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Is There Any Way To Predict Pick-5? Past Performance is "Gamblers Fallacy"

Topic closed. 24 replies. Last post 6 years ago by Liber8tor.

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Liber8tor's avatar - Lottery-031.jpg
Ft. Myers,Florida
United States
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December 17, 2009
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Posted: July 10, 2010, 1:54 pm - IP Logged

Yesterday.. after mowing my lawn.. I was sitting around the garage when my neighbor  (who is a college math teacher) came over, and we had an hour-long discussion  (well, OK, an argument)  concerning the above topic.

Obviously.. he is way more knowledgeable about math than I am.  (I barely passed Algebra-101).

He says that no matter what... in picking lottery numbers, the (P) probability always remains at .5 or 50/50. For instance.. say you toss a coin... the (P) is .5 that it will come up heads and .5 that it will come up tails. The coin does not have a memory. It does not know what it did the last time.

I argued that "No"... there is a randomness.. and you can use this randomness to predict future patterns or repeat Lotto numbers. For instance... if you do 1000 coin tosses... yes, I agree.. you will get 500 heads and 500 tails.  But in the early going... say tosses 1 thru 12.. it is very easy to get, say, 12 heads in a row or 7 tails in a row! Assuming that the lotto balls are fair  (not weighted or damaged) there IS a pattern there.

My math buddy again said "No", as he slam dunked his empty beer can into the trash.  He said I was suffering from a bad case of "Gamblers Fallacy". That is the belief that past results can predict future outcomes.  So we tried a few Probability equations called Cumulative Binomial and Negative Binomial Probability.

The best results  or accuracy we could achieve using these complicated Probability formulas  to predict the next lotto number was .6 or 60%.  (Which is a little better than 50/50 ...but not by much).

He went on to say that the Casinos use this Gamblers Fallacy to take advantage of people who play the slots and/or the Roulette wheel.  For instance, if a slot machine has not hit in a long time.. someone may say that it is "Due".  Or, if a Roulette wheel comes up red 10 times in a row... then the next time HAS to be a blue.  He said the house always wins.. and the players lose money in these conditions.

So.. we ended our "discussion" there.. lol.  To be continued.

  I guess there will always be the question of "The Chicken or the Egg.. but I still think there is more to the random numbers than the Math gurus admit... Smile

"In Lotto... the trend is your friend.."

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    Honduras
    Member #20982
    August 29, 2005
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    Posted: July 10, 2010, 2:16 pm - IP Logged

    Yesterday.. after mowing my lawn.. I was sitting around the garage when my neighbor  (who is a college math teacher) came over, and we had an hour-long discussion  (well, OK, an argument)  concerning the above topic.

    Obviously.. he is way more knowledgeable about math than I am.  (I barely passed Algebra-101).

    He says that no matter what... in picking lottery numbers, the (P) probability always remains at .5 or 50/50. For instance.. say you toss a coin... the (P) is .5 that it will come up heads and .5 that it will come up tails. The coin does not have a memory. It does not know what it did the last time.

    I argued that "No"... there is a randomness.. and you can use this randomness to predict future patterns or repeat Lotto numbers. For instance... if you do 1000 coin tosses... yes, I agree.. you will get 500 heads and 500 tails.  But in the early going... say tosses 1 thru 12.. it is very easy to get, say, 12 heads in a row or 7 tails in a row! Assuming that the lotto balls are fair  (not weighted or damaged) there IS a pattern there.

    My math buddy again said "No", as he slam dunked his empty beer can into the trash.  He said I was suffering from a bad case of "Gamblers Fallacy". That is the belief that past results can predict future outcomes.  So we tried a few Probability equations called Cumulative Binomial and Negative Binomial Probability.

    The best results  or accuracy we could achieve using these complicated Probability formulas  to predict the next lotto number was .6 or 60%.  (Which is a little better than 50/50 ...but not by much).

    He went on to say that the Casinos use this Gamblers Fallacy to take advantage of people who play the slots and/or the Roulette wheel.  For instance, if a slot machine has not hit in a long time.. someone may say that it is "Due".  Or, if a Roulette wheel comes up red 10 times in a row... then the next time HAS to be a blue.  He said the house always wins.. and the players lose money in these conditions.

    So.. we ended our "discussion" there.. lol.  To be continued.

      I guess there will always be the question of "The Chicken or the Egg.. but I still think there is more to the random numbers than the Math gurus admit... Smile

    i wanted to mention this going on about 2 or 3 years...The idea that if you toss a coin 100 times, 50% of the time it will be heads the other 50% it will be tails, that sounds like magic, the ratio should be random, a coin doesnt have memory/recollection of its previous accomplishment...It should be RANDOM...that process to me is like magic or the influence of some force beyond this world or the influence of the Earth´s GRAVITY...Just the same way when the balls are colliding you dont know which ball will hit which one...I think is the WEIGHT of the coin, because if you threw a coin made out of: tin/aluminum the ratio of heads and tails i think it will be random or different...

    The Forex trades: 1.6 Trillion dollars EVERY day, that´s more than the GDP of the Carribbean Central America, COMBINED. Enough to feed every crook out there for centuries...To all Geniuses & Powers Countries of the World the Planet needs breakthroughs in all Medicine, Veterinary, Biology related fields, Psychology, Population Psychology/Sociology..They need to genetically ingeneer new plants species/types to give more variety of plants and thus have more resources for combating diseases¨


     


     


     

     


      Rockwell's avatar - redordead
      New York
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      Posted: July 10, 2010, 2:23 pm - IP Logged

      In essence, the math is correct. If you flip a coin it is 50/50 every flip that heads will prevail. However there are Probabilities and Averages. These Laws do exist, and can be superimposed with RNG.

      Also, when it comes to predicting Pick 5 you can entertain more FACTS into the formula.The more stats you have, the more angles you can illustrate; which can equate to a winning edge.

      Numbers have a history. It's called a pattern, or a trend. Numbers also cycle. The frequency of an individual number can be charted, hence helping the player anticipate it being drawn.

      This is a very old argument. Optimists and Pessimists. Optimists usually gamble. Pessimists do not. If you apply the laws of averages to the Pick 5 game you can easily predict one, two or maybe 3 out of the 5 numbers to be drawn. How? Simply by reviewing the historical data. Numbers tend to repeat. A statistic that cannot be refuted. Numbers tend to come out with "other" numbers more than once. This is a best pair statistic. There are many ways to break down a game to help you increase your odds of winning. That's the key to your argument.

      Wheels can help increase your odds.

      Rotation statistics can help.

      Frequency charts, best pairs, hot and cold numbers, percentages (in the money) overall statistics in a certain time frame, repeating numbers, skip numbers, etc.

      All of these statistics can help you capture a win ... Gamblers Fallacy - no, its not fallacy.

      New York Pick 5 = In 2009 : FACT = 229 balls repeated = 62% .....  235 balls came out on a skip basis = 64%

      Number 03 repeated 11 times in 2009. Number 23 loves to come out on a two skip pattern and overall has repeated, or one skipped, or 2 skipped 43% of the time it is drawn.

      I can go on all day with statistics, and they do help me win. As for your garage buddy, I'm curious if he gambles at all.

      I hope this helps support your ideals.

      Rock

      Tomorrow's numbers are in Todays results!

        Liber8tor's avatar - Lottery-031.jpg
        Ft. Myers,Florida
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        December 17, 2009
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        Posted: July 10, 2010, 2:26 pm - IP Logged

        Yes.. I agree, Pumpi.   You would think that no matter how many tosses.. the results would be random?  That would be my feeling too.  But Statistics say that the more the tosses... the probabilty and results tend to come back to 50/50.

        We did discuss the physical factrors such as aluminum coins and humditiy and air friction and such things...  but my buddy says that for the sake of the argument.. they assume fair coins...  coins that are not altered in any way.  They even have machines that flip the coins so human hands do not enter into the equations.

        I'm still looking for those ramdom patterns.. I think they they are out there.

        "In Lotto... the trend is your friend.."

          Liber8tor's avatar - Lottery-031.jpg
          Ft. Myers,Florida
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          Posted: July 10, 2010, 2:42 pm - IP Logged

          Good info Rockwell.   Thanks for the post.   What is RNG?  Random Number Groups?

          I would have to agree that the more statistics you have... certain quirks or patterns appear. 

          I have had better luck using skips or time between appearances.  For instance.. in the Florida 5-36 Game... each number is expected to appear every 7 or 8 times.   This stat has usually held true.  If a number goes much over 10 skips.. it has gone cold.

          No, my buddy doesn't gamble.  His sticks by his math. I tried to ask him if there is a formula that can predict a head or a tail... he says standard deviation and Binomial is about the best.  But I have to believe that if NASA can put a man on the moon and figure that out.. there has to be a way?

          "In Lotto... the trend is your friend.."

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
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            Posted: July 10, 2010, 5:02 pm - IP Logged

            Good info Rockwell.   Thanks for the post.   What is RNG?  Random Number Groups?

            I would have to agree that the more statistics you have... certain quirks or patterns appear. 

            I have had better luck using skips or time between appearances.  For instance.. in the Florida 5-36 Game... each number is expected to appear every 7 or 8 times.   This stat has usually held true.  If a number goes much over 10 skips.. it has gone cold.

            No, my buddy doesn't gamble.  His sticks by his math. I tried to ask him if there is a formula that can predict a head or a tail... he says standard deviation and Binomial is about the best.  But I have to believe that if NASA can put a man on the moon and figure that out.. there has to be a way?

             What is RNG?  Random Number Groups?

            Random Number Generator - It's a computer program that picks numbers in an unpredictable manner and no patterns.  Some states are now using them to replace their ping pong balls lottery machines.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

              GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
              NY State
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              Posted: July 10, 2010, 7:29 pm - IP Logged

              Rockwell is spot on.  There absolutely are discernable patterns and trends.

              I keep an Excel spreadsheet of NY's Take5 (5/39) drawings.  It has a "rolling" 365 days of drawings on it. Each day, from the previous nights drawing I add the winning set of numbers, and delete the set of winners from the oldest drawing from a year ago.

              Here are a few things I've seen on that spreadsheet:

              75% of all drawings have a single digit number in the first position.

              82% of all drawings have a number in the thirties in the last position.

              I usually pick a single digit number and a number in the thirties on all of my play slips. Then I mix in hot or cold numbers, make sure I have a 3/2 odd/even split, and that the sum of all 5 numbers is in a range of 75 to 125. 

              Since April of 2009, I've won money 13 times. I've only had 3 numbers, never 4 or 5, and the total amount I won is maybe $260.  That's not much, but it's a better track record than some people I know that regularly play Take5 with "their" numbers or nothing but QP's. (I sometimes buy QP's too, as QP's do win the most jackpots.)

              About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!

                edge's avatar - waveform

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                Posted: July 10, 2010, 7:54 pm - IP Logged

                Rockwell is spot on.  There absolutely are discernable patterns and trends.

                I keep an Excel spreadsheet of NY's Take5 (5/39) drawings.  It has a "rolling" 365 days of drawings on it. Each day, from the previous nights drawing I add the winning set of numbers, and delete the set of winners from the oldest drawing from a year ago.

                Here are a few things I've seen on that spreadsheet:

                75% of all drawings have a single digit number in the first position.

                82% of all drawings have a number in the thirties in the last position.

                I usually pick a single digit number and a number in the thirties on all of my play slips. Then I mix in hot or cold numbers, make sure I have a 3/2 odd/even split, and that the sum of all 5 numbers is in a range of 75 to 125. 

                Since April of 2009, I've won money 13 times. I've only had 3 numbers, never 4 or 5, and the total amount I won is maybe $260.  That's not much, but it's a better track record than some people I know that regularly play Take5 with "their" numbers or nothing but QP's. (I sometimes buy QP's too, as QP's do win the most jackpots.)

                congratulations, nice discipline

                ab actu ad posse valet illatio - from the past one can infer the future

                  Liber8tor's avatar - Lottery-031.jpg
                  Ft. Myers,Florida
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                  Posted: July 10, 2010, 9:20 pm - IP Logged

                  I agree Give 5.   I think there are patterns.  Of course, everyone knows, that at least one number from last night's drawing  will repeat every other game.  The problem.. is to pick which number is going to repeat?

                  I can't afford to include all five numbers from the past game, because that makes a play ticket too expensive for me. 

                  I used to watch total sum and even/odd.. but I dont think that is so important anymore.  What kills you is when you get that cold number that comes in from left field after skipping 37 times.....

                  I hate when that happens..lol

                  So anyway, that's how I got into the argument with my Math Buddy. I told him I wanted a Probabilty formula that would help  me determine which of the previous 5 numbers were going to repeat... and that is how he got into the conversation  about coin flips and that the best odds I was going to get is 50/50.

                  So we tested the Binomia Probaility Formula.  It said that there was a .17 chance that a number would repeat.  Not very much of a chance.. so I didnt play the number... and of course.. it hit.

                  So that proved, to me at least.. that the Math formulas do not work. At least no better than plain old- fashioned intuition.

                  So... the dialog  continues...

                  "In Lotto... the trend is your friend.."

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                    NASHVILLE, TENN
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                    Posted: July 10, 2010, 9:32 pm - IP Logged

                    You and your neighbor are on two different levels.  You are discussing random events and he is discussing proven mathematical axioms. 

                    You are attempting to move beyond the proven.  Once you have made that decision, you find that nothing can be proven beyond a shadow of a doubt.  Your neighbor refuses to move into that world. 

                    We, on the other hand, will go where even Angels fear to tread.

                      Liber8tor's avatar - Lottery-031.jpg
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                      Posted: July 10, 2010, 9:44 pm - IP Logged

                      Yes.. I think you hit it Gas.  We are trying to compare apples and oranges.  But my buddy told me that the Binomial Formula is meant to predict a 2-sided coin toss... which is a random event.  Whcih should work for lotto.. but it doesn't.

                      But that gets back to the randomness of the early part of a coin flip..  the more flips you do... the results will  tend to even out to equal amouts of Head/Tails. 

                      I have noticed that  is similar with Lotto numbers.. the further Number of draws you go back.. the "Hotness" of a number will tend to flatten out.

                      Say , for instance... # 6 is on a tear for the last 20 games..  it may have  even hit 10 times out of  the last 20 games.  But  if you go back 100 games or  500 games... #6 will fall in line and become just like the other numbers.

                      Not very scientific I'm afraid... but I think it works out that way.

                      "In Lotto... the trend is your friend.."

                        GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
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                        Posted: July 10, 2010, 10:10 pm - IP Logged

                        congratulations, nice discipline

                        Thanks for the compliment. 

                        I think I should add a few things to what I wrote earlier.  First, I track Take5 numbers because I think they're fascinating and I enjoy doing it.  I know.  I'm weird.... 

                        Secondly, I only play what I think I can afford to lose and no more. That's maybe 10 to 15 bucks a week.  That's because I know the lottery is a sucker bet.  That said, there have been quite a few "suckers" that are very glad they bought a ticket. I see no reason why I couldn't or shouldn't be a "sucker" just like them!  Because the odds of winning a jackpot are so long, I'm just trying to play as "smartly" as I can. If there is such a thing as "playing smartly".   

                        Third, I don't feel like I have to win a jackpot.  Would I like to win a jackpot?  Sure I would!  Winning a jackpot is the number one reason why I'm playing!  BTW, Take5 jackpots are usually less than 100K, and  are typically split by multiple winners, so I know I'm not going to get rich if I do get very lucky. Take5's lower tier prizes do nothing for me but keep me comming back to buy more tickets. 

                        Do systems work or should I play QP's?  I don't know if systems work or not, so I play both my own picks and QP's. It aint like I'm too proud to accept a jackpot if I won one with a QP.  Am I superstitious?  Yup, I am.  I got a little routine I go through when I buy my tickets.  Also, whenever I'm in Manhattan, I buy a ticket without fail!  The most winners in NY State are sold in the New York metropolitan area.  That's merely a function of the fact the most tickets are sold there, so when in Rome, I do as the Romans do! 

                        So maybe some day........................

                        About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!

                          Rockwell's avatar - redordead
                          New York
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                          Posted: July 10, 2010, 10:14 pm - IP Logged

                          RNG = Random Number Generator. Simply random drawings. Every day a draw. Every day is random.

                          When I suspect a Ball will repeat, sometimes an angle with the Partial Quick Pick can easily remedy your decisions. For example: Number 03 has 11 repeats last year. If its drawn, then the following drawing I select 03 with the QP selected on every game. It's a shot when you have no idea what the best pairs are.

                          But, if Ball 03 has a best pair = number 19 then I play 03, 19 on every game Partial Quick Pick. Let the computer RNG the remaining 3 balls on every game.

                          It works, if the 03 repeats your squeezing your tickets :)

                          Tomorrow's numbers are in Todays results!

                            LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
                            Tx
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                            Posted: July 10, 2010, 10:20 pm - IP Logged

                            I guess that some or many or those who know too much Math are handicapped by it lottery prediction wise.

                            Of course, to them there is something called "random" that should tell enough about them, that is how much they really know (Don't know).

                            BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

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                              Rockwell's avatar - redordead
                              New York
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                              Posted: July 10, 2010, 10:21 pm - IP Logged

                              GIVE FIVE - Not weird at all. I've been doing it since the inception of the Take 5 game. Makes me Krazy!

                               

                              But seriously, the facts remain that trends / patterns / cycles exist because I track them, I use them, I win using Them. Partial Quick Picks is just a simple alternative. If Number 23 comes out tonight, I win ! Maybe not Jackpot, but minimum 3 numbers...you betcha.

                              Tomorrow's numbers are in Todays results!