|Posted: August 26, 2008, 5:13 pm - IP Logged|
I disagree, the 8.3% chance will only apply when you're certain that there'll be no repeats.
But how will you know that? By tracking doubles? Surely you could find better ways of profitting from that!
Having a 6% random chance in all 100 drawings is the same as having 8.3% in the around 72 of those 100 drawings that will have no matching digits. By boxing 5 different digits in every drawing, it's a given you can't win all the next 100 drawings so the only necessary percentage is how many of the around 72 drawings you need to win to show a profit and that number is 13.
There are many methods for choosing which 5 digits and while unlikely, it's possible to match 3 of the 5 every time 3 different digits are drawn. By using a progressive betting method it's possible to show a nice profit by winning less than 13 times out of 100 drawings too.
"Surely you could find better ways of profitting from that!"
Most pick-3 boxes pay $83 or $80 for a $1 bet so playing 10 different boxes reduces the win expectation to about 8 to 1 on each bet whether the wager is $1 or $60 on each box. To show a profit you need to win once out of every 7 times if you make the same bet each time. If Shawn can continue to win 3 out of every 9 drawings it will be a very nice profit.
There might be better ways of getting a larger profit by using another method but that's a different topic.