Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 9, 2016, 12:16 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Complete Systems Failure (predictions)

Topic closed. 25 replies. Last post 8 years ago by BobP.

Page 2 of 2
PrintE-mailLink
Avatar

United States
Member #24439
October 22, 2005
638 Posts
Offline
Posted: August 19, 2008, 1:06 am - IP Logged

For big Pick-5 games it is safe to eliminate past winning 5 number combinations from your plays and pretty safe to eliminate the 4-number sets of those 5 number wins, but you cannot discard the 2 and 3-number sets as those are drawn again and again.   

The smaller the game the more you get repeats of previous sub-combinations. 

The Florida Fantasy 5/26 repeated all 5-numbers many times, though not in the next draw.  For the first couple of years players could win jackpots simply by playing all the previously drawn winning combinations.

Google, "The Birthday Paradox" to understand how this stuff works.

BobP

   

That is a good point but I don't bother eliminating all those combinations because the odds of my combination matching all 5 of the early combinations is as good as matching the 5 white balls that will be drawn.

If a had a program that can eliminate the 5 and 4 set, I would definitely use it.

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
    United States
    Member #9
    March 24, 2001
    19830 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: August 19, 2008, 2:23 am - IP Logged

    .....the odds of my combination matching all 5 of the early combinations is as good as matching the 5 white balls that will be drawn.

    I use to think that too until I added a feature to my RNG that not only rejects combinations that have matched 4-6 numbers of previous winning combinations but beeps and high light such combinations.  When you limit your picks to the most popular parameters of previous winning combinations that is more likely to happen.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

      BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
      Dump Water Florida
      United States
      Member #380
      June 5, 2002
      3104 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: August 19, 2008, 2:32 am - IP Logged

      The Birthday Paradox tells us the odds are 50/50 of a boxed match in any random set of 15 past drawn Pick-3 numbers you happen to look at.

      I've only played the pick-3 game a few times but if the odds of getting a box hit are 50/50 when playing the previous 15 drawings then I may start playing it more.

      Oh man RJOh I wish it worked that way. 

      Let's say you made a template, (cut a hole in a piece of paper the size of a column of 15 Pick-3 draws) and flipped to any page of your game's draw history and slapped it down.  Half of the time, 50/50 you would find two of the same number boxed among the 15.

      If on the other hand you began sliding the template up the page adding a draw and losing a draw at a time, it simple doesn't work.  Same as if you found no one of the 23 people in the room with the same birthday and assumed that meant the next person to enter the room would be a match, the probability of that person's birthday matching someone's in the room is 1 in 253. 

      The paradox is interesting, not predictive.  BobP

       

       

        BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
        Dump Water Florida
        United States
        Member #380
        June 5, 2002
        3104 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: August 19, 2008, 2:42 am - IP Logged

        Bob, You are very helpful, and by the way I did download your book, it is very helpful.  However I have a question as to your post, I am fairly new to the lottery system so forgive me if this is a dumb question, Could you clarify sets of numbers in 2's and 3's?  And how would I play them off each other to make five number combo's?

        Thanks so much

        Ok, Pick-5 we want to play 15 numbers.  6 Groups 3 of 3 and 3 of 2, play them against each other.  (Remember these are pointers, use your best picks your research indicates will hit together to replace my numbers.)

        01-02-03   04-05
        06-07-08   09-10
        11-12-13   14-15
        Makes . . .
        01-02-03-04-05
        01-02-03-09-10
        01-02-03-14-15
        06-07-08-04-05
        06-07-08-09-10
        06-07-08-14-15
        11-12-13-04-05
        11-12-13-09-10
        11-12-13-14-15

        You can have more 3's or more 2's or the same number of each it doesn't matter so long as you play them off against each other.  Get any group of 3's and 2's correct and you have an instant jackpot.   

        BobP

          Avatar

          United States
          Member #24439
          October 22, 2005
          638 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: August 19, 2008, 7:29 am - IP Logged

          I don't understand much about the paradox but I build on my best pick. If I find a pair on numbers, I will build the rest of my combinations from them.

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
            United States
            Member #9
            March 24, 2001
            19830 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: August 19, 2008, 2:49 pm - IP Logged

            Every one who pick their own combinations have a theory about the best way to do it.  Trying to understand the logic of them all is just confusing.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

              Avatar
              Kentucky
              United States
              Member #32652
              February 14, 2006
              7314 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: August 19, 2008, 4:34 pm - IP Logged

              When you play a game like MegaMillions you need to stop paying the lottery big money for worthless prizes.   

              Make up unique sets of numbers in 2's and 3's (pairs and triples) no repeating numbers and play them off against each other to make 5 number combinations.

              Not only is this method cheaper then wheeling, it has real world first prize potential.  First prize is guaranteed when one correct pair and one correct triple combine. 

              Think about it.   

              BobP

               

              A coworker used a variation of this strategy playing one set of 3s with three sets of 2s and only a $3 bet in 5/37 pick-5 game. He played pet numbers and explained it after showing me his ticket that matched 2 numbers from the set of 3s with one of the sets of 2s for a 4 out of 5 win with two 2 out of 5 wins. I was skeptical about playing the same set of pet numbers in every drawing until he matched all 5 numbers and won $102,000 a few months later.

              For a $10 bet we can combine two sets of 3s with fives sets of 2s using 16 numbers and use 10 different mega ball numbers. Choosing the correct numbers is always the problem but there is a better win potential when matching 3 or 4 of the numbers compared to the amount of the wager.


                Canada
                Member #51923
                May 1, 2007
                7 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: August 20, 2008, 1:22 am - IP Logged

                When you play a game like MegaMillions you need to stop paying the lottery big money for worthless prizes.   

                Make up unique sets of numbers in 2's and 3's (pairs and triples) no repeating numbers and play them off against each other to make 5 number combinations.

                Not only is this method cheaper then wheeling, it has real world first prize potential.  First prize is guaranteed when one correct pair and one correct triple combine. 

                Think about it.   

                BobP

                 

                Hi BobP, That sounds like a Serotic wheel to meSmile...pairs, triplets, and their not cheap to play.

                  BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
                  Dump Water Florida
                  United States
                  Member #380
                  June 5, 2002
                  3104 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: August 20, 2008, 2:35 am - IP Logged

                  Hi BobP, That sounds like a Serotic wheel to meSmile...pairs, triplets, and their not cheap to play.

                  Is that you Bernard?

                  In the Giant Systems section Robert Serotic does make systems that combine pairs with a rotation of numbers from a secondary group taking the remaining three places in the Pick-5 combinations.

                  Because he does not form the numbers from the secondary group into three number sets as I do, but instead makes a 3if3 wheel out of them to play against each pair in turn, his wheels are much more expensive to play.  His 13 number wheel System 191 needs 119 combinations where as the wheel I posted had 15 numbers in only 9 lines.  That's cheap for any Pick-5 wheel that has a 5 number win shot.

                  A Pick-3 wheel for 7 digits takes 35 numbers or lines to cover so Serotic could have made his wheel in 105 lines, but he threw in an insurance play for another 14 lines in case the win came strictly from the pairs alone.

                  I didn't invent the 3x3 triple wheel and neither did Robert Serotic as I've seen them hidden inside much older wheels after I figured it out on my own and looked to see who else was including a jackpot shot within their 4if6 wheels.  This kind of wheeling is almost a lost art.  I believe I am the first to point out you can play the triples as an independent jackpot shot outside the larger 4if6 wheel.
                   
                  The 3x2 method for Pick-5, far as I know, I was the first to come up with it.
                  BobP


                    Canada
                    Member #51923
                    May 1, 2007
                    7 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: August 20, 2008, 3:21 am - IP Logged

                    Yep, thats me. Thanks for detailed explanation. You would know better than me as I don't have his books anymore and miss them. Whats the title of the most thorough Serotic book he wrote so I can look it up new or used online somewhere?

                      BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
                      Dump Water Florida
                      United States
                      Member #380
                      June 5, 2002
                      3104 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: August 20, 2008, 2:11 pm - IP Logged

                      Yep, thats me. Thanks for detailed explanation. You would know better than me as I don't have his books anymore and miss them. Whats the title of the most thorough Serotic book he wrote so I can look it up new or used online somewhere?


                      The most famous one is "The Only Way to Win at LOTTO" by Robert Serotic
                      ISBN 0-941271-06-4
                      UPC 0 13567 01495 3

                      This one is usually available through amazon, ebay and the Lotto Masta guy from down under.

                      Then there is a 3 book set . . .
                      Lotto: How to Play and Win
                      1. Introduction to Systems and Strategies
                      2. For Advanced Players
                      3. For Experts

                      There is,  LOTTO Pick-5 How to Play and Win (no pairs and triples ;-)

                      There is a book called LOTTO PLANNER outdated book describing what states have lottery games, their sizes, etc.

                      He used to sell packages of Wheels he called Jackpot Traps, about a dozen wheels with some stats from Versa Bet from why back when. 

                      There are two books listed in the back of some of his books that never made it into print.  500+1 Lotto Wheeling Systems and Lotto Winning Strategies.  I even tried the Library of Congress for a reprint copy, no good.

                      Do not get tricked into buying Lotto: How to Play and Win Introduction to Systems and Strategies often sold simply as Lotto: How to Play and Win when what you really want is The Only Way To Win At LOTTO which should sell for $9.99 to $19.99, there are a few crooks trying to sell it for as much as $69.99 to $129.99 don't get taken there are plenty of copies around at the lower price range.

                      BobP