What hit rate percentage does your system have?Prev Topic Next Topic

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What hit rate percentage does a system have to have to be considered worth playing

10%

[ 11 ]

[ 20.8% ]

25%

[ 5 ]

[ 9.4% ]

40%

[ 4 ]

[ 7.6% ]

50%

[ 6 ]

[ 11.3% ]

65%

[ 9 ]

[ 17.0% ]

80%

[ 18 ]

[ 34.0% ]

Total valid votes

[ 53 ]

Discarded votes

[ 9 ]

mprober

United States
Member #64,560
August 31, 2008
48 Posts
Offline

Sep 27, 2008, 4:11 pm

I'm trying to tweak my system but I don't know what hit rate would be acceptable to settle for.
RJOh

100

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
Offline

Sep 27, 2008, 5:22 pm

It all depends on the number of lines played and the game played. Most pick5 games are designed to give up a winning ticket (matching 2of5) every 10 lines or so which usually pays $1 or a free ticket, so a 10% hit percentage is within the normal odds of winning something regardless of how the combinations are picked.

For system players, any system that's within his budget that improves his overall odds of winning is worth trying. Such system may exist but no one is coming forward and proving it. The problem with systems I've read about is they create the illusion of winning more by requiring players to spend more to win more while not changing their overall odds of winning.

Buying one ticket will get you in a game and if the overall odds of winning something are 1:10 then buying 10 tickets will likely get you a minimum win and buying 100 tickets might get you ten minimum wins and no system is needed to do that.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
pacattack05

United States
Member #17,554
June 22, 2005
5,582 Posts
Offline

Sep 28, 2008, 12:34 am

I picked 10 percent.

There was a horse racing system I bought that showed the reader NOT how to grow rich over night, but a long term, 5 year retirement plan. He had a system that guaranteed a win, 80 percent of the time, at only a 10 percent gain each time, but compounded.

Now, if we could only do the same with the lottery.

10 percent might not seem a lot at first, but patience and self control will pay off in the long run.

Over the years, I've seen so many folks come on here looking for a magic bullet to solve their overnight desire to become rich. I was one of those folks, I know. There is none. Only hard work, dedication and patience will produce a realistic future of financial freedom.
BobP

Dump Water Florida
United States
Member #380
June 5, 2002
3,574 Posts
Offline

Sep 28, 2008, 1:14 am

For Pick-3/4 it has to play at a profit because there is nothing else to look forward to.

For Pick-5/6/7 lower tier prize wins don't really matter except to lower the overall playing cost while we wait to win the big one. Winning 3 and 4 number prizes are not an indicator we're on the path to a jackpot.

BobP
rcbbuckeye

100

Texas
United States
Member #55,887
October 23, 2007
17,726 Posts
Offline

Sep 28, 2008, 9:26 am

What's a hit rate percentage??????

Mine is so low it can be measured! LOL
diamondpalace

United States
Member #60,282
April 12, 2008
3,857 Posts
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Sep 29, 2008, 2:30 am

Well, I am testing my system at the moment. Pick 4 games. Right now it is at 44.65% hit rate.
Stack47

Kentucky
United States
Member #32,651
February 14, 2006
10,301 Posts
Offline

Sep 29, 2008, 7:48 pm

Quote: Originally posted by diamondpalace on Sep 29, 2008
Well, I am testing my system at the moment. Pick 4 games. Right now it is at 44.65% hit rate.

Hit ratios (on the LP predictions) are determined by dividing the number of hits by the number of bets and creates a "hit percentages". A hit ratio of 44.65% would mean you have 4465 winning tickets out of every 10,000 tickets you play. The lowest payoff on a $1 bet in pick-4 games is $200 on a box bet. Base on "hit ratio" your system is getting back at the least $893,000 for every $10,000 you wager. A 1% hit ratio in pick-4 games means you're getting back at least $200 for every $100 you bet.

How do you define "hit rate"?
Stew12

CT
United States
Member #61,396
May 21, 2008
781 Posts
Offline

Sep 29, 2008, 9:41 pm

My CT Cash 5 system has been the most beneficial of my systems over the past few months. According to the stats page it has a 96.77% prize ratio, with a 3.23% hit ratio. I'm very happy with that.

RJOh

100

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
Offline

Sep 30, 2008, 9:44 am

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Sep 29, 2008

Hit ratios (on the LP predictions) are determined by dividing the number of hits by the number of bets and creates a "hit percentages". A hit ratio of 44.65% would mean you have 4465 winning tickets out of every 10,000 tickets you play. The lowest payoff on a $1 bet in pick-4 games is $200 on a box bet. Base on "hit ratio" your system is getting back at the least $893,000 for every $10,000 you wager. A 1% hit ratio in pick-4 games means you're getting back at least $200 for every $100 you bet.

How do you define "hit rate"?

diamondpalace: Statistics Summary

Summary

Statistic	Current Month	Last Month	Current Year	Last Year	Lifetime
Picks	33,143	10	33,369	0	33,369
Hits	85	0	86	0	86
Hit Ratio	0.26%	0.00%	0.26%	0.00%	0.26%
Winnings	$14,800	$0	$14,840	$0	$14,840
Prize Ratio	44.65%	0.00%	44.47%	0.00%	44.47%

Stack, are you figuring the stats the same way as LP?

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *

pumpi76

Honduras
Member #20,981
August 29, 2005
4,715 Posts
Offline

Sep 30, 2008, 9:54 am

As low percentage hit rate you system have be proud of it because remember if it wasn't for pre-test, your system percentage might have been higher...

The Forex trades: 1.6 Trillion dollars EVERY day, that´s more than the GDP of the Carribbean Central America, COMBINED. Enough to feed every crook out there for centuries...To all Geniuses & Powers Countries of the World the Planet needs breakthroughs in all Medicine, Veterinary, Biology related fields, Psychology, Population Psychology/Sociology..They need to genetically ingeneer new plants species/types to give more variety of plants and thus have more resources for combating diseases¨
pumpi76

Honduras
Member #20,981
August 29, 2005
4,715 Posts
Offline

Sep 30, 2008, 10:06 am

Quote: Originally posted by BobP on Sep 28, 2008

For Pick-3/4 it has to play at a profit because there is nothing else to look forward to.

For Pick-5/6/7 lower tier prize wins don't really matter except to lower the overall playing cost while we wait to win the big one. Winning 3 and 4 number prizes are not an indicator we're on the path to a jackpot.

BobP

i remember reading a system by an australian man, who won the Australian lotto 2 times or 3 i can't remember...And he was basically saying that with the right wheels you had a better chance at hitting the big jackpot by playing and trying to hit multiples lower tier prizes....

i found them with these books: <snip> Edited - don't post spam

The Forex trades: 1.6 Trillion dollars EVERY day, that´s more than the GDP of the Carribbean Central America, COMBINED. Enough to feed every crook out there for centuries...To all Geniuses & Powers Countries of the World the Planet needs breakthroughs in all Medicine, Veterinary, Biology related fields, Psychology, Population Psychology/Sociology..They need to genetically ingeneer new plants species/types to give more variety of plants and thus have more resources for combating diseases¨
diamondpalace

United States
Member #60,282
April 12, 2008
3,857 Posts
Offline

Sep 30, 2008, 11:30 am

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Sep 29, 2008
Hit ratios (on the LP predictions) are determined by dividing the number of hits by the number of bets and creates a "hit percentages". A hit ratio of 44.65% would mean you have 4465 winning tickets out of every 10,000 tickets you play. The lowest payoff on a $1 bet in pick-4 games is $200 on a box bet. Base on "hit ratio" your system is getting back at the least $893,000 for every $10,000 you wager. A 1% hit ratio in pick-4 games means you're getting back at least $200 for every $100 you bet.

How do you define "hit rate"?

Oops, I ment prize ratio. The hit percentage as you can see is very very low.
diamondpalace

United States
Member #60,282
April 12, 2008
3,857 Posts
Offline

Sep 30, 2008, 11:33 am

Yes, it is actually higher, not much I would say. With the pre-tests I can only test 1 system at a time, with 50 numbers limit. Currently I am using and testing other's systems as well.

Stack47

Kentucky
United States
Member #32,651
February 14, 2006
10,301 Posts
Offline

Sep 30, 2008, 4:12 pm

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Sep 30, 2008

diamondpalace: Statistics Summary

Summary

Statistic	Current Month	Last Month	Current Year	Last Year	Lifetime
Picks	33,143	10	33,369	0	33,369
Hits	85	0	86	0	86
Hit Ratio	0.26%	0.00%	0.26%	0.00%	0.26%
Winnings	$14,800	$0	$14,840	$0	$14,840
Prize Ratio	44.65%	0.00%	44.47%	0.00%	44.47%

Stack, are you figuring the stats the same way as LP?

RJ, when I first saw the 44% I thought maybe he did mean hit ratio because the poll is about "hit rate percentage" until I did the math. By playing $1 boxes on non-matching combinations in a pick-4 game, a 44% hit ratio would give you a $8700 profit on every $100 bet.

In Pick-3 and pick-4 games half the digits are odd and half the digits are even and expected results based on probability is that in 100 drawings, the first digit should be odd about 50 times and the even about 50 times. The games only payout 50 cents on the dollar so it's like a coin flip where you call "heads" and win back your dollar when it's heads and lose the dollar when it's "tails". After 100 coin flips where it was "heads" 50 times and "tails" 50 times, you would have bet $100 and won back $50 for a 50% prize ratio.

A 75% prize ratio means the predictor is much better than probability but it would still be a loss because of the payoffs and a pick-3 predictor with a hit ration of over 1.25% is making a profit. In 5/39 games that pay $1 for matching 2 numbers, the overall odds of winning any prize is 1 in 9 or a "probable" 11.1% hit ratio. If my Rolling Cash 5 system had a real money hit ratio of 12%, I would probably be losing money and if your Pick-3 system had "only" a 4% hit ratio, you would be laughing all the way to the bank.

Not all lotteries payout for matching 2 numbers so for statistical purposes, LP's hit and prize ratio doesn't recognize it so it's a fair comparison for all pick-5 games. There are many other variables when comparing systems for all lottery games and simply asking "what's your hit ratio" doesn't really reflect how good or bad a system is doing.

The same is true with prize ratio because if I wager $10 a drawing for the next 100 drawings in Rolling Cash 5 and my system had a 90% hit ratio, it would mean it cost me $100 or $1 a drawing to have 1000 chances to win at least $100,000 and I would call that excellent.

time*treat

United States
Member #13,130
March 30, 2005
2,171 Posts
Offline

Oct 1, 2008, 7:33 am

Quote: Originally posted by pumpi76 on Sep 30, 2008
i remember reading a system by an australian man, who won the Australian lotto 2 times or 3 i can't remember...And he was basically saying that with the right wheels you had a better chance at hitting the big jackpot by playing and trying to hit multiples lower tier prizes....

i found them with these books: <snip> Edited - don't post spam

I'm going to check this link periodically and see if the "price good only until" date changes.

In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

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What hit rate percentage does your system have?Prev Topic Next Topic