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Do you think the Mega Millions Jackpot will get much higher??

Topic closed. 19 replies. Last post 7 years ago by LottoL.

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Posted: August 20, 2009, 1:25 pm - IP Logged

It seems to me that if Powerball and MM are both large at the same time and one of them is hit then ineveitably the other gets hit in the next couple of draws..........I would like to see another   $300 + jackpot or even a record breaking $400 million plus......Anyone think there's a chance???????

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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    Posted: August 20, 2009, 1:56 pm - IP Logged

    It really doesn't matter to me because once it reaches $200M, I'm one of those millions who start playing hoping to win a piece of the jackpot. 

    With the additional players buying even more tickets, tickets sales can amount to  $80M or more which means there's a good chance that 50% of the possible combinations will be sold which also means there a 50% chance someone will win it.  It has been won many times in the past with lower ticket sales. 

    Last year when the jackpot reached $370M, ticket sales were more than $212M which meant there was a good chance of the winning combination being sold more than once which it was.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
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      four4me's avatar - gate1
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      Posted: August 20, 2009, 2:09 pm - IP Logged

      Its a 50/50 bet it will either grow or be won. No one can answer that question with any certainty.

      With the economy being what it is and millions of people playing Mega no doubt people who never bought a ticket before will by one now. Chances favor it being won soon.

      Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

                     I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
        hearsetrax's avatar - 0118

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        Posted: August 20, 2009, 3:07 pm - IP Logged

        Twitch

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          Posted: August 20, 2009, 4:48 pm - IP Logged

          <Moved to Jackpot Games forum>

          Please post in the appropriate forum ... thank you.

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            Posted: August 20, 2009, 7:25 pm - IP Logged

            Have you ever noticed that if they're both small and one rolls the other is likely to roll? It has nothing to do with what happens with the other game, and everything to do with how many tickets are sold. The lower the jackpot is the less likely that there will be a winner. The bigger it is the more likely there will be a winner, but it's almost never big enough that a winner is more likely than a roll.

            Selling 50% of the combinations, is  extremely unlikely until sales get a lot higher than 80 million tickets. Even if there wasn't a single duplicate it would still take 87.5 million before selling half of the combinations, and in the real world there are a lot of duplicates. It's not even close to a 50/50 proposition until they sell 200 million tickets. The current jackpot increase of 37 million means they're expecting to sell about 23 million tickets. Even if sales are higher than expected that still won't cover 15% of the combinations, so it's roughly an 85/15 split, or better than 5 to 1 in favor of a roll.

            Will it hit 400? There's always a chance, but who knows? A lot depends on the numbers that are drawn. Based on random probability there's far better than a 50% chance that it willl roll two more times, which should take it past 300. Breaking 400 will take 4 rolls. Chances of that are about 25 to 30% as a very rough guess.

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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              Posted: August 20, 2009, 8:58 pm - IP Logged

              Lottoreport has a chart showing tickets sales and jackpot amounts going back to 2004. Comments in my post were based on those figures.

               <snip>/mmsales.htm

              This post has been automatically changed by the Lottery Post computer system to remove inappropriate content and/or spam.

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
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                lima ohio
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                Posted: August 20, 2009, 9:26 pm - IP Logged

                DUMB QUESTION ....LP PERSON WILL WIN  IT NEXT DRAW

                  fja's avatar - gnome1

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                  Posted: August 21, 2009, 10:23 am - IP Logged
                  DateJackpotTotal SalesCaliforniaGeorgiaIllinoisMarylandMassachusettsMichiganNew JerseyNew YorkOhioTexasVirginiaWashington
                  (Millions)PopulationPopulationPopulationPopulationPopulationPopulationPopulationPopulationPopulationPopulationPopulationPopulation
                    36,756,6669,685,74412,901,5635,633,5976,497,96710,003,4228,682,66119,490,29711,485,91024,326,9747,769,0896,549,224
                  8/21/2009$207 $$$$$$$$$$$$$
                  8/18/2009$170 $52,720,367 $7,659,320 $3,546,426 $4,018,014 $2,004,456 $2,235,966 $3,802,631 $6,920,300 $10,986,876 $3,707,013 $3,795,317 $2,876,586 $1,167,462 $105,440,734
                  8/14/2009$146 $46,563,150 $6,229,175 $3,475,104 $3,569,700 $1,887,765 $1,814,444 $3,503,210 $5,866,344 $9,778,224 $3,352,405 $3,398,328 $2,669,606 $1,018,845 $93,126,300
                  8/11/2009$124 $37,864,909 $5,414,898 $2,728,226 $2,887,099 $1,538,906 $1,466,170 $2,824,513 $4,540,423 $7,829,194 $2,674,653 $2,737,330 $2,295,976 $927,521 $75,729,818
                  8/7/2009$102 $34,663,319 $4,718,848 $2,534,149 $2,643,166 $1,508,875 $1,387,587 $2,659,531 $4,041,206 $7,166,603 $2,473,451 $2,521,106 $2,183,118 $825,679 $69,326,638
                  8/4/2009$84 $26,221,413 $3,894,995 $1,957,909 $2,038,335 $1,192,858 $1,067,351 $1,910,624 $2,793,455 $5,026,748 $1,848,990 $2,031,280 $1,760,355 $698,513 $52,442,826

                   

                  Historically at a 200+ Jackpot, sales average about $160 million...If they sold the same set of numbers twice you would have approx 48% of the combinations covered.   I would venture to think that about 70-75% of the numbers will be covered today. 

                  "Everybody has to believe in something...I believe I'll have another beer!"   = W.C.Fields                      

                    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                    Posted: August 21, 2009, 10:39 am - IP Logged

                    The last time MM jackpot was $207M was on 12/12/08 which had total sales of $77,666,082 and it was won.

                     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                       
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                      fja's avatar - gnome1

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                      Posted: August 21, 2009, 12:49 pm - IP Logged

                      The last time MM jackpot was $207M was on 12/12/08 which had total sales of $77,666,082 and it was won.

                      Yeah your right,  I totally read the graph wrong...

                      everybody can disregard my comments,,,I made a big a calculation error....

                      "Everybody has to believe in something...I believe I'll have another beer!"   = W.C.Fields                      

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                        Posted: August 21, 2009, 12:56 pm - IP Logged

                        "The last time MM jackpot was $207M was on 12/12/08 which had total sales of $77,666,082"

                        It was a long, hot day yesterday, and my brain was overheated. I forgot to account for only about 1/3 of sales going to the jackpot, so the sales they're estimating should be about 3 times what I said, which puts it pretty close to an even 70 million tickets. A rollover is still the most likely result by a considerable margin.

                        " I would venture to think that about 70-75% of the numbers will be covered today. "

                        Unless sales are several times what's expected there's not a chance in the world that will happen. Every new combination that is sold increases the chances that future tickets will duplicate combinations that have already been used. Even the first million tickets sold will have some duplicates and won't use 1 million combinations. Once they sell 10% of combinations  there's 10% chance that the next ticket sold will duplicate one of the combinations that was already sold, so selling a million tickets only uses (a bit less than) 900,000 combinations. Sell 20% and 2 of the next 10 should be duplicates. Sell 30% and 3 of the next 10 should be duplicates, and so on. In the history of PB and MM there has never been a jackpot big enough to drive sales to the point where the the theoretical chance of a winner is much better than 50%.

                        Also, once a combinatioin has been usedt twice, it can stil be used a 3rd, 4th, 5th time, etc. All of the combinations that aren't used are balanced by ones that are used multiple times. The chances of a specific combination being repeated are still small, but a tiny fraction of combinations will be repeated many times.

                        That all assumes that combinations are issued randomly. For QP's that should be the case, but people choosing their own numbers are less likely to choose their combinations randomly, so that increases the  duplicates. Remember the fortune cookie PB numbers? If we ever do see 1,2,3,4,5 + 6 as the winning combination there will probably be thousands of jackpot "winners", who may collect only a few thousand bucks.

                          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                          Posted: August 21, 2009, 1:14 pm - IP Logged

                          Yeah your right,  I totally read the graph wrong...

                          everybody can disregard my comments,,,I made a big a calculation error....

                          When the MegaMillions or PowerBall jackpots reach $200M+, anything can happen.  The charts for PowerBall shows its $250M jackpot on 08/19/09 was won with only $65,842,626 in ticket sales which at best only covered 1/3 of the possible combinations.

                           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                             
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                            DC81's avatar - batman39
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                            Posted: August 21, 2009, 1:42 pm - IP Logged

                            I don't care if it hits tonight or rolls a dozen more times before doing so as long as I'm the one holding the winning ticket when it is won.

                            You can't predict random.

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                              Posted: August 21, 2009, 6:30 pm - IP Logged

                              The situation is covered by what is known as a poissan distribution, which reflects the fact that the larger the percentage of covered numbers is, the larger the probability that the next ticket purchased will match a previous one purchased.

                              Based on previous sales for this drawing, one can show that the most likely outcome is still another rollover.

                              However there is a non-zero probability of many other outcomes.

                              I follow these statistics quite regularly.   It is very rare, given the huge odds, that the probability of one or more winners exceeds zero winners.

                              But suppose this probability were constant at 90%.   The probability of there being 5 rollovers would then only be 0.9^5 or roughly 60%.

                              I have, for the record, seen improbable outcomes.   Of course one does not buy a lottery ticket at all if one expects that improbable outcomes do not occur.