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Countdown to Powerball in Florida

Topic closed. 39 replies. Last post 8 years ago by RJOh.

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In Florida Powerball starts Jan 4th Draws Jan 7th

Can't wait to play [ 6 ]  [11.54%]
Couldn't care less [ 7 ]  [13.46%]
Will ruin Florida 6/53 Lotto [ 4 ]  [7.69%]
Will bring joy to lottery players [ 6 ]  [11.54%]
Ho Ho Hum Bug [ 1 ]  [1.92%]
If only they hadn't raised the matrix [ 13 ]  [25.00%]
I'll play and I'll win you'll see [ 7 ]  [13.46%]
I'll only play when the prize is huge [ 2 ]  [3.85%]
I've been waiting for PB for years [ 2 ]  [3.85%]
Rather it was Mega Millions [ 4 ]  [7.69%]
Total Valid Votes [ 52 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 2 ]  
Avatar
NY
United States
Member #23835
October 16, 2005
3502 Posts
Offline
Posted: December 17, 2008, 1:40 am - IP Logged

Now I'm confused.  I thought the $1 million for the second prize was a lump sum and it wasn't split.  Is this the way it is with Powerball?   I never realized 2nd prizes were split.   AFAIK if you get 5 white balls you automatically win a million bucks (less tax)

BTW, expect a few people to win in FL because of the population.   I'm expecting some people to post "conspiracy theory" type comments when this happens, but FL is the 4th most populous state next to CA, TX and NY.  During the busy season, the population in some areas doubles.   So it won't surprise me to see a couple of million dollar winners in FL, especially from January-March. 

The lotteries always have the ability to protect their own interests. Normally, only the jackpot is paid as a parimutuel prize (with CA being the exception, due to state law), and the vast majority of the time a 5+0 win will get you the fixed prize. OTOH, on those rare occasions where there are an unusually high number of winners, the lottery has the option to pay prizes as parimutuel prizes.   AKAIK, that has never happened with PB or MM, and it probably hasn't happened with any game with odds that allow the 2nd place prize to be 50K or larger. The fortune cookie PB a couple of years ago resulted in (off the top of my head) 111 or 121 2nd place winners, or which  perhaps 15 or 20% had the powerplay option. MUSL could have split the actual amount in the prize pool among all of the winners, but  they chose to honor the  fixed value.

With the 2nd place prize bumped up to $1 million, I'd think it's a slam dunk that the prize will be parimutuel if we see another fortune cookie win with  perhaps 50 or more winners. On the off chance that 1,2,3,4,5 + <anything other than 6> hits it will definitely be a parimutuel payout, and it will be fairly modest. There are probably a few other combinations, such as diagonal patterns, and 5,10,15, etc that would also result in a parimutuel payout, but there are so fw of those combinations that it's extremely unlikely that we'll see it happen.

    Avatar
    NY
    United States
    Member #23835
    October 16, 2005
    3502 Posts
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    Posted: December 17, 2008, 1:48 am - IP Logged

    I don't see why people complain about the steeper odds. The odds when PB first started were ridiculously high, and even the odds of any state game with  jackpots of $1 million or more are high enough that you don't have any real chance of winning. Even for the relatively low odds of 1 in 10 million, playing $1000 per year would mean you could only expect to win once every 10,000 years. The jackpots are going to get very big every few months, and you can take the chance or not.  My guess is that they can raise the odds a lot more before they stop people from playing enough for the bigger jackpots to reduce the lottery's income.   If anyone has forgotten, that's the purpose of a lottery: bring money into state coffers. Paying fat jackpots to winners is merely an undesirable, but necessary, cost of doing business

      BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
      Dump Water Florida
      United States
      Member #380
      June 5, 2002
      3112 Posts
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      Posted: December 18, 2008, 2:36 pm - IP Logged


      While I agree there is no point where people won't buy a chance if the prize is big enough.  I believe there is a point where people will stop trying to win with systems and strategies.  Simply too many variables to contend with.

      If everyone on Lottery Post stopped playing for a draw, would the lotteries notice?

      BobP

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
        United States
        Member #9
        March 24, 2001
        19891 Posts
        Online
        Posted: December 18, 2008, 4:25 pm - IP Logged

        The lotteries always have the ability to protect their own interests. Normally, only the jackpot is paid as a parimutuel prize (with CA being the exception, due to state law), and the vast majority of the time a 5+0 win will get you the fixed prize. OTOH, on those rare occasions where there are an unusually high number of winners, the lottery has the option to pay prizes as parimutuel prizes.   AKAIK, that has never happened with PB or MM, and it probably hasn't happened with any game with odds that allow the 2nd place prize to be 50K or larger. The fortune cookie PB a couple of years ago resulted in (off the top of my head) 111 or 121 2nd place winners, or which  perhaps 15 or 20% had the powerplay option. MUSL could have split the actual amount in the prize pool among all of the winners, but  they chose to honor the  fixed value.

        With the 2nd place prize bumped up to $1 million, I'd think it's a slam dunk that the prize will be parimutuel if we see another fortune cookie win with  perhaps 50 or more winners. On the off chance that 1,2,3,4,5 + <anything other than 6> hits it will definitely be a parimutuel payout, and it will be fairly modest. There are probably a few other combinations, such as diagonal patterns, and 5,10,15, etc that would also result in a parimutuel payout, but there are so fw of those combinations that it's extremely unlikely that we'll see it happen.

        The fortune cookie PB a couple of years ago resulted in (off the top of my head) 111 or 121 2nd place winners, or which  perhaps 15 or 20% had the powerplay option. MUSL could have split the actual amount in the prize pool among all of the winners, but  they chose to honor the  fixed value.

        My understanding of both the PowerBall and MegaMillions games is that states are responsible for all prizes except the jackpot of which each participating state contribute 32% of their sale receipts.  MUSL is not responsible for 5+0 wins and lower prizes, each state has their own scheme to handle having more winners than they planned for.

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

          Avatar
          NY
          United States
          Member #23835
          October 16, 2005
          3502 Posts
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          Posted: December 19, 2008, 2:49 am - IP Logged

          "If everyone on Lottery Post stopped playing for a draw, would the lotteries notice?"

          Not a chance. Even with a minimum jackpot, sales generally start at about 13 million tickets or so. Even if all of the regular posters and 20 times as many lurkers stopped playing completely it wouldn't reduce sales by 1%.

          "My understanding of both the PowerBall and MegaMillions games is that states are responsible for all prizes except the jackpot"

          That is how it works, but there are definitely special rules for special circumstances. They have a reserve fund (which I believe is funded with 2% of sales), which at the time had $25 million. I'm just guessing, but I expect that the prizes beyond what was statisticaly expected were paid from that fund. If sales in a state indicated that they should expect 1.4 winners, and they had 5, they would have then gotten 3.6 X 250k from the fund. Powerplay would have been accounted for in a similar fashion. My recollection is that there was a report that it was a decision by MUSL to honor the full payout, and I'm sure the rules would require the states to follow the decision.

            ThatScaryChick's avatar - x1MqPuM
            Idaho
            United States
            Member #56506
            November 21, 2007
            6537 Posts
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            Posted: December 19, 2008, 2:46 pm - IP Logged


            While I agree there is no point where people won't buy a chance if the prize is big enough.  I believe there is a point where people will stop trying to win with systems and strategies.  Simply too many variables to contend with.

            If everyone on Lottery Post stopped playing for a draw, would the lotteries notice?

            BobP

            Sadly, I'm guessing no. There are a lot more people who play the lottery then visit here and I think that the matrix change will lead to bigger jackpots which in turn, will lead to more people playing, which will give the powers to be more money to line their pockets.

            I wonder though. If Powerball really does start getting much bigger jackpots, how long will it be before Mega Millions decides to change their matrix?

            "No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to the top."

              YeeHaw's avatar - Lottery-041.jpg
              New Member
              California
              United States
              Member #43591
              July 22, 2006
              9 Posts
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              Posted: December 23, 2008, 10:40 pm - IP Logged

              Now I'm confused.  I thought the $1 million for the second prize was a lump sum and it wasn't split.  Is this the way it is with Powerball?   I never realized 2nd prizes were split.   AFAIK if you get 5 white balls you automatically win a million bucks (less tax)

              BTW, expect a few people to win in FL because of the population.   I'm expecting some people to post "conspiracy theory" type comments when this happens, but FL is the 4th most populous state next to CA, TX and NY.  During the busy season, the population in some areas doubles.   So it won't surprise me to see a couple of million dollar winners in FL, especially from January-March. 

                If any of you guy's have a question, they have a qreat staff to answer any powerball questions.  On the

              home page of powerball under FAQ is the email link.  They answer about 30 questions.

                 The link right near the bottom for Real Letters is funny.  It's just examples of wacky questions they have

              received.  I wish they had the same sort of thing for Mega Millions.  They just put a fun twist to the FAQ.

              And make it more player friendly if you want to ask a question

                dphillips's avatar - littleuns
                Albuquerque, New Mexico
                United States
                Member #5128
                June 18, 2004
                377 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: December 27, 2008, 12:11 pm - IP Logged

                For me, the matrix is high enough, but I do like the idea of winning all 5 numbers with a $1 million dollar payout. Presently, it is $200,000.

                Now, what would the winners of the 4 numbers with the Powerball number receive? Would that payout increase to $20,000 -- instead of the $10,000 payout.

                Finally, it seems as if 2009 is going to be an interesting year for Powerball players.

                See Ya!-- Bye, bye!  When you win, may you glow as brightly as theSun Smiley

                  justxploring's avatar - villiarna
                  Wandering Aimlessly
                  United States
                  Member #25360
                  November 5, 2005
                  4461 Posts
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                  Posted: December 28, 2008, 12:50 pm - IP Logged

                  I just picked up the pamphlet the Florida Lottery has on Powerball at the stores.   The odds are off the charts. Makes me wish I had purchased more Millionaire Raffle tickets.  I realize this has been discussed already, but seeing everything spelled out for me in a brochure about the game makes me wonder why I'd play PB instead of Lotto or FL Mega when the odds of winning even the second prize are higher than other Florida games I haven't won.  Still, if your dream is to win a huge jackpot, you probably should go for it!

                  PB Jackpot -  1: 195,249,054

                  $200,000 (or $1M with Powerplay)  -  1:5,138,133

                  $10,000  -  1:723,144

                   

                  Odds for FL Lotto Jackpot 1: 22,957,480 

                  Odds for FL MegaMoney Jackpot 1: 2,986,522

                  Odds for FL Fantasy5 Jackpot -  1:376,992

                    GamerMom's avatar - tails

                    United States
                    Member #60535
                    April 21, 2008
                    460 Posts
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                    Posted: December 28, 2008, 1:07 pm - IP Logged

                    I just picked up the pamphlet the Florida Lottery has on Powerball at the stores.   The odds are off the charts. Makes me wish I had purchased more Millionaire Raffle tickets.  I realize this has been discussed already, but seeing everything spelled out for me in a brochure about the game makes me wonder why I'd play PB instead of Lotto or FL Mega when the odds of winning even the second prize are higher than other Florida games I haven't won.  Still, if your dream is to win a huge jackpot, you probably should go for it!

                    PB Jackpot -  1: 195,249,054

                    $200,000 (or $1M with Powerplay)  -  1:5,138,133

                    $10,000  -  1:723,144

                     

                    Odds for FL Lotto Jackpot 1: 22,957,480 

                    Odds for FL MegaMoney Jackpot 1: 2,986,522

                    Odds for FL Fantasy5 Jackpot -  1:376,992

                    wow the odds for Fantasy 5 are better than most top prizes on the scratch offs! Thanks for putting that out there for me; I definitely will stick to regular FL Lotto

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                      mid-Ohio
                      United States
                      Member #9
                      March 24, 2001
                      19891 Posts
                      Online
                      Posted: December 28, 2008, 6:58 pm - IP Logged

                      I just picked up the pamphlet the Florida Lottery has on Powerball at the stores.   The odds are off the charts. Makes me wish I had purchased more Millionaire Raffle tickets.  I realize this has been discussed already, but seeing everything spelled out for me in a brochure about the game makes me wonder why I'd play PB instead of Lotto or FL Mega when the odds of winning even the second prize are higher than other Florida games I haven't won.  Still, if your dream is to win a huge jackpot, you probably should go for it!

                      PB Jackpot -  1: 195,249,054

                      $200,000 (or $1M with Powerplay)  -  1:5,138,133

                      $10,000  -  1:723,144

                       

                      Odds for FL Lotto Jackpot 1: 22,957,480 

                      Odds for FL MegaMoney Jackpot 1: 2,986,522

                      Odds for FL Fantasy5 Jackpot -  1:376,992

                      Florida Lotto - odds of winning jackpot ($3M+) 1:22,957,480
                       overall odds of winning any money 1:67.3 ($6+)

                      Mega Money - odds of winning jackpot ($500K+) 1:2,986,522
                       overall odds of winning any money 1:20.4 ($3+)

                      PowerBall - odds of winning jackpot ($20M+) 1:195,249,054
                       overall odds of winning any money 1:35.1 ($3+)

                      Winning the jackpot is almost impossible no matter which game you play but it's feeling that you can win something that keeps players coming back.  The odds of winning some money back playing PB is as good as any of the other games plus it has the largest jackpot.

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking       

                        justxploring's avatar - villiarna
                        Wandering Aimlessly
                        United States
                        Member #25360
                        November 5, 2005
                        4461 Posts
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                        Posted: December 29, 2008, 7:30 pm - IP Logged

                        WINK (our local CBS station) just announced that stores will begin selling Powerball tickets on Sunday.   It was on the 6:00 news and I just heard Lois Thome repeat it while I'm typing this post!  Guess it's big news!

                          guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

                          United States
                          Member #41383
                          June 16, 2006
                          1969 Posts
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                          Posted: December 30, 2008, 12:55 am - IP Logged

                          I hope they still use live dropped balls & don't go to RNG's.I hope the drawing is still televised here in Iowa and I hope they replace Mike Pace with someone easier on the eyes (female).

                          I believe they will have a new MC, and they are not going to RNG's. 

                          And I don't think they raised the matrix BECAUSE Florida entered it.

                            guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

                            United States
                            Member #41383
                            June 16, 2006
                            1969 Posts
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                            Posted: December 30, 2008, 1:00 am - IP Logged


                            While I agree there is no point where people won't buy a chance if the prize is big enough.  I believe there is a point where people will stop trying to win with systems and strategies.  Simply too many variables to contend with.

                            If everyone on Lottery Post stopped playing for a draw, would the lotteries notice?

                            BobP

                            Bob, I had some great theories; for awhile one hit on one number almost 100% for 6 months, then it went to 80%, then to about 40%, the problem is, that's only ONE number.   But couple that with another theory I had, that one hit 95% - and still does, but now, that's only two numbers.  And that's not good enough.

                              dphillips's avatar - littleuns
                              Albuquerque, New Mexico
                              United States
                              Member #5128
                              June 18, 2004
                              377 Posts
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                              Posted: December 30, 2008, 11:56 am - IP Logged

                              I don't want to be pessimistic and say I'll never win the jackpot, but considering the higher odds of winning it, I would be satisfied with the $1 million prize.

                              So, my lottery resolution for 2009 is to spend less money on POWERBALL, purchasing one or two tickets, instead of my five tickets (with Power PLAY), and concentrating my winning efforts toward Hot Lotto's  first prize of $1 million.

                              Finally, each player's household budget differs: some players need that major jackpot to sustain them, while others (depending upon the age factor), just need that smaller tier of $1 million to get them over the hump, assuming the players are still employed, have a pension forthcoming, some savings, and will receive Social Security benefits.

                              See Ya!-- Bye, bye!  When you win, may you glow as brightly as theSun Smiley