                Rjoh543151101717
                TheGameGrl421111112416
                Bitrunner2437218513
                bellyache124516713
                Tony222212216713
                jadelottery12121121012
                loves2lotto117411
                masslottery1099
                bigtobey1448
                Ayenowitall41282538
                Weshar754521808
                Sirbrad13151246
                sirmetro11141606
                tweetietoo131066
                LottoL1121066
                Padawanlotto111505
                Todd11505
                geos*5666337055
                Themaker224415
                Pidwilli4134
                Editgap123303
                guesser113033
                sfilippo3312213
                angelm1212303
                luckygrl2112123
                Love20052202
                likwdy22112
                Delores2472112
                Fxsterling111202
                krb03111202
                Jag331111112
                Tnnplayer80511202
                needbucks11112
                atl111202
                BaristaExpress1112
                Butters1112
                nonphotoblue1011
                scorpionprince1101
                emilyg1101
                lottolaughs1011
                Mrmelvin281101
                Letswin32101
                Shay11101
                rip snorter11011
                CalifDude1101
                ladygirl991011
                nywilliams1101
                Bambini11101
                leto1101
                joshuacloak1101
                skylaquisha1011
                countingman1011
                bbjbb1101
                atlasshrugged1011
                Scorpio1011
                Thinreality1011
                Total winners70116832663342710294324618
                MM winners32514112519223102940
                PB winners38654214114204000324

                 

                 

                The above 2006 results were based on a 15 wb & 5 bb scenario,,,utilitizing a 2 man team concept the following 5+1 hits were made in 2006

                 

                `  Totalavgavg  avg  avg
                xx  5+1BB  WB  5+0  5+1
                2 man team combined  hitsusedused  combos  combos
                xsmega-tony2222  21025  59,315  593,145
                lottomike-konane  2102670,392703,920
                xsmega-fja  2102785,943859,425
                just6ntic-fja  2102898,280982,800
                xsmega - weshar75  162333,649201,894
                xsmega-magma  172333,649235,543
                magma-bellyache  162442,504255,024
                just6ntlc-rjoh  1102333,649336,490
                lottomike-fja  1102333,649336,490
                just6ntlc-ayenoitall  192442,504382,536
                xsmega-konane  192442,504382,536
                magma-thegamegrl  162665,780394,680
                fja-magma  182553,130425,040
                just6ntlc-bitrunner  1102442,504425,040
                lottomike-ayenoitall  1102442,504425,040
                maddog10-thegamegrl  1102442,504425,040
                xsmega-sirmetro  1102442,504425,040
                Raven62-Krb03  182553,130425,040
                lottomike-ripsnorter  182665,780526,240
                lottomike-rjoh  1102553,130531,300
                xsmega-littlemanjen  1102553,130531,300
                just6ntic-litebets  1102553,130531,300
                litebets-bitrunner  1102553,130531,300
                maddog10-jadelottery  1102553,130531,300
                maddog10-litebets27  192665,780592,020
                konane-just6ntic  192665,780592,020
                just6ntic-littlemanjen  1102665,780657,800
                just6ntic-xsmega  1102665,780657,800
                littlemanjen-thegamegrl  1102665,780657,800
                xsmega-anonymous  1102665,780657,800
                bellyache-just6ntic  1102665,780657,800
                maddog10-just6ntic  1102665,780657,800
                jadelottery-geos*5666  1102665,780657,800
                litebets-konane  192780,730726,570
                lottol-bellyache  1102780,730807,300
                maddog10-konane  1102780,730807,300
                maddog10-rjoh  1102780,730807,300
                xsmega-rjoh  1102780,730807,300
                maddog10-sirmetro  1102780,730807,300
                litebets-thegamegrl  1102780,730807,300
                bitrunner-ayenowitall  1102780,730807,300
                xsmega - litebets  1102780,730807,300
                litebets-fja  192898,280884,520
                just6ntic-luckygrl21  1102898,280982,800
                Maddog10-Raven62  1929118,7551,068,795
                xsmega-ayenoitall  1830142,5061,140,048
                bitrunner-fja  11029118,7551,187,550
                konane-sirbrad  11029118,7551,187,550
                konane-Pidwilli  11030  142,506  1,425,060
                Totals  535001378  3,752,692  35,714,811
                Average    9.426.0  70,806  673,864

                 

                I could not tell you how many 5+0 there might have been:  What you will notice is that there weren't that many consistant 2 man hits.....It was a crap shoot as to which 2 people would combine for a hit....but out of 208 draws (MM & PB) we nailed it 53 times....

                 

                2  man team  5+1  5+1  5+1   
                individual  MM  PB  Total
                xsmega  9  5  14
                just6ntlc  3  912
                maddog10  7  18
                konane  6  28
                fja  1  78
                litebets27  2  57
                lottomike  4  26
                magma  2  24
                rjoh  2  24
                ayenoitall  0  44
                thegamegrl  2  24
                bitrunner  0  44
                bellyache  2  13
                littlemanjen  0  33
                sirmetro  2  02
                tony2222  2  02
                Raven62  2  02
                jadelottery  1  12
                anonymous  1  01
                lottol  1  01
                luckygrl21  0  11
                ripsnorter  1  01
                Krb03  1  01
                sirbrad101
                Geos*5666101
                Pidwilli011
                weshar75101
                total  54  52  106

                "Everybody has to believe in something...I believe I'll have another beer!"   = W.C.Fields                      

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
                  United States
                  Member #9
                  March 24, 2001
                  19826 Posts
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                  Posted: March 29, 2008, 11:38 am - IP Logged

                  ============================================================================================

                  If Big Dog's Challenge were increased to 20 numbers, I wonder what the results would be?

                  I would venture a guess that you would see quite a few 5 for 5 hits each time as there
                  are some very good number predictors within that group.  It seems to me when you start
                  reducing from 20 numbers, it gets extremely difficult to predict on a consistent basis;
                  consequently, in my opinion that is why you generally see three hits, inclusive with the MB.

                  Just my three cents worth,

                  Best Of Luck,

                  LottoL

                  According to my Keno calculator these are the odds.

                   MATCH  COMBOS OF 12 FOR 5of56 NUMBERS           ODDS
                     5     115775100                               1 : 4823
                     4     3183815250                              1 : 175
                     3     30423123500                             1 : 18
                     2     127777118700                            1 : 4
                     1     238130084850                            1 : 2


                   MATCH  COMBOS OF 20 FOR 5of56 NUMBERS           ODDS
                     5     3188675231420                           1 : 246
                     4     35872596353475                          1 : 22
                     3     147710690867250                         1 : 5
                     2     279009082749250                         1 : 3
                     1     242297361334874                         1 : 3

                  They look to be in line with what is actually happening.

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

                    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                    mid-Ohio
                    United States
                    Member #9
                    March 24, 2001
                    19826 Posts
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                    Posted: March 29, 2008, 1:35 pm - IP Logged

                    According to my Keno calculator these are the odds.

                     MATCH  COMBOS OF 12 FOR 5of56 NUMBERS           ODDS
                       5     115775100                               1 : 4823
                       4     3183815250                              1 : 175
                       3     30423123500                             1 : 18
                       2     127777118700                            1 : 4
                       1     238130084850                            1 : 2


                     MATCH  COMBOS OF 20 FOR 5of56 NUMBERS           ODDS
                       5     3188675231420                           1 : 246
                       4     35872596353475                          1 : 22
                       3     147710690867250                         1 : 5
                       2     279009082749250                         1 : 3
                       1     242297361334874                         1 : 3

                    They look to be in line with what is actually happening.

                    I forgot to include the odds of matching nothing in the above post.

                    C(56,12) = 558383307300

                     MATCH  COMBOS OF 12 FOR 5of56 NUMBERS           ODDS
                       5     115775100                               1 : 4823
                       4     3183815250                              1 : 175
                       3     30423123500                             1 : 18
                       2     127777118700                            1 : 4
                       1     238130084850                            1 : 2
                       0     158753389900                            1 : 4


                    C(56,15) = 16253249498640

                     MATCH  COMBOS OF 15 FOR 5of56 NUMBERS           ODDS
                       5     12777711870                             1 : 1272
                       4     238130084850                            1 : 68
                       3     1587533899000                           1 : 10
                       2     4762601697000                           1 : 3
                       1     6463530874500                           1 : 3
                       0     3188675231420                           1 : 5

                    C(56,20) = 785613562163430

                     MATCH  COMBOS OF 20 FOR 5of56 NUMBERS           ODDS
                       5     3188675231420                           1 : 246
                       4     35872596353475                          1 : 22
                       3     147710690867250                         1 : 5
                       2     279009082749250                         1 : 3
                       1     242297361334874                         1 : 3
                       0     77535155627159                          1 : 10

                     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                       
                                 Evil Looking       

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                      mid-Ohio
                      United States
                      Member #9
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                      Posted: March 29, 2008, 4:35 pm - IP Logged

                      Picking 20 numbers for the challenge is almost half the selections so there might be better results. However it still boils down to selecting the right digits. 

                      The thing is wheeling 12 numbers cost less than wheeling 20 numbers. It doesn't mater much if in your wheel you don't have the winning digits.

                      The problem is wheeling 12 numbers with odds of *1:4823 of having all 5 winning numbers is not always better than wheeling 20 numbers with odds of *1:246 of having all 5 winning numbers.  When gambling, both risk and cost has to be evaluated in your strategy.  For example, a full wheel of 12 numbers have 792 lines but an abbreviated wheel of 792 lines of 20 numbers is likely to have more combinations that win a prize.  Both would cost the same but one is likely to win more than the other and this probably is true even when smaller abbreviated wheels are used in both cases.

                      *calculation from earlier post.

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking       

                        benmas's avatar - waveform
                        Rhode Island
                        United States
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                        October 28, 2007
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                        Posted: March 29, 2008, 4:56 pm - IP Logged

                        in my opinion the primary reason that the MAddog challenge winners get only 2+0 or 3s is that people dont take enough chances....they try to cover the whole field by posting 12#s smth like say for example: 2 6 10 17 23 25 30 36 44 49 50 55...since only 5 numbers will be drawn they cannot come from the six 10s categories (0s,10s,20s,30s,40s,50s) (a post like that example has two numbers in every tens therefore two of them numbers are automatically wrong since the beginning)...numbers are not that spread out but are more concentrated in groups...then you get a drawing like the big pot had: 6 22 42 43 47 (three numbers from 40s) and also 7 25 28 46 48 (two in 20s two in 40s)....better to take a major guess and say this time the numbers will be concentrated in 10s or 30s and play them with an oddball in the 0s or smth similar...covering the whole spectrum to me indicates that one is not really sure but wants to sort of cover all bases as not to lose...fear of losing is what loses....take more chances...its a challenge not any money lost

                          Avatar
                          Kentucky
                          United States
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                          February 14, 2006
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                          Posted: March 29, 2008, 5:59 pm - IP Logged

                          in my opinion the primary reason that the MAddog challenge winners get only 2+0 or 3s is that people dont take enough chances....they try to cover the whole field by posting 12#s smth like say for example: 2 6 10 17 23 25 30 36 44 49 50 55...since only 5 numbers will be drawn they cannot come from the six 10s categories (0s,10s,20s,30s,40s,50s) (a post like that example has two numbers in every tens therefore two of them numbers are automatically wrong since the beginning)...numbers are not that spread out but are more concentrated in groups...then you get a drawing like the big pot had: 6 22 42 43 47 (three numbers from 40s) and also 7 25 28 46 48 (two in 20s two in 40s)....better to take a major guess and say this time the numbers will be concentrated in 10s or 30s and play them with an oddball in the 0s or smth similar...covering the whole spectrum to me indicates that one is not really sure but wants to sort of cover all bases as not to lose...fear of losing is what loses....take more chances...its a challenge not any money lost

                          At best, picking 12 numbers that have 4 or 5 of the drawn numbers out of 39 is very difficult so consistently picking 2 or 3 out of 55 and 56 numbers is really pretty good. You're right about the six decades distribution but that's a different playing strategy and might be next to impossible when you can only choose 12 numbers.

                          If the challenges asked for 20 numbers, there would be more winners, but a 3if4 of 20 number wheel cost around $70 compared to $12 for the same 12 number wheel and 4if5 wheels are $433 and $35. Since the challenges are for every game, the cost of actually playing has to be considered. Can you imagine picking 5 + 1 and not being able to play it because of the cost?

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                            mid-Ohio
                            United States
                            Member #9
                            March 24, 2001
                            19826 Posts
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                            Posted: March 29, 2008, 8:48 pm - IP Logged

                            in my opinion the primary reason that the MAddog challenge winners get only 2+0 or 3s is that people dont take enough chances....they try to cover the whole field by posting 12#s smth like say for example: 2 6 10 17 23 25 30 36 44 49 50 55...since only 5 numbers will be drawn they cannot come from the six 10s categories (0s,10s,20s,30s,40s,50s) (a post like that example has two numbers in every tens therefore two of them numbers are automatically wrong since the beginning)...numbers are not that spread out but are more concentrated in groups...then you get a drawing like the big pot had: 6 22 42 43 47 (three numbers from 40s) and also 7 25 28 46 48 (two in 20s two in 40s)....better to take a major guess and say this time the numbers will be concentrated in 10s or 30s and play them with an oddball in the 0s or smth similar...covering the whole spectrum to me indicates that one is not really sure but wants to sort of cover all bases as not to lose...fear of losing is what loses....take more chances...its a challenge not any money lost

                            That's not the answer either because in the 289 drawings since the last MM matrix change, there has only been two occasions when more than three numbers were in same decade.

                            04/06/07 - 24 32 34 36 39 +06
                            08/22/06 - 03 04 05 07 36 +16

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       

                              psykomo's avatar - animal shark.jpg

                              United States
                              Member #4877
                              May 30, 2004
                              5120 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: March 29, 2008, 9:12 pm - IP Logged

                              in my opinion the primary reason that the MAddog challenge winners get only 2+0 or 3s is that people dont take enough chances....they try to cover the whole field by posting 12#s smth like say for example: 2 6 10 17 23 25 30 36 44 49 50 55...since only 5 numbers will be drawn they cannot come from the six 10s categories (0s,10s,20s,30s,40s,50s) (a post like that example has two numbers in every tens therefore two of them numbers are automatically wrong since the beginning)...numbers are not that spread out but are more concentrated in groups...then you get a drawing like the big pot had: 6 22 42 43 47 (three numbers from 40s) and also 7 25 28 46 48 (two in 20s two in 40s)....better to take a major guess and say this time the numbers will be concentrated in 10s or 30s and play them with an oddball in the 0s or smth similar...covering the whole spectrum to me indicates that one is not really sure but wants to sort of cover all bases as not to lose...fear of losing is what loses....take more chances...its a challenge not any money lost

                              bemas>>>>>>>>>>>>bemas????????????

                              what don't U understand about the word challenge ????

                              PSYKO ask U to limit UR number's to 10 or LESS if UR G@@D^^^^

                              OTHERWISE<<<<<<UR<<<<<<<<G@ING<<<<<TOO<<<<LO$$!

                              bemas>>pick-up UR money & get-back on the TURNIP TRUCK!

                              thank's too Maddog for D w@rk'$$s

                              even a psyko tries to stay outta UR>>

                              way>>>>>cause U-ALL too TOUGH'fff

                              Thank's for UR CHALLENGE^^^^^^

                              LOL

                              PSYKOMO