|Posted: December 17, 2009, 4:03 pm - IP Logged|
Handicapping 101 (Part 2)
C. Work Outs: Be mindful of workouts a horse engages in. If there is a bullet by the workout it indicates that it was among the faster workouts of the day. Also, take note if the line says "handily or breezing". Handily means that the jock had to coerce the horse to run and breezing means that the horse ran of it's own accord.
First time starters should have at least 12 workouts before running a first race.
Also, be alert for bulleted works for a horse that never showed a fast work out in it's history.
D. Switching Distances: Do not confuse changing distance for switching distance. Examples of switching distance would be a horse in the next to last race was in a sprint race and the last race was a route race and today it is entered into a sprint race...this can be vice versa as well...either sprint-route-sprint (SRS) or route-sprint-route (RSR). In the SRS angle it is designed to increase the stamina of the horse and in the RSR angle it is designed to increase speed.
Look for horses in this combination angle coming back to race within 14 days.
If the return to race is longer than 14 days check that the horse has had recent works to keep them sharp.
Handicapping 101 (Part 3)
E. Speed is spelled BEYER
Beyer speed ratings or figures which appear in the program are not to be ignored! It is not the tell all win all solution but it sure can identify contenders. A quick angle is to search for the triple advantage which is simply to look at the last three figures posted and compare them against the competition. The horse with the best triple ratings will loom large over the competition. Although it is not absolute because of potential factors such as the race conditions, level of competition; etc plays roles but with speed figures one can eliminate horses which are to slow to win in races with established form.
F. Medication and Blinders
Medication relates to the use of Lasix. Lasix is used when a horse overexerts itself which results in bleeding from tiny ruptures in the lungs. The use of lasix can lead to a dramatic improvement in the horse's performance. One should look for a white L in a black circle in past and current performance(s). Also look out for a soild work out which indicates that the horse is doing well on the medication. First time lasix use can point to a winner but so too can a second time use if the prior performance on the medication did not produce a win.
Watch for European horses 2, 3, 4 yr olds first time on Lasix entering a race. Lasix is more favorible with the younger horses than older ones.
Blinders...watch for the addition of blinders in equipment changes on the program of a horse. Horses spook very easily and the addition of blinders can help the horse concentrate on running by eliminating some periferal vision problems.
G. Sleeping Beauties = Lay Off
In this angle one must be aware of horses that are returning to race after an extended lay off and may be ready to put in a winning effort.
The punter must look for results of performances of any prior lay off the horse has had. If none present then check the trainers win percentages with horses returning to race after a lay off...should be a 15% win rate or better!