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Mega Millions or Powerball will reach Half a Billion.

Topic closed. 33 replies. Last post 7 years ago by scorpio.

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Will Mega Million or Powerball reach 500 Million this year?

Yes [ 21 ]  [25.61%]
Maybe [ 8 ]  [9.76%]
Not sure [ 3 ]  [3.66%]
No [ 50 ]  [60.98%]
Total Valid Votes [ 82 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 0 ]  
JADELottery's avatar - Inky Move-01.gif
The Quantum Master
West Concord, MN
United States
Member #21
December 7, 2001
3680 Posts
Posted: February 4, 2010, 8:23 pm - IP Logged

With all the Lottery States selling both Multi-State lotteries, Mega Millions and Powerball, do you see the jackpots of either game reaching 500 Million or more this year?

I think it will reach at least 500 Million.

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    Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
    United States
    Member #48725
    January 7, 2007
    1958 Posts
    Posted: February 4, 2010, 8:33 pm - IP Logged

    There's always the possibility, but I don't think it's likely.

    Gonna win.Big Smile

      tiggs95's avatar - Lottery-036.jpg

      United States
      Member #47420
      November 4, 2006
      3930 Posts
      Posted: February 4, 2010, 8:40 pm - IP Logged

      I think if it was to happen it would be Mega Millions because of so many numbers to chose from?..I don't see how anyone can hit it with so many numbers to chose..Powerball is bad enough but not as many numbers to chose?..

        megamillionaire's avatar - Sphere animated_small_ neg2.gif
        Queens, NY
        United States
        Member #245
        April 15, 2002
        451 Posts
        Posted: February 4, 2010, 8:42 pm - IP Logged

        The fact that there are more folks in both lotteries means the buying pool is larger in both games and there's more of a chance for a jackpot to be hit before it gets to big. A topic in the news forum suggested that the jackpots might even be lower. 


        Time is a wonderful teacher, but it kills all its students.

        A man must consider what a rich realm he leaves when he becomes a conformist.

          San Diego, CA
          United States
          Member #58386
          February 12, 2008
          290 Posts
          Posted: February 4, 2010, 9:14 pm - IP Logged

          Which is exactly why their will be a matrix change for both games.

            Set4life's avatar - 2554
            East Hampton, NY
            United States
            Member #41995
            June 25, 2006
            1137 Posts
            Posted: February 4, 2010, 10:18 pm - IP Logged

            When man first looked up in the sky and wonder if he can get off earth... were landing on the moon now... i guess anything is possibleEvil Smile

                 $Group Hug$

                 FOR THE WIN!

              psykomo's avatar - animal shark.jpg

              United States
              Member #4877
              May 30, 2004
              5142 Posts
              Posted: February 4, 2010, 10:21 pm - IP Logged

              Which is exactly why their will be a matrix change for both games.


              JW>>>>>had it fingered out from beginning'ss!!!



              (G@@D POST>>>>>>JADE)

                joshuacloak's avatar - Money Swim-uncle-scrooge-mcduck-35997717-677-518.jpg

                United States
                Member #32537
                February 12, 2006
                698 Posts
                Posted: February 5, 2010, 2:21 am - IP Logged

                will the facts of the odds

                say pb cant ever get past 500, all thx to its jackpot cap

                but pb has a cap in current high 300s,  once it hits the cap, it wont go above 25m per roll,

                it wont last long at record levels, it be hit many times over in the high 300 to 400m range before it could ever get the cap above 500m



                so MM is the clear winner,  can it happen sure, but i dont think a jackpot will break 500m

                i can see mega millions going into the 400m range, sense its been not far off to reaching 400m before

                but 500m pushing it



                quick facts of how  the pb jackpot cap works if you want more info about it read on


                When the Powerball jackpot rolls into record territory, it only growsby $25 million between drawings until it is won. The rest of the moneythat normally would go to the jackpot goes instead into a separate"bonus pool." That bonus pool also keeps growing until the jackpot iswon. Once that happens, the bonus pool is divided amongst the playersin that drawing who won Powerball's second prize by matching the firstfive numbers but missing the Powerball. That prize normally is$200,000, and any share of the Bonus Pool money is added to that.

                new jackpot records yes, half a billion, Ha, but who knows


                The jackpot will need to top $365 million before the cap kicks in,

                so it would be capped at 390m,  even  IF somehow not won at that 390m level" thats pushing your luck"  it go to 415m,  their just no chance in hell it keep rolling  at them levels,

                with a cap of 25m ever time it rolls, it never EVER make it to 500m,

                its going to take MANY years of pb  records to push that cap slowly higher and higher to 500m


                while 1 good mm roll will blast off with no limit, space is the limit for it

                if its not won during the high 300m range,

                and it somehow makes it to 400m range , sells alone could it push it past 400 right into 500m easy

                , yes sir it could grow more then 100m in 1 draw, with nation lotto fever at that scale, all bets are off

                  ,i really think the chance of that happening, must  likly, not, but could it really happen this year or the coming years,you bet!


                i say we have jackpot records this year for both, , but really, 500m pushing our luck LOL

                  United States
                  Member #84266
                  December 26, 2009
                  410 Posts
                  Posted: February 5, 2010, 4:27 am - IP Logged

                  I was looking at the Jackpot history for MM and it is very interesting.For the past 8 years there has been JP winners no more than 2 monthsapart and multiple winners within a month on multiple occacasions.

                  I predict that there will be a winner before March and April at the latest.

                  So no I don't think MM will ever get to $500 million.

                    New Jersey
                    United States
                    Member #21206
                    September 4, 2005
                    949 Posts
                    Posted: February 5, 2010, 5:16 am - IP Logged

                    It is remotely possible with MM to do that.    With that lottery being almost national, it would have unbelievably high sales, almost certainly representing the highest sales figures ever recorded in either of these lotteries.

                    The current record for highest sales was in March of 1997, when MM recorded sales of $212,819,366 on a single draw, the 16th, producing a jackpot of $370,000,000.    The annuity jackpot jumped by 95 million dollars.    Using a poisson distribution one can show that the approximate numbers of winners that should have been expected was something like this:  29.7% chance of zero winners, 36.07% for one winner, 21.85%, 8.82% for 3 winners, 2.67% for 4 winners and 0.65% for 5 winners.   Note that there was a reasonable possibility it could have rolled, close to 30%.    If I actually recall correctly the prize was split, in spite of such a split being less probable than a single winner, the most probable single outcome.

                    Suppose sales doubled the largest previous.   A poisson distribution suggest that the probability of a rollover is 5% would be possible, with a 21% of one winner, a 26% of two winners. a 21% chance of three winners and a 13% of 4 winners.   The jackpot jump, annuity would be on the order of $220,000,000, pushing it up over a half a billion, with a 1 in 5 chance of one winner. 

                    Any one winner winning that much money is likely to face a lot of difficulty.





                      DFW, Texas
                      United States
                      Member #78628
                      August 18, 2009
                      134 Posts
                      Posted: February 5, 2010, 10:54 am - IP Logged

                      The Mega Millions draw video includes an estimate of the next jackpot if there is no winner.  I looked up the video from the March 6, 2007 draw with the record jackpot, and the announcer said that if there were no winners the next jackpot would be 470 million.  It's already been within one step of being close to a half-billion.

                        United States
                        Member #23835
                        October 16, 2005
                        3502 Posts
                        Posted: February 5, 2010, 1:23 pm - IP Logged

                        The fact that there are more folks in both lotteries means the buying pool is larger in both games and there's more of a chance for a jackpot to be hit before it gets to big. A topic in the news forum suggested that the jackpots might even be lower. 

                        More people playing definitely means there is likely to be a winner sooner, but more people playing also means that the jackpot will get bigger sooner. With odds of 1 in 175 million we should expect that the long term average result for MM is 1 winner for every 175 million tickets sold. That will be true whether it takes a day, a week, or a month to sell that many tickets.

                        With more people playing there may be less chance of the jackpot rolling from $150 million to $300+ million, but that will be balanced by the bigger jumps in each roll. Instead of rolls from 150 to 170, 200 and 235 before getting hit we may see rolls from 150 to 185, and then 225 with a winner. What's definite is that when it does make it to the high 200's or low 300's the next roll will be huge unless it has to compete with a similarly big PB jackpot. If a MM jackpot advertised at anything over 300 does roll a jackpot of 500 or more is an almost sure thing.

                        PB doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of seeing 500 this year because of the cap. The next record PB jackpot can't be anything over 390, and that has to be followed by jackpts of no more than 415, 440, 465, and 490 before it can reach 500. Those are all maximums based on the $25 million cap, and we could actually see records that are smaller than that, so it might take more than 5 new records before there's any chance at all of breaking 500.

                          Raven62's avatar - binary
                          New Jersey
                          United States
                          Member #17843
                          June 28, 2005
                          51003 Posts
                          Posted: February 5, 2010, 2:22 pm - IP Logged

                          With all the Lottery States selling both Multi-State lotteries, Mega Millions and Powerball, do you see the jackpots of either game reaching 500 Million or more this year?

                          I think it will reach at least 500 Million.

                          Winning a $500,000,000 Jackpot may not be all that it's cracked up to be:

                          The euphoric moment of realization is usually the point where most lottery winners become overwhelmed by the enormity of the wave they are about to ride. Once the initial buzz wears off, they rapidly slide downward, becoming consumed by an avalanche of impulsive spending and bad investments.

                          According to renowned lottery wonk Gerry Beyer, who teaches estate law at Texas Tech University and has written about the experiences of people who come into sudden wealth, "The vast majority of lottery winners squander their winnings within a relatively short period of time." And while they're at it, they also do so much damage to their lives, families and psyches that they are often happy to be rid of the money once it's gone.

                          I hope NOT!

                          A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                            United States
                            Member #9
                            March 24, 2001
                            19894 Posts
                            Posted: February 5, 2010, 2:53 pm - IP Logged

                            With their matrix unchanged, there's no reason either game should have a jackpot any larger then they had in the past.  More people playing just means they will do what they've done in the past faster and more often.

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                                         Evil Looking       

                              LottoL's avatar - techno eye.jpg
                              United States
                              Member #33719
                              February 24, 2006
                              705 Posts
                              Posted: February 5, 2010, 5:06 pm - IP Logged

                              Powerball should have reached this milestone when they last changed their matrix for a win to 1 in 195,249,054.

                              From January 7, 2009 until January 31, 2010 (before the PB & MM cross selling agreement went into effect) there should have been a Powerball drawing of at least a half a billion, probably more (based on these outrageous odds).

                              But, this was not to be.  Probably players got better at picking numbers (yeh right), or maybe more quickpick winners were added to the system.  Either way, there was no gigantic half a billion or even billion dollar lottery.

                              Now that more states are added to PB and MM without any additional matrix changes, it's hard for me to believe that lotteries this size will ever exist, but you never know.

                              Best Of Luck!