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Define A System That Works...

Topic closed. 18 replies. Last post 6 years ago by jimmy4164.

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savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
adelaide sa
Australia
Member #37136
April 11, 2006
3301 Posts
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Posted: July 31, 2010, 1:32 am - IP Logged

a system where you pay out less than $1, for every dollar brought in? umm something like a casino table game or a lottery .

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    United States
    Member #93947
    July 10, 2010
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    Posted: July 31, 2010, 1:46 am - IP Logged

    Yes.

    A working system gives you a statistical advantage over house odds. In the duration of play if you average a win(s) more often than what is expected, you have a system. Take a Box bet for P3. Odds are 1:166 for a str8 set. If you win more than once in 166 plays (bets) you beat the odds.

    Same goes for the big games, even if you jackpot only once and beat the odds.

    A working system takes away from the house advantage and puts it in your pocket. They call it cheating when you beat the odds and do not attribute it to luck. Luck seems to have it's defined limits. They are called probable events: chicken dinner.Banana

    DD

    This needs clarification...

    "Take a Box bet for P3. Odds are 1:166 for a str8 set. If you win more than once in 166 plays (bets) you beat the odds."

    The odds for a Straight win are 1:1000.  The odds for a Box win are 1:166.  ( 1000/6 )

    However, in PA a winning $1 Box ticket only pays $80.00, so you must do some SERIOUS  selecting, or be extremely LUCKY to make money in this game over time.   80-166 equals an $86 LOSS over 166 $1 plays.  In PA, you must win more than 2 Box bets in 166 plays to beat the odds.  Sorry for the bad news.  (Please don't shoot the messenger!)

    --Jimmy

    P.S.  A winning $1 Straight Pick only pays $500 in PA, and you have one chance in 1000 to win it.

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      United States
      Member #79373
      August 30, 2009
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      Posted: July 31, 2010, 2:10 am - IP Logged

      right on Jordans!


        United States
        Member #93947
        July 10, 2010
        2180 Posts
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        Posted: August 1, 2010, 1:20 am - IP Logged

        This needs clarification...

        "Take a Box bet for P3. Odds are 1:166 for a str8 set. If you win more than once in 166 plays (bets) you beat the odds."

        The odds for a Straight win are 1:1000.  The odds for a Box win are 1:166.  ( 1000/6 )

        However, in PA a winning $1 Box ticket only pays $80.00, so you must do some SERIOUS  selecting, or be extremely LUCKY to make money in this game over time.   80-166 equals an $86 LOSS over 166 $1 plays.  In PA, you must win more than 2 Box bets in 166 plays to beat the odds.  Sorry for the bad news.  (Please don't shoot the messenger!)

        --Jimmy

        P.S.  A winning $1 Straight Pick only pays $500 in PA, and you have one chance in 1000 to win it.

        My clarification needs clarification...

        Above, I should have said, "In PA, you must win more than 2 Box bets in 166 to come out ahead, dollarwise."  Beating odds and winning money are not the same thing.  The Expected Value of a wager is the Probability of Winning multipled by the Payoff if you Win.

        EV = P(WIN) * Payoff