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What hit rate percentage does your system have?

Topic closed. 19 replies. Last post 8 years ago by garyo1954.

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What hit rate percentage does a system have to have to be considered worth playing

10% [ 11 ]  [20.75%]
25% [ 5 ]  [9.43%]
40% [ 4 ]  [7.55%]
50% [ 6 ]  [11.32%]
65% [ 9 ]  [16.98%]
80% [ 18 ]  [33.96%]
Total Valid Votes [ 53 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 9 ]  
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August 31, 2008
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Posted: September 27, 2008, 4:11 pm - IP Logged

I'm trying to tweak my system but I don't know what hit rate would be acceptable to settle for.

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
    United States
    Member #9
    March 24, 2001
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    Posted: September 27, 2008, 5:22 pm - IP Logged

    It all depends on the number of lines played and the game played.  Most pick5 games are designed to give up a winning ticket (matching 2of5) every 10 lines or so which usually pays $1 or a free ticket, so a 10% hit percentage is within the normal odds of winning something regardless of how the combinations are picked. 

    For system players, any system that's within his budget that improves his overall odds of winning is worth trying.  Such system may exist but no one is coming forward and proving it.  The problem with systems I've read about is they create the illusion of winning more by requiring players to spend more to win more while not changing their overall odds of winning.

    Buying one ticket will get you in a game and if the overall odds of winning something are 1:10 then buying 10 tickets will likely get you a minimum win and buying 100 tickets might get you ten minimum wins and no system is needed to do that.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       


      United States
      Member #17555
      June 22, 2005
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      Posted: September 28, 2008, 12:34 am - IP Logged

      I picked 10 percent. 

      There was a horse racing system I bought that showed the reader NOT how to grow rich over night, but a long term, 5 year retirement plan. He had a system that guaranteed a win, 80 percent of the time, at only a 10 percent gain each time, but compounded.

      Now, if we could only do the same with the lottery.

      10 percent might not seem a lot at first, but patience and self control will pay off in the long run.

      Over the years, I've seen so many folks come on here looking for a magic bullet to solve their overnight desire to become rich. I was one of those folks, I know. There is none. Only hard work, dedication and patience will produce a realistic future of financial freedom. 

       

       

                                                                                                                            Cheers 

       

        BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
        Dump Water Florida
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        June 5, 2002
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        Posted: September 28, 2008, 1:14 am - IP Logged



        For Pick-3/4 it has to play at a profit because there is nothing else to look forward to.

        For Pick-5/6/7  lower tier prize wins don't really matter except to lower the overall playing cost while we wait to win the big one.   Winning 3 and 4 number prizes are not an indicator we're on the path to a jackpot.

        BobP

          rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
          Texas
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          October 23, 2007
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          Posted: September 28, 2008, 9:26 am - IP Logged

          What's a hit rate percentage??????

          Mine is so low it can be measured! LOL

            diamondpalace's avatar - Untitled 2.jpg
            Dallas, TX
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            Member #60284
            April 12, 2008
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            Posted: September 29, 2008, 2:30 am - IP Logged

            Well, I am testing my system at the moment. Pick 4 games. Right now it is at 44.65% hit rate.

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              Kentucky
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              February 14, 2006
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              Posted: September 29, 2008, 7:48 pm - IP Logged

              Well, I am testing my system at the moment. Pick 4 games. Right now it is at 44.65% hit rate.

              Hit ratios (on the LP predictions) are determined by dividing the number of hits by the number of bets and creates a "hit percentages". A hit ratio of 44.65% would mean you have 4465 winning tickets out of every 10,000 tickets you play. The lowest payoff on a $1 bet in pick-4 games is $200 on a box bet. Base on "hit ratio" your system is getting back at the least $893,000 for every $10,000 you wager. A 1% hit ratio in pick-4 games means you're getting back at least $200 for every $100 you bet.

              How do you define "hit rate"?

                Stew12's avatar - bad egg-64x64.png
                CT
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                May 21, 2008
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                Posted: September 29, 2008, 9:41 pm - IP Logged

                My CT Cash 5 system has been the most beneficial of my systems over the past few months.  According to the stats page it has a 96.77% prize ratio, with a 3.23% hit ratio.  I'm very happy with that.

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
                  United States
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                  Posted: September 30, 2008, 9:44 am - IP Logged

                  Hit ratios (on the LP predictions) are determined by dividing the number of hits by the number of bets and creates a "hit percentages". A hit ratio of 44.65% would mean you have 4465 winning tickets out of every 10,000 tickets you play. The lowest payoff on a $1 bet in pick-4 games is $200 on a box bet. Base on "hit ratio" your system is getting back at the least $893,000 for every $10,000 you wager. A 1% hit ratio in pick-4 games means you're getting back at least $200 for every $100 you bet.

                  How do you define "hit rate"?

                  diamondpalace: Statistics Summary

                  Summary

                   Statistic  Current Month  Last Month  Current Year  Last Year  Lifetime 
                  Picks33,1431033,369033,369
                  Hits85086086
                      Hit Ratio0.26%0.00%0.26%0.00%0.26%
                  Winnings$14,800$0$14,840$0$14,840
                      Prize Ratio44.65%0.00%44.47%0.00%44.47%

                   Stack, are you figuring the stats the same way as LP?

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

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                    Honduras
                    Member #20982
                    August 29, 2005
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                    Posted: September 30, 2008, 9:54 am - IP Logged

                    As low percentage hit rate you system have be proud of it because remember if it wasn't for pre-test, your system percentage might have been higher...

                    The Forex trades: 1.6 Trillion dollars EVERY day, that´s more than the GDP of the Carribbean Central America, COMBINED. Enough to feed every crook out there for centuries...To all Geniuses & Powers Countries of the World the Planet needs breakthroughs in all Medicine, Veterinary, Biology related fields, Psychology, Population Psychology/Sociology..They need to genetically ingeneer new plants species/types to give more variety of plants and thus have more resources for combating diseases¨


                     


                     


                     

                     


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                      Honduras
                      Member #20982
                      August 29, 2005
                      4715 Posts
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                      Posted: September 30, 2008, 10:06 am - IP Logged



                      For Pick-3/4 it has to play at a profit because there is nothing else to look forward to.

                      For Pick-5/6/7  lower tier prize wins don't really matter except to lower the overall playing cost while we wait to win the big one.   Winning 3 and 4 number prizes are not an indicator we're on the path to a jackpot.

                      BobP

                      i remember reading a system by an australian man, who won the Australian lotto 2 times or 3 i can't remember...And he was basically saying that with the right wheels you had a better chance at hitting the big jackpot by playing and trying to hit multiples lower tier prizes....

                      i found them with these books: <snip> Edited - don't post spam

                      The Forex trades: 1.6 Trillion dollars EVERY day, that´s more than the GDP of the Carribbean Central America, COMBINED. Enough to feed every crook out there for centuries...To all Geniuses & Powers Countries of the World the Planet needs breakthroughs in all Medicine, Veterinary, Biology related fields, Psychology, Population Psychology/Sociology..They need to genetically ingeneer new plants species/types to give more variety of plants and thus have more resources for combating diseases¨


                       


                       


                       

                       


                        diamondpalace's avatar - Untitled 2.jpg
                        Dallas, TX
                        United States
                        Member #60284
                        April 12, 2008
                        3856 Posts
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                        Posted: September 30, 2008, 11:30 am - IP Logged

                        Hit ratios (on the LP predictions) are determined by dividing the number of hits by the number of bets and creates a "hit percentages". A hit ratio of 44.65% would mean you have 4465 winning tickets out of every 10,000 tickets you play. The lowest payoff on a $1 bet in pick-4 games is $200 on a box bet. Base on "hit ratio" your system is getting back at the least $893,000 for every $10,000 you wager. A 1% hit ratio in pick-4 games means you're getting back at least $200 for every $100 you bet.

                        How do you define "hit rate"?

                        Oops, I ment prize ratio. The hit percentage as you can see is very very low.

                          diamondpalace's avatar - Untitled 2.jpg
                          Dallas, TX
                          United States
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                          April 12, 2008
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                          Posted: September 30, 2008, 11:33 am - IP Logged

                          Yes, it is actually higher, not much I would say. With the pre-tests I can only test 1 system at a time, with 50 numbers limit. Currently I am using and testing other's systems as well.

                            Avatar
                            Kentucky
                            United States
                            Member #32652
                            February 14, 2006
                            7310 Posts
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                            Posted: September 30, 2008, 4:12 pm - IP Logged

                            diamondpalace: Statistics Summary

                            Summary

                             Statistic  Current Month  Last Month  Current Year  Last Year  Lifetime 
                            Picks33,1431033,369033,369
                            Hits85086086
                                Hit Ratio0.26%0.00%0.26%0.00%0.26%
                            Winnings$14,800$0$14,840$0$14,840
                                Prize Ratio44.65%0.00%44.47%0.00%44.47%

                             Stack, are you figuring the stats the same way as LP?

                            RJ, when I first saw the 44% I thought maybe he did mean hit ratio because the poll is about "hit rate percentage" until I did the math. By playing $1 boxes on non-matching combinations in a pick-4 game, a 44% hit ratio would give you a $8700 profit on every $100 bet.

                            In Pick-3 and pick-4 games half the digits are odd and half the digits are even and expected results  based on probability is that in 100 drawings, the first digit should be odd about 50 times and the even about 50 times. The games only payout 50 cents on the dollar so it's like a coin flip where you call "heads" and win back your dollar when it's heads and lose the dollar when it's "tails". After 100 coin flips where it was "heads" 50 times and "tails" 50 times, you would have bet $100 and won back $50 for a 50% prize ratio.

                            A 75% prize ratio means the predictor is much better than probability but it would still be a loss because of the payoffs and a pick-3 predictor with a hit ration of over 1.25% is making a profit. In 5/39 games that pay $1 for matching 2 numbers, the overall odds of winning any prize is 1 in 9 or a "probable" 11.1% hit ratio. If my Rolling Cash 5 system had a real money hit ratio of 12%, I would probably be losing money and if your Pick-3 system had "only" a 4% hit ratio, you would be laughing all the way to the bank.

                            Not all lotteries payout for matching 2 numbers so for statistical purposes, LP's hit and prize ratio doesn't recognize it so it's a fair comparison for all pick-5 games. There are many other variables when comparing systems for all lottery games and simply asking "what's your hit ratio" doesn't really reflect how good or bad a system is doing. 

                            The same is true with prize ratio because if I wager $10 a drawing for the next 100 drawings in Rolling Cash 5 and my system had a 90% hit ratio, it would mean it cost me $100 or $1 a drawing to have 1000 chances to win at least $100,000 and I would call that excellent.

                              time*treat's avatar - radar

                              United States
                              Member #13130
                              March 30, 2005
                              2171 Posts
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                              Posted: October 1, 2008, 7:33 am - IP Logged

                              i remember reading a system by an australian man, who won the Australian lotto 2 times or 3 i can't remember...And he was basically saying that with the right wheels you had a better chance at hitting the big jackpot by playing and trying to hit multiples lower tier prizes....

                              i found them with these books: <snip> Edited - don't post spam

                              I'm going to check this link periodically and see if the "price good only until" date changes. Roll Eyes

                              In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                              Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.