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Does anyone here actually turn a profit in the long run?

Topic closed. 69 replies. Last post 6 years ago by corius$1918!.

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Luminus's avatar - ouskuu

United States
Member #51269
April 3, 2007
529 Posts
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Posted: September 11, 2010, 2:11 pm - IP Logged

Think about it.  For all the small winnings you get, are you allowing that excitement to cloud your judgement? Have you even bothered doing a comparison study on how much you've spent in a month or year compared to how much money you've won?  If not, I think it's time to run an experiment and get real answers.  No more confirmation biases.

If you are turning a profit, how much profit are we talking about?  $5, $10, $50 per game?  Is it even worth all the effort it takes you to run your system?

    Luminus's avatar - ouskuu

    United States
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    Posted: September 11, 2010, 2:20 pm - IP Logged

    For instance, I just went into the Predictions forum and looked at yesterday's winners.  I chose someone who predicted some numbers for the NY Pick 10.  That person had 10 winning games, for $2 each.  So $20 was won. Yay, right?  Wrong.  I checked how much that person "spent" and it was a whopping $50.  So it's a false win.

    I just checked another "winning" predictors numbers.  Again, $50 was spent on the NY Pick 10, but only $22 was won (11 lines of winning numbers).

    Checked another one.  $50 spent on NY Numbers.  $40 was won.


      United States
      Member #93947
      July 10, 2010
      2180 Posts
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      Posted: September 11, 2010, 5:13 pm - IP Logged

      For instance, I just went into the Predictions forum and looked at yesterday's winners.  I chose someone who predicted some numbers for the NY Pick 10.  That person had 10 winning games, for $2 each.  So $20 was won. Yay, right?  Wrong.  I checked how much that person "spent" and it was a whopping $50.  So it's a false win.

      I just checked another "winning" predictors numbers.  Again, $50 was spent on the NY Pick 10, but only $22 was won (11 lines of winning numbers).

      Checked another one.  $50 spent on NY Numbers.  $40 was won.

      Luminus,

      Finally!  Someone is observing what I have been trying to show with backtests!  Good for you!

      But the truth you have discovered is not a reason to avoid the lottery.  Your (Costs-Wins) should be viewed as nothing more than the price you must pay for your chances to win the large jackpots.  The lotteries who pay off the winners must get the money from somewhere!  Smiley

      Unfortunately, there are no big jackpots to be won in most Pick3 games.

      --Jimmy4164

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
        United States
        Member #9
        March 24, 2001
        19818 Posts
        Online
        Posted: September 11, 2010, 7:05 pm - IP Logged

        For instance, I just went into the Predictions forum and looked at yesterday's winners.  I chose someone who predicted some numbers for the NY Pick 10.  That person had 10 winning games, for $2 each.  So $20 was won. Yay, right?  Wrong.  I checked how much that person "spent" and it was a whopping $50.  So it's a false win.

        I just checked another "winning" predictors numbers.  Again, $50 was spent on the NY Pick 10, but only $22 was won (11 lines of winning numbers).

        Checked another one.  $50 spent on NY Numbers.  $40 was won.

        If you are following the predictions of particular players, you can also look up their overall win / lose records for the last thirty days and life time by hits and winnings.

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

          Luminus's avatar - ouskuu

          United States
          Member #51269
          April 3, 2007
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          Posted: September 11, 2010, 8:09 pm - IP Logged

          If you are following the predictions of particular players, you can also look up their overall win / lose records for the last thirty days and life time by hits and winnings.

          I have.  You're on the top 10 Highest Lifetime Prize Ratio list with $18,630 wins. The problem is, the amount of loses you wrack up will most likely be too discouraging for you to keep going long enough to turn a profit.  Your wagers were $13,788.  Your profit was $4,842.  What year did you start posting predictions, again?  Not a single person has a jackpot nor a profit larger than a few thousand dollars.

          I mean, if you've spent $500 in a month and only netted $100, that's pretty discouraging.  Your ability to pay bills would suffer big time, as well.  Remember, these guys are playing every day in multiple states.

          In the last 30 days, dbello, spent $4,023 and won $6,000.  Who has thousands of dollars of disposable money to be taking wild chances like that and for so little profit?  You might as well get a second job.

           

          jimmy4164,

          I'm not avoiding the lottery.  I'm just making a point.  If one is going to play the lottery, they need to be aware of issues like this.

            CutlassBob's avatar - Sphere animated2.gif
            Harrison Township Michigan
            United States
            Member #90088
            April 21, 2010
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            Posted: September 11, 2010, 8:29 pm - IP Logged

            I look at it month to month, overall since i started playing, not sure. But i'm sure in 2009 i was at a major loss, playing too many scratch-off tickets. This year i've cut my scratches down to a whim. So far i've had a decent year.

            Mind you i do not play all my predictions. That is a cool aspect of this website.

            In Jan i made $666.00

            Feb i lost 400.00

            In March won $1083.00

            In April i made $9497.00

            In May, June & July i lost $1000.00

            August i was up $2500.00

            So far in Sept i'm up over $900.00.

            All this playing daily 3 and 4 in Michigan.

            I'll know more at the end of the year when i count my win's and losses.

            Stay tuned for the big picture in January 2011.

            Cutla$$Bob

             "You can't handle the truth!" Nicholson.


              United States
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              June 1, 2009
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              Posted: September 11, 2010, 9:08 pm - IP Logged

              I just did the workout from the last year till today. I'm $17.28 ahead of the game.

              17.28 divided by 22 years, thats 8,030 days.

              It comes to 0.00021519  per day profit.

              Not bad.....

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                United States
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                July 18, 2010
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                Posted: September 12, 2010, 12:38 am - IP Logged

                Thats great!  I'm still learning and losing :((

                 

                Care to share your ways?

                  Luminus's avatar - ouskuu

                  United States
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                  Posted: September 12, 2010, 12:40 am - IP Logged

                  You guys aren't ahead by much.  That's the problem.  Like I said, you're better off getting a second job.

                    stephi's avatar - winifrid
                    rural lowcountry, south carolina
                    United States
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                    February 2, 2006
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                    Posted: September 12, 2010, 12:57 am - IP Logged

                    I haven't seen anyone except one or 2 persons state on this site that they are a professional gambler. I play jackpot games only and yeah i know its lost money but if I don't play i  lose the opportunity to one day change my life for the better.

                      Luminus's avatar - ouskuu

                      United States
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                      April 3, 2007
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                      Posted: September 12, 2010, 1:41 am - IP Logged

                      I haven't seen anyone except one or 2 persons state on this site that they are a professional gambler. I play jackpot games only and yeah i know its lost money but if I don't play i  lose the opportunity to one day change my life for the better.

                      Well, if you're gonna play only jackpot games, then it's not about a profit.  It's about a dream.

                        aquariuslottery's avatar - AquariusLotteryLogo
                        Vancouver BC
                        Canada
                        Member #96078
                        August 22, 2010
                        110 Posts
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                        Posted: September 12, 2010, 2:15 am - IP Logged

                        Hi,

                        Before you decide to play any lottery on regular and continuing basis you should set up a goal and targets - what do you want to achieve and how to achieve it.

                        Here is my example. I decided to play Lotto 649 with one main objective - to win a big one one day (preferably the Big Jack but the 2nd prize would also make me happy). To achieve this will cost time, effort and money. While I have 1st & 2nd readily available the 3rd is a problem. So I try to achieve my goal at the MINIMUM expense. I don't expect to make a profit on playing the lottery - until the Big One comes around. For me that's acceptable risk and investment. But I do everything I can to maximize small wins on the way to reduce the cost. That is my target and I can achieve it.

                        No lottery is ever designed to make profits for players. Some players will win big, the great majority will remain loosers. That's a fact of playing any lottery. If you want to make a constant (or at least frequent) profit on something pick appropriate tools to achieve it - like investing in stocks, real estate etc. Lottery is not an appropriate tool for that.

                        If you cannot take or afford a loss do not play a lottery.

                        Regards

                          Luminus's avatar - ouskuu

                          United States
                          Member #51269
                          April 3, 2007
                          529 Posts
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                          Posted: September 12, 2010, 2:19 am - IP Logged

                          Hi,

                          Before you decide to play any lottery on regular and continuing basis you should set up a goal and targets - what do you want to achieve and how to achieve it.

                          Here is my example. I decided to play Lotto 649 with one main objective - to win a big one one day (preferably the Big Jack but the 2nd prize would also make me happy). To achieve this will cost time, effort and money. While I have 1st & 2nd readily available the 3rd is a problem. So I try to achieve my goal at the MINIMUM expense. I don't expect to make a profit on playing the lottery - until the Big One comes around. For me that's acceptable risk and investment. But I do everything I can to maximize small wins on the way to reduce the cost. That is my target and I can achieve it.

                          No lottery is ever designed to make profits for players. Some players will win big, the great majority will remain loosers. That's a fact of playing any lottery. If you want to make a constant (or at least frequent) profit on something pick appropriate tools to achieve it - like investing in stocks, real estate etc. Lottery is not an appropriate tool for that.

                          If you cannot take or afford a loss do not play a lottery.

                          Regards

                          I think you've missed the point.  There are a bunch of people on here using strategies to defeat the lottery.  The goal is to turn a profit, not break even.  And while we are all chasing the Big One, I don't think many of us want to end up thousands of dollars in the hole.


                            United States
                            Member #93947
                            July 10, 2010
                            2180 Posts
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                            Posted: September 12, 2010, 9:11 am - IP Logged

                            Hi,

                            Before you decide to play any lottery on regular and continuing basis you should set up a goal and targets - what do you want to achieve and how to achieve it.

                            Here is my example. I decided to play Lotto 649 with one main objective - to win a big one one day (preferably the Big Jack but the 2nd prize would also make me happy). To achieve this will cost time, effort and money. While I have 1st & 2nd readily available the 3rd is a problem. So I try to achieve my goal at the MINIMUM expense. I don't expect to make a profit on playing the lottery - until the Big One comes around. For me that's acceptable risk and investment. But I do everything I can to maximize small wins on the way to reduce the cost. That is my target and I can achieve it.

                            No lottery is ever designed to make profits for players. Some players will win big, the great majority will remain loosers. That's a fact of playing any lottery. If you want to make a constant (or at least frequent) profit on something pick appropriate tools to achieve it - like investing in stocks, real estate etc. Lottery is not an appropriate tool for that.

                            If you cannot take or afford a loss do not play a lottery.

                            Regards

                            Luminus,

                            Although I agree with a lot of your recent sentiment here, you appear to be hedging when you say,

                            "I think you've missed the point.  There are a bunch of people on here using strategies to defeat the lottery.  The goal is to turn a profit, not break even.  And while we are all chasing the Big One, I don't think many of us want to end up thousands of dollars in the hole."

                            If you are still hopefull that you can turn a consistent profit while waiting for a big hit, you are MOST LIKELY going to fail.  I say "most likely" because as RJOh likes to point out, there are examples of people showing modest profits over reasonable periods of time.  You can expect to see this in random processes like these lotteries.  It's the nature of randomness.  However, UNLESS you have inside information from a corrupt administrator of a computerized results game, you can only hope to be one of the winners if you are LUCKY enough to find yourself out in the "tails" of a distribution which has a MEAN of a 50% loss!

                            I think aquariuslottery is giving you the best advice above.

                            --Jimmy4164

                              Luminus's avatar - ouskuu

                              United States
                              Member #51269
                              April 3, 2007
                              529 Posts
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                              Posted: September 12, 2010, 9:34 am - IP Logged

                              Luminus,

                              Although I agree with a lot of your recent sentiment here, you appear to be hedging when you say,

                              "I think you've missed the point.  There are a bunch of people on here using strategies to defeat the lottery.  The goal is to turn a profit, not break even.  And while we are all chasing the Big One, I don't think many of us want to end up thousands of dollars in the hole."

                              If you are still hopefull that you can turn a consistent profit while waiting for a big hit, you are MOST LIKELY going to fail.  I say "most likely" because as RJOh likes to point out, there are examples of people showing modest profits over reasonable periods of time.  You can expect to see this in random processes like these lotteries.  It's the nature of randomness.  However, UNLESS you have inside information from a corrupt administrator of a computerized results game, you can only hope to be one of the winners if you are LUCKY enough to find yourself out in the "tails" of a distribution which has a MEAN of a 50% loss!

                              I think aquariuslottery is giving you the best advice above.

                              --Jimmy4164

                              I'm NOT hopeful that I can turn a consistent profit.  I don't think anyone can.  That's why I created this thread.