Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited January 18, 2017, 9:18 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Complete Systems Failure (predictions)

Topic closed. 25 replies. Last post 8 years ago by BobP.

Page 1 of 2
PrintE-mailLink
Avatar

United States
Member #24439
October 22, 2005
638 Posts
Offline
Posted: August 17, 2008, 2:31 pm - IP Logged

Don't you hate complete systems failure while you are making your powerball/megamillions predictions?

My preditions system on powerball is not doing so well as of recent.

The only advantage to a total system failure is you find newer ways to improve your system.

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
    United States
    Member #9
    March 24, 2001
    19898 Posts
    Online
    Posted: August 17, 2008, 2:57 pm - IP Logged

    With any prediction system you has to have realistic expectations.  Most lotteries expect less than 4% of the tickets sold will have a combination that wins anything so if you're picking less than 20 combinations with your system you should expect  all losers occasionally even when the system is working.

    Check the prediction statistics for the top predictors, their hit percentages aren't that high.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

      time*treat's avatar - radar

      United States
      Member #13130
      March 30, 2005
      2171 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: August 17, 2008, 3:57 pm - IP Logged

      Don't you hate complete systems failure while you are making your powerball/megamillions predictions?

      My preditions system on powerball is not doing so well as of recent.

      The only advantage to a total system failure is you find newer ways to improve your system.

      If I could come up with a method that would give me all of the combinations that were going to lose, I could work with that. Wink

      In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
      Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
        United States
        Member #9
        March 24, 2001
        19898 Posts
        Online
        Posted: August 17, 2008, 4:44 pm - IP Logged

        If I could come up with a method that would give me all of the combinations that were going to lose, I could work with that. Wink

        In a game like MegaMillions with 175,711,536 possible combinations, only 4,405,086 or 2.5% of those combinations are going to have a chance to win anything each drawing.  That means there are 171,306,450 combinations that are losers every drawing.  Wouldn't it be easier to try and pick some of those winning combinations than it would be to eliminate all of those losing combinations? Wink

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

          BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
          Dump Water Florida
          United States
          Member #380
          June 5, 2002
          3112 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: August 17, 2008, 6:14 pm - IP Logged

          When you play a game like MegaMillions you need to stop paying the lottery big money for worthless prizes.   

          Make up unique sets of numbers in 2's and 3's (pairs and triples) no repeating numbers and play them off against each other to make 5 number combinations.

          Not only is this method cheaper then wheeling, it has real world first prize potential.  First prize is guaranteed when one correct pair and one correct triple combine. 

          Think about it.   

          BobP

           

            TigerAngel's avatar - tiger andfairy.jpg
            california
            United States
            Member #23475
            October 13, 2005
            659 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: August 17, 2008, 6:44 pm - IP Logged

            Wow, that sounds "outa sight" Bob! Thanks for posting it. Just the other day I was vaguely thinking of 8-23. So it showed up. So I think I will try your idea and use my pairs with trip sets. Kuuuul. .

            p.s. I didn't make it in time for your most gracious discount on your ebook but will pick it up soon anyway.

            Banana

            Blue Angel  "if you can hold it in your mind, you can hold it in your hand"

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
              United States
              Member #9
              March 24, 2001
              19898 Posts
              Online
              Posted: August 17, 2008, 7:10 pm - IP Logged

              When you play a game like MegaMillions you need to stop paying the lottery big money for worthless prizes.   
              I Agree! The problem is I never know that's what I've done that until after the drawing.

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       


                United States
                Member #62164
                June 19, 2008
                1217 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: August 17, 2008, 7:40 pm - IP Logged

                Wouldnt it be safe to eliminate all numbers previously drawn - I know this is only a small fraction of possible outcomes but for people who play quick picks - get the quick picks off this site and make sure you arent getting something that has been drawn again.  I did this last night and got lucky and had 4/5

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
                  United States
                  Member #9
                  March 24, 2001
                  19898 Posts
                  Online
                  Posted: August 17, 2008, 10:25 pm - IP Logged

                  You can't safely eliminate any number or combination but you can gamble based on what has happened in the past and that would be a good gamble.  When ever you play the MegaMillions lottery, you're gambling.

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

                    BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
                    Dump Water Florida
                    United States
                    Member #380
                    June 5, 2002
                    3112 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: August 18, 2008, 12:33 am - IP Logged

                    Wouldnt it be safe to eliminate all numbers previously drawn - I know this is only a small fraction of possible outcomes but for people who play quick picks - get the quick picks off this site and make sure you arent getting something that has been drawn again.  I did this last night and got lucky and had 4/5

                    For big Pick-5 games it is safe to eliminate past winning 5 number combinations from your plays and pretty safe to eliminate the 4-number sets of those 5 number wins, but you cannot discard the 2 and 3-number sets as those are drawn again and again.   

                    The smaller the game the more you get repeats of previous sub-combinations. 

                    The Florida Fantasy 5/26 repeated all 5-numbers many times, though not in the next draw.  For the first couple of years players could win jackpots simply by playing all the previously drawn winning combinations.

                    Google, "The Birthday Paradox" to understand how this stuff works.

                    BobP

                       

                      time*treat's avatar - radar

                      United States
                      Member #13130
                      March 30, 2005
                      2171 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: August 18, 2008, 2:10 am - IP Logged

                      In a game like MegaMillions with 175,711,536 possible combinations, only 4,405,086 or 2.5% of those combinations are going to have a chance to win anything each drawing.  That means there are 171,306,450 combinations that are losers every drawing.  Wouldn't it be easier to try and pick some of those winning combinations than it would be to eliminate all of those losing combinations? Wink

                      Ah, that would be the "Complete Systems Success". It's still a work in progress.

                      In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                      Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

                        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                        mid-Ohio
                        United States
                        Member #9
                        March 24, 2001
                        19898 Posts
                        Online
                        Posted: August 18, 2008, 11:45 am - IP Logged

                        For big Pick-5 games it is safe to eliminate past winning 5 number combinations from your plays and pretty safe to eliminate the 4-number sets of those 5 number wins, but you cannot discard the 2 and 3-number sets as those are drawn again and again.   

                        The smaller the game the more you get repeats of previous sub-combinations. 

                        The Florida Fantasy 5/26 repeated all 5-numbers many times, though not in the next draw.  For the first couple of years players could win jackpots simply by playing all the previously drawn winning combinations.

                        Google, "The Birthday Paradox" to understand how this stuff works.

                        BobP

                           

                        The "Birthday Paradox" works because there are only 365 possible outcomes.  Lotteries with only a few possible out comes adjust their payouts such that you can't take advantage of the paradox.  For example there are only 220 possible box hits in a pick-3 game including triples and doubles and playing them all will guarantee you a hit but the payout will only be 50% of what you spent.

                         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                           
                                     Evil Looking       

                          BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
                          Dump Water Florida
                          United States
                          Member #380
                          June 5, 2002
                          3112 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: August 18, 2008, 2:23 pm - IP Logged

                          The "Birthday Paradox" works because there are only 365 possible outcomes.  Lotteries with only a few possible out comes adjust their payouts such that you can't take advantage of the paradox.  For example there are only 220 possible box hits in a pick-3 game including triples and doubles and playing them all will guarantee you a hit but the payout will only be 50% of what you spent.


                          The Birthday Paradox tells us the odds are 50/50 of a boxed match in any random set of 15 past drawn Pick-3 numbers you happen to look at.  There is nothing about having to play all 220 boxed combinations nor does the payout affect the outcome, that's a side issue.

                          When a Pick-5/26 game has only 65,780 combinations there is a point where the paradox kicks in and there is a good chance of two combinations matching.  The fact this did happen multiple times certainly suggests the paradox is in play.  According to the FL5/26 file I still have in GH over 2240 draws 46 winning 5-number combinations appeared twice. 

                          In larger games requiring a much larger pool over a longer period of time the paradox still applies to sub-combinational matches of lower tier prize wins. 

                          BobP


                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                            mid-Ohio
                            United States
                            Member #9
                            March 24, 2001
                            19898 Posts
                            Online
                            Posted: August 18, 2008, 3:08 pm - IP Logged

                            The Birthday Paradox tells us the odds are 50/50 of a boxed match in any random set of 15 past drawn Pick-3 numbers you happen to look at.

                            I've only played the pick-3 game a few times but if the odds of getting a box hit are 50/50 when playing the previous 15 drawings then I may start playing it more.

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       

                              bennybaku's avatar - cat anm.gif
                              New Member
                              fort collins colorado
                              United States
                              Member #62733
                              July 7, 2008
                              2 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: August 18, 2008, 3:12 pm - IP Logged

                              Bob, You are very helpful, and by the way I did download your book, it is very helpful.  However I have a question as to your post, I am fairly new to the lottery system so forgive me if this is a dumb question, Could you clarify sets of numbers in 2's and 3's?  And how would I play them off each other to make five number combo's?

                              Thanks so much