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Repeated winning numbers in jackpot, rare?

Topic closed. 30 replies. Last post 8 years ago by Seachelle.

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four4me's avatar - gate1
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Posted: January 25, 2009, 12:53 am - IP Logged

1. When RC5 first started, there weren't any Sunday drawings so that is the reason there has only been 1433 drawings between 10/04/04 to 01/23/09.

2. You can't play all the previous drawings for $2 after the third drawing.

3. I rechecked my calculations and I was right.  For every combinations played there is a 0-5 match and when all those matches are added up at $1 each they equal $1,026,028 for 1433 drawings.

Thank you I thought about if after i posted and realized i had no clue as to what i was doing with my calculations.

Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

               I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
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    Posted: January 25, 2009, 2:22 am - IP Logged

    I know exactly what you were doing. You sensibly decided that you should only bet on the 2 combinations that won two times. It's a great strategy, but only if you can figure out which combinations are the ones that are going to repeat.

    As far as figuring the total cost, you can do the recursive addition (0+1+2...+1431+1432)*, or you can average it out.  The average bet is 0+1432, or $716, on each of 1433 drawings.

    * There were no previous numbers for the first drawing, so your "strategy" means you wouldn't play the first drawing.

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      Posted: January 25, 2009, 2:27 am - IP Logged

      Ah, cost too much to win so little. I think with the repeated winning combo in effect for some states, it's best use would be to not include them. So instead of taking 1,433 previous drawings into consideration (knowing one of which might repeat), we can already eliminate 1,433 drawings from 575,757 combos. Not much, but does help not to spend those dollars on combos already "made it".

      How much do you suppose you would have won betting the same amount while using some other strategy? If anything, having some combinations repeat would suggest that  eliminating previous combinations means you're eliminating combinations that are more likely than others. The reality is that (assuming drawings are random and there is no significant bias) every combination has the same chance, regardless of when, or if, it was previously drawn. The only reason that repeats are generally uncomon and far apart is because there are so many other combinations that could be drawn.

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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        Posted: January 25, 2009, 1:15 pm - IP Logged

        How much do you suppose you would have won betting the same amount while using some other strategy? If anything, having some combinations repeat would suggest that  eliminating previous combinations means you're eliminating combinations that are more likely than others. The reality is that (assuming drawings are random and there is no significant bias) every combination has the same chance, regardless of when, or if, it was previously drawn. The only reason that repeats are generally uncomon and far apart is because there are so many other combinations that could be drawn.

        Since winning combinations seldom repeat, eliminating them from your picks seems to be a no-brainer.  The question is how far back do you go to eliminate combinations that missed winning by two or three numbers.  For example in the 10 most recent drawings for RC5 only three of the winning combinations had matched 4 when checked with all the previous drawings and those three matches were 1286, 813 and 1091 drawings back, so one might not only want to eliminate past winning combinations from their picks but also any combinations that matched 4 in the previous 800 drawings. 

        Even though the drawings are random and any combinations can come up at any time, when you are limited to making a few picks you should take in account what has actually happened in the past.

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

          diamondpalace's avatar - Untitled 2.jpg
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          Posted: January 25, 2009, 1:22 pm - IP Logged

          In the future when looking at cold combos, people will play them heavily. 5/39 have 575,757 combos, say 575,700 has already made it to the jackpot lounge, 57 still out there. I think by then, those who look at the lotto will know the system will complete itself eventually, and needs 57 more combos to do so. Those 57 will be good to look at. Yes, every combination have the same drawing, but when you look at the overall scheme 57 combos left are now the focal point to one's jackpot desire.


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            Posted: January 25, 2009, 1:24 pm - IP Logged

            The Florida 5/26 game had so many repeat combinations good money could be made simply playing all the previous drawn combinations for each draw.

            If you have the GH software and the full FL 5/26 data base, try running the 9. chart.  I think you will be surprised how many times this game repeated winning 5 number combinations.

            BobP

            Yes my friend 5 seems to be the limit out of a set it seem to give off 1 ball  so it shows a repeat of numbers and then it may show you 3 and so on until 5 are released and then it will start all over again, only it will select out of a winning line another number and so the system continues in the same old mixed up way. If there is a repeat of a previous winning line then it would pay everyone to stand still and do the bet for life as you probably have as much luck hitting the jackpot. but I don't think that is the case only an opinion as I have not checked anything for years.

            Good luck everyone.

            Bill....

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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              Posted: January 26, 2009, 3:11 pm - IP Logged

              West Virgina Cash25 (6/25) has 25 numbers which makes it more likely to have winning numbers repeat.  Its jackpots are $25,000 and had one played all past winning numbers up to last Friday, they would have spent $3,812,941 and won $1,982,553 which includes 16 jackpot.
               
              Had one played the previous 10 drawings for 2752 of the 2762 drawings, they would have spent $27,520 and won $13,928.  They would not have won a jackpot but they would have matched 5of6 28 times.

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       

                psykomo's avatar - animal shark.jpg

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                Posted: January 26, 2009, 4:36 pm - IP Logged

                West Virgina Cash25 (6/25) has 25 numbers which makes it more likely to have winning numbers repeat.  Its jackpots are $25,000 and had one played all past winning numbers up to last Friday, they would have spent $3,812,941 and won $1,982,553 which includes 16 jackpot.
                 
                Had one played the previous 10 drawings for 2752 of the 2762 drawings, they would have spent $27,520 and won $13,928.  They would not have won a jackpot but they would have matched 5of6 28 times.

                RJoh:

                ur D reason>>psyko play'$$$$$$$$$$

                >>>>>>QUICK-PICK'sss!!

                translation:

                ur stat's don't work & UR-2>

                abset's on ?????????????????

                call:

                Todd when U solve "D" JP$$

                LOL

                PSYKOMO

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                  Posted: January 26, 2009, 6:11 pm - IP Logged

                  RJoh:

                  ur D reason>>psyko play'$$$$$$$$$$

                  >>>>>>QUICK-PICK'sss!!

                  If you gamble, don't blame it on me.
                  Be a man and take responsibility for your own actions.

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

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                    Posted: January 27, 2009, 2:08 am - IP Logged

                    Since winning combinations seldom repeat, eliminating them from your picks seems to be a no-brainer.  The question is how far back do you go to eliminate combinations that missed winning by two or three numbers.  For example in the 10 most recent drawings for RC5 only three of the winning combinations had matched 4 when checked with all the previous drawings and those three matches were 1286, 813 and 1091 drawings back, so one might not only want to eliminate past winning combinations from their picks but also any combinations that matched 4 in the previous 800 drawings. 

                    Even though the drawings are random and any combinations can come up at any time, when you are limited to making a few picks you should take in account what has actually happened in the past.

                    Since each combinations that hasn't won is also very unlikely to be drawn, why isn't it a no-brainer to eliminate them, too? Are those previous winners unlikely to be drawn because they've won in the past, or is there some other mechanism that might be involved? Your post about WV's 6/25 could be taken as an argument against eliminating past  winners, since both examples win slightly more than 50% of what is wagered. Assuming the game pays out 50%, like the majority of jackpot games, that's  bit better than should be expected. OTOH, there could be another, more random, reason for those results.

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                      Posted: January 27, 2009, 11:11 am - IP Logged

                      Since each combinations that hasn't won is also very unlikely to be drawn, why isn't it a no-brainer to eliminate them, too? Are those previous winners unlikely to be drawn because they've won in the past, or is there some other mechanism that might be involved? Your post about WV's 6/25 could be taken as an argument against eliminating past  winners, since both examples win slightly more than 50% of what is wagered. Assuming the game pays out 50%, like the majority of jackpot games, that's  bit better than should be expected. OTOH, there could be another, more random, reason for those results.

                      In my analogy of past drawings, I have no clue why numbers and combinations behave as they do.  I just observe the way they've behaved in the past and post my observations.  I have no reason to think they will behave differently in the future.   

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking       

                        BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
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                        Posted: January 29, 2009, 2:38 am - IP Logged

                        West Virgina Cash25 (6/25) has 25 numbers which makes it more likely to have winning numbers repeat.  Its jackpots are $25,000 and had one played all past winning numbers up to last Friday, they would have spent $3,812,941 and won $1,982,553 which includes 16 jackpot.
                         
                        Had one played the previous 10 drawings for 2752 of the 2762 drawings, they would have spent $27,520 and won $13,928.  They would not have won a jackpot but they would have matched 5of6 28 times.

                        Couple of comments . . .

                        FL 5/26 is 1 in 65,780
                        WV 6/25 is 1 in 177,100

                        Odds Calculator - http://www.lotto-logix.com/wheellinks.html

                        There is a difference between starting at the beginning and stopping when the cost of playing gets too high.  Playing 2,700 combinations a day is a bit much.

                        The question with WV 6/25 is how long would someone have had to wait for a combination to repeat for a jackpot if they had started playing all past winning combinations as their plays and then how long till the second jackpot, etc?  This information could provide a working strategy if a new low odds game ever appears again.

                        We are dealing with the Law of Thirds.  At the time when the number of draws matches the number of combinations in the game we will find one third of the combinations will have been drawn once, one third of the combinations will have been drawn more than once and one third of the combinations will not have been drawn yet. 

                        We see this all the time in Pick-3 and small scale like a new 6/49 game where after 8 draws a third of the numbers have been drawn once, a third of the numbers have been drawn more than once and a third of the numbers have yet to be drawn.

                        Anyway, there is a point where we can start to expect the "more than once" to begin to appear to take up their places in the distribution.

                        BobP

                          ThatScaryChick's avatar - x1MqPuM
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                          Posted: January 29, 2009, 4:37 am - IP Logged

                          Here is a repeat combo that hit within two months of each other:

                           Draw Date  State  Game  Results 
                          Sun, Jul 9, 2006MichiganFantasy 501-05-08-17-24
                          Tue, May 30, 2006MichiganFantasy 501-05-08-17-24

                          (Found the info from this old thread.)

                          "No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to the top."


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                            Posted: February 8, 2009, 12:28 am - IP Logged

                            Hi everyone,

                            Diamond, haven't talked with you in a while.  I hope everything is gud!! I now label you as the excel guy!Big Grin  I was wondering did you make an excel sheet for this? If not could I take the same concept for the 4 of 7  for the wheeling part of the excel sheet and apply it to a larger scale like for numbers 1-41.  I hope this make sense!

                              diamondpalace's avatar - Untitled 2.jpg
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                              Posted: February 8, 2009, 1:08 am - IP Logged

                              Hi everyone,

                              Diamond, haven't talked with you in a while.  I hope everything is gud!! I now label you as the excel guy!Big Grin  I was wondering did you make an excel sheet for this? If not could I take the same concept for the 4 of 7  for the wheeling part of the excel sheet and apply it to a larger scale like for numbers 1-41.  I hope this make sense!

                              Hey Seachelle,

                              I am now the excel guy? Was trying to go for sexy guy...but I guess not.

                              No excel for this. It was just a question to see how often previous winning combinations repeat itself, or have they since the game started. Seemed like for some states there are a few repeated combinations. I usually run a quick check with my combinations with the history to make sure I don't play what's already won. Been doing that and I am amazed there were a few. Of course as the history grew this method will no longer apply.

                              No excel needed, but if you feel the need to create one feel free.