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Do you think the Mega Millions Jackpot will get much higher??

Topic closed. 19 replies. Last post 7 years ago by LottoL.

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LottoL's avatar - techno eye.jpg
Texas
United States
Member #33719
February 24, 2006
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Posted: August 22, 2009, 12:58 am - IP Logged

No MegaMillion Jackpot Winners for Friday, 8/21/2009.

Next Jackpot 252 Million.

 

Best Of Luck,

LottoL

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
    United States
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    March 24, 2001
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    Posted: August 22, 2009, 11:57 am - IP Logged

    The last time MM jackpot was $207M was on 12/12/08 which had total sales of $77,666,082 and it was won.

    The above statement can be changed to:
    "The last time MM jackpot was $207M was on 08/21/09 which had total sales of ~$77,000,000 and it rolled"
    Which proves anything can happen when the jackpot is $200M+.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

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      New Jersey
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      September 4, 2005
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      Posted: August 22, 2009, 3:17 pm - IP Logged

      The above statement can be changed to:
      "The last time MM jackpot was $207M was on 08/21/09 which had total sales of ~$77,000,000 and it rolled"
      Which proves anything can happen when the jackpot is $200M+.

      The overall probability, as a Poisson distribution, for yesterday's sales, for a rollover was approximately 65%.   There was a 28% probability of one winner, a 6% chance of 2 winners, and about 0.9% chance of 3 winners.

      Yesterday's sales, by the way, established a new record for sales on a thirteenth draw.

      The largest amount of sales ever to produce a rollover in this MM matrix was 110,612,211, on March 3, 2007.   The rollover probability in that case was around 53%, slightly more probable than a winner or multiple winners.   The drawing after that produced an annuity jackpot of $370M and sales of 212,819,366, the all time record for a single draw.

      That record amount of sales produced a 30% chance of a rollover, a 36% chance of one winner, a 22% chance of 2 winners, a 9% chance of three winners, and a 3% chance of 4 winners.   There were small, non-zero, probabilities of 5 or more winners, all less than 1%.    I seem to recall that there were 4 winners for that drawing, which was improbable, but not impossible.    It would have been fun to have seen a rollover there.   I would guess the advertised annuity would have been on the order of half a billion dollars, producing hysteria.

      Although it would be in record territory for a 14th draw, my gut feeling is that the sales for this drawing will be in the neighborhood of $100-110M dollars, meaning a rollover is still slightly more probable than any number of winners.

      The most number of draws ever realized was 17, but the sales for even the 17th drawing were "only" 104.8M.

      I doubt, with sales being up since that run, the first with California in the game, that we will ever see a 17th drawing again.    It is however, not impossible, but it is improbable.

      The cash/annuity ratio is higher than its ever been, by the way, meaning that this upcoming draw is more like a $300M drawing in former times.

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        NY
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        October 16, 2005
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        Posted: August 23, 2009, 1:40 am - IP Logged

        The above statement can be changed to:
        "The last time MM jackpot was $207M was on 08/21/09 which had total sales of ~$77,000,000 and it rolled"
        Which proves anything can happen when the jackpot is $200M+.

        Almost anything can happen, and it doesn't matter what the jackpot is. Suppose they only sold one ticket for the drawing. The jackpot would only go up by 32 cents, but there could still be one winner. Sell only 5 tickets and there could be 5 winners, even though that possibility is incredibly unlikely. OTOH, they could theoretically sell 175,711,535 of the 175,711 536 combinations* and it could still roll over.

        The probabilities are easy to calculate and we can speculate all we want, but in the end the result won't necessarily be the most probable outcome. It will simply be one of the possible outcomes.

         

        * As a practical matter it's not possible to come anywhere near that close to selling all of the possible combinations. As a rough calculation selling 1,757,115,360 tickets (that's 10 times the number of possible combinations) would still leave about 5000 combinations unsold, and increase the annuity value by almost $900 million.

          LottoL's avatar - techno eye.jpg
          Texas
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          Posted: August 23, 2009, 5:37 am - IP Logged

          I don't think its going to roll, although anything can happen, especially when its programmed to!

          Best Of Luck!