|Posted: August 22, 2009, 3:17 pm - IP Logged|
The above statement can be changed to:
"The last time MM jackpot was $207M was on 08/21/09 which had total sales of ~$77,000,000 and it rolled"
Which proves anything can happen when the jackpot is $200M+.
The overall probability, as a Poisson distribution, for yesterday's sales, for a rollover was approximately 65%. There was a 28% probability of one winner, a 6% chance of 2 winners, and about 0.9% chance of 3 winners.
Yesterday's sales, by the way, established a new record for sales on a thirteenth draw.
The largest amount of sales ever to produce a rollover in this MM matrix was 110,612,211, on March 3, 2007. The rollover probability in that case was around 53%, slightly more probable than a winner or multiple winners. The drawing after that produced an annuity jackpot of $370M and sales of 212,819,366, the all time record for a single draw.
That record amount of sales produced a 30% chance of a rollover, a 36% chance of one winner, a 22% chance of 2 winners, a 9% chance of three winners, and a 3% chance of 4 winners. There were small, non-zero, probabilities of 5 or more winners, all less than 1%. I seem to recall that there were 4 winners for that drawing, which was improbable, but not impossible. It would have been fun to have seen a rollover there. I would guess the advertised annuity would have been on the order of half a billion dollars, producing hysteria.
Although it would be in record territory for a 14th draw, my gut feeling is that the sales for this drawing will be in the neighborhood of $100-110M dollars, meaning a rollover is still slightly more probable than any number of winners.
The most number of draws ever realized was 17, but the sales for even the 17th drawing were "only" 104.8M.
I doubt, with sales being up since that run, the first with California in the game, that we will ever see a 17th drawing again. It is however, not impossible, but it is improbable.
The cash/annuity ratio is higher than its ever been, by the way, meaning that this upcoming draw is more like a $300M drawing in former times.