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How The Winners, Not Numbers, Are Picked. A Theorem.

Topic closed. 62 replies. Last post 6 years ago by sully16.

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Nino224's avatar - Lottery-013.jpg
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July 9, 2008
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Posted: June 26, 2010, 1:08 am - IP Logged

Nino224,

I have to disagree with your theory about spreading the winners around. Consider that most jackpot winners are quick picks. Now unless you're saying that the lottery "powers that be" are saying something like, "Look, someone in that town with a population of 256 just bought a QP, let's make sure it wins", then the theory isn't valid.

One of the 5 + 1 games covers this on their FAQ page. "How come the winner is always in _ _ _ _ _?"

Go to the Illinois Lilttle Lotto thread in the Pick 5 forum and see how many times the winner was in Chicago. That's usually the case. Grantd, it's pick 5 but there's a drawing everyday.

From what I understand the Florida Pick 5 (Fantasy Five?) is the same way with Miami.

More winners are going to come from where more tickets are sold, and more tickets are going to be sold where the population is.

Until of course everyone at LP bands together and starts a community somewhere, "Lottoland" or "Lottoville" in some state.

From the Powerball FAQ page:

HOW COME THE ONLY JACKPOT WINNERS ARE FROM THE [EAST - WEST - NORTH - SOUTH - CITIES - RURAL AREAS]?
HOW COME ONLY [WHITE, BLACK, TALL, SKINNY, YOUNG, OLD] PEOPLE WIN?

Powerball is a random game that knows nothing about who buys a ticketor where the ticket was purchased. There really is nowhite/black/old/young/rich/poor, etc.] button on the machine. If onedraws a box around some group of players (eg., state border, haircolor, shoe size), then that group of players will win in proportion totheir play. If the defined group buys 10% of the tickets, then theywill win 10% of the prizes - on average and over a reasonable period oftime. The Law of Large numbers explains how random expectations becometruer as the number of occurrences increases. So, if players in aparticular group buy 8.6754% of the tickets, then we will find, if thenumber of occurrences (prizes awarded) are large enough, that thoseplayers win 8.6754% of the prizes. This is definitely true for thelow-tier prizes where there are large numbers of winners. With 12 to 15jackpot winners in a year, we would expect that these percentages canget out of sync with sales from time to time, but as the number ofjackpot winners continues to increase, we will find that the percentagenumbers move closer and closer to being the same number. Try thisexperiment. Flip a coin four times. You might get 75% heads - or even100%. But then flip it 1,000 times (no cheating). You will come muchcloser to the statistical expectation of 50% heads. It really does NOTmake any difference where you buy your ticket.

I should clarify. As I stated in the first part of my statement, no one can control ping pong balls. And yes, most winners are going to be in the most highly concentrated areas, hence SW 8th St or Flagler in Miami. 

When it comes to raffles and scratch-offs, however, I think there's no question they're "spreading the wealth."

"...a chance to push everything aside, the circumstances that've controlled our lives, and do it our way now. Good, bad or otherwise. You'll maybe get lost in it, tied up in it a little bit, but if you work your way through that the real you shows up, I think. Maybe what's at your core deep down, maybe that comes out. Maybe that's what it's about." Mike Pace 

    Nino224's avatar - Lottery-013.jpg
    Miami
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    Posted: June 26, 2010, 1:09 am - IP Logged

    "You can't predict what the heck a ping pong ball is going to do.Period"..tiggs has said this over and over and over..You are so right with this part of the statement..Way to go...!!!!

    Tiggs is talking about himself in the third person! YIKES!!

    "...a chance to push everything aside, the circumstances that've controlled our lives, and do it our way now. Good, bad or otherwise. You'll maybe get lost in it, tied up in it a little bit, but if you work your way through that the real you shows up, I think. Maybe what's at your core deep down, maybe that comes out. Maybe that's what it's about." Mike Pace 

      Nino224's avatar - Lottery-013.jpg
      Miami
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      Posted: June 26, 2010, 1:12 am - IP Logged

       I Agree!  I agree but..............

      I suppose the question could be asked why Ohio has two PB jackpot winners since it started cross selling PB tickets and yet Florida who has sold more than four times as many tickets during that same period had none? 

      Are Ohioans smarter, luckier, or is Ohio targeted as a winning state? All kinds of weird interpretations could be drawn from those statistics.  That is one of the reasons I am reluctant to dismiss anyone claims before checking the facts behind their claims.   I like to think that LP members are serious lottery players and don't make unsupported claims off the tops of their heads.

      I can support my claim. Just look at where the big winners are raffles and scratch-offs in FLA.

      "...a chance to push everything aside, the circumstances that've controlled our lives, and do it our way now. Good, bad or otherwise. You'll maybe get lost in it, tied up in it a little bit, but if you work your way through that the real you shows up, I think. Maybe what's at your core deep down, maybe that comes out. Maybe that's what it's about." Mike Pace 

        Nino224's avatar - Lottery-013.jpg
        Miami
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        Posted: June 26, 2010, 1:14 am - IP Logged

        As a resident of upstate New York (not Buffalo) I always disliked the fact that the majority of the press releases for NY's online lottery games show the county where a winning jackpot ticket was sold as either the eight counties that make up the New York City metropolitan area or Erie County. (Buffalo is located in Erie County)  But it made sense to me because as Coin Toss stated in his post, "More winners are going to come from where more tickets are sold, and more tickets are going to be sold where the population is." 

        There are 62 county's in New York state. In the first six months of 2010, online jackpot winners have been sold in 38 of those 62 counties. Also, what about the independent auditing firms hired by the state's lottery commisson?  During every online game drawing, the Emcee says the game "is being observed by an independent auditor from KPMG".  I have to believe KPMG is looking at more than just the drawings. If any fraud was being perpetuated and uncovered, it would kill the cash cow that The State of New York is so very lately dependent upon. 

        Most of the jackpot winners are QP's. As far as QP's go, the terminal at the lottery retailer has the RNG program installed on it. That program is not running on a central lottery server located in Albany. The reason that's done is because a centrally located server generating QP numbers could be easily tampered with. It would be no easy task to rig a handful of the 16,000+ statewide terminals every day to ensure sparsely populated county's get a jackpot winner.

        I agree with not looking here for numbers.

        Are we sure the RNG on the terminal ISN'T connected to the main server? How would you know?

        "...a chance to push everything aside, the circumstances that've controlled our lives, and do it our way now. Good, bad or otherwise. You'll maybe get lost in it, tied up in it a little bit, but if you work your way through that the real you shows up, I think. Maybe what's at your core deep down, maybe that comes out. Maybe that's what it's about." Mike Pace 

          Nino224's avatar - Lottery-013.jpg
          Miami
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          Posted: June 26, 2010, 1:16 am - IP Logged

          I don't think you could fill out all the slips in time for the drawing, lol!!

          "...a chance to push everything aside, the circumstances that've controlled our lives, and do it our way now. Good, bad or otherwise. You'll maybe get lost in it, tied up in it a little bit, but if you work your way through that the real you shows up, I think. Maybe what's at your core deep down, maybe that comes out. Maybe that's what it's about." Mike Pace 

            Nino224's avatar - Lottery-013.jpg
            Miami
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            Posted: June 26, 2010, 1:31 am - IP Logged

            1972 or 1973, in Times Square....lol

            times square

            Wow, my hometown back in the good ol' days before Times Square became the grotesque spectacle it is today.

            And look at what's playing at the Forum!

            "...a chance to push everything aside, the circumstances that've controlled our lives, and do it our way now. Good, bad or otherwise. You'll maybe get lost in it, tied up in it a little bit, but if you work your way through that the real you shows up, I think. Maybe what's at your core deep down, maybe that comes out. Maybe that's what it's about." Mike Pace 

              rdgrnr's avatar - walt
              Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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              Posted: June 26, 2010, 5:34 am - IP Logged

              Tiggs is talking about himself in the third person! YIKES!!

              That's how he avoids taking responsibility for what he does or says.

              " tiggs did this" or "tiggs said that" - makes it sound kinda like someone else did it or said it. That makes it easy for him to disassociate himself from the act or utterance when it is routinely deemed to be insane and curl up into a fetal position, suck his thumb and rock himself into a catatoniac trance. 

              Crazy people drive me nuts.


                                                           
                                   
                                                       

               

               

               

               

                                                                                                                 

              "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                          --Edmund Burke

               

               


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                October 31, 2009
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                Posted: June 26, 2010, 6:02 am - IP Logged

                As a resident of upstate New York (not Buffalo) I always disliked the fact that the majority of the press releases for NY's online lottery games show the county where a winning jackpot ticket was sold as either the eight counties that make up the New York City metropolitan area or Erie County. (Buffalo is located in Erie County)  But it made sense to me because as Coin Toss stated in his post, "More winners are going to come from where more tickets are sold, and more tickets are going to be sold where the population is." 

                There are 62 county's in New York state. In the first six months of 2010, online jackpot winners have been sold in 38 of those 62 counties. Also, what about the independent auditing firms hired by the state's lottery commisson?  During every online game drawing, the Emcee says the game "is being observed by an independent auditor from KPMG".  I have to believe KPMG is looking at more than just the drawings. If any fraud was being perpetuated and uncovered, it would kill the cash cow that The State of New York is so very lately dependent upon. 

                Most of the jackpot winners are QP's. As far as QP's go, the terminal at the lottery retailer has the RNG program installed on it. That program is not running on a central lottery server located in Albany. The reason that's done is because a centrally located server generating QP numbers could be easily tampered with. It would be no easy task to rig a handful of the 16,000+ statewide terminals every day to ensure sparsely populated county's get a jackpot winner.

                That last paragraph-   is that fer sure? I mean really fer sure that the RNG is local to the terminal? I was under the impression the QP’s were generated and loaded remotely to the terminal and were replaced as needed by sales. How would 16,000 terminals keep from the event of printing several jackpots before exhausting the entire pool? Anybody know if QP’s split jackpots on small QP sales?

                Thanks.

                DD

                PS that reminds me, I have some QP’s to look at from a week ago. I wonder if I got a Banana

                  rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                  Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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                  Posted: June 26, 2010, 6:22 am - IP Logged

                  That last paragraph-   is that fer sure? I mean really fer sure that the RNG is local to the terminal? I was under the impression the QP’s were generated and loaded remotely to the terminal and were replaced as needed by sales. How would 16,000 terminals keep from the event of printing several jackpots before exhausting the entire pool? Anybody know if QP’s split jackpots on small QP sales?

                  Thanks.

                  DD

                  PS that reminds me, I have some QP’s to look at from a week ago. I wonder if I got a Banana

                  If the numbers generated by the RNG are truly random, the possibility for duplicate QP numbers would have to exist whether generated centrally or locally, no?

                  It would be interesting to know if QP's have split JP's though.


                                                               
                                       
                                                           

                   

                   

                   

                   

                                                                                                                     

                  "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                              --Edmund Burke

                   

                   

                    rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                    Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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                    Posted: June 26, 2010, 7:04 am - IP Logged

                    Wow, my hometown back in the good ol' days before Times Square became the grotesque spectacle it is today.

                    And look at what's playing at the Forum!

                    Yeah, Deliverance was a great Documentary of everyday life in Kentucky.

                    tiggs packed up his canary yellow bell bottoms and his platform shoes and moved there right after he saw that movie.


                                                                 
                                         
                                                             

                     

                     

                     

                     

                                                                                                                       

                    "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                                --Edmund Burke

                     

                     

                      tiggs95's avatar - Lottery-036.jpg

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                      Posted: June 26, 2010, 7:52 am - IP Logged

                      That's how he avoids taking responsibility for what he does or says.

                      " tiggs did this" or "tiggs said that" - makes it sound kinda like someone else did it or said it. That makes it easy for him to disassociate himself from the act or utterance when it is routinely deemed to be insane and curl up into a fetal position, suck his thumb and rock himself into a catatoniac trance. 

                      Crazy people drive me nuts.

                      Yup tiggs is all the above..Some hick from the hills of Tn knows all,just ask him..tiggs forgives ridge..Like God says "he knows what not he says"..Or was that Soupy Sales?..

                        rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                        Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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                        Posted: June 26, 2010, 8:37 am - IP Logged

                        Yup tiggs is all the above..Some hick from the hills of Tn knows all,just ask him..tiggs forgives ridge..Like God says "he knows what not he says"..Or was that Soupy Sales?..

                        Uh oh, Rosie's gonna getcha for that one.


                                                                     
                                             
                                                                 

                         

                         

                         

                         

                                                                                                                           

                        "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                                    --Edmund Burke

                         

                         

                          tiggs95's avatar - Lottery-036.jpg

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                          Posted: June 26, 2010, 8:56 am - IP Logged

                          Uh oh, Rosie's gonna getcha for that one.

                          tiggs is trembling..Oh God please help tiggs..tiggs is praying..Let's hope God answers this one..

                            GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
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                            Posted: June 26, 2010, 9:37 am - IP Logged

                            I agree with not looking here for numbers.

                            Are we sure the RNG on the terminal ISN'T connected to the main server? How would you know?

                            I should apologise.  My information regarding the RNG being installed on the terminal at the lottery retailer is only second hand.  I do not get it directly from The New York State Lottery.

                            I know someone who is a licensed lottery retailer. It was they told me the RNG is installed on the terminal in their store.  However,  I cant positively say they got that info from The NY State Lottery.  The fact is I dont know how or where they got that info, though I dont have any reason to doubt them. 

                            This much is fact: In NY, retailers that are conditionally approved for a license to sell lottery products must attend an orientation meeting, followed by a training class.  After the training class has been completed, a terminal is installed, and the retailer may begin selling lottery products.  It possible that the retailer I know got their info at either the orientation meeting or the training class. Also, a Lottery Sales Rep visit's their store frequently. That's another possible source of the information.

                            I'll ask my aquaintence what was the source of their info and post their response here.

                            About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!

                              GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
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                              Posted: June 26, 2010, 9:55 am - IP Logged

                              If the numbers generated by the RNG are truly random, the possibility for duplicate QP numbers would have to exist whether generated centrally or locally, no?

                              It would be interesting to know if QP's have split JP's though.

                              You're correct, duplicate QP numbers can an do exist.

                              In New York, it's not uncommon for duplicate QP numbers to win jackpots.  NY lottery tickets are paid on a pari- mutuel basis. If there are two jackpot winners, the jackpot is split 50/50 regardless of what type(s) of ticket won.

                              About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!