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How The Winners, Not Numbers, Are Picked. A Theorem.

Topic closed. 62 replies. Last post 6 years ago by sully16.

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Nino224's avatar - Lottery-013.jpg
Miami
United States
Member #62793
July 9, 2008
673 Posts
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Posted: June 25, 2010, 2:41 am - IP Logged

The debate about whether anyone can develop a reliable lottery system will go on forever. My own opinion is you can't predict what the heck a ping pong ball is going to do. Period.

Regardless, I believe winning any of the lottery games is less about "trapping" the right numbers than it is about when and where you play.

A densely populated city like New York or Miami is going to have the highest number of winners, but if they get too many winners then the Lottery commission is faced with the dilemma of losing customers in other smaller areas. That's why I think the where a winning ticket is sold isn't left to chance.

If you look at the list of winners for any of the Millionaire Raffles or Second Chance drawings Florida has had, it looks like a politician's whistle stop tour map. There's a deliberate effort to cover as much territory as possible, without leaving anyone out.

I just don't think you'd end up with those results if it were truly random.

"...a chance to push everything aside, the circumstances that've controlled our lives, and do it our way now. Good, bad or otherwise. You'll maybe get lost in it, tied up in it a little bit, but if you work your way through that the real you shows up, I think. Maybe what's at your core deep down, maybe that comes out. Maybe that's what it's about." Mike Pace 

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
    United States
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    March 24, 2001
    19825 Posts
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    Posted: June 25, 2010, 4:44 am - IP Logged

    If you avoid scratch-off and raffle tickets and stick with games with ping pong balls drawings in which the winning combinations aren't known until after the drawings then you don't have to worry about that.  In such games anyone can pick the winning combinations.

    Debates and opinions never produced anything but an argument let alone a reliable lottery system.  If players believe such system are possible then they should work on developing one and not waste time arguing about it.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

      Nino224's avatar - Lottery-013.jpg
      Miami
      United States
      Member #62793
      July 9, 2008
      673 Posts
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      Posted: June 25, 2010, 5:04 am - IP Logged

      I agree about the scratch-offs and raffles, but I've seen your name in plenty of those debates over reliable systems, lol!!

      "...a chance to push everything aside, the circumstances that've controlled our lives, and do it our way now. Good, bad or otherwise. You'll maybe get lost in it, tied up in it a little bit, but if you work your way through that the real you shows up, I think. Maybe what's at your core deep down, maybe that comes out. Maybe that's what it's about." Mike Pace 

        Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
        Zeta Reticuli Star System
        United States
        Member #30470
        January 17, 2006
        10348 Posts
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        Posted: June 25, 2010, 10:10 am - IP Logged

        Nino224,

        I have to disagree with your theory about spreading the winners around. Consider that most jackpot winners are quick picks. Now unless you're saying that the lottery "powers that be" are saying something like, "Look, someone in that town with a population of 256 just bought a QP, let's make sure it wins", then the theory isn't valid.

        One of the 5 + 1 games covers this on their FAQ page. "How come the winner is always in _ _ _ _ _?"

        Go to the Illinois Lilttle Lotto thread in the Pick 5 forum and see how many times the winner was in Chicago. That's usually the case. Grantd, it's pick 5 but there's a drawing everyday.

        From what I understand the Florida Pick 5 (Fantasy Five?) is the same way with Miami.

        More winners are going to come from where more tickets are sold, and more tickets are going to be sold where the population is.

        Until of course everyone at LP bands together and starts a community somewhere, "Lottoland" or "Lottoville" in some state.

        From the Powerball FAQ page:

        HOW COME THE ONLY JACKPOT WINNERS ARE FROM THE [EAST - WEST - NORTH - SOUTH - CITIES - RURAL AREAS]?
        HOW COME ONLY [WHITE, BLACK, TALL, SKINNY, YOUNG, OLD] PEOPLE WIN?

        Powerball is a random game that knows nothing about who buys a ticketor where the ticket was purchased. There really is nowhite/black/old/young/rich/poor, etc.] button on the machine. If onedraws a box around some group of players (eg., state border, haircolor, shoe size), then that group of players will win in proportion totheir play. If the defined group buys 10% of the tickets, then theywill win 10% of the prizes - on average and over a reasonable period oftime. The Law of Large numbers explains how random expectations becometruer as the number of occurrences increases. So, if players in aparticular group buy 8.6754% of the tickets, then we will find, if thenumber of occurrences (prizes awarded) are large enough, that thoseplayers win 8.6754% of the prizes. This is definitely true for thelow-tier prizes where there are large numbers of winners. With 12 to 15jackpot winners in a year, we would expect that these percentages canget out of sync with sales from time to time, but as the number ofjackpot winners continues to increase, we will find that the percentagenumbers move closer and closer to being the same number. Try thisexperiment. Flip a coin four times. You might get 75% heads - or even100%. But then flip it 1,000 times (no cheating). You will come muchcloser to the statistical expectation of 50% heads. It really does NOTmake any difference where you buy your ticket.

        Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

        Lep

        There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

          tiggs95's avatar - Lottery-036.jpg

          United States
          Member #47420
          November 4, 2006
          3930 Posts
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          Posted: June 25, 2010, 10:54 am - IP Logged

          The debate about whether anyone can develop a reliable lottery system will go on forever. My own opinion is you can't predict what the heck a ping pong ball is going to do. Period.

          Regardless, I believe winning any of the lottery games is less about "trapping" the right numbers than it is about when and where you play.

          A densely populated city like New York or Miami is going to have the highest number of winners, but if they get too many winners then the Lottery commission is faced with the dilemma of losing customers in other smaller areas. That's why I think the where a winning ticket is sold isn't left to chance.

          If you look at the list of winners for any of the Millionaire Raffles or Second Chance drawings Florida has had, it looks like a politician's whistle stop tour map. There's a deliberate effort to cover as much territory as possible, without leaving anyone out.

          I just don't think you'd end up with those results if it were truly random.

          "You can't predict what the heck a ping pong ball is going to do.Period"..tiggs has said this over and over and over..You are so right with this part of the statement..Way to go...!!!!

            Avatar
            Kentucky
            United States
            Member #32652
            February 14, 2006
            7302 Posts
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            Posted: June 25, 2010, 12:17 pm - IP Logged

            Nino224,

            I have to disagree with your theory about spreading the winners around. Consider that most jackpot winners are quick picks. Now unless you're saying that the lottery "powers that be" are saying something like, "Look, someone in that town with a population of 256 just bought a QP, let's make sure it wins", then the theory isn't valid.

            One of the 5 + 1 games covers this on their FAQ page. "How come the winner is always in _ _ _ _ _?"

            Go to the Illinois Lilttle Lotto thread in the Pick 5 forum and see how many times the winner was in Chicago. That's usually the case. Grantd, it's pick 5 but there's a drawing everyday.

            From what I understand the Florida Pick 5 (Fantasy Five?) is the same way with Miami.

            More winners are going to come from where more tickets are sold, and more tickets are going to be sold where the population is.

            Until of course everyone at LP bands together and starts a community somewhere, "Lottoland" or "Lottoville" in some state.

            From the Powerball FAQ page:

            HOW COME THE ONLY JACKPOT WINNERS ARE FROM THE [EAST - WEST - NORTH - SOUTH - CITIES - RURAL AREAS]?
            HOW COME ONLY [WHITE, BLACK, TALL, SKINNY, YOUNG, OLD] PEOPLE WIN?

            Powerball is a random game that knows nothing about who buys a ticketor where the ticket was purchased. There really is nowhite/black/old/young/rich/poor, etc.] button on the machine. If onedraws a box around some group of players (eg., state border, haircolor, shoe size), then that group of players will win in proportion totheir play. If the defined group buys 10% of the tickets, then theywill win 10% of the prizes - on average and over a reasonable period oftime. The Law of Large numbers explains how random expectations becometruer as the number of occurrences increases. So, if players in aparticular group buy 8.6754% of the tickets, then we will find, if thenumber of occurrences (prizes awarded) are large enough, that thoseplayers win 8.6754% of the prizes. This is definitely true for thelow-tier prizes where there are large numbers of winners. With 12 to 15jackpot winners in a year, we would expect that these percentages canget out of sync with sales from time to time, but as the number ofjackpot winners continues to increase, we will find that the percentagenumbers move closer and closer to being the same number. Try thisexperiment. Flip a coin four times. You might get 75% heads - or even100%. But then flip it 1,000 times (no cheating). You will come muchcloser to the statistical expectation of 50% heads. It really does NOTmake any difference where you buy your ticket.

            I Agree!

            It's the same in all states that have huge population areas where many people work there. Somebody might live in a small Illinois town population 750 but work in Chicago and that's where they buy their lottery tickets. When you look it probability, it's obvious that if 75% of the tickets are sold in Chicago or Miami, over time 75% of the winners will come from those areas.

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
              United States
              Member #9
              March 24, 2001
              19825 Posts
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              Posted: June 25, 2010, 1:28 pm - IP Logged

               I Agree!  I agree but..............

              I suppose the question could be asked why Ohio has two PB jackpot winners since it started cross selling PB tickets and yet Florida who has sold more than four times as many tickets during that same period had none? 

              Are Ohioans smarter, luckier, or is Ohio targeted as a winning state? All kinds of weird interpretations could be drawn from those statistics.  That is one of the reasons I am reluctant to dismiss anyone claims before checking the facts behind their claims.   I like to think that LP members are serious lottery players and don't make unsupported claims off the tops of their heads.

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       

                tiggs95's avatar - Lottery-036.jpg

                United States
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                November 4, 2006
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                Posted: June 25, 2010, 1:34 pm - IP Logged

                It's nothing but luck..Winners are happy and losers complain it's as simple as that..

                  GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
                  NY State
                  United States
                  Member #92609
                  June 10, 2010
                  3695 Posts
                  Online
                  Posted: June 25, 2010, 2:51 pm - IP Logged

                  The debate about whether anyone can develop a reliable lottery system will go on forever. My own opinion is you can't predict what the heck a ping pong ball is going to do. Period.

                  Regardless, I believe winning any of the lottery games is less about "trapping" the right numbers than it is about when and where you play.

                  A densely populated city like New York or Miami is going to have the highest number of winners, but if they get too many winners then the Lottery commission is faced with the dilemma of losing customers in other smaller areas. That's why I think the where a winning ticket is sold isn't left to chance.

                  If you look at the list of winners for any of the Millionaire Raffles or Second Chance drawings Florida has had, it looks like a politician's whistle stop tour map. There's a deliberate effort to cover as much territory as possible, without leaving anyone out.

                  I just don't think you'd end up with those results if it were truly random.

                  As a resident of upstate New York (not Buffalo) I always disliked the fact that the majority of the press releases for NY's online lottery games show the county where a winning jackpot ticket was sold as either the eight counties that make up the New York City metropolitan area or Erie County. (Buffalo is located in Erie County)  But it made sense to me because as Coin Toss stated in his post, "More winners are going to come from where more tickets are sold, and more tickets are going to be sold where the population is." 

                  There are 62 county's in New York state. In the first six months of 2010, online jackpot winners have been sold in 38 of those 62 counties. Also, what about the independent auditing firms hired by the state's lottery commisson?  During every online game drawing, the Emcee says the game "is being observed by an independent auditor from KPMG".  I have to believe KPMG is looking at more than just the drawings. If any fraud was being perpetuated and uncovered, it would kill the cash cow that The State of New York is so very lately dependent upon. 

                  Most of the jackpot winners are QP's. As far as QP's go, the terminal at the lottery retailer has the RNG program installed on it. That program is not running on a central lottery server located in Albany. The reason that's done is because a centrally located server generating QP numbers could be easily tampered with. It would be no easy task to rig a handful of the 16,000+ statewide terminals every day to ensure sparsely populated county's get a jackpot winner.

                  About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!


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                    Posted: June 25, 2010, 3:16 pm - IP Logged

                    It's nothing but luck..Winners are happy and losers complain it's as simple as that..

                    It's not ALL luck Tiggs. Knowledgeable folks can influence their chance of hitting. Surely luck is a major factor, but patterns do exist, and can be taken advantage of to increase the chances of winning.

                    An extreme example would be the following. Imagine If I bought every possible combo in the Fantasy Five in Florida, which is about 376,000, and won the JP, would you call that luck?

                      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                      Zeta Reticuli Star System
                      United States
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                      Posted: June 25, 2010, 4:17 pm - IP Logged

                      Not that you'd do that ^ joker17, but in that case it would be lucky for the lottery to have such a player.

                      Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                      Lep

                      There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                        tiggs95's avatar - Lottery-036.jpg

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                        Posted: June 25, 2010, 4:19 pm - IP Logged

                        Not that you'd do that ^ joker17, but in that case it would be lucky for the lottery to have such a player.

                        Coin Toss is a genius..Bet over 350,000.00 to win maybe 100,000.00.,.Great odds in that..


                          United States
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                          Posted: June 25, 2010, 4:38 pm - IP Logged

                          Coin Toss is a genius..Bet over 350,000.00 to win maybe 100,000.00.,.Great odds in that..

                          I was simply making a point. Obviously no one in their right mind would or could do it. That's why I wrote it as an "extreme" example.

                           

                            Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                            Zeta Reticuli Star System
                            United States
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                            Posted: June 25, 2010, 4:47 pm - IP Logged

                            Extreme indeed, joker17! Ironically though, I think there are some people, given a healthy enough bankroll, that would do it, just for the braging rights. Bark of bitter tree tastes good to hungry squirrel (F-Troop).

                            ////////////////////////////////

                            I will say that I have seen the oppposite of the question posed in the OP happen.

                            One of the downtown casinos in Vegas had a free contest promotion, just fill out an entry with your name, initials, and zip code and put it in a drum. Three initials, (N for None) and a five digit zip code is actually a "Pick 8" if you will. You had to match all eight to win.

                            Night after night, when they drew letters and numbers they kept coming up with initials like QQX in a zip code somewhere in the rural Midwest. Ahem!

                            Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                            Lep

                            There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                              rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                              Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
                              United States
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                              April 28, 2009
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                              Posted: June 25, 2010, 4:54 pm - IP Logged

                              It's not ALL luck Tiggs. Knowledgeable folks can influence their chance of hitting. Surely luck is a major factor, but patterns do exist, and can be taken advantage of to increase the chances of winning.

                              An extreme example would be the following. Imagine If I bought every possible combo in the Fantasy Five in Florida, which is about 376,000, and won the JP, would you call that luck?

                              Don't waste your time explaining patterns to tiggs joker.

                              The only pattern he knows is the plaid pattern on his 1970's era polyester bell bottom pants with the big, wide, white, patent leather belt up around his chest.

                              He is really one swingin hip cat in Kentucky, Daddy-O!


                                                                           
                                                   
                                                                       

                               

                               

                               

                               

                                                                                                                                 

                              "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                                          --Edmund Burke